Adelaide AFL 2024 Midseason Draft

[Danger in Texas]

Wouldn't have minded getting him.

But to think we'd try to manipulate in game results because he's such an extraordinary prospect ...

C'mon. That's one of the silliest things said on here.

I’m not beat up about it, as long as we target players with similar skills and pace in the off-season, god knows we need more of it

 

[Brenton Davy]

It's hardly north beating gold coast to lose out on Reid christ

Boom

 

[jackster83]

It's hardly north beating gold coast to lose out on Reid christ

Or us beating Hawthorn to miss out on Finn Callaghan.

 

[rabidcrow]

Yeah nah (bolded bit). IF the club was keen to bring Beecken in and had any sniff that Brisbane were also interested, then some slight in game management last week could have meant a 90 point win instead of a 99 point win and we get the pick before Brisbane and get both the guys we want. Its not as if we had to toss the game to be below Brisbane. Now if it was another club keen, then it would have been irrelevant but as us and Brisbane are neck and neck, we had the ability to control the outcome to work for us an didn't.....assuming we wanted Beecken who from reports looks a decent prospect.

So that assumes that after Brisbane lost which was just before our game (1 hr or so) our recruiting team sat down with a calculator and worked out the various combinations of scores and percentages that would ensure we stayed below Brisbane

Knowing of course going into the game it was seen as pretty 50/50 given West Coasts form but obviously us as favourites being at home

So I assume next step - at half time let’s say - Hamish goes down to see Nicks and says “mate we have to slow down, there might be a bloke we are interested in - 6th rated on our MSD list - that Brisbane could be interested in, don’t know for certain though - and if we keep going at this rate we might land above them on percentage and they get the pick first

Nicks I am sure would have said - okay well I will rest Soligo, I will put Daws up forward for a bit, that should do it, keep the margin under 90 points and then we should be right

And then the idiot stuffs it up - decided not to tell the boys explicitly to just kick around for the last 15 mins and not score, so we might get a guy we like a bit that Brisbane (or any of the other 13 clubs that had a pick) might or might not rate

Thinking through it - you are spot on - our guys are just disorganised and unprofessional!!




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[NSolis]

How would you suggest we could have manipulated the outcome to ensure we didn't finish above Brisbane?

And do you seriously believe that any AFL club would do this in order to get a better draft pick in a mid season draft? Imagine getting caught doing this and getting sanctioned and penalized by the AFL, all just to try and improve our mid season draft pick.

The answer provided here has been that we should have rested players who might have benefited from management (say Walker) rather than going all out for the win, given the ease of the opposition and the reward of the MSD pick order boost. Problem with this from my perspective is that I don't think we are in a position to be that certain of a win against West Coast at all, even if we do care about the MSD. I think we went in strong favourites because of West Coast's away record but certainly was not predicting a 100 point win beforehand. I saw way more people saying 'danger game' than 'lets rest Tex for this walkover'. People were even lamenting how sad it was that a year ago we beat this team by 20 goals and now we were in for a close one.

Things that have to be true for this to be the right decision include:

• We felt we'd beat WC easily regardless of whether we picked our best team or not, so we felt this was a good time to rest players.
• We wanted a second player in the MSD, and we were worried Brisbane specifically might take that player before us if we passed them on the ladder.
• We knew or suspected Hawthorn would beat Brisbane comfortably (this game was played on the same day) to prepare an extra player or two for the game to enable last minute changes. If Brisbane win that game this is all irrelevant as we're below them on the ladder anyway.

Are these things actually predictable enough and is the outcome valuable enough that we should have been acting on this with an adjusted approach before kickoff? It's just demanding absolutely perfect foresight from the club for the most minimal of conceivable gains. Extremely likely we just don't pick a second player anyway given that Hamish said they were interested in around 10 guys and this one went at pick 17, or that if we do pick one they just play SANFL for half a season and get delisted.

If the argument is just 'we should have rested players because this was always an easy win' that's fine, but in that case all the MSD stuff is irrelevant.

 

[bmac84]

Yeah nah (bolded bit). IF the club was keen to bring Beecken in and had any sniff that Brisbane were also interested, then some slight in game management last week could have meant a 90 point win instead of a 99 point win and we get the pick before Brisbane and get both the guys we want. Its not as if we had to toss the game to be below Brisbane. Now if it was another club keen, then it would have been irrelevant but as us and Brisbane are neck and neck, we had the ability to control the outcome to work for us an didn't.....assuming we wanted Beecken who from reports looks a decent prospect.

Imagine missing finals on % cos we tanked to get some bloke no-one gave a shit about 2 weeks ago. Of all the things to complain about the club for (and there are many) this is really not it.

 

[Crows I Am]

How?..you mean like take off a couple of our prime movers, instruct the side in the last 2 minutes or whatever to slow the game down and possess the ball, that sort of stuff.

And in answer to the second part, if we are 85+ points up at that stage, do you really think the AFL is going to investigate resting a couple of your key mids and a side playing to wind the game down instead of trying to get that 1 or 2 extra goals in junk time?? really??

