List Mgmt. 2022 Trade and Free Agency Thread

[Jivlain]

 

[mpal6]

If it’s a end of first round pick, what does it matter where it ends up in the first round of next year’s draft?

Even if we ended up with picks 17 and 18 next year, it’s very unlikely that any potential deficit would wipe out one pick, let alone two.

So it’s in effect future proofing the later of future first round picks. With the earlier one probably down graded to a mid to late second round pick after paying off the deficit.

I was looking at it from the number of draft picks we can take to the draft. If hypothetically we re-sign all of Deven, Prior, TBerry etc, I'm not sure if it leaves us with enough spots to generate the points needed this year.

I was already thinking we'll go deficit next year if needed while matching both Ashcroft and Fletcher. But now there may be another option if McStay chooses to leave and we have another end of first round to play with.

 

[BangyBangy]

If I were Dan, and I got offered $600k a year to be the Pies' number 1 forward til he's 32, I would:
1. Not think I was suited to it
2. Not think I would live up to expectations
2. Take it anyway. Laugh all the way to the bank.

This is their job. Forget about tax and all that, if you got offered 30% extra to work elsewhere, you'd take it.

Not necessarily. If I enjoyed where I worked and was close to the success that I sought professionally then the money wouldn't be as great a motivator personally.

Sure, I'd use the offer to gain as much leverage as I could for my next contract at my current job, but that's about it.

Will I enjoy the new work environment? Will I enjoy & am I suited to the new role? Will I struggle with the high level of scrutiny & public pressure that will inevitably come with the new company?

All very important questions. If the answer is no to one or more of those then it'll be a tough call.

 

[briztoon]

I was looking at it from the number of draft picks we can take to the draft. If hypothetically we re-sign all of Deven, Prior, TBerry etc, I'm not sure if it leaves us with enough spots to generate the points needed this year.

I was already thinking we'll go deficit next year if needed while matching both Ashcroft and Fletcher. But now there may be another option if McStay chooses to leave and we have another end of first round to play with.

I always look at such trades with the FS bid matching at the forefront of my mind.

There’s so much to any possible scenario, it’s hard for me to cover in one post.

As the ladder stands today, we currently hold 1923 points in this year’s draft, spread over 4 picks, 17, 35, 45, 71.

So we’re currently 100 odd points away from being able to match a bid at pick 2.

I’ve mentioned numerous times before, I can quite easily see us creating the space for 4 or 5 picks.

We could go to the draft with all of Ely Smith, Connor MacFadyen, Tom Berry, Tom Fullerton, Ryan Lester and Mitchell Cox (R) as unsigned. Giving us 5 National Draft picks and one Rookie Draft pick.

We would probably tell Smith and Cox that they will be delisted before the trade period.

We might tell Berry, Fullerton and Lester that we hope to redraft them at the end of the National Draft or in the Rookie Draft.

MacFadyen might be told no promises, but we might or might not look at redrafting you.

So we match the bids on Ashcroft and Fletcher, draft the best remaining KPP available with our third pick, redraft Lester and Berry with our last two National Draft picks (which means they’re now re-contracted on a two year draft contract), and redraft Fullerton with our one Rookie Draft pick on a one year rookie contract.

Yes, we run the risk of other teams drafting one or more of our players in the National Draft, or picking them up during the delisted free agency period, but that would be highly unlikely.


If we believe only Ashcroft will be bid on in the first round, I’m only really concerned about having the points to be able to match at pick one or two.

Both West Coast and Gold Coast will probably have second and third round picks that they will want to upgrade for a late first round pick.

It shouldn’t be hard to trade our first round pick for an extra 200+ points upgrade.

 

[JasRulz63]

It shouldn’t be hard to trade our first round pick for an extra 200+ points upgrade.

There won't be many teams looking to move their first round pick apart from us in terms of F/S or academy players, so it could be quite sought after. The dogs got a ~500 point upgrade last year.

 

[Gadzorks]

Just read this on the lions site - it's a excellent telling of the lions success last time round.

The first part is hot and heavy on players having to put success before dollars. How last time a dozen players took a total of a $500,000 pay cut to keep the team together.

