Resource 2024 AFL Draft discussion thread (Wed Nov 20 to Fri Nov 22)

[1970crow]

I do like Lalor as well, but for mine the best player in this draft will be Langford for the reasons outlined below:

The only knock on Langford is his lack of pace in testing. Langford compensates for this with elite footy IQ , decision making, and game awareness, physically being able to stand up in the tackle and dispose of the ball to advantage, an elite left foot kick that can spear passes up to 60 metres, an elite mark overhead, and borderline elite endurance. Langford can also swing forward and be a major goal kicking weapon. Langford has been elite at every level he has played at this year, and was the joint winner of the Larke Medal. Additionally, Langford has been exceptionally durable this year, which can't be said for Lalor, Draper or FOS who have all had significant injury concerns at various stages throughout the year.

With Darren Burgess working on Langford's fitness, Langford would pick up a yard of pace over his first 2-3 off seasons, increase his endurance, strength, and running power, and become an absolute weapon through the middle and up forward.

Look at Brownlow Medal winners over the past 40 years, to my mind less than 5 of them had what you would call elite pace, and over the course of a 200+ game career, typically pace is the first attribute to go. Elite footy IQ, decision making, game awareness, endurance, strength in the contest, durability, disposal, marking, leadership, and, goal kicking ability are far more accurate predictors of long-term success in the AFL. Langford has all of these attributes.

Everyone is open to their own opinions, but focusing on Langford's 'lack of pace' is a massive flaw in the overall analysis of Langford's traits and abilities which for the most part are elite at AFL level. Lack of speed can be compensated for at AFL level, lack of footy IQ, poor decision making, poor disposal, lack of game awareness, poor marking, poor goal kicking are significantly harder to atone for, compensate for, or fix in a substantive way.

Brownlow results are terrible metric to include when judging game impact.

 

[LoBu]

You’ve missed two points here; one is it’s the same recruiting team, second, I’m saying early drafting, top 25 picks. The ones we should be building a successful team around. There’s 4 of those in your good column and a lot outside. Kinda proves the point.

You’ve also included players we didn’t draft, which is odd.

Which one's didn't we draft? I kept those we didn't draft out.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

TT was a no brainer, best junior in the state for years. Doubt many or any would take Rachele at 5 given the chance again. You know we didn’t draft Rankine yeah? Jury well and truly out on Curtin.

I would , in fact I think it’s weird if you think if you think he’s not a good pick

 

[LoBu]

Ok, taking out a couple of pre-season supplementary players, although i think it's still like drafting given they come from the same non-playing pool.

 

[George Kramer]

The issue is you aren't defining the era's correctly. My analysis shows a significant improvement in the Nicks era compared to the Pyke era.

The reality is we have a 41% success rate for the Nicks era compared to 21% Pyke era - which is looking even worse with the recent delistings.

View attachment 2167407

Is that coincidence or luck? Are you suggesting Nicks tells Ogilvie which players to draft?

 

[Crow till I die]

We needed a mid.

It's disappointing Rachele isn't there yet as a mid, maybe this year. Can't put that on the recruiting team.

I don't think we may end up needing him to be. He can remain that dangerous goal kicking small forward who can pinch hit in the middle. With Dawson, Rankine, Peatling, Pick 4 mid, Soligo and Edwards coming though and Curtin no doubt going to see more time there, going forward we may be covered. I also like the dynamic of keays...extreme pressure and gut running, ANB high pressure and quality user and Rachele with real x factor as our 3 main forward half smalls under fogarty, thilthorpe and tex moving to Curtin and then later hopefully Welsh

 

[1970crow]

Piss off with the apologists garbage.

If you're going to bitch about things, it's up to you to make a convincing case.

So far, you've done nothing to support the idea that the Crow's first round failures are vastly more than industry average.

No one has suggested we're great. People are only saying we do about as shit as most teams do, because the draft had a reasonably high failure rate.

I can't be arsed comparing, but after our banned years we used our first round picks on the below. Whilst you're not going to hit every pick, you need a fair bit more than what we got. The below needs to provide at least a handful of our best dozen in a contending group. Forget about other clubs, just compare it to our last 4 years, chalk and cheese. But we could just be unlucky in that what should be the foundations of our rebuilt list happened to be during a bad drafting period where our picks were located.

