Autopsy 2023 Rd 22 Blues win a thriller. Finals closer.

[Blue__Balls]

There was literally no one to kick to or there was one on four, there was no other option. Keep the ball in play and it just rebounds straight back so better off going OOB and getting a few seconds to reset. There were two blunders however, Blacres clearing the ball straight into the middle instead of going for the line and also Newman's awful right footer that also went into the middle. Lucky Salem couldn't kick the goal. But the pressure was immeasurable and we still held on.

I think the takeaway from that needs to be making sure we have a player close enough to the boundary line that the bail-out kick can find the boundary without being an obvious Deliberate call from the umpire. We don't need to mark it on the wing (though that would be preferred), but we should be trying to ensure that if we don't it becomes a stoppage in neutral territory.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

Could not agree more I think it's more aimed at the younger kids/teenagers to get them involved. I mean in my early teenage years it was the AFL Squadon showing you a segment of how the Rocca brothers make toasted sandwiches at home

I shouldn't be so cynical

 

[Show_Me_The_Money]

I think the takeaway from that needs to be making sure we have a player close enough to the boundary line that the bail-out kick can find the boundary without being an obvious Deliberate call from the umpire. We don't need to mark it on the wing (though that would be preferred), but we should be trying to ensure that if we don't it becomes a stoppage in neutral territory.

There was a player on the boundary a few times but he was simply outnumbered and the ball came straight back in. You certainly cant afford to have even numbers behind the ball in a situation like that.

 

[Matty411]

The curnows won’t be forgotten anytime soon.

There is a special bond between Ed and Charlie and it seems to have infiltrated across the team.

Blues Brothers means something entirely different right now, and I'm here for it.

 

[Blue__Balls]

There was a player on the boundarty a few times but he was simply outnumbered and the ball came straight back in. You certainly cant afford to have even numbers behind the ball in a situation like that.

Here's the first deliberate from Fisher:


And the second from Acres:


First one Charlie was too far from the boundary line.
Second one he'd come too far up the ground.

Not crucifying or even deliberately singling him out here, just highlighting that it's something I expect will come up in the review. In that situation, we need to ensure that there is a player 60m or so from the contest, and close enough to the boundary line that if the hack kick comes out they can get close enough to the drop of the ball that the umpire doesn't have an obvious Deliberate call. Small thing, but very important when there's only one kick in the game.

 

[Matty411]

Here's the first deliberate from Fisher:
View attachment 1774645

And the second from Acres:
View attachment 1774653

First one Charlie was too far from the boundary line.
Second one he'd come too far up the ground.

Not crucifying or even deliberately singling him out here, just highlighting that it's something I expect will come up in the review. In that situation, we need to ensure that there is a player 60m or so from the contest, and close enough to the boundary line that if the hack kick comes out they can get close enough to the drop of the ball that the umpire doesn't have an obvious Deliberate call. Small thing, but very important when there's only one kick in the game.

Can't disagree here, especially if they've trained these scenarios (as TDK noted post-match). Great news is that we still have improvement to come and are acknowledging the fact.

For the first time in a while, I have full faith.

 

[Stamos]

Here's the first deliberate from Fisher:
View attachment 1774645

And the second from Acres:
View attachment 1774653

First one Charlie was too far from the boundary line.
Second one he'd come too far up the ground.

Not crucifying or even deliberately singling him out here, just highlighting that it's something I expect will come up in the review. In that situation, we need to ensure that there is a player 60m or so from the contest, and close enough to the boundary line that if the hack kick comes out they can get close enough to the drop of the ball that the umpire doesn't have an obvious Deliberate call. Small thing, but very important when there's only one kick in the game.

Charlie was absolutely cooked (another reason why suggestions we don't need H are idiotic).
Ed also cleared one to him, but he got a really unlucky bounce. Earlier in the game he probably would have gathered.

Certainly some lessons for us in those last couple of minutes though.

