Preview 2024 AFL Draft General Discussion

[Lingsface]

a players draft position is irrelevant. Paddy Dow isn't even afl standard and he was pick 3. There's countless other examples. Jack Watts, Cale Morton, Jimmy Toumpas, all top 5 picks. They lose value after about 3 seasons of producing nothing. No idea why Port paid that much for Lukosius.

Yes but it does show that it’s not always a golden ticket, so the hysteria around trading number 3 pick is interesting to see.

I think Lukosis has shown he is capable of becoming a very good player. I am backing him in.

 

[Crow till I die]

I suspect Richmond and North will trade for pick 2 (maybe 6 & 10 or 11)

Then the order right at the top to me looks set
1. Smith - Richmond
2. Lalor - Richmond
3. FOS - Carlton
4. Draper - Adelaide

Carlton trading up to get pick 3 reeks of it being for a crack at FOS, Richmond have been right into Smith for a long time and he and Lalor are the new Dusty and Cotchin pairing. Leaves Draper at 4 and that will suit the crows.

 

[db26]

I suspect Richmond and North will trade for pick 2 (maybe 6 & 10 or 11)

Then the order right at the top to me looks set
1. Smith - Richmond
2. Lalor - Richmond
3. FOS - Carlton
4. Draper - Adelaide

Carlton trading up to get pick 3 reeks of it being for a crack at FOS, Richmond have been right into Smith for a long time and he and Lalor are the new Dusty and Cotchin pairing. Leaves Draper at 4 and that will suit the crows.

Blues set the precedent yesterday 12 and 14 for 3. 6 and 10 overs

 

[Crow till I die]

Blues set the precedent yesterday 12 and 14 for 3. 6 and 10 overs

West Coast got mugged...thats a case study into what not to do

 

[Ura]

Surely Tigers trade up the order or into next year. I would assume after Kako Bombers may offer a F12 to get back in the draft. Also assume a good deal for North and Tigers trading around pick 2 and pick 6 with an extra. Will be an interesting night for the Tigers either way

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Jesum crickets you’d want to have the best draft assessment team in the business if you were Richmond this year..

The next 10 years of team performance basically resting on the shoulders of this draft year at the moment!

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Blues set the precedent yesterday 12 and 14 for 3. 6 and 10 overs

And we might get pick 48 for Bailey Smith.

FML

 

[Ura]

Jesum crickets you’d want to have the best draft assessment team in the business if you were Richmond this year..

The next 10 years of team performance basically resting on the shoulders of this draft year at the moment!

Feels like it will be the standard. Will have a terrible start and did they cut to deep or start ok and genius.

 

[richoatthedisco]

I suspect Richmond and North will trade for pick 2 (maybe 6 & 10 or 11)

Then the order right at the top to me looks set
1. Smith - Richmond
2. Lalor - Richmond
3. FOS - Carlton
4. Draper - Adelaide

Carlton trading up to get pick 3 reeks of it being for a crack at FOS, Richmond have been right into Smith for a long time and he and Lalor are the new Dusty and Cotchin pairing. Leaves Draper at 4 and that will suit the crows.

We're not right into Smith. It's Lalor and FOS.

Reckon Carlton will take Draper, maybe Langford. Who are you going if your choice is Langford/Smith/Smillie?

 

[Giant Strides]

We're not right into Smith. It's Lalor and FOS.

Reckon Carlton will take Draper, maybe Langford. Who are you going if your choice is Langford/Smith/Smillie?

Bailey Smith

 

[Crow till I die]

We're not right into Smith. It's Lalor and FOS.

Reckon Carlton will take Draper, maybe Langford. Who are you going if your choice is Langford/Smith/Smillie?

We can't lose at 4 as Smith will be there in that scenario and thats who I would expect we take..no point getting cute going for a reach at a blue chip pick like that.

 

[juss]

Jesum crickets you’d want to have the best draft assessment team in the business if you were Richmond this year..

The next 10 years of team performance basically resting on the shoulders of this draft year at the moment!

Not really, because next year we will probably have pick 1 again, and likely we've traded some picks into next year so probably another first rounder. In 2026 we probably have another top 3 pick as well to add.

