Resource 2022 Stats thread

[RussellEbertHandball]

From Stats Insider.

On Friday night Adelaide went I50 43 times, had 26 shots on goal kicked 15.6 non were rushed so once again almost 50% of I50s our oppo scored.

 

[Port85]

None of our backs (keys or smalls) feature in the top 20 for their position in player ratings.

Allir (obviously) would be there and Jonas was in 2021 but has dropped off in impact despite being required to step up.

None of our smalls were in the top 20 for their position in 2021.

The system has collapsed and the cattle isn’t great individually down back, at least on the only statistical metrics we have.

We’re in deep poop down there.

 

[Mikey13G]

Champion Data stats about teams with 0-3 starts in AFL seasons.

0-3 START

7/60 have made top-eight (12 per cent), 2/60 have made top-four (3 per cent)

Current sides 0-3: Port Adelaide, West Coast, Essendon

0-4 START

1/33 have made top-eight (3 per cent), 0/33 have made top-four (0 per cent)

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

AFLxScore guy explains how he calculates the score and acknowledges he

@AFLxScore is a Twitter Bot about to go into operation that will automatically post expected scores (xScore) of live scoring shots in the AFL mens competition. This will hopefully help footy followers get an idea of how skillful/lucky (or the opposite) each individual shot was. A team’s total xScore (vs actual score) gives an idea of seized or missed opportunities.

And he acknowledges the work done by Robert Younger on his Figuring Footy site in 2016. Port employed Younger in October 2017 and he left us in October 2019 and went and worked with Melbourne after the Dees sold their first pokies venue for $10+mil in 2019 and went and invested in their footy department and their analytics. They sold their 2nd pokies venue just before their flag win last year for $23.7mil.

Hasn’t this been done before?​

Yes, it has! The methodology I use is heavily influenced by Robert’s. I’m not doing anything particularly new here, I am just optimising this for live calculations using the best publicly available data, and automatically posting it to a Twitter account.

 

[JakeNeadeFan]

 

[tribey]

I mean, you’ve got a feeling it’s bad (a bit like our home record under lights), but when you see it in cold text like that it positively amazes.

 

[Jojay]

Champion Data stats about teams with 0-3 starts in AFL seasons.

0-3 START

7/60 have made top-eight (12 per cent), 2/60 have made top-four (3 per cent)

Current sides 0-3: Port Adelaide, West Coast, Essendon

0-4 START

1/33 have made top-eight (3 per cent), 0/33 have made top-four (0 per cent)

Jeez based on that, we're pretty much playing an elimination final tomorrow

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I mean, you’ve got a feeling it’s bad (a bit like our home record under lights), but when you see it in cold text like that it positively amazes.

tribey can you put that under lights at AO stat in here. I know you posted it somewhere, but I want to keep track of it. Thanks in advance.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Champion Data stats about teams with 0-3 starts in AFL seasons.

0-3 START

7/60 have made top-eight (12 per cent), 2/60 have made top-four (3 per cent)

Current sides 0-3: Port Adelaide, West Coast, Essendon

0-4 START

1/33 have made top-eight (3 per cent), 0/33 have made top-four (0 per cent)

So given its top 8 that means since 1994. North were 0-4 in 1975 and won the flag.

Sydney is the 0-4 side and they were 0-6 in 2017, shit load of injuries, and ended up 14-8 and 6th and only losses after Rd 6 was to the Hawks by a goal both times, Rd 10 by 1.0 The Roughead 55m goal with about 30 seconds to go and Rd 19 by 1.0 (thought one of them was by 6 behinds).

They finished 6th, thumped Essendon in the EF, then were thumped by Geelong in the SF.

 

[tribey]

tribey can you put that under lights at AO stat in here. I know you posted it somewhere, but I want to keep track of it. Thanks in advance.

