Opinion 2024 AFL Draft - Nights 1 & 2, from 7pm AEST

[Bloods86]

Dattoli for Campbell for me, unless he shows a fair bit in the prseason. Whoever shows more in the pre season gets that spot.

If they are both actually played up forward, sure.

But comparing anyone forward to Campbell being thrown around the ground as a 2nd or 3rd stringer, isn't being serious. He deserves to be played in his draft position before being ousted (again), or we probably deserve a trade request.

Campbell, Cleary and Chad the 3 I want playing forward more instead of a KPF and Parker. The latter two, especially Chad will still get some centre bounces, hopefully in 2nd halves.

 

[Bandicoot]

Quick search seems to indicate there hasn't been much discussion on the NM 2025 1st rounder that they had on the table.

Apparently from Pick 8 in the 2024 draft they were offering up their 2025 pick, originally as a direct swap and then, according to the NM list boss, from the late teens onwards they were looking at getting something back.

Of course they finally did the deal with Richmond.
The Tigers pick 27 (2024) and Richmond's 2nd rounder (2025) for NM's 1st pick in 2025.

It seems to me to be a potential missed opportunity for the Swans.

This is the league ladder at the end of 2024;
View attachment 2174584

Does anyone see NM making significant improvement?
For example Adelaide in 15th spot, 'won' 5 and a half games more and had a % better by 30%.

In 2025 we have 3 relatively highly rated Academy players.
Twomey had King in his 10 to watch for 2025 and rookieme central had King, Carmichael and Chamberlain on their 25 for 2025 watchlist.
(As an aside Kade Herbert made both lists for 2024 and went undrafted, so certainly not foolproof).

Nonetheless I think it's reasonable to assume that there will be bidding on Academy players relatively early in the 2025 draft and that our 2025 1st rounder will need to be traded out to acquire points to meet bids.

So the question I have is why did we not trade out one of our 1st rounders in 2024 to acquire a likely very early pick in 2025 and hopefully pick up a top 5 player in that draft, prior to being forced to bid match.
In the worse case scenario of a bid coming for one of our academy players prior to our 2025 'NM' pick we would likely receive significant offers for that pick (and associated points).

Using positions and draft value index points equivalent for 2024;
Richmond pick 27 (703 points), Richmond 2nd rounder 2025 - pick 28 (677) total = 1380
NM pick 2 2025 (2517).

Difference = 1137 (equivalent to pick 15).

Now the DVI will change in 2025 and I have made the assumption that Richmond and NM will finish bottom 2 again, but nonetheless it indicates the desperation of NM to get back into the 2024 draft to select a KPD.

So doing the maths if we gave up pick 22 and our 2nd rounder in 2025 (again based on our 2024 finishing position) and similar bidding patterns year on end;
Pick 22 (845) and Syd 2nd rounder 2025 - pick 39 (446) total = 1291

Difference = 1226 (equivalent to pick 13).

So the points differential in trading with Richmond is marginally better (by 89 points), but it doesn't account for us being potentially worse in 2025 (Richmond of course can't be worse) and it provides greater certainty for NM with them having access to pick 22 rather than 27 and the potential for their target being off the board by 27.

Now yes lots of assumptions, but a deal that I think NM would have accepted (preferring 22 rather than dealing with the uncertainty of getting their target and working on a Swans drop off in 2025) and a deal that would allow us to pick up a top 5 player in 2025, when we are almost certainly going to have to trade out our 'natural' 1st rounder in 2025 for points to match bids on Academy players.

So the choice; lose Dattori (of course could still have been there at 26) and the points associated with our 2nd rounder in 2025 and pick up a top 5 pick in 2025 instead.

I would have done the trade.

tl;dr We should have traded pick 22 to NM for their 2025 1st rounder and picked up a top 5 player in 2025 prior to having match bids for our 2025 Academy prospects.

The difference between Richmond's F2 which will no doubt be the first pick of round 2 and our F2 could be as much as 15-20 with all the F/S and academy selections expected to occur next year.

 

[Bonz]

Dattoli for Campbell for me, unless he shows a fair bit in the prseason. Whoever shows more in the pre season gets that spot.

I liked what Campbell brought in as a forward in the late season.

Would like him to develop there over the offseason, his quick, can pressure and we know about his disposal

 

[Bloods86]

I liked what Campbell brought in as a forward in the late season.

Would like him to develop there over the offseason, his quick, can pressure and we know about his disposal

Should have happened years ago, but amen!

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I liked what Campbell brought in as a forward in the late season.

