Autopsy 2023 Rd 22 Blues win a thriller. Finals closer.

[Accidental genius]

Maybe with Toms marking, he is trying too hard. Looks to me like he has hard hands, needs to soften his hands a bit and let the footy come to him.

Watch out though when he does start clunking them regularly, going to happen soon. Maybe September will be his time.

Agree. I think jsos also had an issue with this until recently. I think jsos marking has improved.

For Tdk It could be a matter of relaxing his arms/hands out in front when marking to as you say soften the impact.

It’s a fine art. Specially when you are running towards the kicker…Charlie does this perfectly. Fevola was also very good in this aspect.

 

[Aphrodite]

 

[BlueGum]

Mate calm down, I wasn't having a go at you or giving attitude, I'm saying that pretty much everyone I speak to about TDK says the same thing. That he's young, he's got potential and IF he does this and IF he does that. My point is that all of these arguments are based on hope, what ifs and emotions rather than actual facts. And I'm more than happy to give you evidence. What I'm about to show you is an extract of something I created before R19 Preview forum this year on the forward conundrum. I'm happy to update the stats at the conclusion of the season but this was before R19. And I do have evidence on how 2 ruck systems are overrated which I am happy to provide if you want.

McGovern is a natural proven goalkicking forward, and is 1 of only 4 players on our list that have kicked over 100 goals. Of our forward players (excluding the twin towers because their spot in the team is not in doubt) these are their goal-game ratios (rounded to 1 decimal):
Owies- 46/42= 1.1
Durdin- 26/33= 0.8
Cuningham- 26/45= 0.6
Lachie Fogarty- 16/47= 0.3
Martin- 118/141= 0.8
JSOS- 86/114= 0.8
Motlop- 26/25= 1.0
TDK (Career)- 16/51= 0.3
TDK as a forward/ruck with pittonet in the side- 4/11= 0.4
Mitch McGovern (Career)- 105/104= 1.0
Mitch McGovern (at the conclusion of 2021 before he switched to defence) - 104/81= 1.3.

So as you can see McGovern is clearly the best forward at the club after Curnow and McKay, and his overall ratio is still higher or level with all but Owies and Motlop, despite spending the last 2 years down back. Since 2019, apart from Curnow, McKay and McGovern we have only had 1 player kick 20+ goals in a season (Cripps 2022). McGovern was playing injured and overweight that year and still has/had a superior record than all but Curnow and McKay.

If all this isn’t enough, in 2020 (more than 5 games played) he ranked #2 at the club for average goal assists (0.7 which was ranked ELITE). The reason I included more than 5 games played is because if I didn’t Darcy Lang would rank #1 after only playing 1 game which clearly distorts the integrity of this data. To put this into perspective, in 2022 McGovern would’ve ranked equal #1 at the club for this stat. And in 2023 he would be ranked #3 only behind Walsh and Curnow. Also, in 2017 he ranked #7 in the competition for this stat with 1.0 (ranked ELITE again). So it's not just the goals that he brings, but the fact that he provides and creates goal scoring opportunities for his teammates. And we all know he can deliver the ball inside F50 too as he is damaging by foot. Now I would prefer for McGovern to play alongside Curnow and McKay rather than replace one, but it is what it is, and regardless he is still superior to all our available options.

Maaaate, you calm down.

67 of his goals were at Adelaide, with a pretty stacked forward line IIRC.

Anyway, who replaces him in the backline? The goals he has kicked for Carlton or might kick for Carlton might well be outnumbered by the goals he has saved, th attacks he's initiated from the backline and the goals he's kicked from the backline. You know, the handballs he runs in for outside 50.

I ain't saying he has no value forward, and anticipate he'll get swung down there from time to time, but it's not him v TDK. It's finding the right balance across the whole ground.

 

[bluesfever16]

Maaaate, you calm down.

67 of his goals were at Adelaide, with a pretty stacked forward line IIRC.

Anyway, who replaces him in the backline? The goals he has kicked for Carlton or might kick for Carlton might well be outnumbered by the goals he has saved, th attacks he's initiated from the backline and the goals he's kicked from the backline. You know, the handballs he runs in for outside 50.

