List Mgmt. 2024 Draft - The Final Countdown

What Do We Do With Pick 6(7)

  • Trade Up For FOS/Lalor

  • Jagga Smith

  • Harvey Langford

  • Josh Smillie

  • Alix Tauru

  • Murphy Reid

  • Other


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Pick 10 + 23 for Pick 8 + 32 + F3 (Saints)

Pick 8 + 20 for pick 2 + F3 (North) - if they want 18 it’s their F2.

I don’t think they’ll go for 10 or later as the trade for pick 2. Pick 8 is potentially the latest because they will still have a high chance of getting Tauru.

Melbourne are unlikely to take Tauru at 5 as the mid they want will be gone by 9.

St Kilda may be more likely to take Tauru at 7 but potentially miss out on a Travaglia or sliding midfielder or someone else they rate higher.

Lalor, FOS, Smillie…
 
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I know almost everyone has us taking Smillie at 6.

After the pod tonight I watched 10 min of footage of him and I honestly didn't have anything jump out at me saying 'yep, we MUST take this guy'.

If Jagga or Draper somehow get to 6 I'd be all on board for them I think.

All about how he projects as an AFL player a few years into the system imo.

He hunts the ball, has nice spatial awareness and agility, a neat ball user and obviously has a frame that will enable him to add strength and size with a few years in the AFL system.

He’s well below Jagga and Draper’s in terms of pure midfield craft, but if he can develop into the genuine big body mid who can be a legit resting forward (good ish forward craft but poor aerially) he provides a point of difference that Jagga and Draper don’t and won’t ever have.

Bigger risk but bigger reward in my view; which is why the risk might be more palatable at 6/7.
 

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I know almost everyone has us taking Smillie at 6.

After the pod tonight I watched 10 min of footage of him and I honestly didn't have anything jump out at me saying 'yep, we MUST take this guy'.

If Jagga or Draper somehow get to 6 I'd be all on board for them I think.

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Pick 10 + 23 for Pick 8 + 32 + F3 (Saints)

Pick 8 + 20 for pick 2 + F3 (North) - if they want 18 it’s their F2.

I don’t think they’ll go for 10 or later as the trade for pick 2. Pick 8 is potentially the latest because they will still have a high chance of getting Tauru.

Melbourne are unlikely to take Tauru at 5 as the mid they want will be gone by 9.

St Kilda may be more likely to take Tauru at 7 but potentially miss out on a Travaglia or sliding midfielder or someone else they rate higher.

Lalor, FOS, Smillie…
Who's the mid?
 
None. If we did, and he did, then he's the dumbest of dumb campaigners.

Why would it be dumb?

If I put myself into the shoes of a similar player, being drafted by Richmond looks an incredibly appealing proposition in comparison to the viable alternatives.

1. Big club, huge following, the prospect of lots of matches in front of huge crowds
2. Very stable club with an impeccible recent record for player treatment
3. a salary cap position that should see you on big money from a young age if you are good enough - which means making more money overall in your career
4. avoid North, interstate move, Melbourne & all their issues, Saints penchant for tragedy etc.

What exactly would be dumb about increasing your chances of getting to Richmond's second pick and avoiding most of those other clubs between pick 2 & 6 currently?
 
Geeze Lalor and Smillie could be an insane combo

If we go this way it definitely seems the club is looking towards potential upside as its biggest criteria this draft even if it means taking prospects that might be a little bit more of a risk over some safer bets

At this stage of the rebuild it makes the most sense
 

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Why would it be dumb?

If I put myself into the shoes of a similar player, being drafted by Richmond looks an incredibly appealing proposition in comparison to the viable alternatives.

1. Big club, huge following, the prospect of lots of matches in front of huge crowds
2. Very stable club with an impeccible recent record for player treatment
3. a salary cap position that should see you on big money from a young age if you are good enough - which means making more money overall in your career
4. avoid North, interstate move, Melbourne & all their issues, Saints penchant for tragedy etc.

What exactly would be dumb about increasing your chances of getting to Richmond's second pick and avoiding most of those other clubs between pick 2 & 6 currently?
Yeah we also finished 18th, had our worst season on record and had a 3 guns walk out on the club. Plus it's draft tampering.

It just wouldn't happen.
 
If we did and it got out our first draft pick will be in 2027

I suppose there might be ways of doing it without exposing the club to any risk. For eg:

1. Recruiter meets a player informally, takes the opportunity to sell the benefits of playing at his club
2. Player, suitably impressed, equires what sort of position he would need to get to in the draft to land at the recruiters club
3. Recruiter says "our 2nd pick we would certainly take you"
4. Player enquires as to how he could best make this happen
5. Recruiter says I can't tell you that & we are certainly not allowed to instruct players to play below their capabilities, but my suggestion would be speak to your manager and see if he can assist you with some suggested strategies.
6. Player speaks to manager. Manager says I am not allowed to advise you to play below your capabilities, but if you wished to fall to position x in the draft to get to your favoured club - & they have committed to taking you with that pick, it would clearly require that enough players play better than you to make you fall to that position.
7. Player hits a moderate patch of form.
 
Anyone tipped to be the No.1 pick in the AFL draft would typically be the standout athlete in his family – but Sam Lalor’s clan is not like the rest.
The Bacchus Marsh bull, who is likened to Dustin Martin and even wore the Richmond champion’s No.4 on his back for GWV Rebels and Geelong Grammar, is the popular choice to join the Tigers on Wednesday night and be the dux of this year’s draft class.
Sam Lalor’s physical playing style and dual-position impact are often compared to Dustin Martin.

