Resource 2024 AFL Draft discussion thread (Wed Nov 20 to Fri Nov 22)

[eaglevision]

Good work, can you not re-rookie Burgess, pick up a ruck and then grab welsh?

I could, but there will almost certainly be a couple of players that in my view would be better on the list than Burgess at pick 4 in the rookie draft.

If I’d known in advance I would have delisted one more contracted player from the main list to open up another list spot for a fourth pick.

I have a strategy and a very specific player in mind for pick 27 (it’s come in) but he’s touch and go to be there.

 

[arsene wenger1]

Nope it’s real. O’Sullivan is on QF693 landing tonight.

 

[spenze]

We can't just cut a contracted player because we don't have the 2024 cap space to pay out their 2025 contract.

Look, I promise we've tried a dozen ways to get more picks for our club, but annoyingly were only taking pick 4 as a live pick.

If we want to, we can delist a player and pay them out.

 

[GROTTO]

I got a feeling kangas might just take Tauru at pick 2 , Lalor the only other possibility for them if they stay there at 2

Richmond tossing up Lalor or Draper

Carlton tossing up FOS or Draper

Crows maybe get the choice of one of Lalor , Draper , Smith , Langford ( unlikely Lalor is there )

I think that’s the 4 we’d have in order and it’s just a matter of the order and who is there at the pick

Maybe the trade up to pick 2 guys on this thread are right and we are a chance to push up to 2 if Lalor is there , lots of recruiters have Lalor at 1 due to ceiling

If Roos take Tauru at #2, reckon Draper makes it to #4.

Whoops, my bad with picks... rule out the Dons.

Rumours that Dees may take Tauru at #5, so looks like Roos may need to take him at pick #2.

Ignoring key position players in previous drafts is coming back to haunt them...

If the Roos are 100% committed to taking Tauru with their 1st at Pick 2, they will 100% accept any offer from the Crows. It makes no sense for them not to, as there is almost effectively a zero probability that the Crows or Blues will take him at Picks 2 or 3. The Dee's at Pick 5 is a genuine risk to take Tauru which makes the Roo's trading with the Tigers for Pick 6 an unlikely scenario.

Where things get real interesting is if the Crows do land Pick 2 and overlook Draper.

Similarly the same can be said if the pick order of the draft remains the same and Tigers, Roos and Blues overlook the local kid for Draper.

 

[Vader]

If we want to, we can delist a player and pay them out.

Assuming we have the desire to do so and the ability to include their 2025 salary in our 2024 salary cap, neither of which appears to be the case.

Time to get past the denial phase and accept the reality that this is not happening.

On SM-X205 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Agree

There’s no way you’d waste an extremely crucial year of development to tank

Also the father / son rule is a far bigger advantage for 1st round talents than late picks where other clubs aren’t keen

We aren’t that smart to tank that well

I’ve seen many kids over the years lose their careers between 16 yo and 18 yo by not doing the right thing then starting behind the 8 ball and being washed out within 12-24 months

Haven’t given up hope though

IMO the Welsh scenario is a bit of a storm in a teacup

At the beginning of the year, when certain media had him in the Top 10 Draft picks ....posters were fapping over Welsh, but as soon as the media went quiet, so did this boards enthusiasm .....and in fact have gone cold on Welsh

His talent hasn't disappeared ....yes he had a spasmodic year ....but I'm more about talent / attributes than form at this age

I agree re wash-out of kids between 16-18 ....I've seen it so often myself
If it was an attitudinal issue, the Crows would not have nominated Welsh ....the fact the Club got him to play SANFL, and nominated him fairly quickly, indicates to me he was always in the Clubs plans

I'm not worried in the slightest about his testing

 

[Jeffcrowe]

How many picks will be eaten up by matching bids do you think? 10? 15? And hence how many spots will our pick 64 move up and therefore at what pick could Welsh be bid on and we'd still have points?

