Analysis 2024 AFL Draft General Discussion

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

Lalor at 4..we will bite your arm off for that!!!

I don’t get the obsession with Draper on the Carlton board. Disposal is iffy

 

[Ura]

How would the top propects for this draft compare to the recent 2 drafts. If I got the top 5 prospects and compared them to who went top 5 in those drafts would it look something like this?

So no standout but a really strong top group.

Note: I put Cadman low even though he went number 1. Was never rated there but picked on need.

1. H.Reid

2. W.Ashcroft

3. J.Walter
4. L.Ashcroft
5. C.McKercher
6. H. Scheezel
7. J.Smith
8. F. O'Sullivan
9. S.Draper
10. G.Wardlaw

11. Langford
12. Duursma
13. Watson
14. E.Tsatas
15. A.Cadman

Honestly not close. No one in this draft would be taken top 2 in any draft I can remember. There probably isn’t a number 2 pick I. The last 7 drafts who isn’t going 1 in this draft.

It’s a big reason why 2 most likely 1s currently are FOS who hasn’t put 1 best on group preformance those year and 10 week hammy Lalor.

 

[adammania9]

I suspect Richmond and North will trade for pick 2 (maybe 6 & 10 or 11)

Then the order right at the top to me looks set
1. Smith - Richmond
2. Lalor - Richmond
3. FOS - Carlton
4. Draper - Adelaide

Carlton trading up to get pick 3 reeks of it being for a crack at FOS, Richmond have been right into Smith for a long time and he and Lalor are the new Dusty and Cotchin pairing. Leaves Draper at 4 and that will suit the crows.

6&18 more likely for 2. You wouldn't do 6&10 if you're Richmond

 

[bungalow_bill]

How would the top propects for this draft compare to the recent 2 drafts. If I got the top 5 prospects and compared them to who went top 5 in those drafts would it look something like this?

So no standout but a really strong top group.

Note: I put Cadman low even though he went number 1. Was never rated there but picked on need.

1. H.Reid

2. W.Ashcroft

3. J.Walter
4. L.Ashcroft
5. C.McKercher
6. H. Scheezel
7. J.Smith
8. F. O'Sullivan
9. S.Draper
10. G.Wardlaw

11. Langford
12. Duursma
13. Watson
14. E.Tsatas
15. A.Cadman

Would agree with most of this except I'd bump Levi up to 3. Will is a once in a generation player and Levi is by some reports even better.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Would agree with most of this except I'd bump Levi up to 3. Will is a once in a generation player and Levi is by some reports even better.

Personally don't think Levi is as good as Will. Statistically maybe close or even slightly ahead, but Will is better at just about everything as a midfielder imo. That's not to say Levi is a slouch, he's a gun too... Just think Will was a bit stronger, a bit quicker, a bit cleaner etc.

 

[hawkinoz]

Hawks are likely to dangle the Blues F1 for a trade either by itself or in pairing with their pick 33.

Will need a F3 back and can give the Eagles F4 to satisfy AFL house. We held out as long as we could to avoid trading the F3 but swallowed the Barrass deal demands.

Which club may be interested in this and where are the Blues likely to finish on ladder next yr. Top4 / 8 or btw 8-14.

 

[feelyngood]

What are the best sites for statistics of the 2024 draft crop?

I'm aware of
Central.rookieme which has some individual profiles and stats
AFL site has individual game stats
dfs is another site but not much up there yet on this season.

Any others?
Would love a full table with all players and their stats.

 

[Ura]

What are the best sites for statistics of the 2024 draft crop?

I'm aware of
Central.rookieme which has some individual profiles and stats
AFL site has individual game stats
dfs is another site but not much up there yet on this season.

Any others?
Would love a full table with all players and their stats.

I use Coates league for those players. Can go game by game. Is important though that they can be a bit deceiving raw numbers

 

[Sphynx]

How would the top propects for this draft compare to the recent 2 drafts. If I got the top 5 prospects and compared them to who went top 5 in those drafts would it look something like this?