How do you explain to the team the reason for slowing it down? "Guys we have a chance to drop below Brisbane on the ladder and get a better pick in the MSD... "

Again, you are taking a massive risk here, all it needs is one disgruntled player or coach in the future to come out and tell someone that they were instructed to manipulate the result to improve our draft hand. We would be the laughing stock of the competition and smashed by every media outlet just like after the gold coast camp.

 

[Crow till I die]

So that assumes that after Brisbane lost which was just before our game (1 hr or so) our recruiting team sat down with a calculator and worked out the various combinations of scores and percentages that would ensure we stayed below Brisbane

Knowing of course going into the game it was seen as pretty 50/50 given West Coasts form but obviously us as favourites being at home

So I assume next step - at half time let’s say - Hamish goes down to see Nicks and says “mate we have to slow down, there might be a bloke we are interested in - 6th rated on our MSD list - that Brisbane could be interested in, don’t know for certain though - and if we keep going at this rate we might land above them on percentage and they get the pick first

Nicks I am sure would have said - okay well I will rest Soligo, I will put Daws up forward for a bit, that should do it, keep the margin under 90 points and then we should be right

And then the idiot stuffs it up - decided not to tell the boys explicitly to just kick around for the last 15 mins and not score, so we might get a guy we like a bit that Brisbane (or any of the other 13 clubs that had a pick) might or might not rate

Thinking through it - you are spot on - our guys are just disorganised and unprofessional!!




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Or maybe they just looked at the afl app and put ladders to live and watched the % in game..I mean that sounds like rocket science to me

And the hardest bit would have been when we were getting close to Brisbane right at the end of the game and they would be looking at each other thinking, how to we rest our prime mids in the last couple of minutes and how do we send out our runner to instruct the side to play tempo footy and just hold possession. That sounds like it would have been almost impossible to pull off

 

[Crow till I die]

Imagine missing finals on % cos we tanked to get some bloke no-one gave a shit about 2 weeks ago. Of all the things to complain about the club for (and there are many) this is really not it.

What if said shit player happened to end up a 300 game legend of the club I mean were talking about 1 goal or so in a 99 point win!!

 

[Scorpus]

Imagine missing finals on % cos we tanked to get some bloke no-one gave a shit about 2 weeks ago. Of all the things to complain about the club for (and there are many) this is really not it.

I think you're overblowing the situation

The question is really whether having 1.5% more percentage or a second MSD pick (possibly a player we liked) is better

I don't believe this is some crazy outrageous situation to suggest. It's a toss up. The percentage and MSD pick are most likely not a huge deal or going to impact our chances of success, so going down one path or the other isn't clearly better. Seems like a fair discussion point to me.

And no one is talking about throwing the entire West Coast match, it's either smashing them, or smashing them.

We also didn't really have to do all that much in game to get the outcome we wanted if we went down the MSD pick path. Few small last quarter adjustments and we win by a huge total instead of an even huger total.

This talk of it being problematic to beat West Coast by 80 instead of 99 is a bit silly. But ultimately it's not going to make much difference whichever path we took

 

[Crow till I die]

How do you explain to the team the reason for slowing it down? "Guys we have a chance to drop below Brisbane on the ladder and get a better pick in the MSD... "

Again, you are taking a massive risk here, all it needs is one disgruntled player or coach in the future to come out and tell someone that they were instructed to manipulate the result to improve our draft hand. We would be the laughing stock of the competition and smashed by every media outlet just like after the gold coast camp.

What..they train for that stuff and when the game is miles beyond doubt, the coaches wanted to implement it to see how it works in real time..what an opportunity to try that sort of stuff out.

And who says you are manipulating a result with a couple of minutes to go, resting key players for an interstate trip next week when the game is beyond doubt and playing tempo footy for a bit is what all clubs do. Now if you said pushing Tex to full back, Fog to half back, ROB to a wing etc etc, then yeah, it looks funny

 

[Crow till I die]

I think you're overblowing the situation

The question is really whether having 1.5% more percentage or a second MSD pick (possibly a player we liked) is better

I don't believe this is some crazy outrageous situation to suggest. It's a toss up. The percentage and MSD pick are most likely not a huge deal or going to impact our chances of success, so going down one path or the other isn't clearly better. Seems like a fair discussion point to me.

And no one is talking about throwing the entire West Coast match, it's either smashing them, or smashing them.

We also didn't really have to do all that much in game to get the outcome we wanted if we went down the MSD pick path. Few small last quarter adjustments and we win by a huge total instead of an even huger total.

Yep - its not hard. I just call it street smart to slightly and i mean slightly temper a big win to enable us to possibly go for a player we want that we now miss on. Oh well, we move on

 

[bmac84]

I think you're overblowing the situation

The question is really whether having 1.5% more percentage or a second MSD pick (possibly a player we liked) is better

I don't believe this is some crazy outrageous situation to suggest. It's a toss up. The percentage and MSD pick are most likely not a huge deal or going to impact our chances of success, so going down one path or the other isn't clearly better. Seems like a fair discussion point to me.

And no one is talking about throwing the entire West Coast match, it's either smashing them, or smashing them.