Port in night games (game start 6-9pm) at Adelaide Oval:

2014: 2-2-0
2015: 3-2-0 (5-4-0)
2016: 2-4-0 (7-8-0)
2017: 3-3-0 (10-11-0)
2018: 3-2-0 (13-13-0)
2019: 2-3-0 (15-16-0)
2020: 3-2-0 (18-18-0)
2021: 5-4-0 (23-22-0)
2022: 0-3-0 (23-25-0)

 

[Mikey13G]

Jeez based on that, we're pretty much playing an elimination final tomorrow

It pretty much is!

Sydney is an exception that made a semi final from 0-6 in 2017 after playing in the Grand Final in 2016. The Bulldogs won that 2016 Grand Final coming from 7th, but generally it's always top 4 teams with the double chance that win Premierships. It's going to be really difficult making the top 4 with an 0-4 start!

 

[Alberton Proud]

It pretty much is!

Sydney is an exception that made a semi final from 0-6 in 2017 after playing in the Grand Final in 2016. The Bulldogs won that 2016 Grand Final coming from 7th, but generally it's always top 4 teams with the double chance that win Premierships. It's going to be really difficult making the top 4 with an 0-4 start!

We've got a long way to go before we're as good as Sydney

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

It pretty much is!

Sydney is an exception that made a semi final from 0-6 in 2017 after playing in the Grand Final in 2016. The Bulldogs won that 2016 Grand Final coming from 7th, but generally it's always top 4 teams with the double chance that win Premierships. It's going to be really difficult making the top 4 with an 0-4 start!

2016 was an unusual season for 2 reasons.

1. First year of the finals bye.

2. There was only 1 game difference between 1st and 7th after 21 games. 4 teams had won 16 games and 3 had won 15. Only time that sort of ladder has ever been produced with 1 game to go.

Hawks were 4th with 119% with 16 wins and WB 7th with 15 wins and 118%.

Because of the way the games were scheduled, WB played the last game of the round, and the Hawks won a thriller Rd 23 game by 1 pt, which finished half time of WC 6th v WB 7th game at Subi, WB had picked up 2 or 3 bad injuries and shut up shop at half time.

Nobody else from outside the top 3 has won a flag since the current finals system started in 2000.

 

[TeeKray]

I mean, you’ve got a feeling it’s bad (a bit like our home record under lights), but when you see it in cold text like that it positively amazes.

I think I was the first one to throw the night game thing out there on this forum ... and I have to say at the time I had not at all looked into or even thought about the stats to back it up, it was purely just a feeling based on my mind's eye envisaging the bulk of the disastrous defeats at AO to be under lights.

 

[Andre]

2016 was an unusual season for 2 reasons.

1. First year of the finals bye.

2. There was only 1 game difference between 1st and 7th after 21 games. 4 teams had won 16 games and 3 had won 15. Only time that sort of ladder has ever been produced with 1 game to go.

Hawks were 4th with 119% with 16 wins and WB 7th with 15 wins and 118%.

Because of the way the games were scheduled, WB played the last game of the round, and the Hawks won a thriller Rd 23 game by 1 pt, which finished half time of WC 6th v WB 7th game at Subi, WB had picked up 2 or 3 bad injuries and shut up shop at half time.

Nobody else from outside the top 3 has won a flag since the current finals system started in 2000.

Not to mention the biggest helping hand from umpires in the history of the AFL/VFL. 2016 just can't be used as any guide for anything.

 

[Andre]

Port in night games (game start 6-9pm) at Adelaide Oval:

2014: 2-2-0
2015: 3-2-0 (5-4-0)
2016: 2-4-0 (7-8-0)
2017: 3-3-0 (10-11-0)
2018: 3-2-0 (13-13-0)
2019: 2-3-0 (15-16-0)
2020: 3-2-0 (18-18-0)
2021: 5-4-0 (23-22-0)
2022: 0-2-0 (23-24-0)

I'm far from wanting to forgive any of our shitty records, but I'd be interested in that by top 8 vs. outside the 8. We seem to have had more games against decent sides as night games, with shitty sides we've been given the 'give Port the crappy timeslot against a side with no supporters' Sunday afternoon.