Gotta think it's a message. How many contact talks are stalled? What stars are they talking to about possible pay cuts?

That $500k twenty years ago would be what? $1.5mill today? Interesting times ahead.

Moments of Change: The Sacrifices of a Flag

The Brisbane Lions playing group added a new word to the club vernacular in season 2002 as they looked to repeat their premiership heroics of 2001. Pay cut.

www.lions.com.au

 

[briztoon]

Oops, hit “post reply” before finishing.

Part 2.

If the Fletcher bid comes in the second round, I’m not really worried about any potential deficit carried over in to 2023, because it only comes off our second round pick (or later round picks, if we trade our future second round pick).

Once we have matched the Ashcroft bid, we should have a number of contingency trades in place, dependant on where the Fletcher bid come in.

When we match the Ashcroft bid, our first pick will slide up the draft, and slot in to where the bid is made. Our four remaining picks (if all picks are used to match the bid), slide to the back of the draft order.

Since lists sizes were reduced, due to covid cut backs, we have seen the number of picks used at the draft drop. Last year there were only 65 players taken in the National Draft.

So say our four picks slide back to the last four picks that have points attached to them, picks 73 (9), 72 (19), 71 (29), and 70 (39). So that’s 96 points off any future deficit.

Then there’s always the potential to make a trade when the bid comes, to trade a future pick, or picks for picks in this year’s draft.

Our future second round pick and two of our late picks and for two picks in third round (say Geelong’s picks 48 & 53) potentially allows us to match a bid at pick 23.

If the bid comes towards the end of the first round, I tell the AFL we’re matching with future picks.

Then after the match, I’m putting our future first round pick on the table for any team willing to trade a second round pick and a future second round pick for it.

We’re in effect moving the debt to our (now) two future second round picks. The last two picks of the second round can match a bid at pick 12, so we likely receive a residual pick around end of the third round, beginning of the fourth round.

Then with the pick we now hold in the second round, I’m hoping either of the GWV Rebels KPP’s are available.

 

[briztoon]

Just read this on the lions site - it's a excellent telling of the lions success last time round.

The first part is hot and heavy on players having to put success before dollars. How last time a dozen players took a total of a $500,000 pay cut to keep the team together.

Gotta think it's a message. How many contact talks are stalled? What stars are they talking to about possible pay cuts?

That $500k twenty years ago would be what? $1.5mill today? Interesting times ahead.

Moments of Change: The Sacrifices of a Flag

The Brisbane Lions playing group added a new word to the club vernacular in season 2002 as they looked to repeat their premiership heroics of 2001. Pay cut.

www.lions.com.au

There’s been many articles about the Hawks three peat team sacrificing money for success.

 

[briztoon]

There won't be many teams looking to move their first round pick apart from us in terms of F/S or academy players, so it could be quite sought after. The dogs got a ~500 point upgrade last year.

Yeah, I didn’t want to stretch the boundaries to best case scenario. A trade with GC is most likely in such a scenario, and even then, it’s hard for me to see us getting a 500 point upgrade.

There aren’t many FS son kids likely to attract early bids.

Essendon will be hoping to use their second round pick before a bid for Alwyn Davey is made.

In all likelihood Ashcroft and Fletcher are the first two kids bid on.

 

[mpal6]

Oops, hit “post reply” before finishing.

Part 2.

If the Fletcher bid comes in the second round, I’m not really worried about any potential deficit carried over in to 2023, because it only comes off our second round pick (or later round picks, if we trade our future second round pick).

Once we have matched the Ashcroft bid, we should have a number of contingency trades in place, dependant on where the Fletcher bid come in.

When we match the Ashcroft bid, our first pick will slide up the draft, and slot in to where the bid is made. Our four remaining picks (if all picks are used to match the bid), slide to the back of the draft order.

Since lists sizes were reduced, due to covid cut backs, we have seen the number of picks used at the draft drop. Last year there were only 65 players taken in the National Draft.

So say our four picks slide back to the last four picks that have points attached to them, picks 73 (9), 72 (19), 71 (29), and 70 (39). So that’s 96 points off any future deficit.

