Preview 2023 Elimination Final - Carlton vs Sydney Friday 8th Sept 7.50PM @ MCG

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Team is in …


IN: Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Marc Pittonet
OUT: Paddy Dow, Corey Durdin, Zac Fisher, Ollie Hollands


After starting the last game as sub, Caleb Marchbank has been elevated into the starting 22.








Backs:Brodie KempJacob WeiteringNic Newman
Half-backs:Alex CincottaMitch McGovernAdam Saad
Centreline:Blake AcresPatrick CrippsSam Docherty
Half-forwards:Jack MartinHarry McKayDavid Cuningham
Forwards:Lachie FogartyCharlie CurnowMatthew Owies
Followers:Marc PittonetAdam CerraSam Walsh
Interchange:Matthew CottrellTom De KoningGeorge Hewett
Caleb Marchbank
Emergencies:Paddy DowZac FisherOllie Hollands
Jesse Motlop
 

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I'd like to display Champion Data the amount of respect that they deserve here (Switkowski should be in the AA team?) - None

Anyone who saw the giants game saw how badly the Harry in the ruck thing worked. It looked a quick way to turn him into a draft horse.

I think that clearances were about even but there's were decisive and ours were insipid.

The way that we beat the swans is to dominate them at clearance, over and over again. We are ranked the #1 team for scores from clearance they are ranked #16. Pitto bangs into them and TDK jumps over them. And we give our blokes first use of the ball.

And in a perfect world half way through the third when they are worn down we sub Pitto off and bring on a runner.

We've got a one wood that we are the best in the comp at using. Let's just take it out and use it on Friday night.

Disposal efficiency /effectiveness has been our issue when we get beaten IMO.
Need to tidy that up Friday, was poor V Giants.
 
He might speak 100% facts, but he omits 50% of other facts.

Pitto has only played 4 games in the last 6 weeks (since round 14 actually), all with a sore knee and whilst regaining fitness. The fact we play him with the sore knee says a bit IMO. We have won all those games, 3 of them against top 6 sides.

He has just had a 3 week break to assist with the knee.

Voss has fond memories of ruckmen wearing 27 who come in and influence big finals. He plays.
You are correct, but no one is disputing what Pittonet does at stoppages. The criticisms are that he contributes nothing outside of stoppages, and that with pitto in TDK gets pushed out of the ruck and plonked in the fwd line where his ouput significantly drops. You could also say that we have an 100% record with no proper ruck in Young/JSOS. That doesn't mean they should be our preferred ruck combo.
 
I'd like to display Champion Data the amount of respect that they deserve here (Switkowski should be in the AA team?) - None

Anyone who saw the giants game saw how badly the Harry in the ruck thing worked. It looked a quick way to turn him into a draft horse.

I think that clearances were about even but there's were decisive and ours were insipid.

The way that we beat the swans is to dominate them at clearance, over and over again. We are ranked the #1 team for scores from clearance they are ranked #16. Pitto bangs into them and TDK jumps over them. And we give our blokes first use of the ball.

And in a perfect world half way through the third when they are worn down we sub Pitto off and bring on a runner.

We've got a one wood that we are the best in the comp at using. Let's just take it out and use it on Friday night.
I'm not saying that Harry is a good ruck. The reason why JSOS does so 'well' in the ruck is because he just competes and gives lets the mids go to work. So when people say we can't play harry in the ruck they are essentially saying that he can't be a competitive athlete which is false. If daniher can pinch hit and just compete then so can harry.
 

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You are correct, but no one is disputing what Pittonet does at stoppages. The criticisms are that he contributes nothing outside of stoppages, and that with pitto in TDK gets pushed out of the ruck and plonked in the fwd line where his ouput significantly drops. You could also say that we have an 100% record with no proper ruck in Young/JSOS. That doesn't mean they should be our preferred ruck combo.

We also won many of our nine game streak without him.
 
I'm not saying that Harry is a good ruck. The reason why JSOS does so 'well' in the ruck is because he just competes and gives lets the mids go to work. So when people say we can't play harry in the ruck they are essentially saying that he isn't a competitive athlete which is false. If daniher can pinch hit and just compete then so can harry.

But that's what you get with Harry. Borderline uncompetitive on the day if he's not feeling it. Not just with rucking but he's made an artform of running under the marking contests or making halfhearted (token) attempts to mark the ball. On other occasions he can look awesome with his contested marking on the wing.

Which Harry will turn up?
 
And Collingwood, Stkilda and Melbourne games with him.