 

[PortWTF]

Work harder. Obviously.

 

[bomberclifford]

There's histry heeere in the making. Pawpowa!

 

[tribey]

I'm far from wanting to forgive any of our shitty records, but I'd be interested in that by top 8 vs. outside the 8. We seem to have had more games against decent sides as night games, with shitty sides we've been given the 'give Port the crappy timeslot against a side with no supporters' Sunday afternoon.

1. R10 2014: Hawthorn (EOY: 2nd/) W 14
2. R16 2014: Essendon (7th) L 2
3. R20 2014: Sydney (1st/) L 26
4. R22 2014: Carlton (13th) W 103
5. R02 2015: Sydney (4th) L 48
6. R04 2015: Hawthorn (3rd/) W 8
7. R10 2015: Bulldogs (6th) W 38
8. R11 2015: Geelong (10th) L 23
9. R15 2015: Collingwood (12th) W 3
10. R03 2016: Essendon (18th) W 61
11. R05 2016: Geelong (2nd) L 48
12. R15 2016: Richmond (13th) W 38
13. R16 2016: Hawthorn (3rd) L 22
14. R21 2016: Melbourne (11th) L 40
15. R22 2016: Adelaide (5th) L 15
16. R03 2017: Adelaide (1st/) L 17
17. R05 2017: Carlton (16th) W 90
18. R11 2017: Hawthorn (12th) W 51
19. R15 2017: Richmond (3rd/) L 13
20. R23 2017: Gold Coast (17th) W 115
21. REF 2017: West Coast (8th) L 2
22. R05 2018: Geelong (8th) L 34
23. R12 2018: Richmond (1st/) W 14
24. R13 2018: Bulldogs (13th) W 57
25. R14 2018: Melbourne (5th) W 10
26. R23 2018: Essendon (11th) L 22
27. R06 2019: North Melb (12th) W 16
28. R08 2019: Adelaide (11th) L 20
29. R14 2019: Geelong (1st/) W 11
30. R15 2019: Bulldogs (7th) L 25
31. R19 2019: GWS (6th/) L 1
32. R02 2020: Adelaide (18th) W 75
33. R08 2020: St Kilda (6th) L 29
34. R10 2020: Bulldogs (7th) W 13
35. RQF 2020: Geelong (4th/) W 16
36. RPF 2020: Richmond (3rd/) L 6
37. R04 2021: Richmond (12th) W 2
38. R06 2021: St Kilda (10th) W 54
39. R08 2021: Adelaide (15th) W 49
40. R09 2021: Bulldogs (5th/) L 19
41. R13 2021: Geelong (3rd) L 21
42. R17 2021: Melbourne (1st/) L 31
43. R21 2021: Adelaide (15th) W 4
44. RQF 2021: Geelong (3rd) W 43
45. RPF 2021: Bulldogs (5th/) L 71
46. R02 2022: Hawthorn (?) L 64
47. R03 2022: Adelaide (?) L 4
48. R04 2022: Melbourne (?) L 32

Versus Top-8: 9-18
Versus Bottom-10: 14-4
Versus Yet To Be Determined: 0-3

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Port in night games (game start 6-9pm) at Adelaide Oval:

2014: 2-2-0
2015: 3-2-0 (5-4-0)
2016: 2-4-0 (7-8-0)
2017: 3-3-0 (10-11-0)
2018: 3-2-0 (13-13-0)
2019: 2-3-0 (15-16-0)
2020: 3-2-0 (18-18-0)
2021: 5-4-0 (23-22-0)
2022: 0-2-0 (23-24-0)

Your post made me look at our record in other time slots.

Night 23-24
Twlgt 23-12
Day.. 14-3
---------------
Total 60-39

We have asked for night and twilight games. Looks like we can't handle the big stage of Friday night and Saturday night. NTUA and our gameday stuff probably make us attractive for night games. Nick Riewoldt last year said our games at AO are box office.