We also didn't really have to do all that much in game to get the outcome we wanted if we went down the MSD pick path. Few small last quarter adjustments and we win by a huge total instead of an even huger total.

Telling your players it's ok to not go 100% is a dangerous line to cross. And for the sake of the MSD where literally every other team passed on the player at least once. Lunacy.

 

[rabidcrow]

Or maybe they just looked at the afl app and put ladders to live and watched the % in game..I mean that sounds like rocket science to me

And the hardest bit would have been when we were getting close to Brisbane right at the end of the game and they would be looking at each other thinking, how to we rest our prime mids in the last couple of minutes and how do we send out our runner to instruct the side to play tempo footy and just hold possession. That sounds like it would have been almost impossible to pull off

It still requires even having it on the radar. It requires us suspecting that Brisbane really want this guy - who was also likely down the list of our 10 players of interest - and also that no one else wanted him

Note only 2 players were picked after Beeken, Richmond and Brisbane passed on there other picks

Also note - we only kicked 3 goals in the last quarter - it’s not like we put the foot down

The concept your suggesting is actually pretty ridiculous all things considered


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[rabidcrow]

What if said shit player happened to end up a 300 game legend of the club I mean were talking about 1 goal or so in a 99 point win!!

He is 24 and been passed up in like 6 years of national, rookie, preseason and mid season drafts - plus the opportunity to be a supplemental selection. But I guess he could play until he was 40 to get to his 300


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[Crow till I die]

It still requires even having it on the radar. It requires us suspecting that Brisbane really want this guy - who was also likely down the list of our 10 players of interest - and also that no one else wanted him

Note only 2 players were picked after Beeken, Richmond and Brisbane passed on there other picks

Also note - we only kicked 3 goals in the last quarter - it’s not like we put the foot down

The concept your suggesting is actually pretty ridiculous all things considered


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I'll just let you re read my initial post on it that actually answers your questions

Adelaide AFL 2024 Midseason Draft

Why would resting Sog, Smith and Tex be tanking? You'd be doing it to improve upcoming performances. I thought we were talking about leaving players out in the hope that we'd reduce our winning margin against West Coast to improve our MSD draft hand so we could get whichever player we want at...

www.bigfooty.com

Yeah nah (bolded bit). IF the club was keen to bring Beecken in and had any sniff that Brisbane were also interested, then some slight in game management last week could have meant a 90 point win instead of a 99 point win and we get the pick before Brisbane and get both the guys we want. Its not as if we had to toss the game to be below Brisbane. Now if it was another club keen, then it would have been irrelevant but as us and Brisbane are neck and neck, we had the ability to control the outcome to work for us an didn't.....assuming we wanted Beecken who from reports looks a decent prospect.

 

[Crow till I die]

He is 24 and been passed up in like 6 years of national, rookie, preseason and mid season drafts - plus the opportunity to be a supplemental selection. But I guess he could play until he was 40 to get to his 300


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Yeah, my bad...maybe 250 games then (he is 23 not 24 - nitpicking)

 

[Scorpus]

Telling your players it's ok to not go 100% is a dangerous line to cross. And for the sake of the MSD where literally every other team passed on the player at least once. Lunacy.

There's no telling players not to go 100%

Rest some players, use it as a chance to try some new strategies. All fair game when you're winning by 80

 

[bmac84]

There's no telling players not to go 100%

Rest some players, use it as a chance to try some new strategies. All fair game when you're winning by 80

Nobody with any sense is doing anything for the sake of getting pick 17 in the mid season draft instead of pick 18.

If we were talking about the national draft and we were no shot at finals then sure, start McHenry in the guts.

 

[Sanders]

Nobody with any sense is doing anything for the sake of getting pick 17 in the mid season draft instead of pick 18.

How is this even being discussed?

 

[119others]

Or maybe they just looked at the afl app and put ladders to live and watched the % in game..I mean that sounds like rocket science to me

And the hardest bit would have been when we were getting close to Brisbane right at the end of the game and they would be looking at each other thinking, how to we rest our prime mids in the last couple of minutes and how do we send out our runner to instruct the side to play tempo footy and just hold possession. That sounds like it would have been almost impossible to pull off

After losing first and second round picks in 2012 and 2013 for Tippett, is the cost/benefit really worth it? This isn’t H Reid as the prize. It’s pick 16 ish in the likely spuddish filled MSD

 

[50BC]

Some truly ridiculous arguments here, overall success rate for MSD picks since they came in is what 10-15%?, but after about pick 10 it must fall to pretty damn near 0%

A couple good players are found each year, some play a handful games before disappearing or just clogging a list, or being recycled somewhere else, the rest are never even seen at league level.

 

[Crow till I die]

After losing first and second round picks in 2012 and 2013 for Tippett, is the cost/benefit really worth it? This isn’t H Reid as the prize. It’s pick 16 ish in the likely spuddish filled MSD

This losing draft picks thing in no way applies to a team managing the clock at the end of a game and resting a few primary players for next weeks game at the end of the game so that a near 100 point win is closer to a near 90 point win...its just not