So pretty much bottom 8 teams and port without him and three premiership contenders with him.

Cmon mate Saints aren't premiership contenders. Port are.

I guess we'll find out soon. My tip is that he'll play. Doesn't mean I agree with it though.

Edit: Squad of 25 released tonight or not?
 
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I reckon Voss is going to encourage the team to play the game through the corridor - was pretty evident to me in watching the 'experimental' moves in the first half against GWS - that that was the training drill go to strategy.

I also think that Fisher has been given a run at HBF so that corridor kick play potential is added to Saad's natural disposition. McGovern needed the game under his belt- his corridor kicks were turnovers in Q1. Kemp and Cincotta are more likey to find a wing - because they are typically ( but not always) coming off a back pocket field position. Newman looks to play corridor if he is higher up and wing if he is deep. Boyd's potential differentiator is his kicking penetration ( every bit as good as McGovern's) - the one criticism I would have on Weitering is that he has not developed what was a massive weapon when he first came to Carlton and that was a powerful penetrating flat kick to advantage - other FB liek May / Andrewes for example are excellent rebound kicks. Marchbank is a very slow decision maker - that is the knock on him- his fumbles I can handle because that will improve teh more he plays. I dont see Marchy in teh tgeam for this one nor Fisher- if as I suspect Acres will be rihght to play and Doch is used as a HBF/wing rotation.- allowing for the inclusion of more run or more grunt betwen the arcs- Voss will favour grunt - suspect anyway.

A lot of rebound capability in Carlton's kicking game - but often breaks down at the first reciever phase - when it doesn't and is followed up with a centering kick - the team often scores or achieves deep inside fifty field position.

Both TDK and Pittonet need to develop and improve their field marking and kicking - Pittonet is a flat out rubbish kick of the ball and a below average marking target - which is a pity. Fortunately Cripps out of defense is decent - and Harry makes long runs to be the get out - usually he marks or at the least spoils to advantage and a stoppage - he isnt usually the source of a turnover.

This is the hardest game for me to pcik a stsarting 22/23 - a lot fo 'role players' are potneially equally proficient in playing their roles - so it will boil down to how Voss wnts the game to be played on top of the usual pressur game which hopefully comes back as it has been sliding over the last couple of weeks.

Push comes to shove - the better defender will get the nod in any toss of the dice calls on players.

Acres fitness or not will have domino effects all over the place (IMO). He is a very difficult math up for any opposition - better than a role player at Carlton and (IMO) irreplaceable for the combination of attributes he brings.

On thing is for sure when Carlton beats Sydney - the next match be it Melbourne or as likely Collingwood- I'd liek to go into that game with teh biggest meanst bunch of mids that can possibly be mustered - no better way to get to a prelim than to obliterate the opposition mids - that si the key to beating Collingwood - starve themn of the ball and smashj them in contests- take away their fanty pants overlap run or unopressured field kciking capability.

Really looking forward to this week's selections - Ihave no idea how 4-6 selections will go.
 
I'm with Arr0w here. Doc is of more value to us as a general mid/winger than as a defender.

By this I mean that we can get others to cover his role as a flanker (Cincotta, Boyd, Marchbank ) better than we can cover a mid role. He is usually a 30 touches mid who will do a bit on the wing, play defensive mid and even cover another teams mid that has been hurting us. There are plenty on here who (believe it or not) still underestimate what Doc does for us, who just look at stats or a missed kick here or there.

If Acres doesn't play then Doc definitely plays wing. If he does I suspect that he plays as a general (all encompassing) mid. I think that that is where Vossy has him in our best team.

Do we need to cover a mid role now though?

We have only had Cripps, Cerra, Walsh and one of Hewett/Kennedy available 3 times in the second half of the year - rounds 16,17 and 18. Each time that has happened, we have been missing a winger. Cottrell missed round 16 and Hollands missed all 3.

You are correct that Doc has covered well in those roles, but they are all back this week. I'm not sure that Boyd and Marchbank are better "cover" than who they effectively displace.
 
But that's what you get with Harry. Borderline uncompetitive on the day if he's not feeling it. Not just with rucking but he's made an artform of running under the marking contests or making halfhearted (token) attempts to mark the ball. On other occasions he can look awesome with his contested marking on the wing.

Which Harry will turn up?
I think Harry's confidence has just been shot. Personally I like him as the goalsquare FF and Charlie as CHF considering charlie is a better field kick but with the form charlie is in I can understand wanting to have him as close to goal as possible. But no doubt Harry's role has changed under Voss and I think its done harry more harm than good.
 