We have lucked out only had 3 BS Sunday 12.40pm games.

Edit
Thursday night 4-3
Friday night 9-4
Sunday night 1-0
Monday night 1-0
Saturday night 8-17

Day games

Rnd

T

Opponent

Scoring

F

Scoring

A

R

M

W-D-L

Venue

Crowd

Date

R14

H

Sydney

4.3 8.3 8.4 11.7

73​

3.1 3.1 5.4 7.5

47​

W

26​

49-0-32

Adelaide Oval

11801​

Sat 29-Aug-2020 1:15 PM

R21

H

Sydney

4.4 7.7 12.10 15.13

103​

3.4 4.10 7.12 7.14

56​

W

47​

43-0-31

Adelaide Oval

29568​

Sat 10-Aug-2019 1:40 PM

R9

H

Gold Coast

3.1 6.3 9.9 13.11

89​

4.4 6.7 7.8 7.9

51​

W

38​

40-0-28

Adelaide Oval

26129​

Sun 19-May-2019 12:40 PM

R3

H

Brisbane Lions

4.6 7.7 14.8 14.13

97​

4.0 9.6 11.8 14.8

92​

W

5​

32-0-21

Adelaide Oval

36363​

Sat 07-Apr-2018 1:15 PM

R17

H

North Melbourne

8.1 11.4 14.9 19.13

127​

2.0 5.3 6.5 8.9

57​

W

70​

27-0-19

Adelaide Oval

34138​

Sat 15-Jul-2017 1:40 PM

R12

H

Western Bulldogs

4.3 6.7 11.9 14.13

97​

6.1 7.3 10.6 15.10

100​

L

-3​

21-0-12

Adelaide Oval

40096​

Sat 11-Jun-2016 1:10 PM

R2

A

Adelaide

1.2 4.8 7.12 11.20

86​

6.4 13.5 19.7 22.12

144​

L

-58​

19-0-9

Adelaide Oval

50555​

Sat 02-Apr-2016 1:15 PM

R1

H

St Kilda

4.1 9.2 13.9 20.13

133​

4.4 9.8 14.9 15.10

100​

W

33​

19-0-8

Adelaide Oval

42896​

Sun 27-Mar-2016 2:50 PM

R23

H

Fremantle

1.3 9.4 13.8 18.14

122​

4.4 4.4 7.4 8.5

53​

W

69​

18-0-8

Adelaide Oval

37922​

Sat 05-Sep-2015 3:20 PM

R18

H

St Kilda

4.5 8.5 12.7 17.10

112​

1.4 3.10 4.12 6.13

49​

W

63​

16-0-8

Adelaide Oval

35977​

Sun 02-Aug-2015 12:40 PM

R16

H

Adelaide Phil Walsh game

3.4 8.4 13.6 17.11

113​

6.1 11.3 18.6 18.8

116​

L

-3​

15-0-8

Adelaide Oval

53518​

Sun 19-Jul-2015 2:50 PM

EF

F

Richmond

8.1 14.5 19.8 20.12

132​

1.1 3.2 6.5 11.9

75​

W

57​

11-0-3

Adelaide Oval

49886​

Sun 07-Sep-2014 2:50 PM

R18

H

Melbourne

4.4 7.6 8.9 10.12

72​

2.3 5.5 8.7 10.9

69​

W

3​

9-0-2

Adelaide Oval

37894​

Sun 20-Jul-2014 12:40 PM

R14

H

Western Bulldogs

3.1 7.5 13.9 19.14

128​

3.5 5.5 6.7 8.8

56​

W

72​

8-0-0

Adelaide Oval

34258​

Sat 21-Jun-2014 1:15 PM

R8

H

Fremantle

2.4 4.8 8.10 13.16

94​

1.3 6.6 9.9 11.10

76​

W

18​

5-0-0

Adelaide Oval

38234​

Sat 10-May-2014 1:10 PM

R4

H

Brisbane Lions

4.4 10.9 18.13 24.15

159​

3.2 4.3 5.3 7.4

46​

W

113​

3-0-0

Adelaide Oval

36231​

Sat 12-Apr-2014 1:40 PM

R24

H

Melbourne

3.2 8.4 13.6 17.10

112​

3.6 7.11 10.12 15.14

104​

W

8​

1-0-0

Adelaide Oval

29340​

Sun 04-Sep-2011 2:40 PM

 

[tribey]

Nick Riewoldt last year said our games at AO are box office.

Probably because we’re more than likely to serve as the dragon who gets slayed in its own lair, as much as the bells and whistles.

It’s a very bankable script for fans tuning in from Malbin hoping for a happy ending.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Probably because we’re more than likely to serve as the dragon who gets slayed in its own lair, as much as the bells and whistles.