I think it’s unlikely Welsh is bid on by another club and we will just use 64 and pick him , it could end up being around pick 50 or so

 

[ABAB]

IMO the Welsh scenario is a bit of a storm in a teacup

At the beginning of the year, when certain media had him in the Top 10 Draft picks ....posters were fapping over Welsh, but as soon as the media went quiet, so did this boards enthusiasm .....and in fact have gone cold on Welsh

His talent hasn't disappeared ....yes he had a spasmodic year ....but I'm more about talent / attributes than form at this age

I agree re wash-out of kids between 16-18 ....I've seen it so often myself
If it was an attitudinal issue, the Crows would not have nominated Welsh ....the fact the Club got him to play SANFL, and nominated him fairly quickly, indicates to me he was always in the Clubs plans

I'm not worried in the slightest about his testing

Provided his lack of "dedication" was just because he didn't do year 12 and wasn't a full time AFL player so didn't have any structure this year for a 17 years old which is understandable.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Provided his lack of "dedication" was just because he didn't do year 12 and wasn't a full time AFL player so didn't have any structure this year for a 17 years old which is understandable.

I'm sure the Club has analysed all his activities this year ....remember, in U18's the rules restrict Welsh to play inside 50

No need to focus on 2kn time trials at the ND....particularly if you already know where your 2025 home is going to be

Maybe that's not the right approach, but we're talking about 17 yo's here .....JHF was also pretty immature, refusing ice baths
I'm sure dad will be in his ear as well

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I'm sure the Club has analysed all his activities this year ....remember, in U18's the rules restrict Welsh to play inside 50

No need to focus on 2kn time trials at the ND....particularly if you already know where your 2025 home is going to be

Maybe that's not the right approach, but we're talking about 17 yo's here .....JHF was also pretty immature, refusing ice baths
I'm sure dad will be in his ear as well

Any advantage we would have got out of the father / son rule is gone , now it’s just a matter of faith in his talent and taking him because we know him and what he can bring if he gets himself right

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Any advantage we would have got out of the father / son rule is gone , now it’s just a matter of faith in his talent and taking him because we know him and what he can bring if he gets himself right

It's quite the opposite isn't it ...we get Welsh with a late pick, which to me seems a bargain for a father/son

The Club has already demonstrated ruthlessness with father/sons, with both Edwards boys and Ben Jarman .....no reliance on faith, just player assessment, like every other listed player

But like every drafted player ...talent without hard work = delisting

No better example than the highly talented bust, Troy Menzel

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Any genuine examples where clubs have hidden high end talent from other recruiters?

Or just another fantasy?

Port in 1997 quite a few.

Also a few rumours around Logan Evans limited SANFL time this year.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jeffcrowe]

It's quite the opposite isn't it ...we get Welsh with a late pick, which to me seems a bargain for a father/son

The Club has already demonstrated ruthlessness with father/sons, with both Edwards boys and Ben Jarman .....no reliance on faith, just player assessment, like every other listed player

But like every drafted player ...talent without hard work = delisting

No better example than the highly talented bust, Troy Menzel

As a father son we don’t get any advantage or benefit really as I doubt any other clubs will bid in main draft before our pick 64 ( which will come in )

So let’s say we have a talent order ( which to be honest we prob don’t after pick 4 ) and there are 5 guys we have rated higher above Welsh available when our 64 comes around , there might be one we rate in top 15 or 20 for example

We have locked ourselves in to what we may consider an inferior prospect due to lack of list positions

It’s a weird scenario all round

 

[Mutineer]

I'm sure the Club has analysed all his activities this year ....remember, in U18's the rules restrict Welsh to play inside 50

No need to focus on 2kn time trials at the ND....particularly if you already know where your 2025 home is going to be

Maybe that's not the right approach, but we're talking about 17 yo's here .....JHF was also pretty immature, refusing ice baths
I'm sure dad will be in his ear as well

What rule restricts Welsh to playing inside 50?
The anti density rule only applies to stoppages was my understanding, if not that rule is certainly not adhered to?
He could play full back if the coach desired.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

As a father son we don’t get any advantage or benefit really as I doubt any other clubs will bid in main draft before our pick 64 ( which will come in )

So let’s say we have a talent order ( which to be honest we prob don’t after pick 4 ) and there are 5 guys we have rated higher above Welsh available when our 64 comes around , there might be one we rate in top 15 or 20 for example

We have locked ourselves in to what we may consider an inferior prospect due to lack of list positions

It’s a weird scenario all round

No we haven't ....there were always a few scenarios available to us

So you think Welsh is an inferior prospect ? .....because that's certainly not my take

 

[WaynesWorld19]

What rule restricts Welsh to playing inside 50?
The anti density rule only applies to stoppages was my understanding, if not that rule is certainly not adhered to?
He could play full back if the coach desired.