I ain't saying he has no value forward, and anticipate he'll get swung down there from time to time, but it's not him v TDK. It's finding the right balance across the whole ground.

That was the next part of my piece in which I bring up marchbank. And yes he was part of a deadly forward line at crows, but just like he benefited from them, they benefited from him too. Its not a coincidence that their forward line was horrific as its ever been in the 2017 GF when McGovern was injured. He was the glue between the keys (Tex, Jenkins) and the smalls (Betts, cameron). A goal kicker as well as a goal provider, which is why he perfectly complements curnow and mckay. Don't forget that they only played 8 games together in 2019 when we were garbage. Due to Gov and Charlie always being injured, we never got to see this trio strut their stuff. And balance is absolutely important. We generally play with 3 talls so McGovern could definitely fit in the forward line.

 

[sosos]

All this discussion about the touch on the line, and the deliberate out of bounds.

In my opinion, Melbourne were very lucky to get that close. The Kosi Pickett goal was the start of Melbourne's comeback. It was a superb snap, but that goal should never have happened. Pitto was front and square to take that mark, but he was so Gawn conscious, he took his eye off the ball for a moment to find his man, allowing the ball to come to ground. Fair enough too, Gawn is the premier ruck in the competition.

I reckon the coaches will be full of praise for his efforts in this game, but might tell him to trust himself a bit more in those moments next time. If he'd taken that, would have been a statement that we weren't going to let it slip.

 

[BlueGum]

That was the next part of my piece in which I bring up marchbank. And yes he was part of a deadly forward line at crows, but just like he benefited from them, they benefited from him too. Its not a coincidence that their forward line was horrific as its ever been in the 2017 GF when McGovern was injured. He was the glue between the keys (Tex, Jenkins) and the smalls (Betts, cameron). A goal kicker as well as a goal provider, which is why he perfectly complements curnow and mckay. Don't forget that they only played 8 games together in 2019 when we were garbage. Due to Gov and Charlie always being injured, we never got to see this trio strut their stuff. And balance is absolutely important. We generally play with 3 talls so McGovern could definitely fit in the forward line.

Marchy. Who has just come back after a long lay off? Love having him back but not relying on him or no other injuries ever yet. Kemp also has good forward instincts. There'll be plenty of times that both him and Gov are considered for a switch up. It's still not a TDK v Kemp or Gov thing. We need to keep developing players for multiple roles. Why stop working on TDK for a forward role?

 

[bluesfever16]

Marchy. Who has just come back after a long lay off? Love having him back but not relying on him or no other injuries ever yet. Kemp also has good forward instincts. There'll be plenty of times that both him and Gov are considered for a switch up. It's still not a TDK v Kemp or Gov thing. We need to keep developing players for multiple roles. Why stop working on TDK for a forward role?

I agree Marchy has had a horror run of injuries, but so has McGovern. This is like the only year where gov has been fit for majority at carlton. 2019 he played 16 games but the club played him injured/underdone, which is what made him look like a failed forward.
Blues rushed McGovern in underdone, coach admits
Season review: Mitch McGovern


And I agree versatility is important in successful sides. But I think that our primary focus should be on making TDK the best ruckman possible first and foremost which means making him the sole ruck. Tim English became the ruckman he is today once the bulldogs stopped playing him behind Stefan Martin and gave English the full responsibility. Throughout 2022 I said that pitto was better than TDK and should be starting over him. However, I now have seen TDK significantly improve in the ruck and now believe that TDK should be the sole ruck and pitto the injury backup. I don't mind TDK floating forward when he is the ruck. However, I don't believe that we should try and convert tdk into a forward just so we can play pitto and tdk together.

 

[BlueGum]

I agree Marchy has had a horror run of injuries, but so has McGovern. This is like the only year where gov has been fit for majority at carlton. 2019 he played 16 games but the club played him injured/underdone, which is what made him look like a failed forward.
Blues rushed McGovern in underdone, coach admits
Season review: Mitch McGovern


And I agree versatility is important in successful sides. But I think that our primary focus should be on making TDK the best ruckman possible first and foremost which means making him the sole ruck. Tim English became the ruckman he is today once the bulldogs stopped playing him behind Stefan Martin and gave English the full responsibility. Throughout 2022 I said that pitto was better than TDK and should be starting over him. However, I now have seen TDK significantly improve in the ruck and now believe that TDK should be the sole ruck and pitto the injury backup. I don't mind TDK floating forward when he is the ruck. However, I don't believe that we should try and convert tdk into a forward just so we can play pitto and tdk together.