Would like him to develop there over the offseason, his quick, can pressure and we know about his disposal

My small issue is the bloke has no right foot. May work not completely against it

 

[bedford]

My small issue is the bloke has no right foot. May work not completely against it

I reckon what helped Luke Kennedy getting drafted was his ability to be as good on either side , Shifta picked that up as well.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I reckon what helped Luke Kennedy getting drafted was his ability to be as good on either side , Shifta picked that up as well.

100% dual sides players are so valuable

 

[Bloods86]

100% dual sides players are so valuable

Plenty of great players without it though

 

[bedford]

Plenty of great players without it though

Goodes had a great left foot , but didn't use it too often .
What i meant was that it could've been the difference between a main list spot instead of a rookie spot

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Plenty of great players without it though

True but players that do are highly sought after

 

[Bloods86]

True but players that do are highly sought after

We're talking in the context of Campbell. Who still somehow performed well enough, in part as a half forward, to be Pick 5.

Maybe he just had more time in juniors, but we won't know unless we actually try it properly.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

We're talking in the context of Campbell. Who still somehow performed well enough, in part as a half forward, to be Pick 5.

Maybe he just had more time in juniors, but we won't know unless we actually try it properly.

Generous him being worth pick 5, but we got Gulden on the cheap so it’s one overpay and one underpay so it’s fine

 

[Bloods86]

Generous him being worth pick 5, but we got Gulden on the cheap so it’s one overpay and one underpay so it’s fine

I never rated him higher than Gulden (who was a steal), but also, how would we know how much it was overs, given he's not been played where he was drafted.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I never rated him higher than Gulden (who was a steal), but also, how would we know how much it was overs, given he's not been played where he was drafted.

Spending pick 5 on a half forward is overs even if it does work out. There was hope he’d turn into a mid it won’t happen. Just need to accept it won’t happen now will the coaching staff who knows.

 

[Bloods86]

Spending pick 5 on a half forward is overs even if it does work out. There was hope he’d turn into a mid it won’t happen. Just need to accept it won’t happen now will the coaching staff who knows.

That's your opinion.

 

[bedford]

Ive been on the Bulldogs and Tigers boards to see how they reacted to Kennedy and Armstrong.
Full credit to the Bulldogs board , happy and respective to the boy and then wow to the Tigers , just shows why they are about the worst supporters going around , absolute rats some of them .

 

[TheGong]

Spending pick 5 on a half forward is overs even if it does work out. There was hope he’d turn into a mid it won’t happen. Just need to accept it won’t happen now will the coaching staff who knows.

We never had pick 5 to spend on Campbell. We traded to accumulate enough points for Gulden and Campbell and our first pick after 4 was 33. Campbell has not developed as much as we hoped for as yet but when looked at in its entirety turning our late picks into Campbell and Gulden was the right move.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

We never had pick 5 to spend on Campbell. We traded to accumulate enough points for Gulden and Campbell and our first pick after 4 was 33. Campbell has not developed as much as we hoped for as yet but when looked at in its entirety turning our late picks into Campbell and Gulden was the right move.

It was the right move still is overs for where he was rated no idea how he got the rating but whatever we got Gulden on the cheap and Campbell overs works out even

 

[Wheresbuddy]

We got Campbell for 33,36,45 and 52 in a weak draft. Look he's not setting the world on fire but on numerous levels, he was still worth the picks.

 

[McRobie]

McDonald needs to keep improving but calling him a bust is ridiculous.

Try reading what I said instead of melting down. I said he “looks like a bust”. Don’t say he WAS a bust.

 

[McRobie]

Key forwards take time and his work rate is 1st class , let's hope he goes to another level and remember the blokes around him vanish at times , McLean , Amartey and Wayward

I agree with what you’re saying, he is taking time and Amarty, Wayward and McLean look bottom 4-5 for the most part.
I think McDonald isn’t impacting as your would like as a pick 4, I would love to see a breakout in his 4th year.

 

[McRobie]

I would hardly call Logan a failure.

His improving by the season, and ended out with 32 goals in 23 and 37 in 24. His only 22 and still building as well.

Next year his on track for a 45 odd goal season as a player who leads up the ground and also also assists in defence. His several years younger than Amartey/ Mclean and well and truly ahead of the two of them at the same age. Will easily be playing 200 odd games in our side.

I haven't been all in on every first round pick we have selected and have had doubts on players before, but all being said outside of turning up on that last Saturday in September (yes it hurts, but there is no reason to overreact about it), our club has shown to be pretty astute in their recruiting generally and can build a successful list (Something we have been doing for over 20 years now).

