NTRabbit
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Are we looking to trade up because we've heard that Carlton are planning to select the only undersized Tasmanian KPD at pick 3 and we need to get ahead of them to secure our prize?
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Resource 2024 AFL Draft discussion thread (Wed Nov 20 to Fri Nov 22)
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HaMiSh OnLy SeLeCtS tAsMaNiAnS (even though he’s only selected two in his 12 drafts)
FR0GGY
From a cartel villa in Tuscany
The only possible reason to trade up would be to cut Carlton’s lunch and wouldn’t that be ****ing hilarious after what they’ve done to trade to 3.
From below -
Some clubs believe Sydney Swans Academy defender Joel Cochran could attract a bid anywhere from pick 25 onwards, with one scout saying the Swans had done “a good job of hiding him away”.Cochran won the 2km time trial at the national draft combine last month.
I have always maintained clubs CAN help hide players away if they guarantee to pick them up - put on weight, be out injured, just not try 100% etc - well it sounds like some other clubs do feel Swans are doing this - question marks on Gulden previously also IMO
Draft news
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The 2024 AFL national draft is now less than two weeks away and clubs are close to finalising their draft boards.
Here’s the latest draft news from around the country, after this week’s mock draft of the first round, and continued with an expanded second round.
WHERE THE BIDS ARE SET TO COME
Reigning premier Brisbane is set to avoid paying top dollar for father-son gun Levi Ashcroft, with Richmond looking increasingly unlikely to place a bid on the midfielder at No. 1 in this month’s national draft.If North Melbourne keeps hold of pick 2, a bid on Ashcroft may be left to Carlton at pick 3 — saving the Lions a significant number of draft points.
Brisbane would have to stump up 2,400 points (after a 20 per cent discount) to match a bid on Ashcroft at pick 1, but a bid at pick 3 would only cost it 1787 points.
It could be the difference between heading into next year with a points deficit or not, given the Lions will also need to match a bid on Academy member Sam Marshall around pick 20.
It appears Levi Ashcroft won’t be the first pick of the draft. Picture: Riley Lockett/AFL Photos via Getty Images
Clubs expect two other bids to be placed on Academy members within the top-10 selections on draft night, with St Kilda favoured to bid on Gold Coast Suns Academy member Leo Lombard with one of its first two selections.
The Saints (picks 7 and 8) and Melbourne (pick 9) have also been linked to placing an early bid on Essendon Next Generation Academy (NGA) member Isaac Kako.
Carlton will be sweating on whether a bid comes for father-son Ben Camporeale before its second selection at No. 38, with recruiters having the South Australian midfielder either just before or just after that pick on their draft boards.
Twin brother Lucas is expected to come into play later in the order.
St Kilda NGA member Adrian Cole is considered likely to attract a bid in the late 30s or early 40s, after St Kilda’s third selection which currently stands at No. 32.
Leonardo Lombard of the Gold Coast Suns U18 boys academy kicks the ball during the 2024 Coates Talent League Boys Round 06 match. Picture: Rob Lawson/AFL Photos.
Giants Academy ruckman Logan Smith is also set to come into calculations at that range, with a bid in the 30s considered a good chance.
Some clubs believe Sydney Swans Academy defender Joel Cochran could attract a bid anywhere from pick 25 onwards, with one scout saying the Swans had done “a good job of hiding him away”.
Cochran won the 2km time trial at the national draft combine last month.
Another St Kilda NGA member, defender Lennox Hofmann, is expected to receive a bid later in the draft, while Hawthorn NGA midfielder Cody Anderson is also said to have “lots of fans” from about pick 45 onwards.
Adelaide father-son prospect Tyler Welsh has attracted little interest, despite scouts recognising the marking forward’s potential.
The Crows are therefore likely to be able to secure Welsh — the son of former Adelaide goalkicker Scott — with their second and final pick in the draft, which currently sits at No. 64.
North Melbourne should be able to secure River Stevens — the son of two-time premiership player Anthony — as a rookie.
PICK SWAP WINDOW COMING TO A CLOSE
Clubs are poised to take their current draft hands into November 20 as the pick swap window comes to a close.The trading window opened immediately after the trade period but closes at 5pm Friday.
Trades are then unable to be completed until draft night.
No deals have yet been done during the window, despite some discussions which have largely centred around North Melbourne’s pick 2.
That selection has been shopped around to Richmond, while Adelaide has also engaged in talks with the Kangaroos about trading pick 4 to jump a couple of spots up the board.