We'll have quality kids coming in the next 2-3 years as we're likely bottom 2 or so for those years, may as well rack them up before Tassie come in.

 

[marcmurphy3]

How would the top propects for this draft compare to the recent 2 drafts. If I got the top 5 prospects and compared them to who went top 5 in those drafts would it look something like this?

So no standout but a really strong top group.

Note: I put Cadman low even though he went number 1. Was never rated there but picked on need.

1. H.Reid

2. W.Ashcroft

3. J.Walter
4. L.Ashcroft
5. C.McKercher
6. H. Scheezel
7. J.Smith
8. F. O'Sullivan
9. S.Draper
10. G.Wardlaw

11. Langford
12. Duursma
13. Watson
14. E.Tsatas
15. A.Cadman

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

I suspect Richmond and North will trade for pick 2 (maybe 6 & 10 or 11)

Then the order right at the top to me looks set
1. Smith - Richmond
2. Lalor - Richmond
3. FOS - Carlton
4. Draper - Adelaide

Carlton trading up to get pick 3 reeks of it being for a crack at FOS, Richmond have been right into Smith for a long time and he and Lalor are the new Dusty and Cotchin pairing. Leaves Draper at 4 and that will suit the crows.

Sounds too straight forward.

1. Smith
2. FOS
3. Draper

A crow’s worst nightmare.

 

[Crow till I die]

Sounds too straight forward.

1. Smith
2. FOS
3. Draper

A crow’s worst nightmare.

Lalor at 4..we will bite your arm off for that!!!

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

Lalor at 4..we will bite your arm off for that!!!

I don’t get the obsession with Draper on the Carlton board. Disposal is iffy

 

[Ura]

How would the top propects for this draft compare to the recent 2 drafts. If I got the top 5 prospects and compared them to who went top 5 in those drafts would it look something like this?

So no standout but a really strong top group.

Note: I put Cadman low even though he went number 1. Was never rated there but picked on need.

1. H.Reid

2. W.Ashcroft

3. J.Walter
4. L.Ashcroft
5. C.McKercher
6. H. Scheezel
7. J.Smith
8. F. O'Sullivan
9. S.Draper
10. G.Wardlaw

11. Langford
12. Duursma
13. Watson
14. E.Tsatas
15. A.Cadman

Honestly not close. No one in this draft would be taken top 2 in any draft I can remember. There probably isn’t a number 2 pick I. The last 7 drafts who isn’t going 1 in this draft.

It’s a big reason why 2 most likely 1s currently are FOS who hasn’t put 1 best on group preformance those year and 10 week hammy Lalor.

 

[adammania9]

I suspect Richmond and North will trade for pick 2 (maybe 6 & 10 or 11)

Then the order right at the top to me looks set
1. Smith - Richmond
2. Lalor - Richmond
3. FOS - Carlton
4. Draper - Adelaide

Carlton trading up to get pick 3 reeks of it being for a crack at FOS, Richmond have been right into Smith for a long time and he and Lalor are the new Dusty and Cotchin pairing. Leaves Draper at 4 and that will suit the crows.

6&18 more likely for 2. You wouldn't do 6&10 if you're Richmond

 

[bungalow_bill]

How would the top propects for this draft compare to the recent 2 drafts. If I got the top 5 prospects and compared them to who went top 5 in those drafts would it look something like this?

So no standout but a really strong top group.

Note: I put Cadman low even though he went number 1. Was never rated there but picked on need.

1. H.Reid

2. W.Ashcroft

3. J.Walter
4. L.Ashcroft
5. C.McKercher
6. H. Scheezel
7. J.Smith
8. F. O'Sullivan
9. S.Draper
10. G.Wardlaw

11. Langford
12. Duursma
13. Watson
14. E.Tsatas
15. A.Cadman

Would agree with most of this except I'd bump Levi up to 3. Will is a once in a generation player and Levi is by some reports even better.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Would agree with most of this except I'd bump Levi up to 3. Will is a once in a generation player and Levi is by some reports even better.

Personally don't think Levi is as good as Will. Statistically maybe close or even slightly ahead, but Will is better at just about everything as a midfielder imo. That's not to say Levi is a slouch, he's a gun too... Just think Will was a bit stronger, a bit quicker, a bit cleaner etc.