Also note Rowbottom was a mid 20's pick (similar to both lads we drafted this year), generally that's second round. (It's good to note that players drafted between 20-30 in the draft play on average 67 games with their drafted club, our ratio here really isn't that bad.

Lastly I never called you an idiot in any of my posts. I never attack the man, nor do I attack freshly drafted players who would likely be reading all these comments on themselves after they get drafted.

I didn’t call him a failure, where did I say that? I said he looks like a bust and as he’s playing now he doesn’t look great.
You’ve completely ignored the fact we’ve busted on every first round since 2018 but I guess that doesn’t suit you’re narrative.

 

[Kiama Chris]

I would hardly call Logan a failure.

His improving by the season, and ended out with 32 goals in 23 and 37 in 24. His only 22 and still building as well.

Next year his on track for a 45 odd goal season as a player who leads up the ground and also also assists in defence. His several years younger than Amartey/ Mclean and well and truly ahead of the two of them at the same age. Will easily be playing 200 odd games in our side.

I haven't been all in on every first round pick we have selected and have had doubts on players before, but all being said outside of turning up on that last Saturday in September (yes it hurts, but there is no reason to overreact about it), our club has shown to be pretty astute in their recruiting generally and can build a successful list (Something we have been doing for over 20 years now).

Also note Rowbottom was a mid 20's pick (similar to both lads we drafted this year), generally that's second round. (It's good to note that players drafted between 20-30 in the draft play on average 67 games with their drafted club, our ratio here really isn't that bad.

Lastly I never called you an idiot in any of my posts. I never attack the man, nor do I attack freshly drafted players who would likely be reading all these comments on themselves after they get drafted.

To me the big point with Logan is how far from goal he is asked to play. IMO it has cost him 10 goals or thereabouts. If he is played closer to goal and has better chemistry with Amartey in particular I reckon he'll go close to 50 this year. That would be a very fair return.

 

[McGowan3]

100% dual sides players are so valuable

Bob Skilton, who was naturally left footed, was just as skilled with his right. Pretty sure one season when he had an injury to his left leg, he participated in World of Sport's Champion Kick Competition using his right. Made the final round IIRC. Each competitor had to be accurate kicking for goal and there was a longest kick section. They also had to kick drop kicks, stab passes and torpedo punts. He was a freakishly skilled player.

Greg Williams was another who had a great wrong (left) foot. Along with his vision and footy brain, it more than made up for his lack of speed.

 

[Bonz]

I didn’t call him a failure, where did I say that? I said he looks like a bust and as he’s playing now he doesn’t look great.
You’ve completely ignored the fact we’ve busted on every first round since 2018 but I guess that doesn’t suit you’re narrative.

You called him a bust, and even doubled down here saying we've busted on every first round pick since 2018 thats essentially calling him a failure. Also Logan is doing more than fine for a 21-22 year old key forward well above average in this regard especially one who was impacted by covid years.

I also wouldn't say we have busted every first round selection since 2018, definitely had some failures but some selections are still up in the air. Plus overall our drafts have been successes with plenty of hits in the second and third rounds. Overall we are ahead of most clubs with our recent drafting and our recent success and young list shows it.

2023 - Will Green - Young developing ruckman, showed some great signs in the reserves this year. Too early to call a bust or not. Clearly (Academy) and Snell both developing nicely, but too early to tell.
2022 - Konstanty - Yeah is a bust, no arguments there (But we have been on record saying we didn't rate this draft). Only Mitchell and Owen remaining from this draft - Failure
2021 - Sheldrick - Injuries aside when he has been in the side he has performed (In particular his stint in 2023 in our side). Ideally he gets a preseason this year, honestly I think he will be a ripping player and his rated highly within the club (This draft in general is shaping to be a belter for us with Roberts and Corey Warner picked after him). Pass
2020 - McDonald - Big tick at this stage, Campbell Academy - Definitely needs to step up this year but showing signs, Gulden Academy. Pass
2019 - Stephens - Not a talent issue and was rated around our pick, but a bust at this selection. Missed on Gould and Taylor (for reasons outside our control) but this draft is given a big tick due to our selection of Chad Warner. Pass
2018 - Blakey Academy - Big tick. Rowbottom and McInerney both selected in second round. Pass

Overall I would call 4 of our last 6 drafts passes with one failure and 2023 is far too early to make a call on yet. Even if you look at just our first round selections they have been a bit hit and miss, but look through other clubs recent draft history and majority are like that.