North Melbourne has been strongly linked to Gippsland Power bolter Alix Tauru at pick 2, but could likely still secure him if it slides back a few spots in the orde
THE NEW ‘FOOTY FACTORY’ CHURNING OUT PROSPECTS
Commentator Brian Taylor used to constantly reference the Calder Cannons “footy factory”.These days, it is fellow Coates Talent League club Sandringham Dragons that is churning out AFL players.
In 2021, the Dragons had eight players selected in the national draft – including No. 3 pick Finn Callaghan – plus one Next Generation Academy selection.
In 2022, there were six players selected from the Dragons – headlined by No. 2 pick Will Ashcroft – plus one zone selection.
Then in 2023, the club had seven players picked up through the national draft, plus two players who were selected in the rookie draft.
Harry Armstrong is likely to be one of the Dragons’ latest draftees come November 21. Picture: Martin Keep/AFL Photos via Getty Images.
If you add in Cooper Lord – a mid-season draft selection for Carlton this year – that makes 10 players from last year’s crop and 26 players across three years who have found AFL homes.
This year, the Dragons are every chance to have double-figure draftees once again.
Levi Ashcroft, Harry Armstrong, Murphy Reid, Taj Hotton, Luke Trainor, Sam Marshall and Harrison Oliver all shape as top-30 selections, while Adrian Cole, Lennox Hofmann and Josh Dolan are also firmly in the frame to have their names read out a little later in the order.
TOP 60 RANKED: OUR EXPERTS’ FINAL POWER RANKINGS OF THE YEAR
In addition, there has also been interest in a number of other players, including Luke Kennedy, Jhett Haeata, Lachie Voss, Mitch Kirkwood-Scott and Bailey McKenzie.
Recruiters are tipping around 65 picks in this year’s national draft, meaning an extraordinary percentage of this year’s draft pool looks set to be plucked from Sandringham.
Is there an example you have where that's happened? That pre draft year is crucial for the development of players, no one is a lock to be successful and losing that year feels extremely risky. Big ask of a young guy who loves football to not try 100%. Can't see that happening.
*other than Gulden, who had a more than decent draft year and was projected as high as 15. Dropped down the order likely due to being 175cm
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I know the common opinion is that the top 4 of the draft is very even, but maybe our recruitment team have identified 1 or 2 prospects that they consider a level above the other two. If they have and they may have decided to back themselves and go hard for pick 2 to secure him.
My preference is to keep pick 4 if a trade up requires us to use our future first.. if we can somehow manufacture a trade without it then go for it. Maybe that is what is holding up any trade, North want our future first but we are refusing to give it up.
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My view is the Kangas are crazy to use pick 2 on Tauru but also can’t slide too far with Dees a chance to take him at 5 from my understanding.
Therefore, Crows are actually the most obvious team for Kamgas to deal with. Problem is our best most appropriate collateral being our F2 went for Peatling (hence why delayed so much in trade week) which means anything using our F1 is out of the question (way too much) and our bunch of thirds next to useless.
My hope was we could bundle a couple of our F3’s for a F2 from a contending team that needs points next year.. then rely on Kangas accepting unders but still getting a bonus F2 whilst getting Tauru at 4
As much as it’s even at the top we would have a clear talent preference and getting pick 2 for a relatively small future outlay (like Curtin deal last year) seems a no brainer to me
Therefore, Crows are actually the most obvious team for Kamgas to deal with. Problem is our best most appropriate collateral being our F2 went for Peatling (hence why delayed so much in trade week) which means anything using our F1 is out of the question (way too much) and our bunch of thirds next to useless.
My hope was we could bundle a couple of our F3’s for a F2 from a contending team that needs points next year.. then rely on Kangas accepting unders but still getting a bonus F2 whilst getting Tauru at 4
As much as it’s even at the top we would have a clear talent preference and getting pick 2 for a relatively small future outlay (like Curtin deal last year) seems a no brainer to me
Well the article gives an example. I also mentioned Gulden who went from a mid range pick to rising star round one the following year.
I think we may have tanked Welsh. Let’s see if he is still almost walking the end of 2km runs in 12 mths time
Clearly this isn’t the stuff anyone can definitively prove but one of my mantras - work and life - is “show me the incentive and I will show/explain the behaviour” ie clearly meaning if you can get a NGA/FS son for a materially lower pick in a draft then there is incentive - only if both parties have a clear understanding the individual in question is getting picked up - to try and tank a little in some cases.
Not dissimilar to saying do you think clubs have tanked historically for better draft pick positioning. Hard to prove conclusively but I would bet it’s happened
Shifty Crow
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I don’t think clubs tank players
It might be more to do with Welsh being a little too comfy knowing he had a pathway to the crows list
Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
Pretty much what we thought about Welsh , not really expecting an opposition bid and we just take him with our later pick in 60s
From below -
Some clubs believe Sydney Swans Academy defender Joel Cochran could attract a bid anywhere from pick 25 onwards, with one scout saying the Swans had done “a good job of hiding him away”.
