Preview 2022 Round 13 Carlton vs Essendon Friday June 10 7:50PM @ MCG - Team Post #1538

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Sidebottom got out the back of every Carlton player who was supposed to be marking him - he is their flanking link player- who was on him ?- it wasn't Saad. Nothing happened unless it transitioned through Sidebottom and was repeated 4-5 X during the game - the same plays.

I think our defence was all over the place with JW out,hard to fix on the fly.


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No durdin
No Hayes for the person who asked

Couldn't do that to them 1st up.

All those red heads in 1 arena at the same time, frightening even as a spectator. I just don't get how they can't see the clash it has with the red sash...!

At the other red head brigade, at least the cats matched the red with a hoop of navy and white...!








*Disclaimer - I have many redheads in my family and they all support either Essendon or Geelong and they all agree....:p
 
I have, over the past 3-4 years, developed a theory of AFL. I call it the 'minimum pass' theory of success.

Every traditional club in the AFL has opposition that they dislike and wish to defeat more than any other opponent. There are two kinds of relationship here; a traditional rivalry (Carlton-Collingwood, Hawthorn-Geelong; you can even push Sydney-WC in there for a more recent version, although it doesn't really hold true for the entire time) and a one-sided dislike. St Kilda, for example, really hate us; they need to beat us more than they need to beat other opposition. The interstate sides are an interesting case as far as this goes; they each have their key opposition in their home state, but in WC's case - because Fremantle hasn't been terribly good a lot of the time - they also have the Perth mindset towards the East Coast. It's enough for them to beat more eastern state sides to fulfil this need.

The key here is that only a single club can win the premiership every year, so teams and fanbases need to be able to define what they consider to be a 'minimum pass', and for any side that involves these rivalries or relationships. For Richmond to have a pass mark, they need to beat us in their encounters; if they make finals it helps, but you can clearly see in 2013 how making finals and coming 5th almost wasn't enough to keep fan pressure from coming to bear in their club. Every club needs, in the absence of other success, to hit enough 'pass' victories in order to keep themselves from turmoil long term; some regimes - Hawthorn, Essendon, for example - are less able to be externally influenced after a prolonged time at the base of the ladder, where a club like us has traditionally always been a bad loss to Essendon away from sacking the coach.

On to why this is relevant to this weekend...

Essendon are on their knees. The new coaches are not working as they did last year; their list is riddled with injuries (although they're getting a few back this week) and their demographic is skewed in terms of their good players to being a little too old and young. They've talent, but a weird mixture of talent in that it's concentrated on certain different types; flankers, hybrid KPP's, half forwards, mid-sized defenders. The off-field is awful and getting worse; the drugs scandal still hangs over them and has been brought up anew this week, courtesy of Sheedy. They're the middle of a review, and fully in a similar situation to what we were last season towards the end.

But their 'minimum pass' every year is against us. We represent calming the restive natives. Beat us, and they will relax, if only for a week or two. They get us - when we're in the eight, equal third, but vulnerable - all of a sudden there's a different complexion on their season.

Look at Collingwood. Before they beat us, their season was as an also-ran. They had a bunch of talent and had performed well, but had struggled to convert winning positions into wins. They had talented youth that struggled to put it on the park for 4 quarters. Drums weren't beating for the coach, but there was a sense of unsettlement at Collingwood, ruminating below the surface. After they beat us, things looked significantly better, and now they're only a game or so from the top 8; both the points and the moral victory represent validation of method for the coach and the hierarchy within the club.

All of this is to say that they're going to come at us. They have more incentive than just victory; each of their players will, arguably, be playing for their list position, their coaches for their jobs. Every position under the purview of the review is potentially under threat, should they fail this week; if they succeed, they arguably have covered their arses sufficiently for the time being. Like no other week - no other time - they need to beat us. It's got the weight of their fanbase sitting on them, driving them forth.

Now, this could be a double-edged sword. Their game relies on fast, precise ball movement; pressure them around the ball and on exit of back 50, and you'll get turnovers, and if there's no pressure on the playing group this week there never will be. We're strong through the middle, and if the players coming in - welcome back, Caleb - have strong performances we're every chance to win. Not a player on their list can hold Charlie for an entire match. We should, in theory, dominate contested ball, and thus possession and inside 50's. We'll lose the hitouts, but if we set up to rove to Draper we should be okay.

But we should realise that they will come for us as they've not for an opponent this year. We will be the scapegoat for all their failings. We need to be aware of this, and be ready to bury them at the best they've been this year.

Carlton by four goals.
By that measure, * are a massive failure then. Beaten by us 5 out of the last 6 years. Even in our darkest moment, in 2018, we beat them.
 

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