Resource 2024 AFL Draft discussion thread (Wed Nov 20 to Fri Nov 22)

[Jeffcrowe]

Your call... but you are in the minority.

Majority of experts don't have him in the top 4 players.

Neither do I & believe our midfield balance would be better with Draper or Smith

Some recruiters don’t have Draper top 10 and he looks likely to get to saints at pick 8 if we don’t call his name

Langford won’t last that long

So I get your mid balance call but it would be interesting to see how many head recruiters have Langford over Draper

I reckon this board is overrating Draper significantly and underating Langford , they are very even as midfielders with different traits

Hope Draper doesn’t become a whipping boy for us but can see it happening

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I will say with the Bont/Cripps comparisons - Bont’s not fast, but he’s incredibly agile, while Cripps just has absolute brute strength and Goliath size. I don’t see Langford really having either of those as a plus at AFL level

But I know we’ll never see eye to eye on him don’t get me wrong, I think he can be a good player, just not sure he has the potential of the ‘elite’ mid that we lack

I will say if he lacks skill like you say he does then the last position he will play is the wing

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Langford does look a lot slower than Bont or Crips though. He has developed a real habit of moving sideways and sweeping behind to counter this, much as Matt Crouch did really. Those other 2 both still broke forward from stoppage.

You are right he’s a gun, but I think wing or halfback will be his spot at AFL level. That’s no bad think btw, he can be just as damaging there, it’s just less of a need for our current team imo. Similarly Lalor, who we hardly mention because he won’t be available, but he will do a lot of his damage forward of the ball at AFL level, and that’s not as needed for us as for Richmond or North.

Don’t reckon Cripps and Bont would have had near as many running bounces in their 18th year taking the game on and forward with penetration

There’s burst speed then there’s transition running

Langford can be an elite transition runner

 

[spenze]

perhaps - he has always responded previously to my messages (10+ in recent years) with only one exception

Was that the 30% guaranteed ROI one?

 

[Danger in Texas]

I will say if he lacks skill like you say he does then the last position he will play is the wing

He’ll be more often than not under less pressure on a wing than in the middle, so should theoretically be a more accurate kick than he is when playing in the trenches

 

[rocket18]

I will let you send that one old mate...not sure he would appreciate being reminded of it esp with Smiths form falling in a heap at the end of the year.

Am I the only one that saw Smith interviewed quickly by Ch 7 or 9 as he was walking out from exit meetings and the normal easy going and jovial Smith seemed different - a little bitter and resolute that he will be playing next year either in the AFL or SANFL team

If I had to predict, I reckon Reidy said we want to delist you at the meeting and pay out 50-66% of your base contract and Smith was surprised, upset and said no fn way

C'mon, his form at the start of the year was abysmal, it didn't "fall in a heap at the end of the year" - it was already in the heap to start with.

Let's not re-write history.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Some recruiters don’t have Draper top 10 and he looks likely to get to saints at pick 8 if we don’t call his name

Langford won’t last that long

So I get your mid balance call but it would be interesting to see how many head recruiters have Langford over Draper

I reckon this board is overrating Draper significantly and undertaking Langford , they are very even as midfielders with different traits

Hope Draper doesn’t become a whipping boy for us but can see it happening

Re: Draper - I think the concerns of some are that he could be Paddy Dow

Main differences between the two (at the same age) I think are that Sid has already shown he can win the ball against men, and his two-way work rate is a lot better

 

[1990crow]

Re: Draper - I think the concerns of some are that he could be Paddy Dow

Main differences between the two (at the same age) I think are that Sid has already shown he can win the ball against men, and his two-way work rate is a lot better

He looks tougher than Dow to the eye.