It’s a very bankable script for fans tuning in from Malbin hoping for a happy ending.

Nah he went early.

I looked it up and he made the comment the day after the Sunday night ANZAC day game, we were 5-1 and had just beaten StK, 2 games earlier, Richmond in that 4pt Friday night game and Essendon in Rd 2 in twilight. We lost to WCE in Perth.

We then proceed to lose to the Lions at the Gabba and next 4 Saturday night home games, beat Adelaide, then lost to the big boys Bulldogs, Cats and Dees.

 

[GremioPower]

it's always top 4 teams with the double chance that win Premierships.

It’s usually the Top-3. Don’t ask me why, but the difference between 3rd and 4th is ridiculous.

As RussellEbertHandball had already said:

Nobody else from outside the top 3 has won a flag since the current finals system started in 2000.

---
P.S.: Since 2000, there have been 22 Grand Finals, with 16 of them being between 2 Top-3 sides (72.73%)

• 7, 1v2
• 5, 1v3
• 4, 2v3

Any other combination happened only once: 1v4 (2006), 2v4 (2002), 3v4 (2020), 1v5 (2021), 1v7 (2016), and 3v6 (2019).

Since 2016, however, things seem to have changed: 1v7 (2016), 1v3 (2017), 2v3 (2018), 3v6 (2019), 3v4 (2020), and 1v5 (2021).

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

It’s usually the Top-3. Don’t ask me why, but the difference between 3rd and 4th is ridiculous.

As RussellEbertHandball had already said:

Part of the reason is that 2 v 3 QFs at MCG have been between 2 Vic teams and the 3rd placed team has won the QF and then GF. And 3 dynasty teams have won their 3rd premiership in their sequence from 3rd.

Richmond in 2017 and 2019 won QFs at the MCG. Rich in 2020 won from 3rd, were battle hardened when they relocated to Qld and the Gabba Lost QF to the Lions at the Gabba and won the PF at AO.

Hawks were 3rd in 2015 in the 3rd year of their dynasty and lost in Perth in QF but won PF in Perth.

Brisbane won from 3rd in the final year of their 3 in a row. Lost QF at MCG but won PF in Sydney.

So 3 of the 3rd victories came from the final year of 3 dynasties who won 3 flags and Richmond won on their home ground QFs despite finishing 3rd.

The other 2 of 7 flags from 3rd were both Sydney. They only just beat WCE in 2005 when both barely could beat each other. Sydney almost won from 4th in 2006. They played about a dozen games in that sequence where only 1 game was not won by 12 pts or less.

In 2012 they were 3rd were finals battle hardened and beat a surprise youngish Adelaide who jumped from 14th to finish 2nd and Sydney was too strong in the QF at Footy Park.


Since 2000 the following have won flags
1st 7 and lost 8 GFs
2nd 7 and lost 6 GFs
3rd 7 and lost 3 GFs
7th 1

4th lost 3 GFs
5th lost 1 GF
6th lost 1 GF