So no standout but a really strong top group.

Note: I put Cadman low even though he went number 1. Was never rated there but picked on need.

1. H.Reid

2. W.Ashcroft

3. J.Walter
4. L.Ashcroft
5. C.McKercher
6. H. Scheezel
7. J.Smith
8. F. O'Sullivan
9. S.Draper
10. G.Wardlaw

11. Langford
12. Duursma
13. Watson
14. E.Tsatas
15. A.Cadman

I don't know in what universe FOS would go ahead of Wardlaw based on their underage reputations. FOS is a smooth mover and had a great underage year, but inside of the underage setups, there is/was a vast difference to their reputations, particularly how their reps developed in their top age years.

Wardlaw wasn't performance related, it was only injury related. His stocks suffered around the mystique of soft tissue injuries and two Non Victorian teams holding the first 2 picks at one point. Wardlaw was viewed as the #1 player of that group for years of that age group. FOS is very much a mixture of both injury and performance issues, but mainly performance at this point given he played almost 75-80% of the season.


Wardlaw, Ashcroft (when he moved back to VIC) and Watson were guys mentioned as early as the u/14's level in Victoria. At CTL games years out they were mentioned as "wait until you see this kid from Caulfield" Or "wait until you see this kid from St Peters who's just moved from De La Salle to St Kevins", as well as their performances in interleague and national school carnivals pre the u16 nationals.

Im going to remove the KPP's for ease, maybe do them separately. As I think the mids are slightly overrated and the KPP's, underrated.

Tiers (Based soley on their junior careers and reputations):

1. H.Reid

2. W.Ashcroft
3. C. McKercher

4. L.Ashcroft
5. H.Sheezel

6. G.Wardlaw* (Would be far higher)

7. S.Lalor/F.O'Sullivan/J. Smith/Z.Duursma/N.Watson


I'd be tempted to put Duursma and Watson above this years crop also, the only tie breaker are the 2024 group are pure mids and that demands a premium on occassion. I think both Duursma and Watson were viewed as having higher ceilings comparatively, with possibly the exception of Lalor, who I think would be comparable.


2024 is a very even group, they all scope as consistent top quality AFL players, not sure they quite have the ceilings of most top midfield groups like the above and then the likes of JHF, Rowell, Anderson, Walsh etc.

But there's probably 10 players that are better than most in a typical 5-10 range of most drafts. As I said, I think this mid group is slightly overrated and the KPP group slightly underrated.


Where as with the KPP's, maybe extending it out a few years for a bigger pool vs the mids (factoring their reputations entering the draft):

1. JUH
2. Darcy
3. Thilthorpe
4. Tauru/Armstrong
5. Cadman/Curtin/Caddy/Read

Would be my assessment

 

[Mofra]

Jesum crickets you’d want to have the best draft assessment team in the business if you were Richmond this year..

The next 10 years of team performance basically resting on the shoulders of this draft year at the moment!

Trying to get ahead of the Tassie draft concessions. I can understand why but jeez 2025 is going to get ugly for them.

 

[BluesRule]

Sounds too straight forward.

1. Smith
2. FOS
3. Draper

A crow’s worst nightmare.

Wonder if Adelaide would bid for #3 if that happens....????

 

[richoatthedisco]

Trying to get ahead of the Tassie draft concessions. I can understand why but jeez 2025 is going to get ugly for them.

It'll be kinda like 2010 all over again, when we were 'the worst team since Fitzroy' and lost our first nine games before a glorious win over Port in the slop in Adelaide. Didn't even end up with the spoon. As a fan I really enjoyed that year. But that team had Jack Riewoldt winning the Coleman (at 21, in the second-bottom team, what a champion), as well as young Cotchin, Martin, Edwards, Rance, Astbury and Grimes on the list if not all in the ones at that stage.