Went and watched Dows u18 highlights. Love to know what Carlton saw. Looked slow, poorly skilled and panicky in the contest.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Some recruiters don’t have Draper top 10 and he looks likely to get to saints at pick 8 if we don’t call his name

Langford won’t last that long

So I get your mid balance call but it would be interesting to see how many head recruiters have Langford over Draper

I reckon this board is overrating Draper significantly and undertaking Langford , they are very even as midfielders with different traits

Hope Draper doesn’t become a whipping boy for us but can see it happening

Doubt Draper falls outside the top 4, but Langford does, most likely taken by Dees. Will

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Re: Draper - I think the concerns of some are that he could be Paddy Dow

Main differences between the two (at the same age) I think are that Sid has already shown he can win the ball against men, and his two-way work rate is a lot better

Have no doubt Sid will make it as a capable AFL player in some form , not going to bank him as an elite player or A grader like I would smith just yet

He will be a great team mate etc and help us though


And yes >>> Paddy Dow

 

[ams4crows]

What’s the bet Hamish prefers Langford but the club would rather take homegrown Draper to avoid the backlash?

I just don’t understand how Langford isn’t being considered for pick 1. Cmon Hamish, pull a surprise. The melts on FB will be glorious too.

Every thing I've heard is that Hamish loves Langford as a player but yeah there's a whole recruiting team and list needs that need to be factored in.

 

[Mutineer]

Langford does look a lot slower than Bont or Crips though. He has developed a real habit of moving sideways and sweeping behind to counter this, much as Matt Crouch did really. Those other 2 both still broke forward from stoppage.

You are right he’s a gun, but I think wing or halfback will be his spot at AFL level. That’s no bad think btw, he can be just as damaging there, it’s just less of a need for our current team imo. Similarly Lalor, who we hardly mention because he won’t be available, but he will do a lot of his damage forward of the ball at AFL level, and that’s not as needed for us as for Richmond or North.

You obviously haven't been watching Sam Lalor since the U16's....I have., quite a bit of it live.

He's an explosive midfielder first and foremost, the forward play is just a recent thing because of no preseason thus lacking the fitness base to play a lot of midfield this season.

 

[George Kramer]

Some recruiters don’t have Draper top 10 and he looks likely to get to saints at pick 8 if we don’t call his name

Langford won’t last that long

So I get your mid balance call but it would be interesting to see how many head recruiters have Langford over Draper

I reckon this board is overrating Draper significantly and undertaking Langford , they are very even as midfielders with different traits

Hope Draper doesn’t become a whipping boy for us but can see it happening

Not even in the top 10? Crikey. Let’s hope those recruiters are wrong!

I just can’t seem them going Langford over Draper unless they thought Langord was clearly better

 

[George Kramer]

You obviously haven't been watching Sam Lalor since the U16's....I have., quite a bit of it live.

He's an explosive midfielder first and foremost, the forward play is just a recent thing because of no preseason thus lacking the fitness base to play a lot of midfield this season.

spenze is this your info as well?

 

[George Kramer]

40 players we really like and we have one pick

 

[1990crow]

40 players we really like and we have one pick

See his words re 2 picks and welsh

 

[LoBu]

I wonder if some of the problem is who to trade those 3 x 3rds with? Our picks are us, Melbourne and GWS - all a decent chance to finish top 8, in which case those picks hold very little value for academy or f/s points with the new index. Even if all 3 clubs finished in the same places, those combined points are only worth between #27 & #28. if those clubs finished say 6th, 7th and 8th next year, those 3 picks have a combined value of less than #36. Not really an enticing trade bounty.

Given that's probably off the table, maybe it's only in play if Richmond don't pick Lalor and then we're prepared to swap our 1st for North's 2nd. I still wouldn't given I think Smith, Draper or Langford have just as much chance of being a generational talent.

Clubs looking for a top 5 midfield slider, like Melbourne or St Kilda (mostly) have incentive to trade with us to see north pick tauru instead of FOS

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

“We will probably use two picks, (and) we’ve got enough points out the back to hopefully cover and bring Tyler (Welsh) in as well,” Ogilvie said.

...