 

[Stamos]

Also, I don't think a long clearing kick to go out of bounds on the wing with 15 seconds to go is a bad option.

 

[skadoosh]

Also, I don't think a long clearing kick to go out of bounds on the wing with 15 seconds to go is a bad option.

I'd say it is the right decision. In that moment when you have the ball, it's not the time to risk holding on a split second longer to find vision of a teammate and then execute a handball/kick. Because if you are tackled, it's a free kick and a shot on goal for the opposition. Percentage play is to get the ball as far away as possible and towards the boundary- you take the insufficient attempt call and reset.

This is why I was actually surprised that Hewett didn't just bang the ball when he collected TDK's spoil, rather turned back and handballed it off to Newman. Kudos to Hewett for recognising he had the time to do so.

 

[bluesfever16]

Could've sworn TDK played ruck for a large portion of the game. His 6 goals is actually not a bad return for someone that hasn't played much senior footy let alone as a forward. Also, he took a mark inside 50m and scored a very important goal for us at the start of the last quarter. Also nearly marked one late in the game.

In the 3rd quarter yes. And no surprises that it was his most influential quarter. And lets just be honest 6 goals isn't a good return, just like 4 goals last year wasn't either, and 7 the year before. In fact, all of TDK's goals in 2022 came in games where he was the sole ruck (GC R4, GWS R9, SYD R10, GEEL R18). He also got dropped twice in 2022 for his inability to impact as a forward. And the same thing happened again at the start of this year, expect the club said he was 'managed' for the STK game. Luke Jackson isn't a forward either and generally plays as a forward/ruck and averages 0.7 goals compared to TDK's 0.3. But all you hear from the media is that Jackson isn't a forward, yet they love to classify TDK as one. TDK also plays on guys who are 10cm/10kg shorter/lighter, like Nathan Murphy v Pies, Jack Ziebell v North and still struggles to impact. Also played on 2nd gamer Josh Worrell v Crows last year and Worrell made TDK look like the 2nd gamer. If we have better 3rd talls than him (ie. McGovern, JSOS) then TDK shouldn't be playing forward. I'm hoping that he's only playing forward due to our current injuries.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Charlie was absolutely cooked (another reason why suggestions we don't need H are idiotic).
Ed also cleared one to him, but he got a really unlucky bounce. Earlier in the game he probably would have gathered.

Certainly some lessons for us in those last couple of minutes though.

Oh, for sure. As I said, not a criticism of Charlie, he's been herculean the last month.

Also, I don't think a long clearing kick to go out of bounds on the wing with 15 seconds to go is a bad option.

Again, agree 100%. And it's for that reason that I reckon the coaches will be drilling the downfield structure required to support that percentage play. You're happy to gain 50-60m and have the ball cross the boundary, it's the next best outcome behind having one of our players mark it. But if it's going to go out of bounds on the wing, you'd rather it come back into play via a throw-in rather than an opposition free kick.

 

[Show_Me_The_Money]

Here's the first deliberate from Fisher:
View attachment 1774645

And the second from Acres:
View attachment 1774653

First one Charlie was too far from the boundary line.
Second one he'd come too far up the ground.

Not crucifying or even deliberately singling him out here, just highlighting that it's something I expect will come up in the review. In that situation, we need to ensure that there is a player 60m or so from the contest, and close enough to the boundary line that if the hack kick comes out they can get close enough to the drop of the ball that the umpire doesn't have an obvious Deliberate call. Small thing, but very important when there's only one kick in the game.

I think you're asking for too much personally. You don't know where Charlie came from or what he was involved in before. Maybe he made a lead?

There was one moment where Charlie was in the right spot but outnumbered 3-4 to 1. The ball came straight back in. I prefer it going OOB and giving us a few seconds to set up.

 

[Show_Me_The_Money]

Also, I don't think a long clearing kick to go out of bounds on the wing with 15 seconds to go is a bad option.

It's the best and safest option given the circumstances.