Sam Lalor’s physical playing style and dual-position impact are often compared to Dustin Martin.Credit:AFL Photos
Rebels coach David Loader believes Lalor is the closest prospect he has seen to Martin, from his destructive fend-off to his dual-position impact, toughness, power, strength, marking and clean skills.
Lalor would be the Rebels’ second top pick in three years, behind GWS forward Aaron Cadman, and could headline a record haul for the country club. Jonty Faull, Ollie Hannaford, Jack Ough, Rhys Unwin and Floyd Burmeister are among the hopefuls in this year’s draft.

“The way I see it – it hasn’t happened yet, so I haven’t read into [the No.1 hype] too much. But if that happened; I’d be really privileged and grateful,” Lalor told this masthead.
“There’s still a long way to go, and I’ve got no idea what’s going to happen, so we’ll see on the night [but] it would be a dream come true [to wear Martin’s number at Richmond].”
Lalor has work to do to be No.1 in his own extended family, given his cousin Jordan Petaia represented the Wallabies at the last two rugby World Cups and is set to pursue an NFL career via the American sport’s international player pathway.
Lalor’s grandfather, Ray, played six games for Essendon in 1956, and he is also related to John O’Neill, who made 136 appearances for Geelong between 1954 and 1962.


The family also has an extensive cricket connection, including Lalor himself, who was a bull-at-a-gate batsman before focusing on football.
His cousin Jack plundered 94 for Northcote in Victorian Premier Cricket at the weekend and has played for Victoria’s second XI, while Jack’s brother Archie was the last player cut from Australia’s under-19 World Cup squad.




Sam Lalor is an absolute bull 😤 | 2024 Telstra AFL Draft prospect highlights


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“It makes for pretty awesome backyard cricket,” Lalor said.
Lalor also counts cricket prodigy Ollie Peake as a close friend. The pair helped Geelong Grammar win back-to-back APS titles this year.

“I think that was my last hurrah [in cricket] for the time being, and I was pretty emotional actually,” he said.
“I didn’t get to play the last few games with injury, but to play a couple of games with ‘Peakey’ was pretty special because he’s one of my best mates. Hopefully, we’ll see him out on the ’G one day, on Boxing Day.”
Injury was an unfortunate theme in Lalor’s draft year.
He hyperextended his right knee late last year and that dragged into the pre-season – sidelining him from his week with Western Bulldogs as part of the AFL academy – then hurt his right hip playing cricket for Geelong Grammar, which kept him out of the early Talent League rounds.

A right ankle setback cost Lalor another month, and there was also a quad issue, but the biggest blow came in September when he suffered a season-ending grade three strain to his left hamstring tendon.
“It was tough because I haven’t had a base, and there was a lot of expectation through the year, especially going into the [under-18] champs, and I was under-prepared,” he said. “I don’t think I’ve been at my best all year.”
Lalor is firming as the player Richmond are likely to take with the coveted first draft pick.

Lalor is firming as the player Richmond are likely to take with the coveted first draft pick.Credit:AFL Photos
Lalor’s torrid run means recruiters are mostly forced to project what he could become when assessing his place in this draft.
The consensus is the gifted teenager is worth the risk, although he will likely be eased in to whichever AFL club he lands at, much like George Wardlaw was at North Melbourne after repeat soft-tissue injuries in his draft year.

Loader is certain Richmond will be rewarded if they select Lalor and are patient.
“I would not be surprised at all if he goes No.1. As a 17-year-old, he was clearly the best prospect,” Loader told this masthead.
“Sam was only a pup then, but he bullied guys [on-field], and kept us in games. He’s a better person than footballer, and he’s a star of a footballer. He’s going to be super successful at whatever he does. I’m biased, but I reckon he deserves to be No.1.”
Lalor drew a cult following at Geelong Grammar, where he spent the past two years after previously attending St Patrick’s College in Ballarat. His father, Steve, one of 10 kids, said his son found that interest in him challenging initially, but had mostly handled it well with the support of family and friends.

They will be by his side again on draft night for the biggest moment of his life so far, then will unite again in Bacchus Marsh on Sunday for a belated and joint celebration of Lalor’s 18th birthday and his sister Eve’s 21st.
The Tigers have not given the Lalors – including Steve’s wife Caitlyn and two other children, Will and Ivy – any indication of their plans, but visited the family home during the recent school holidays.
“Sam’s worked pretty hard with his cricket and footy, and been very self-motivated, so hopefully, he’s about to reap a few rewards,” Steve said.
“We’ll need to be a bit mindful of keeping an eye out for him, and make sure there are good people around him. We will probably become known as the parents of the No.1 draft pick [if it happens].”
 
Yeah we also finished 18th, had our worst season on record and had a 3 guns walk out on the club. Plus it's draft tampering.

It just wouldn't happen.

I am not suggesting we straight out told him to play slow, see my post above for a more likely scenario.

But if you were in similar shoes to the player, would you actually be put off by us finishing 18th(due entirely to a historically bad run of injuries) & losing 3 "guns" but gaining 5 extra rd 1 picks for them in a strong draft - and opening huge cap space?

I certainly wouldn't. Even less so if my viable alternatives were North, Crows, Demons, Saints.
 
All about how he projects as an AFL player a few years into the system imo.

He hunts the ball, has nice spatial awareness and agility, a neat ball user and obviously has a frame that will enable him to add strength and size with a few years in the AFL system.

He’s well below Jagga and Draper’s in terms of pure midfield craft, but if he can develop into the genuine big body mid who can be a legit resting forward (good ish forward craft but poor aerially) he provides a point of difference that Jagga and Draper don’t and won’t ever have.

Bigger risk but bigger reward in my view; which is why the risk might be more palatable at 6/7.
Smillie = Josh Caddy? Caddy was drafted at pick 7.
 

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List Mgmt. 2024 Draft - The Final Countdown

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