Pick 60 might be live? Or trade back in?

maybe Reid forgot to tell Hamish how many list spots we have

 

[Floating Doughnut]

C'mon, his form at the start of the year was abysmal, it didn't "fall in a heap at the end of the year" - it was already in the heap to start with.

Let's not re-write history.

Absolutely

Should have had the first four or five games as a respected senior player to get
going but when he didn’t hit the SANFL until form came back . Maybe given one or two more as a last go but still would have left him well short and left us with a list spot. I’m still in denial, thinking that there must be some craziness to play out .

 

[DaKids]

Some recruiters don’t have Draper top 10 and he looks likely to get to saints at pick 8 if we don’t call his name

Langford won’t last that long

So I get your mid balance call but it would be interesting to see how many head recruiters have Langford over Draper

I reckon this board is overrating Draper significantly and undertaking Langford , they are very even as midfielders with different traits

Hope Draper doesn’t become a whipping boy for us but can see it happening

Course he will be a whipping boy. The minute he starts missing targets

Still can’t wrap this old head around the way people will forgive everything if you can run fast.

Draper is handball happy which results from losing a bit of composure and affects decision making.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Re: Draper - I think the concerns of some are that he could be Paddy Dow

Main differences between the two (at the same age) I think are that Sid has already shown he can win the ball against men, and his two-way work rate is a lot better

I would also say that Dow's kicking was poor, where as Draper's is just mediocre

 

[1990crow]

I would also say that Dow's kicking was poor, where as Draper's is just mediocre

Dangerfields field kicking got better over time too.

 

[dogs105]

“We will probably use two picks, (and) we’ve got enough points out the back to hopefully cover and bring Tyler (Welsh) in as well,” Ogilvie said.

...

Pick 60 might be live? Or trade back in?

Could be 2, and hoping the 2nd is Welsh, rather than someone else with pick 50 odd. A bit ambiguous.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Could be 2, and hoping the end is Welsh, rather than someone else with pick 50 odd. A bit ambiguous.

This line clears it up

'Although the Club’s draft hand includes three picks, Ogilvie expects just two to be used, with one likely to be for father-son product Tyler Welsh.'

 

[Big Dub]

Sorry to revisit the "how good/ bad is Hamish's early drafting", but I've looked it up (and I'm bored), so here it is.

Tier 1 - All Australian at least once
Tier 2 - AA40, Club B&F, Norm Smith, 200 games
Tier 3 - 100 games
Tier 4 - 50 games
Fail - less than 50 games (this is fail full stop, not just terrible return for a good pick)

If a player is in his first 5 years and still on a list, I have bumped him up one rating (but not if already Tier 2).

Thilthorpe is the only top 5 pick Hamish has selected for us. It's too early to tell how he will turn out, but it looks good to my eye. This is what he is up against for pick 2's since 2007:


So, TT pretty much has to make the AA squad to break even, or play 200 games. Too early to tell.


Pick 6 to 10 is where we expect to look the worst, with the clear McAsey fail. We are higher than average for fails, but above average for legends (Danger). We are a bit short of Tier 2 players in this range, with Phil Davis

1

Phil Davis

Age

34

Ht

197cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.0

3star

K

7.6

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

1.7

4star

MG

55.5

1star

D

8.5

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

4.1

3star

M

3.4

3star

T

1.3

2star

MG

55.5

1star

D

14.0

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

5.8

5star

T

1.4

4star

' 192 games just short of having our noses in front. Tier 3 might be a tough call there:




We look very good in the 11 to 15 range, with Talia, Smith and Lever AAs and only Gallucci letting the side down. Milera just needs 1 more game to exit Tier 4:




Pick 16 is the only pick in the 16 to 20 range that wasn't a father-son, and McHenry has been underwhelming, but not an outright fail. Pick 16 hasn't produced much overall, but we are comfortably below average anyway:



So, I'd say that Hamish being a below average recruiter might be slightly overblown. If anything, he's slightly above average with a couple of big wins and a big loss.