 

[Show_Me_The_Money]

In the 3rd quarter yes. And no surprises that it was his most influential quarter. And lets just be honest 6 goals isn't a good return, just like 4 goals last year wasn't either, and 7 the year before. In fact, all of TDK's goals in 2022 came in games where he was the sole ruck (GC R4, GWS R9, SYD R10, GEEL R18). He also got dropped twice in 2022 for his inability to impact as a forward. And the same thing happened again at the start of this year, expect the club said he was 'managed' for the STK game. Luke Jackson isn't a forward either and generally plays as a forward/ruck and averages 0.7 goals compared to TDK's 0.3. But all you hear from the media is that Jackson isn't a forward, yet they love to classify TDK as one. TDK also plays on guys who are 10cm/10kg shorter/lighter, like Nathan Murphy v Pies, Jack Ziebell v North and still struggles to impact. Also played on 2nd gamer Josh Worrell v Crows last year and Worrell made TDK look like the 2nd gamer. If we have better 3rd talls than him (ie. McGovern, JSOS) then TDK shouldn't be playing forward. I'm hoping that he's only playing forward due to our current injuries.

How does TDK average .3? He's played 12 games for 6 goals. I would say in 3 of those games he's moonlighted as a forward, so in reality one goal a game is not bad.

Re shorter players, standard for defenders.

Once again, if he's getting his hands to the ball he will start to clunk them.

 

[Blue__Balls]

I think you're asking for too much personally. You don't know where Charlie came from or what he was involved in before. Maybe he made a lead?

There was one moment where Charlie was in the right spot but outnumbered 3-4 to 1. The ball came straight back in. I prefer it going OOB and giving us a few seconds to set up.

Disagree. It's not too much to ask that when the ball is living in the opposition forward half for the final two minutes, with us less than a goal in front, that we have a clear structure forward of the contest that gives the on-ballers and defenders a bit of coverage so that the dump kick isn't judged as an automatic deliberate out of bounds.

It doesn't matter where Charlie came from. He wasn't in the space that needed to be occupied to force a boundary throw-in. Now again, because I need to make this clear - I'm not blaming him. I'm not blaming anyone. That game was an epic slog, and by the end I'm sure nerves were frayed. So in those times, you want to be able to fall back on established and drilled structures and plays.

Last few minutes, slender lead, players are gassed. Need a player with decent aerial presence (whether it's Charlie, Harry, Acres, Martin, Cottrell, whoever) to maintain position within 15m or so of the boundary, a long kick down the line. Having that player there gives the guys at the contest security, because they know that if they're under pressure they can thump it 50m down the line and there's going to be someone there to contest the ball, and prevent the umpire from paying a deliberate out of bounds free kick.

It's predictable, but that's why it's important, because the last thing you want in those moments is a bloke 30m from the oppo goal, holding on to the ball and looking for an outlet target, only to get gang-tackled by three small forwards. It was predictable to Melbourne, that's for sure, in both cases shown above they had at least two players closer to the drop of the ball than we did, because they knew that with a flooded backline, our boys were going to need to clear the ball ASAP.

So no - it's not too much to ask. It's the minimum. Whichever leader is forward of the ball needs to ensure that they, or a teammate, are positioned in the most likely place a dump kick is going to go.

 

[bluesfever16]

How does TDK average .3? He's played 12 games for 6 goals. I would say in 3 of those games he's moonlighted as a forward, so in reality one goal a game is not bad.

Re shorter players, standard for defenders.

Once again, if he's getting his hands to the ball he will start to clunk them.

averages 0.3 goals for career, compared to Jackson's 0.7. This year TDK is 0.4 compared to jackson 1.0. And freo are a horrific ball movement team who struggle to kick winning scores. It's also not a coincidence that Jackson has played his best footy since Darcy has been injured, meaning Jackson plays 1st ruck. And its not just about TDK's marks, its about what else he provides forward (ie. forward craft, goal assists, etc). When do you ever see TDK complement Curnow or McKay? He doesn't because he isn't a natural forward.