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Earls Smother whilst I want Dow out there from the first bounce I do agree, he would also make a great sub. Especially if we're going in top heavy which I get the impression is the case. Cant see us making one of the rucks a sub.
That's why I like Kennedy as sub. Can play forward and have H ruck for 5-6minutes while TDK rests. Will still hit bodies hard.

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JSOS has already been ruled out from my understanding, but surely is in the mix if (when) we progress.

Kennedy has no recent form, but if fit, must be genuinely in the mix. Hard to push out those with “form”, but would not shock. No reports from match sim other than a bit of argy bargy.

Marchbank has to remain in the mix. Form building over recent weeks. Horses for courses analysis suggests Swans play McDonald, McLean, Amartey and Hayward as marking options along with Heeney and even Papley in the forward line. Marchy can certainly find a role V Swans.

Hollands has been a lock on a wing all season when fit. His endurance and ability to read play have been under rated by many. He may lack a little strength yet, but consistently stops or at least delays opposition ball movement. The Swans movement is more from D50 and the wings than a turnover model. I actually see Dutchy as a fair option to quell the influence of Gulden.

Corey Durdin reportedly done a hammy, so out of discussions, if he was in them.

I have Fisher down on the list of priorities, but if they are expecting a Saad tag, he would have a use. Does not appear defensive minded enough for the cut and thrust of finals given other options

So many are leaving a 7th defender out, putting Doc in that “hole”. He has played precious little defence this season and I doubt he will be deployed there on Friday.

The Dow debate goes on (and on), so many pros and cons on that front. I like what Dow brings, but can’t rate it ahead of Hewett, Kennedy or Docherty relative to the mix. He does have high clearance statistics, but is not usurping Crippa any time soon. Heweyy and Cerra bring a defensive presence Paddy does not get close to. The sub vest looms as a real possibility.

We haven’t heard many reports on Acres. Undoubtedly a key “piece”, but surely if he is encumbered we must err on the side of caution. We have delayed returns for other stars to be certain of their readiness, I am not sure he plays if it is a 50:50 choice given so many are in line for selection.

Pitto is a fascinating one. Our preferred model is either tandem rucks or JSOS giving a chop out. TDK has improved in leaps and bounds in the back half of the year and is ready for 70-80% ruck time, but that other 20-30% is a quandary. Do we Rob Peter to pay Paul with Harry doing a bit. Crippa would contribute normally, but if his ribs are still an issue, we would be reluctant to do so. I like Pitto in, but it is a difficult argument for him to do 30-40% ruck time. Sure we could plan to sub him off, but that is reliant on no injuries.

Fogarty is a pressure king and an excellent reader of play. A good link man through the middle and handy at clearance. Falls down on the point of disposal, particularly penetration by foot. Not a real forward threat, struggling to kick 40 metres at times.

Cuningham has an element of x-factor, but has seemed a little tired of late. The week off probably refreshes him enough to stay in the mix. Has “saved” his career and will be a factor in 2024. A little unclear if he holds his spot at the pointy end of ‘23 with such competition for the ‘22.

Cincotta is almost a lock for me. Struggled to get up last week with soreness. The mere fact he was selected is a guide to his place in the pecking order. A week off, running on top of the ground, only misses if the MC opt for both Fisher and Marchbank ahead of him.

Boyd has been put up by a few, I don’t see it. Quality player with magnificent disposal. Played a blinder first game back in the twos, then invisible in the next. It is hard to see him pushing past Cinc, Marchy and Fish to reclaim a spot now.
Gulden would torch Dutchy.

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Gulden would torch Dutchy.

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Not advocating it, but really believe Dutchy would match up well.

Ollie was cooked before his injury and needed a break. He got a break. Back as a running machine with a discernible amount of physical growth. With his natural endurance, combativeness and game smarts, he is our best match for an accountable role of the instinctive Gulden. Week off gives him the perfect preparation.

I have plenty of faith in the lad.
 
The buzz really has kicked in today. Been excited but itching to get to the G now. It’s gonna be a tough fight, the weather will be an interesting factor, may suit our contested game where as Sydney like to run and keep the ball in space, especially as they move off HB. Think if we can make it hard fought, create a lot of stoppage, get our clearance game going and win those match ups, we give this a good shake.

Doc, Crippa, Mots will be locks but the interesting one is Pitto.
They have a lot of game winners in their side. Stopping the distribution from the back half from Blakey and Lloyd is important. I think we tried to add some layers in that Giants game, and will go back to some things which was working for us prior.

2 more sleeps.
 
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