Cochran won the 2km time trial at the national draft combine last month.
I have always maintained clubs CAN help hide players away if they guarantee to pick them up - put on weight, be out injured, just not try 100% etc - well it sounds like some other clubs do feel Swans are doing this - question marks on Gulden previously also IMO
Draft news
Don't miss out on the headlines from Draft news. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Follow
The 2024 AFL national draft is now less than two weeks away and clubs are close to finalising their draft boards.
Here’s the latest draft news from around the country, after this week’s mock draft of the first round, and continued with an expanded second round.
WHERE THE BIDS ARE SET TO COME
Reigning premier Brisbane is set to avoid paying top dollar for father-son gun Levi Ashcroft, with Richmond looking increasingly unlikely to place a bid on the midfielder at No. 1 in this month’s national draft.
If North Melbourne keeps hold of pick 2, a bid on Ashcroft may be left to Carlton at pick 3 — saving the Lions a significant number of draft points.
Brisbane would have to stump up 2,400 points (after a 20 per cent discount) to match a bid on Ashcroft at pick 1, but a bid at pick 3 would only cost it 1787 points.
It could be the difference between heading into next year with a points deficit or not, given the Lions will also need to match a bid on Academy member Sam Marshall around pick 20.
It appears Levi Ashcroft won’t be the first pick of the draft. Picture: Riley Lockett/AFL Photos via Getty Images
Clubs expect two other bids to be placed on Academy members within the top-10 selections on draft night, with St Kilda favoured to bid on Gold Coast Suns Academy member Leo Lombard with one of its first two selections.
The Saints (picks 7 and 8) and Melbourne (pick 9) have also been linked to placing an early bid on Essendon Next Generation Academy (NGA) member Isaac Kako.
Carlton will be sweating on whether a bid comes for father-son Ben Camporeale before its second selection at No. 38, with recruiters having the South Australian midfielder either just before or just after that pick on their draft boards.
Twin brother Lucas is expected to come into play later in the order.
St Kilda NGA member Adrian Cole is considered likely to attract a bid in the late 30s or early 40s, after St Kilda’s third selection which currently stands at No. 32.
Leonardo Lombard of the Gold Coast Suns U18 boys academy kicks the ball during the 2024 Coates Talent League Boys Round 06 match. Picture: Rob Lawson/AFL Photos.
Giants Academy ruckman Logan Smith is also set to come into calculations at that range, with a bid in the 30s considered a good chance.
Some clubs believe Sydney Swans Academy defender Joel Cochran could attract a bid anywhere from pick 25 onwards, with one scout saying the Swans had done “a good job of hiding him away”.
Cochran won the 2km time trial at the national draft combine last month.
Another St Kilda NGA member, defender Lennox Hofmann, is expected to receive a bid later in the draft, while Hawthorn NGA midfielder Cody Anderson is also said to have “lots of fans” from about pick 45 onwards.
Adelaide father-son prospect Tyler Welsh has attracted little interest, despite scouts recognising the marking forward’s potential.
The Crows are therefore likely to be able to secure Welsh — the son of former Adelaide goalkicker Scott — with their second and final pick in the draft, which currently sits at No. 64.
North Melbourne should be able to secure River Stevens — the son of two-time premiership player Anthony — as a rookie.
PICK SWAP WINDOW COMING TO A CLOSE
Clubs are poised to take their current draft hands into November 20 as the pick swap window comes to a close.
The trading window opened immediately after the trade period but closes at 5pm Friday.
Trades are then unable to be completed until draft night.
No deals have yet been done during the window, despite some discussions which have largely centred around North Melbourne’s pick 2.
That selection has been shopped around to Richmond, while Adelaide has also engaged in talks with the Kangaroos about trading pick 4 to jump a couple of spots up the board.
North Melbourne has been strongly linked to Gippsland Power bolter Alix Tauru at pick 2, but could likely still secure him if it slides back a few spots in the orde
THE NEW ‘FOOTY FACTORY’ CHURNING OUT PROSPECTS
Commentator Brian Taylor used to constantly reference the Calder Cannons “footy factory”.
These days, it is fellow Coates Talent League club Sandringham Dragons that is churning out AFL players.
In 2021, the Dragons had eight players selected in the national draft – including No. 3 pick Finn Callaghan – plus one Next Generation Academy selection.
In 2022, there were six players selected from the Dragons – headlined by No. 2 pick Will Ashcroft – plus one zone selection.