We've definitely improved markedly recently, but the below has a severe hamstringing effect on this list's ceiling.

2014 - Lever 14 - gone
2015 - Milera 11 - B grade injury cruelled half back
2015 - Doedee 17 - gone - now Edwards or Ryan
2016 - Gooch 15 - delisted
2017 - Fog 12 - potential A grader, not yet though
2017 - Gibbs 10 & 16 - sacked but retained on list for 12 months to clear contract
2018 - Jones 6 - fringe role player, maybe B grade with improvement
2018 - McHenry 16 - delisted
2019 - McAsey 6 - delisted

 

[Trigger13]

Good luck to anyone who can predict the best player in this Draft

Langford is my prediction.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Langford is my prediction.

 

[Captain Furious]

Ok, taking out a couple of pre-season supplementary players, although i think it's still like drafting given they come from the same non-playing pool.

View attachment 2167414

You also have Hately and Keays. Yes they were in the ps and rookie draft but like Keane, not under Hamish’s purview. That’s the list management team. Also Max’s selection had nothing to do with Hamish, f/s who fell into our lap and ended up in the 1st round due to Sydney.

For those struggling to keep up at home, I’m referring directly to the early drafting of Hamish. Seems like a ripping bloke, enjoy listening to his interviews but they also give away a bloke that fell into his job and is out of his depth. Loved the hardworking, competitive player so much he spent all our early picks on those players until someone pointed out we don’t have players who can hit targets and win games. Half our starting team next year won’t have been drafted by our recruiter of the past decade. You can’t miss that many times and still have a job.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

So hard to predict who will be best player but I’ll go

Best player - Lalor

Surest thing to be an A grader - Smith

Better than what people in here think ie underrated smoky - Langford ( could end up close to the best player )

Best under the radar talent in draft if it comes together - Kayle Gerreyn

 

[1970crow]

The issue is you aren't defining the era's correctly. My analysis shows a significant improvement in the Nicks era compared to the Pyke era.

The reality is we have a 41% success rate for the Nicks era compared to 21% Pyke era - which is looking even worse with the recent delistings.

View attachment 2167407

Talent ID isn't delineated based upon coaching eras. Coaches sit on list management, so they'd have a voice in decisions like whether to take 5 to the draft or use it on Rankine. But once the decision to take a pick to draft, the player is selected based upon the Talent ID group's order. List Management would likely get involved again if a trading down or up scenario reared its head. But separating drafting by senior coach tenures is nonsense.

 

[Floating Doughnut]

I don't think we may end up needing him to be. He can remain that dangerous goal kicking small forward who can pinch hit in the middle. With Dawson, Rankine, Peatling, Pick 4 mid, Soligo and Edwards coming though and Curtin no doubt going to see more time there, going forward we may be covered. I also like the dynamic of keays...extreme pressure and gut running, ANB high pressure and quality user and Rachele with real x factor as our 3 main forward half smalls under fogarty, thilthorpe and tex moving to Curtin and then later hopefully Welsh

Just been going through the end of years CBA’s again trying to predict where we are going.
I see Rach as more of a game winning forward .
Imo, Izak to pick up 100 CBA’s from Laird with the other 212 going to Peatling.
Still see our mids being built around a fit M Crouch and need to find 50 for him probably from Berry
and some for Curtin on and off a wing for me, pick 4 , Edwards and Taylor.
Berry was the best impact player in the league as Sub and reckon that’s his spot.

 

[Cromulant]

I can't be arsed comparing, but after our banned years we used our first round picks on the below. Whilst you're not going to hit every pick, you need a fair bit more than what we got. The below needs to provide at least a handful of our best dozen in a contending group. Forget about other clubs, just compare it to our last 4 years, chalk and cheese. But we could just be unlucky in that what should be the foundations of our rebuilt list happened to be during a bad drafting period where our picks were located.

We've definitely improved markedly recently, but the below has a severe hamstringing effect on this list's ceiling.