I don't think we are trying to make TDK a forward. As per previous post/s, we are trying to develop him for some forward time. Nor do I think we have a mindset of two ruckmen. That's on your point of view. We are doing it because of the assets we have available. That will change.

 

[Jimmyonesix]

How are these laser like goal assist passes that Charlie has been kicking in the last couple of weeks. Two against the saints and another against the dees. Must be going about 55 metres and getting there so quickly.

Matt Owies one of the main beneficiaries. Can't think of anyone else in the comp that could make those kicks.

Taylor Walker is good at this also .

 

[bluesfever16]

I don't think we are trying to make TDK a forward. As per previous post/s, we are trying to develop him for some forward time. Nor do I think we have a mindset of two ruckmen. That's on your point of view. We are doing it because of the assets we have available. That will change.

Maybe you and I don't but voss certainty does. He always talks up the 2 ruck system in pressers and seems willing to do anything to ensure that they play together. People have mentioned it before but once McKay is fully fit I wouldn't mind seeing him take ruck relief, which he actually used to do under Bolton. If Joe Daniher can do it for Lions why can't Harry do it. I'm also content for JSOS to do it. But imagine if JSOS doesn't get a contract. Not only would there be uproar but that would essentially signify that we are going all in on making pitto and tdk play together.

 

[BlueGum]

Maybe you and I don't but voss certainty does. He always talks up the 2 ruck system in pressers and seems willing to do anything to ensure that they play together. People have mentioned it before but once McKay is fully fit I wouldn't mind seeing him take ruck relief, which he actually used to do under Bolton. If Joe Daniher can do it for Lions why can't Harry do it. I'm also content for JSOS to do it. But imagine if JSOS doesn't get a contract. Not only would there be uproar but that would essentially signify that we are going all in on making pitto and tdk play together.

Why wouldn't Voss want to max out chances of winning or halving the tap outs? He's heavily invested in the mids winning the ball as quickly as possible. To get it into the f50 as quickly as possible.

H does take a few but why would we want to risk him against the ruck thugs?

At the moment, neither TDK not Pitto can go at it a whole game. That may change as they get over their injuries.

 

[kreuze_missile]

I think Pittonet is as locked in as it gets and unless injuries () the Silvagni fans will be bitterly disappointed.

The #1 purpose of a ruckman is to impact clearance differential. Pittonet is elite in this regard. TDK is below average. And Silvagni is poor.

Time to get on the Pitto bandwagon [edited again.. sigh]

 

[JoeyPBLUES]

I think Pittonet is as locked in as it gets and unless injuries () the Silvagni fans will be bitterly disappointed.

The #1 purpose of a ruckman is to impact clearance differential. Pittonet is elite in this regard. TDK is below average. And Silvagni is poor.

Time to get on the Pitto bandwagon lads.

Problem with Pitts is he's consistently playing injured with his knee. reckon you should check our ruckmen's stats from Saturday night against the best the comp, might be surprised. I'm not saying JSOS is the answer I'm saying it's likely going to be a horses for courses thing moving forward if JSOS stays.

 

[BlueGum]

I think Pittonet is as locked in as it gets and unless injuries () the Silvagni fans will be bitterly disappointed.

The #1 purpose of a ruckman is to impact clearance differential. Pittonet is elite in this regard. TDK is below average. And Silvagni is poor.

Time to get on the Pitto bandwagon lads.

Lads? Sigh.

 

[Blue and Blue]

All I can say is ruck off,...... another ruck on. Or next ruck up.
I actually think 2 is essential to this footy we are playing. Even 3 at times.
Doesnt matter what the names are.

If one does even the most shallow research two rucks has almost always been a part of the game.
Once upon a time they rested in a pocket now they go to the bench.