 

[Show_Me_The_Money]

Agree to disagree.

X both posts.

 

[Sweet Seventeen]

It's only a matter of time before he starts clunking those marks I reckon..

Maybe with Toms marking, he is trying too hard. Looks to me like he has hard hands, needs to soften his hands a bit and let the footy come to him.

Watch out though when he does start clunking them regularly, going to happen soon. Maybe September will be his time.

 

[BlueGum]

averages 0.3 goals for career, compared to Jackson's 0.7. This year TDK is 0.4 compared to jackson 1.0. And freo are a horrific ball movement team who struggle to kick winning scores. It's also not a coincidence that Jackson has played his best footy since Darcy has been injured, meaning Jackson plays 1st ruck. And its not just about TDK's marks, its about what else he provides forward (ie. forward craft, goal assists, etc). When do you ever see TDK complement Curnow or McKay? He doesn't because he isn't a natural forward.

Bit more continuity in the ones, with Charlie and Harry and I reckon all 3 of them would learn how to play together better. And bring the other forwards into the game too.

 

[bluesfever16]

Bit more continuity in the ones, with Charlie and Harry and I reckon all 3 of them would learn how to play together better. And bring the other forwards into the game too.

But shouldn't we play whoever is the best 3rd tall forward as the 3rd tall forward (ie. McGovern, JSOS)? My question simple. Is TDK a better 3rd tall forward than say Gov or JSOS? All of the evidence says absolutely not. If the answer is yes then can someone please give me evidence of this. We shouldn't just play TDK forward just because of the ruck factor. I am strongly opposed to 2 ruck systems anyway (and I have tonnes of evidence also) but that is a different debate. I feel that too many fans let their emotions/love for a player cloud their judgement, instead of just critiquing players honestly and objectively.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

I don't want to throw the chickens amongst the roosters here, but I think Pitto should stay in really, and let Jack come in and play as another tall ish option in the forward line.

TDK has had a career best/rich vein of form in the last month or so, but I still think we need Pitto to help give him back up support from time to time.

Pitto still has plenty to offer imo.

 

[BlueGum]

But shouldn't we play whoever is the best 3rd tall forward as the 3rd tall forward (ie. McGovern, JSOS)? My question simple. Is TDK a better 3rd tall forward than say Gov or JSOS? All of the evidence says absolutely not. If the answer is yes then can someone please give me evidence of this. We shouldn't just play TDK forward just because of the ruck factor. I am strongly opposed to 2 ruck systems anyway (and I have tonnes of evidence also) but that is a different debate. I feel that too many fans let their emotions/love for a player cloud their judgement, instead of just critiquing players honestly and objectively.

Thanks for pigeon holing my suggestion as emotional. You sound pretty wound up about people having different views. Maybe show us your tonnes of evidence instead of attitude.

I don't know all the considerations for playing TDK forward but here are a few that i think are on the table;

• rotations, ability to rest forward and leave some benchtime for others
• stretch oppo defences, not many have 3 quality talls to cover H, Charlie and TDK
• diversity in attack, bring some change so that teams can't just plan to sit on H and Charlie
• short tall defenders, gov needed down back for the time being, and as I recall it wasn't lighting it up in the front half
• bringing the ball to ground, he's another player that can bring small/ers into the game. Its not all mark and kick for goal. Our forward pressure is bringing in other scoring options.
• injuries come to rucks and forwards, having TDK with better forward "craft" would help cover our injuries and stretch oppo ruckmen

I ****ing care about the team, and team balance. I like that they are developing TDK for different roles. Rucks are generally slow burns, why write him off for the forward role yet. Would seem to set limits on what he and the team can do.

 

[bluesfever16]

Thanks for pigeon holing my suggestion as emotional. You sound pretty wound up about people having different views. Maybe show us your tonnes of evidence instead of attitude.