We don't have that superstar young group yet, but we do have a better senior core than back then - even with everyone we've lost. But we're odds-on for the spoon, I imagine.

We need this draft and the next to be where we collect our next similar group. We might have a couple already but we really need to nail the next 2-3 drafts. Great hand in an excellent draft to begin. Looking forward to 20 Nov.

 

[marcmurphy3]

I'm just not seeing the NM pick split happening in the end despite all the talk.

If Richmond offer 6+18 for 2 is that worth it for North Melbourne? Surely North would rather just ensure they get who they want (even if they are reaching for somebody), as opposed to hoping in exchange for an extra pick that'll be in the 20s after bids.

On the flipside I don't see how Richmond could offer 6+10/11. It's too much. As much as they would like the top 2 picks, they can get another gun mid prospect at 6 plus add a KPP at 10/11 which is surely smarter early in a rebuild. Reid/Smillie + Tauru/Armstrong/Trainor > Smith/FOS/Lalor.

Saints and Dees would want something substantial back from North to part with both top 10 picks. I'm not sure North would be keen on that. If they were willing to swap both top 10s for pick 2, I imagine they would have gone harder at WC pick 3.

 

[Bletch]

I'm just not seeing the NM pick split happening in the end despite all the talk.

If Richmond offer 6+18 for 2 is that worth it for North Melbourne? Surely North would rather just ensure they get who they want (even if they are reaching for somebody), as opposed to hoping in exchange for an extra pick that'll be in the 20s after bids.

On the flipside I don't see how Richmond could offer 6+10/11. It's too much. As much as they would like the top 2 picks, they can get another gun mid prospect at 6 plus add a KPP at 10/11 which is surely smarter early in a rebuild. Reid/Smillie + Tauru/Armstrong/Trainor > Smith/FOS/Lalor.

Saints and Dees would want something substantial back from North to part with both top 10 picks. I'm not sure North would be keen on that. If they were willing to swap both top 10s for pick 2, I imagine they would have gone harder at WC pick 3.

Agree. Only caveat... Norf may back themselves to finish ahead of Saints and/or Dees next year, and so might consider adding F1 to pick 2. But they'd really want to be confident it would work out that way.

 

[banzai]

Trying to get ahead of the Tassie draft concessions. I can understand why but jeez 2025 is going to get ugly for them.

It wont really be worse than this season even if we don't win a game. We won 2 games with an old list and half a checked out team. Atleast there will be young players to watch.

 

[The Nostradamus]

if we keep 2 i expect us to take lalor or FOS

top 4 not incl FS i think is locked in some order Lalor, FOS, Jagga, Draper

dees at 5 is hard to predict do they go Langford, Tauru or armstrong?

 

[marcmurphy3]

Agree. Only caveat... Norf may back themselves to finish ahead of Saints and/or Dees next year, and so might consider adding F1 to pick 2. But they'd really want to be confident it would work out that way.

Yeah, thought that to. They could also do 2+F1 for 6+10 from Richmond. Richmond's might be keen if they want to spread out their picks. But North sure would want to be confident. Super Risky and a big premium to pay to move their pick forward into this years draft from 2025.

 

[banzai]

Yeah, thought that to. They could also do 2+F1 for 6+10 from Richmond. Richmond's might be keen if they want to spread out their picks. But North sure would want to be confident. Super Risky and a big premium to pay to move their pick forward into this years draft from 2025.

They wont offer 2 + F1, we would take that without even thinking.

 

[Bletch]

They wont offer 2 + F1, we would take that without even thinking.

What's the feeling over your way banzai - trade for pick 2 or not? And if so, what gets it done?

 

[danster168]

if we keep 2 i expect us to take lalor or FOS

top 4 not incl FS i think is locked in some order Lalor, FOS, Jagga, Draper

dees at 5 is hard to predict do they go Langford, Tauru or armstrong?