Then there’s always the potential to make a trade when the bid comes, to trade a future pick, or picks for picks in this year’s draft.

Our future second round pick and two of our late picks and for two picks in third round (say Geelong’s picks 48 & 53) potentially allows us to match a bid at pick 23.

If the bid comes towards the end of the first round, I tell the AFL we’re matching with future picks.

Then after the match, I’m putting our future first round pick on the table for any team willing to trade a second round pick and a future second round pick for it.

We’re in effect moving the debt to our (now) two future second round picks. The last two picks of the second round can match a bid at pick 12, so we likely receive a residual pick around end of the third round, beginning of the fourth round.

Then with the pick we now hold in the second round, I’m hoping either of the GWV Rebels KPP’s are available.

Hope our drafting team is taking note, great analysis.

While I like the idea of pre-wiring all possible pick moves after Ashcroft bid match, I wonder how much of this is practical and comes off in real life though. Plans change, other clubs could renege from agreed moves etc. I like your approach but its a challenge to picture how the club scrambles within that 5 minute window, trying to make phone calls and work our way through available options.

 

[Dalions]

Hope our drafting team is taking note, great analysis.

While I like the idea of pre-wiring all possible pick moves after Ashcroft bid match, I wonder how much of this is practical and comes off in real life though. Plans change, other clubs could renege from agreed moves etc. I like your approach but its a challenge to picture how the club scrambles within that 5 minute window, trying to make phone calls and work our way through available options.

I am not sure that it is that 5 minute window that matters so much.
We will have already done the work required during trade period and the extended pick swap period, to get the points that we can to match the bid for him.
For me it is more trying to get another decent pick in using next years first after matching the Ashcroft bid, so we can take a decent kp prospect before we have to match a bid for Fletcher.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Time to get revenge for the Mal Michael

Mal Michael

Age

47

Ht

190cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

5.1

2star

HB

4.7

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.2

3star

No current season stats available

D

6.4

2star

K

2.2

1star

HB

4.2

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.8

4star

manoeuvre.

Tippa would thrive up here.

 

[scoman]

Time to get revenge for the Mal Michael manoeuvre.

Tippa would thrive up here.

Its not an area of need for our team, but, lets go for the Tippa, Cameron Jnr, Rioli trifecta!

 

[mpal6]

Its not an area of need for our team, but, lets go for the Tippa, Cameron Jnr, Rioli trifecta!

Get both Rioli's then. Cyril and Daniel.

 

[Mr Ripper]

More need for Tippo than Tippa right now.

 

[briztoon]

Hope our drafting team is taking note, great analysis.

While I like the idea of pre-wiring all possible pick moves after Ashcroft bid match, I wonder how much of this is practical and comes off in real life though. Plans change, other clubs could renege from agreed moves etc. I like your approach but its a challenge to picture how the club scrambles within that 5 minute window, trying to make phone calls and work our way through available options.

If our list management team have to take notes from me, we’re in trouble.

I’ve been fairly critical of our pick trading in the past. I believe we got caught short for both Coleman bids in the past, but that type of situation isn’t at play this year, with our only concern really being accruing enough points for the Ashcroft bid to begin with, and then working out how and when we pay for Fletcher.


We have seen evidence of teams going in to drafts with deals ready in the background.

I don’t believe we’ll have locked in deals in place, but rather have sounded out clubs who might be willing to make a trade for our future first or future second, for later picks in this draft.

And clubs will also already be looking at next year’s draft crop, compared to this year, and weighing up list needs and talent available.

 

[briztoon]

I am not sure that it is that 5 minute window that matters so much.
We will have already done the work required during trade period and the extended pick swap period, to get the points that we can to match the bid for him.
For me it is more trying to get another decent pick in using next years first after matching the Ashcroft bid, so we can take a decent kp prospect before we have to match a bid for Fletcher.

So we’d effectively be moving our 2023 draft a year forward.

You would hope we have a couple of half decent academy kids in next year’s draft crop, that at least look like late second round talents

Moving our 2023 first round pick in to this year’s draft does have an impact on our ability to match a Fletcher bid.

First, AFL rules require us to hold a pick in each round in 2023, for us to be able to trade our future first round pick in to this year’s draft.