2014 - Lever 14 - gone
2015 - Milera 11 - B grade injury cruelled half back
2015 - Doedee 17 - gone - now Edwards or Ryan
2016 - Gooch 15 - delisted
2017 - Fog 12 - potential A grader, not yet though
2017 - Gibbs 10 & 16 - sacked but retained on list for 12 months to clear contract
2018 - Jones 6 - fringe role player, maybe B grade with improvement
2018 - McHenry 16 - delisted
2019 - McAsey 6 - delisted

Lever and Doedee weren't really examples of bad drafting, in fact Lever was a great pick.... we just dudded him. The fact we turned him essentially into Gibbs made it worse

 

[Peter Doherty]

Maybe you can succeed where everyone else has tapped out and tell me is the wing midfield, forward or defence? Or are you just trolling?

Matey, it's been done to death. People are over it.

 

[glengowan]

Lalor looks a class above. Otherwise the home grown Draper. If both of those taken within the first 3 picks, so be it, Smith then O'Sullivan. No need to rise to pick 2 given our poor track record of choosing poorly at the top end. Whichever player lands, he will be an absolute need and should be given every chance to find his way in our midfield next year.

 

[Crow till I die]

That doesn't stop anyone from having a go at picking who they think will be the best....put it out there for future reference.

Left field, but if he transitions into a midfielder, travaglia might be right up there with the best in this draft

 

[CharlieCrow]

Anyway, back to relevant topics.

I think the Richmond and NM trade actually still happens. I think it will be 2 for 6 and 18.

If this happens, how do you think will this shape the first few picks, especially our choice?

 

[Mostyn]

If this happens, how do you think will this shape the first few picks, especially our choice?

I think the first two would be Lalor and Jagga - the question is then whether Carlton take Draper.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

When they do re drafts in years to come of this draft it wouldn’t surprise me if this kid is in the top 5



You also wonder if there would be much more fanfare if he was regularly having 20 possession games in Coates league instead of 30 possession games in WAFL U18s

And if he comes off we had him and TT playing forward and ruck and swapping we wouldn’t really need a regular ruck

Shame we don’t have flexibility to draft him or Dodson

 

[ABAB]

I can't be arsed comparing, but after our banned years we used our first round picks on the below. Whilst you're not going to hit every pick, you need a fair bit more than what we got. The below needs to provide at least a handful of our best dozen in a contending group. Forget about other clubs, just compare it to our last 4 years, chalk and cheese. But we could just be unlucky in that what should be the foundations of our rebuilt list happened to be during a bad drafting period where our picks were located.

We've definitely improved markedly recently, but the below has a severe hamstringing effect on this list's ceiling.

2014 - Lever 14 - gone
2015 - Milera 11 - B grade injury cruelled half back
2015 - Doedee 17 - gone - now Edwards or Ryan
2016 - Gooch 15 - delisted
2017 - Fog 12 - potential A grader, not yet though
2017 - Gibbs 10 & 16 - sacked but retained on list for 12 months to clear contract
2018 - Jones 6 - fringe role player, maybe B grade with improvement
2018 - McHenry 16 - delisted
2019 - McAsey 6 - delisted

Gone doesn't mean they were bad draft. Lever was tracking as an A grader when he left us, Milera had potential before his 2 consecutive years wiped out PCL and foot injury and now another PCL and the same with Doedee before multiple ACL and Jones was pick 9 not 6.

 

[Clayton Lamb]

The issue is you aren't defining the era's correctly. My analysis shows a significant improvement in the Nicks era compared to the Pyke era.

The reality is we have a 41% success rate for the Nicks era compared to 21% Pyke era - which is looking even worse with the recent delistings.

View attachment 2167407

Got to factor in that during the Nicks era we have had much higher picks than during the Pyke era. 2019 Draft was also the start of the Nicks era, hence the three 'bads' you listed as the Pyke era (McAsey, Connor and Gollant) need to be moved into the Nicks era.

 

[Captain Furious]

Matey, it's been done to death. People are over it.

You need to follow along champ, you don’t even know what you’re commenting on.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Left field, but if he transitions into a midfielder, travaglia might be right up there with the best in this draft

He will be right up there ! And one of the surest things to make it

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I think the first two would be Lalor and Jagga - the question is then whether Carlton take Draper.

No wonder we are trying to get to 2 if possible

Mainly to prevent Richmond taking another mid there