Then in 2023, the club had seven players picked up through the national draft, plus two players who were selected in the rookie draft.
Harry Armstrong is likely to be one of the Dragons’ latest draftees come November 21. Picture: Martin Keep/AFL Photos via Getty Images.
If you add in Cooper Lord – a mid-season draft selection for Carlton this year – that makes 10 players from last year’s crop and 26 players across three years who have found AFL homes.
This year, the Dragons are every chance to have double-figure draftees once again.
Levi Ashcroft, Harry Armstrong, Murphy Reid, Taj Hotton, Luke Trainor, Sam Marshall and Harrison Oliver all shape as top-30 selections, while Adrian Cole, Lennox Hofmann and Josh Dolan are also firmly in the frame to have their names read out a little later in the order.
TOP 60 RANKED: OUR EXPERTS’ FINAL POWER RANKINGS OF THE YEAR
In addition, there has also been interest in a number of other players, including Luke Kennedy, Jhett Haeata, Lachie Voss, Mitch Kirkwood-Scott and Bailey McKenzie.
Recruiters are tipping around 65 picks in this year’s national draft, meaning an extraordinary percentage of this year’s draft pool looks set to be plucked from Sandringham.
3 of the first 4 Rising Star nominees last year were drafted lower than Gulden was, including Dempsey from the rookie list, who won the whole thing. Without doing a deep dive on last year's nominees, looks like only around 8 were drafted higher than Gulden was. Means nothing.
Gulden played for the Allies and senior footy in the NEAFL in his draft year. Was #22 in Cal Twomey's phantom form guide. He was hardly hidden away or told not to try by the Swans.
It’s clearly a subjective thought but what isn’t subjective is there is a clear incentive for clubs to try and do this,
I probably dont have much more to add but let’s see what Welsh is running next year and if he is still 4-8kg overweight (to the eye)
Maybe, I can’t prove it so clearly just speculating. Hopefully Welsh gets very fit and focussed, loses weight and runs much better in 12 mths time. That would be a nice “coincidence”
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It seems simple if we could generate that f2. If north want Tauru, either use pick 2 on him or look to trade with us for 4 and use that on him and gain an extra future pick. Same result but they get an extra pick...seems like a win win if we are keen to get in ahead of carlton
Agree 100%. It’s just getting the F2 that’s the issue and with trading picks now getting suspended until draft night it looks increasingly unlikely as clearly doing MULTIPLE deals (us trading with a third party for their F2, then another deal with Kangas) once the clock starts ticking on draft night for PICK 2 seems very unlikely IMO
I reckon that’s why Reidy was holding out so late for Peatling to try and get GWS F2 as part of deal
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Any genuine examples where clubs have hidden high end talent from other recruiters?
From below -
Some clubs believe Sydney Swans Academy defender Joel Cochran could attract a bid anywhere from pick 25 onwards, with one scout saying the Swans had done “a good job of hiding him away”.
Cochran won the 2km time trial at the national draft combine last month.
I have always maintained clubs CAN help hide players away if they guarantee to pick them up - put on weight, be out injured, just not try 100% etc - well it sounds like some other clubs do feel Swans are doing this - question marks on Gulden previously also IMO
Draft news
Don't miss out on the headlines from Draft news. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Follow
The 2024 AFL national draft is now less than two weeks away and clubs are close to finalising their draft boards.
Here’s the latest draft news from around the country, after this week’s mock draft of the first round, and continued with an expanded second round.
WHERE THE BIDS ARE SET TO COME
Reigning premier Brisbane is set to avoid paying top dollar for father-son gun Levi Ashcroft, with Richmond looking increasingly unlikely to place a bid on the midfielder at No. 1 in this month’s national draft.
If North Melbourne keeps hold of pick 2, a bid on Ashcroft may be left to Carlton at pick 3 — saving the Lions a significant number of draft points.
Brisbane would have to stump up 2,400 points (after a 20 per cent discount) to match a bid on Ashcroft at pick 1, but a bid at pick 3 would only cost it 1787 points.
It could be the difference between heading into next year with a points deficit or not, given the Lions will also need to match a bid on Academy member Sam Marshall around pick 20.
It appears Levi Ashcroft won’t be the first pick of the draft. Picture: Riley Lockett/AFL Photos via Getty Images
Clubs expect two other bids to be placed on Academy members within the top-10 selections on draft night, with St Kilda favoured to bid on Gold Coast Suns Academy member Leo Lombard with one of its first two selections.
The Saints (picks 7 and 8) and Melbourne (pick 9) have also been linked to placing an early bid on Essendon Next Generation Academy (NGA) member Isaac Kako.