Given the number of stoppages, which would include throw-ins .....it's a pretty good anchor to keep your KPF's in the FWD 50 at least

 

[Mutineer]

No we haven't ....there were always a few scenarios available to us

So you think Welsh is an inferior prospect ? .....because that's certainly not my take

I don't think anyone has suggested Welsh doesn't have plenty of raw talent and the tools to succeed at AFL, I certainly haven't but I do have some concerns with his application because he most certainly has added "condition" since the SANFL season finished?

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I don't think anyone has suggested Welsh doesn't have plenty of raw talent and the tools to succeed at AFL, I certainly haven't but I do have some concerns with his application because he most certainly has added "condition" since the SANFL season finished?

Why don't we just say he got fat !

 

[Jeffcrowe]

No we haven't ....there were always a few scenarios available to us

So you think Welsh is an inferior prospect ? .....because that's certainly not my take

He might well be an inferior prospect to who’s available on our talent order if someone slides

There’s no real scenarios available to us other than taking Welsh with that pick no matter what , we’ve committed to it

 

[WaynesWorld19]

He might well be an inferior prospect to who’s available on our talent order if someone slides

There’s no real scenarios available to us other than taking Welsh with that pick no matter what , we’ve committed to it

Yes we're committed now to Welsh ....but saying there may have been better options in the 60's, I think is a bit of fanciful stuff

If we didn't take Welsh, we could have traded next year's F1 with GWS for example, with their #15 or #16 ....which is all probability gets us Dodson

So all these scenarios would have been workshopped B4 we committed to Welsh .....I just think people's attitude will change, and it's another example of how the media shapes people's opinions

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Yes we're committed now to Welsh ....but saying there may have been better options in the 60's, I think is a bit of fanciful stuff

If we didn't take Welsh, we could have traded next year's F1 with GWS for example, with their #15 or #16 ....which is all probability gets us Dodson

So all these scenarios would have been workshopped B4 we committed to Welsh .....I just think people's attitude will change, and it's another example of how the media shapes people's opinions

If we did a talent order for the draft of 30 or 40 there could well be people we rate in top 20 available at that pick which will probably come into low 50s after academy selections

The point is we can’t do anything about it if we’ve committed to Welsh as we don’t have list spots

Imagine Dodson getting through to late 30s we’d look silly

 

[WaynesWorld19]

If we did a talent order for the draft of 30 or 40 there could well be people we rate in top 20 available at that pick which will probably come into low 50s after academy selections

The point is we can’t do anything about it if we’ve committed to Welsh as we don’t have list spots

Imagine Dodson getting through to late 30s we’d look silly

IMO GWS's picks are gettable ....so we've made a choice there

I must admit, my preference would have been to open another list spot, and trade next year's F1 into this year for Dodson, and also claim Welsh

 

[Jeffcrowe]

IMO GWS's picks are gettable ....so we've made a choice there

I must admit, my preference would have been to open another list spot, and trade next year's F1 into this year for Dodson, and also claim Welsh

I would have loved a crack at Dodson too somehow

 

[Mutineer]

If we did a talent order for the draft of 30 or 40 there could well be people we rate in top 20 available at that pick which will probably come into low 50s after academy selections

The point is we can’t do anything about it if we’ve committed to Welsh as we don’t have list spots

Imagine Dodson getting through to late 30s we’d look silly

As soon as it was known we were going to use our pick 25 on ANB long before the trade period actually opened it was pretty clear Dodson wasn't high on list management's perceived immediate needs IMO. That was the pick we may have been able to upgrade if required to get in the Dodson discussion.

 

[Mutineer]

Ollie Hannaford is the player I would like for us to have had a crack at around that pick.