 

[bluesfever16]

Why wouldn't Voss want to max out chances of winning or halving the tap outs? He's heavily invested in the mids winning the ball as quickly as possible. To get it into the f50 as quickly as possible.

H does take a few but why would we want to risk him against the ruck thugs?

At the moment, neither TDK not Pitto can go at it a whole game. That may change as they get over their injuries.

I reckon TDK is ready to do the bulk of it. While he isn't clean with his disposal he is very good and getting down and dirty and surging the ball forward, which is where majority of his score involvements and score launches come from. He also tracks back and supports the team defensively. I like pittonet, in fact I've always preferred the big bulky mumford type ruck then the slimmer english/tdk type. But TDK has overtaken pitto. He isn't a baby that needs to be nurtured anymore, he's a 24 year old man. Its time we give him the keys to be the full time ruck.

 

[kreuze_missile]

Problem with Pitts is he's consistently playing injured with his knee. reckon you should check our ruckmen's stats from Saturday night against the best the comp, might be surprised. I'm not saying JSOS is the answer I'm saying it's likely going to be a horses for courses thing moving forward if JSOS stays.

Let me repeat some of what I said before as I think you are looking at the wrong stats..

The #1 purpose of a ruckman is to impact clearance differential.

Pittonet's value is that he is a clearance impactor and opposition ruckman effectiveness negator. Pitto had the highest hitout to advantage rate of any ruckman on the ground.

Total clearances were 45-43 in favour of Melbourne and that's with the two supposedly highest rated ruckman in the competition.

Then you need to consider who they were tapping to. A Melbourne midfield at full strength vs our undermanned lineup missing Cerra, Walsh and Kennedy.

Fortunately the Match Committee understand Pittonet's value. It's ugly but highly effective.

I also don't think TDK has the tank to do it for 4 quarters - had huge burst impact vs Dees.

 

[BlueGum]

I reckon TDK is ready to do the bulk of it. While he isn't clean with his disposal he is very good and getting down and dirty and surging the ball forward, which is where majority of his score involvements and score launches come from. He also tracks back and supports the team defensively. I like pittonet, in fact I've always preferred the big bulky mumford type ruck then the slimmer english/tdk type. But TDK has overtaken pitto. He isn't a baby that needs to be nurtured anymore, he's a 24 year old man. Its time we give him the keys to be the full time ruck.

you love to load up on the emotive language. Who thinks he's a baby? Both him and Pitto are reported to be week to week propositions.

I'm happy to go with whatever ruck combo the coach thinks is best, given the oppo, fitness and availability. Reckon it will change from time to time, but he prefers two genuine rucks so we make the most of our midfield beast advantage.

 

[bluesfever16]

you love to load up on the emotive language. Who thinks he's a baby? Both him and Pitto are reported to be week to week propositions.

I'm happy to go with whatever ruck combo the coach thinks is best, given the oppo, fitness and availability. Reckon it will change from time to time, but he prefers two genuine rucks so we make the most of our midfield beast advantage.

No one has specifically said he's a baby but I don't believe in the notion that some people try to imply that TDK needs pittonet to do all the hard yards and then TDK comes in when the oppo ruck is tired. I don't see TDK getting manhandled in the ruck anymore like he did in 2022. He is able to hold his own against some serious rucks. Especially the R12 game v Dees I thought he was pretty gutsy, so its a credit to him the progression he's shown as a ruck.

 

[Aphrodite]

GOLD from VICPOL

 

[El Topo]

It's wild how much better we look with a mobile backline, huge to know that all of Kemp Cinc Boyd Gov and to a letter extent Marchbank have the speed, aggression and intent required for our relentless pressure game

 

[kreuze_missile]

It's wild how much better we look with a mobile backline, huge to know that all of Kemp Cinc Boyd Gov and to a letter extent Marchbank have the speed, aggression and intent required for our relentless pressure game

Who's Zac Williams replacing in 2024?

 

[El Topo]

Who's Zac Williams replacing in 2024?

A seriously unlucky player

 

[Number_9]

Who's Zac Williams replacing in 2024?

Cincotta and it would be an easy decision

 

[Ezayyak]

Cincotta and it would be an easy decision

Not really, Cincotta brings a bit of mongrel to our defence, with skills and he doesn't get flustered.