 

[hawkinoz]

Hawks are likely to dangle the Blues F1 for a trade either by itself or in pairing with their pick 33.

Will need a F3 back and can give the Eagles F4 to satisfy AFL house. We held out as long as we could to avoid trading the F3 but swallowed the Barrass deal demands.

Which club may be interested in this and where are the Blues likely to finish on ladder next yr. Top4 / 8 or btw 8-14.

 

[feelyngood]

What are the best sites for statistics of the 2024 draft crop?

I'm aware of
Central.rookieme which has some individual profiles and stats
AFL site has individual game stats
dfs is another site but not much up there yet on this season.

Any others?
Would love a full table with all players and their stats.

 

[Ura]

What are the best sites for statistics of the 2024 draft crop?

I'm aware of
Central.rookieme which has some individual profiles and stats
AFL site has individual game stats
dfs is another site but not much up there yet on this season.

Any others?
Would love a full table with all players and their stats.

I use Coates league for those players. Can go game by game. Is important though that they can be a bit deceiving raw numbers

 

[Sphynx]

How would the top propects for this draft compare to the recent 2 drafts. If I got the top 5 prospects and compared them to who went top 5 in those drafts would it look something like this?

So no standout but a really strong top group.

Note: I put Cadman low even though he went number 1. Was never rated there but picked on need.

1. H.Reid

2. W.Ashcroft

3. J.Walter
4. L.Ashcroft
5. C.McKercher
6. H. Scheezel
7. J.Smith
8. F. O'Sullivan
9. S.Draper
10. G.Wardlaw

11. Langford
12. Duursma
13. Watson
14. E.Tsatas
15. A.Cadman

I don't know in what universe FOS would go ahead of Wardlaw based on their underage reputations. FOS is a smooth mover and had a great underage year, but inside of the underage setups, there is/was a vast difference to their reputations, particularly how their reps developed in their top age years.

Wardlaw wasn't performance related, it was only injury related. His stocks suffered around the mystique of soft tissue injuries and two Non Victorian teams holding the first 2 picks at one point. Wardlaw was viewed as the #1 player of that group for years of that age group. FOS is very much a mixture of both injury and performance issues, but mainly performance at this point given he played almost 75-80% of the season.


Wardlaw, Ashcroft (when he moved back to VIC) and Watson were guys mentioned as early as the u/14's level in Victoria. At CTL games years out they were mentioned as "wait until you see this kid from Caulfield" Or "wait until you see this kid from St Peters who's just moved from De La Salle to St Kevins", as well as their performances in interleague and national school carnivals pre the u16 nationals.

Im going to remove the KPP's for ease, maybe do them separately. As I think the mids are slightly overrated and the KPP's, underrated.

Tiers (Based soley on their junior careers and reputations):

1. H.Reid

2. W.Ashcroft
3. C. McKercher

4. L.Ashcroft
5. H.Sheezel

6. G.Wardlaw* (Would be far higher)

7. S.Lalor/F.O'Sullivan/J. Smith/Z.Duursma/N.Watson


I'd be tempted to put Duursma and Watson above this years crop also, the only tie breaker are the 2024 group are pure mids and that demands a premium on occassion. I think both Duursma and Watson were viewed as having higher ceilings comparatively, with possibly the exception of Lalor, who I think would be comparable.


2024 is a very even group, they all scope as consistent top quality AFL players, not sure they quite have the ceilings of most top midfield groups like the above and then the likes of JHF, Rowell, Anderson, Walsh etc.

But there's probably 10 players that are better than most in a typical 5-10 range of most drafts. As I said, I think this mid group is slightly overrated and the KPP group slightly underrated.


Where as with the KPP's, maybe extending it out a few years for a bigger pool vs the mids (factoring their reputations entering the draft):

1. JUH
2. Darcy
3. Thilthorpe
4. Tauru/Armstrong
5. Cadman/Curtin/Caddy/Read

Would be my assessment

 

[Mofra]

Jesum crickets you’d want to have the best draft assessment team in the business if you were Richmond this year..

The next 10 years of team performance basically resting on the shoulders of this draft year at the moment!

Trying to get ahead of the Tassie draft concessions. I can understand why but jeez 2025 is going to get ugly for them.