I would expect the dees to go for Tauru. Jason Taylor generally likes the tough types and the only time that he's gone for soft ones (aka Jefferson, Weideman) has been because we've been so desperate for forwards so I expect Tauru, then Langford and I'd imagine we'd look at Armstrong at 9 but I'm not sold on Armstrong. So many of his goals are crumbing type goals and his kicking looks horrible just from his highlights. Seems to helicopter so many goals. But that's just me, I could be wrong. I've heard he's a great contested mark but not many of his highlights show his great contested marks. There's many more contested mark highlights in Tauru's.

 

[Tortured Tiger]

I would expect the dees to go for Tauru. Jason Taylor generally likes the tough types and the only time that he's gone for soft ones (aka Jefferson, Weideman) has been because we've been so desperate for forwards so I expect Tauru, then Langford and I'd imagine we'd look at Armstrong at 9 but I'm not sold on Armstrong. So many of his goals are crumbing type goals and his kicking looks horrible just from his highlights. Seems to helicopter so many goals. But that's just me, I could be wrong. I've heard he's a great contested mark but not many of his highlights show his great contested marks. There's many more contested mark highlights in Tauru's.

I assume Tauru is after the Kako bid of course

 

[Milanista28]

I'm just not seeing the NM pick split happening in the end despite all the talk.

If Richmond offer 6+18 for 2 is that worth it for North Melbourne? Surely North would rather just ensure they get who they want (even if they are reaching for somebody), as opposed to hoping in exchange for an extra pick that'll be in the 20s after bids.

On the flipside I don't see how Richmond could offer 6+10/11. It's too much. As much as they would like the top 2 picks, they can get another gun mid prospect at 6 plus add a KPP at 10/11 which is surely smarter early in a rebuild. Reid/Smillie + Tauru/Armstrong/Trainor > Smith/FOS/Lalor.

Saints and Dees would want something substantial back from North to part with both top 10 picks. I'm not sure North would be keen on that. If they were willing to swap both top 10s for pick 2, I imagine they would have gone harder at WC pick 3.

The draft numbers don't matter now, if North move from 2 to 6 it's because they believe the guy they want will be there at 6. They get 18 as a bonus.

10/11 or 18 doesn't really matter as they're making the move for a particular player. Sure they'd rather 11, getting the bloke you want at 6 and then having 18, it's still a good deal.

 

[marcmurphy3]

The draft numbers don't matter now, if North move from 2 to 6 it's because they believe the guy they want will be there at 6. They get 18 as a bonus.

10/11 or 18 doesn't really matter as they're making the move for a particular player. Sure they'd rather 11, getting the bloke you want at 6 and then having 18, it's still a good deal.

That's true but if they only get 18 they'd want to be 100% sure their man is there at 6. Not worth the risk if there is any doubt.

 

[Milanista28]

That's true but if they only get 18 they'd want to be 100% sure their man is there at 6. Not worth the risk if there is any doubt.

Yep, agreed.

 

[Crow till I die]

Could anyone see Richmond trading pick 6 & 10 (pick 7 & 13 here) for North’s pick 2 (3 here), assuming Rioli/Bolton get done. Richmond can take both Lalor and Jagga and North can take Tauru (who they seem keen on but pick 2 might be a little high) and best available. Who says no here?

1. Richmond - Sam Lalor
2. Brisbane (Bid) - Levi Ashcroft
3. Richmond - Jagga Smith
4. Carlton - Finn O’Sullivan
5. Adelaide - Sam Draper
6. Melbourne - Murphy Reid
7. North - Alix Tauru
8. Essendon (Bid) - Isaac Kako
9. St Kilda - Harvey Langford
10. St Kilda - Josh Smillie
11. Gold Coast (Bid) - Leo Lombard
12. Melbourne - Harry Armstrong
13. North - Tobie Travaglia/best fit

N Fing way are we drafting that dud from Essendon (still under contract) ...but if you were to say Sid Draper at pick 4...