I don't know all the considerations for playing TDK forward but here are a few that i think are on the table;

• rotations, ability to rest forward and leave some benchtime for others
• stretch oppo defences, not many have 3 quality talls to cover H, Charlie and TDK
• diversity in attack, bring some change so that teams can't just plan to sit on H and Charlie
• short tall defenders, gov needed down back for the time being, and as I recall it wasn't lighting it up in the front half
• bringing the ball to ground, he's another player that can bring small/ers into the game. Its not all mark and kick for goal. Our forward pressure is bringing in other scoring options.
• injuries come to rucks and forwards, having TDK with better forward "craft" would help cover our injuries and stretch oppo ruckmen

I ******* care about the team, and team balance. I like that they are developing TDK for different roles. Rucks are generally slow burns, why write him off for the forward role yet. Would seem to set limits on what he and the team can do.

Mate calm down, I wasn't having a go at you or giving attitude, I'm saying that pretty much everyone I speak to about TDK says the same thing. That he's young, he's got potential and IF he does this and IF he does that. My point is that all of these arguments are based on hope, what ifs and emotions rather than actual facts. And I'm more than happy to give you evidence. What I'm about to show you is an extract of something I created before R19 Preview forum this year on the forward conundrum. I'm happy to update the stats at the conclusion of the season but this was before R19. And I do have evidence on how 2 ruck systems are overrated which I am happy to provide if you want.

McGovern is a natural proven goalkicking forward, and is 1 of only 4 players on our list that have kicked over 100 goals. Of our forward players (excluding the twin towers because their spot in the team is not in doubt) these are their goal-game ratios (rounded to 1 decimal):
Owies- 46/42= 1.1
Durdin- 26/33= 0.8
Cuningham- 26/45= 0.6
Lachie Fogarty- 16/47= 0.3
Martin- 118/141= 0.8
JSOS- 86/114= 0.8
Motlop- 26/25= 1.0
TDK (Career)- 16/51= 0.3
TDK as a forward/ruck with pittonet in the side- 4/11= 0.4
Mitch McGovern (Career)- 105/104= 1.0
Mitch McGovern (at the conclusion of 2021 before he switched to defence) - 104/81= 1.3.

So as you can see McGovern is clearly the best forward at the club after Curnow and McKay, and his overall ratio is still higher or level with all but Owies and Motlop, despite spending the last 2 years down back. Since 2019, apart from Curnow, McKay and McGovern we have only had 1 player kick 20+ goals in a season (Cripps 2022). McGovern was playing injured and overweight that year and still has/had a superior record than all but Curnow and McKay.

If all this isn’t enough, in 2020 (more than 5 games played) he ranked #2 at the club for average goal assists (0.7 which was ranked ELITE). The reason I included more than 5 games played is because if I didn’t Darcy Lang would rank #1 after only playing 1 game which clearly distorts the integrity of this data. To put this into perspective, in 2022 McGovern would’ve ranked equal #1 at the club for this stat. And in 2023 he would be ranked #3 only behind Walsh and Curnow. Also, in 2017 he ranked #7 in the competition for this stat with 1.0 (ranked ELITE again). So it's not just the goals that he brings, but the fact that he provides and creates goal scoring opportunities for his teammates. And we all know he can deliver the ball inside F50 too as he is damaging by foot. Now I would prefer for McGovern to play alongside Curnow and McKay rather than replace one, but it is what it is, and regardless he is still superior to all our available options.

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

 

[bigblueboy]

I don't want to throw the chickens amongst the roosters here, but I think Pitto should stay in really, and let Jack come in and play as another tall ish option in the forward line.

TDK has had a career best/rich vein of form in the last month or so, but I still think we need Pitto to help give him back up support from time to time.

Pitto still has plenty to offer imo.

I think it’s possible to work this if TDK/Pittonet primarily rotate off the bench rather than forward.