Carlton will be sweating on whether a bid comes for father-son Ben Camporeale before its second selection at No. 38, with recruiters having the South Australian midfielder either just before or just after that pick on their draft boards.
Twin brother Lucas is expected to come into play later in the order.
St Kilda NGA member Adrian Cole is considered likely to attract a bid in the late 30s or early 40s, after St Kilda’s third selection which currently stands at No. 32.
Leonardo Lombard of the Gold Coast Suns U18 boys academy kicks the ball during the 2024 Coates Talent League Boys Round 06 match. Picture: Rob Lawson/AFL Photos.
Giants Academy ruckman Logan Smith is also set to come into calculations at that range, with a bid in the 30s considered a good chance.
Some clubs believe Sydney Swans Academy defender Joel Cochran could attract a bid anywhere from pick 25 onwards, with one scout saying the Swans had done “a good job of hiding him away”.
Cochran won the 2km time trial at the national draft combine last month.
Another St Kilda NGA member, defender Lennox Hofmann, is expected to receive a bid later in the draft, while Hawthorn NGA midfielder Cody Anderson is also said to have “lots of fans” from about pick 45 onwards.
Adelaide father-son prospect Tyler Welsh has attracted little interest, despite scouts recognising the marking forward’s potential.
The Crows are therefore likely to be able to secure Welsh — the son of former Adelaide goalkicker Scott — with their second and final pick in the draft, which currently sits at No. 64.
North Melbourne should be able to secure River Stevens — the son of two-time premiership player Anthony — as a rookie.
PICK SWAP WINDOW COMING TO A CLOSE
Clubs are poised to take their current draft hands into November 20 as the pick swap window comes to a close.
The trading window opened immediately after the trade period but closes at 5pm Friday.
Trades are then unable to be completed until draft night.
No deals have yet been done during the window, despite some discussions which have largely centred around North Melbourne’s pick 2.
That selection has been shopped around to Richmond, while Adelaide has also engaged in talks with the Kangaroos about trading pick 4 to jump a couple of spots up the board.
North Melbourne has been strongly linked to Gippsland Power bolter Alix Tauru at pick 2, but could likely still secure him if it slides back a few spots in the orde
THE NEW ‘FOOTY FACTORY’ CHURNING OUT PROSPECTS
Commentator Brian Taylor used to constantly reference the Calder Cannons “footy factory”.
These days, it is fellow Coates Talent League club Sandringham Dragons that is churning out AFL players.
In 2021, the Dragons had eight players selected in the national draft – including No. 3 pick Finn Callaghan – plus one Next Generation Academy selection.
In 2022, there were six players selected from the Dragons – headlined by No. 2 pick Will Ashcroft – plus one zone selection.
Then in 2023, the club had seven players picked up through the national draft, plus two players who were selected in the rookie draft.
Harry Armstrong is likely to be one of the Dragons’ latest draftees come November 21. Picture: Martin Keep/AFL Photos via Getty Images.
If you add in Cooper Lord – a mid-season draft selection for Carlton this year – that makes 10 players from last year’s crop and 26 players across three years who have found AFL homes.
This year, the Dragons are every chance to have double-figure draftees once again.
Levi Ashcroft, Harry Armstrong, Murphy Reid, Taj Hotton, Luke Trainor, Sam Marshall and Harrison Oliver all shape as top-30 selections, while Adrian Cole, Lennox Hofmann and Josh Dolan are also firmly in the frame to have their names read out a little later in the order.
TOP 60 RANKED: OUR EXPERTS’ FINAL POWER RANKINGS OF THE YEAR
In addition, there has also been interest in a number of other players, including Luke Kennedy, Jhett Haeata, Lachie Voss, Mitch Kirkwood-Scott and Bailey McKenzie.
Recruiters are tipping around 65 picks in this year’s national draft, meaning an extraordinary percentage of this year’s draft pool looks set to be plucked from Sandringham.
Or just another fantasy?
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If the Crows are trying to trade up you would have to think it's likely in the hope Lalor is there at 2 or to guarantee we get Draper? Difficult to see them doing it for the others IMO.
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And our Jeffcrowe rated him a genuine 1st rounder having seen a lot of him. I think AFL recruiters may have put too much emphasis on his size?
I think the more likely explanation in those circumstances is that he would have pulled his head in, especially being at the club full time.
I’d give more credence to tanking if he rocked up to the start of pre-season in great shape.
But I’m still very much of the position that the club would prefer him to be in peak physical condition rather than save a few late spots in the draft. He didn’t drop down because of his combine - he has been in free fall all year. The so called draft saving of tanking his 2km would be insignificant.
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