Second, in such a scenario, AFL rules would only allow us to match a bid on Fletcher at pick 20 or later, if we only hold one pick in each round in the 2023 draft. If we held 2 future third round picks (as well as a future second and fourth round pick), we could match a bid from pick 14.

It’s one way of calling opposition teams bluff. They would know we couldn’t match a bid before pick 20, if we traded our future first in to this year to draft a player before the Fletcher bid.

 

[Mighty Lions]

I thought he was 28 not 26. Still crazy if you ask me.

He will be 27 in 1 month.

 

[Mighty Lions]

Not necessarily. If I enjoyed where I worked and was close to the success that I sought professionally then the money wouldn't be as great a motivator personally.

Sure, I'd use the offer to gain as much leverage as I could for my next contract at my current job, but that's about it.

Will I enjoy the new work environment? Will I enjoy & am I suited to the new role? Will I struggle with the high level of scrutiny & public pressure that will inevitably come with the new company?

All very important questions. If the answer is no to one or more of those then it'll be a tough call.

The difference between you moving from 1 contract to another is that the one McStay is considering will probably be his last in the AFL Industry. You would probably consider your last contract a little different to your next if you know what I mean.

 

[BangyBangy]

The difference between you moving from 1 contract to another is that the one McStay is considering will probably be his last in the AFL Industry. You would probably consider your last contract a little different to your next if you know what I mean.

True that's a valid point. Six years is a long time though if you don't enjoy it as much as your current position / employer. I guess another factor to consider is how well a player is setup in relation to their post football career.

 

[Mighty Lions]

True that's a valid point. Six years is a long time though if you don't enjoy it as much as your current position / employer. I guess another factor to consider is how well a player is setup in relation to their post football career.

There is probably a few that could finish their playing careers and kick back and chill however most would need to start a new career at 30-32 years old. Hopefully, with the AFLPA helping and encouraging players to look at life after footy, they have something already set-up or at the very least done some study while playing that helps with re-start their lives workwise.

 

[BangyBangy]

There is probably a few that could finish their playing careers and kick back and chill however most would need to start a new career at 30-32 years old. Hopefully, with the AFLPA helping and encouraging players to look at life after footy, they have something already set-up or at the very least done some study while playing that helps with re-start their lives workwise.

Yeah that is what I was referring to. The higher wage of a suitor club will appeal more to someone who doesn't have his ducks in a row for post life football compared to someone with a degree or trade etc.

 

[davemc_lions]

Its not an area of need for our team, but, lets go for the Tippa, Cameron Jnr, Rioli trifecta!

Anyone heard what Jarrod Cameron doing this year? Did he end up playing WAFL or just take the year off?
Looked cannot see any WAFL games.

 

[Fagenslions36]

Who cares if we go into deficit . If Ashcroft commits to us and we get the number 1 ranked player when we are are up the pointy end of the ladder it’s a clear win for us . What would we prefer pick 18 and not having any picks in deficit or having the best young player in Australia come to us and if it means we go into a slight deficit next year who cares . We have a team set up for sustained success

 

[mattsmob]

Who cares if we go into deficit . If Ashcroft commits to us and we get the number 1 ranked player when we are are up the pointy end of the ladder it’s a clear win for us . What would we prefer pick 18 and not having any picks in deficit or having the best young player in Australia come to us and if it means we go into a slight deficit next year who cares . We have a team set up for sustained success

There’s no question we’ll match any bid and if it’s at pick 1 then great he’s the best talent in the draft but why pay a deficit if we can avoid it? Nobody is saying we pass on him to avoid a deficit.

 

[briztoon]

Who cares if we go into deficit . If Ashcroft commits to us and we get the number 1 ranked player when we are are up the pointy end of the ladder it’s a clear win for us . What would we prefer pick 18 and not having any picks in deficit or having the best young player in Australia come to us and if it means we go into a slight deficit next year who cares . We have a team set up for sustained success

We’re matching the bid. There’s been no discussion about not matching due to a possible deficit.

What some of us are looking at is, how best to manipulate the system, and how best to utilise our future picks to take maximum advantage of the draft.