List Mgmt. 2024 Draft - The Final Countdown

What Do We Do With Pick 6(7)

  • Trade Up For FOS/Lalor

  • Jagga Smith

  • Harvey Langford

  • Josh Smillie

  • Alix Tauru

  • Murphy Reid

  • Other


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Pick 10 + 23 for Pick 8 + 32 + F3 (Saints)

Pick 8 + 20 for pick 2 + F3 (North) - if they want 18 it’s their F2.

I don’t think they’ll go for 10 or later as the trade for pick 2. Pick 8 is potentially the latest because they will still have a high chance of getting Tauru.

Melbourne are unlikely to take Tauru at 5 as the mid they want will be gone by 9.

St Kilda may be more likely to take Tauru at 7 but potentially miss out on a Travaglia or sliding midfielder or someone else they rate higher.

Lalor, FOS, Smillie…
 
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I know almost everyone has us taking Smillie at 6.

After the pod tonight I watched 10 min of footage of him and I honestly didn't have anything jump out at me saying 'yep, we MUST take this guy'.

If Jagga or Draper somehow get to 6 I'd be all on board for them I think.

All about how he projects as an AFL player a few years into the system imo.

He hunts the ball, has nice spatial awareness and agility, a neat ball user and obviously has a frame that will enable him to add strength and size with a few years in the AFL system.

He’s well below Jagga and Draper’s in terms of pure midfield craft, but if he can develop into the genuine big body mid who can be a legit resting forward (good ish forward craft but poor aerially) he provides a point of difference that Jagga and Draper don’t and won’t ever have.

Bigger risk but bigger reward in my view; which is why the risk might be more palatable at 6/7.
 

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I know almost everyone has us taking Smillie at 6.

After the pod tonight I watched 10 min of footage of him and I honestly didn't have anything jump out at me saying 'yep, we MUST take this guy'.

If Jagga or Draper somehow get to 6 I'd be all on board for them I think.

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Pick 10 + 23 for Pick 8 + 32 + F3 (Saints)

Pick 8 + 20 for pick 2 + F3 (North) - if they want 18 it’s their F2.

I don’t think they’ll go for 10 or later as the trade for pick 2. Pick 8 is potentially the latest because they will still have a high chance of getting Tauru.

Melbourne are unlikely to take Tauru at 5 as the mid they want will be gone by 9.

St Kilda may be more likely to take Tauru at 7 but potentially miss out on a Travaglia or sliding midfielder or someone else they rate higher.

Lalor, FOS, Smillie…
Who's the mid?
 
None. If we did, and he did, then he's the dumbest of dumb campaigners.

Why would it be dumb?

If I put myself into the shoes of a similar player, being drafted by Richmond looks an incredibly appealing proposition in comparison to the viable alternatives.

1. Big club, huge following, the prospect of lots of matches in front of huge crowds
2. Very stable club with an impeccible recent record for player treatment
3. a salary cap position that should see you on big money from a young age if you are good enough - which means making more money overall in your career
4. avoid North, interstate move, Melbourne & all their issues, Saints penchant for tragedy etc.

What exactly would be dumb about increasing your chances of getting to Richmond's second pick and avoiding most of those other clubs between pick 2 & 6 currently?
 
Geeze Lalor and Smillie could be an insane combo

If we go this way it definitely seems the club is looking towards potential upside as its biggest criteria this draft even if it means taking prospects that might be a little bit more of a risk over some safer bets

At this stage of the rebuild it makes the most sense
 

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Why would it be dumb?

If I put myself into the shoes of a similar player, being drafted by Richmond looks an incredibly appealing proposition in comparison to the viable alternatives.

1. Big club, huge following, the prospect of lots of matches in front of huge crowds
2. Very stable club with an impeccible recent record for player treatment
3. a salary cap position that should see you on big money from a young age if you are good enough - which means making more money overall in your career
4. avoid North, interstate move, Melbourne & all their issues, Saints penchant for tragedy etc.

What exactly would be dumb about increasing your chances of getting to Richmond's second pick and avoiding most of those other clubs between pick 2 & 6 currently?
Yeah we also finished 18th, had our worst season on record and had a 3 guns walk out on the club. Plus it's draft tampering.

It just wouldn't happen.
 
If we did and it got out our first draft pick will be in 2027

I suppose there might be ways of doing it without exposing the club to any risk. For eg:

1. Recruiter meets a player informally, takes the opportunity to sell the benefits of playing at his club
2. Player, suitably impressed, equires what sort of position he would need to get to in the draft to land at the recruiters club
3. Recruiter says "our 2nd pick we would certainly take you"
4. Player enquires as to how he could best make this happen
5. Recruiter says I can't tell you that & we are certainly not allowed to instruct players to play below their capabilities, but my suggestion would be speak to your manager and see if he can assist you with some suggested strategies.
6. Player speaks to manager. Manager says I am not allowed to advise you to play below your capabilities, but if you wished to fall to position x in the draft to get to your favoured club - & they have committed to taking you with that pick, it would clearly require that enough players play better than you to make you fall to that position.
7. Player hits a moderate patch of form.
 
Yeah we also finished 18th, had our worst season on record and had a 3 guns walk out on the club. Plus it's draft tampering.

It just wouldn't happen.
Smillie wants to play for Richmond...

secret smell GIF
 
Yeah we also finished 18th, had our worst season on record and had a 3 guns walk out on the club. Plus it's draft tampering.

It just wouldn't happen.

I am not suggesting we straight out told him to play slow, see my post above for a more likely scenario.

But if you were in similar shoes to the player, would you actually be put off by us finishing 18th(due entirely to a historically bad run of injuries) & losing 3 "guns" but gaining 5 extra rd 1 picks for them in a strong draft - and opening huge cap space?

I certainly wouldn't. Even less so if my viable alternatives were North, Crows, Demons, Saints.
 
All about how he projects as an AFL player a few years into the system imo.

He hunts the ball, has nice spatial awareness and agility, a neat ball user and obviously has a frame that will enable him to add strength and size with a few years in the AFL system.

He’s well below Jagga and Draper’s in terms of pure midfield craft, but if he can develop into the genuine big body mid who can be a legit resting forward (good ish forward craft but poor aerially) he provides a point of difference that Jagga and Draper don’t and won’t ever have.

Bigger risk but bigger reward in my view; which is why the risk might be more palatable at 6/7.
Smillie = Josh Caddy? Caddy was drafted at pick 7.
 
Caddy was great overhead but wasn’t a great mid. It’s like the inverse of Smillie

Smillie is a very good endurance athlete, runs about the same time as Jagga and Fos and Langford

He also has a good 20m time, and a proven clearance winner

No comparison to Josh Caddy or RCD

Trust the process
 
Why would it be dumb?

If I put myself into the shoes of a similar player, being drafted by Richmond looks an incredibly appealing proposition in comparison to the viable alternatives.

1. Big club, huge following, the prospect of lots of matches in front of huge crowds
2. Very stable club with an impeccible recent record for player treatment
3. a salary cap position that should see you on big money from a young age if you are good enough - which means making more money overall in your career
4. avoid North, interstate move, Melbourne & all their issues, Saints penchant for tragedy etc.

What exactly would be dumb about increasing your chances of getting to Richmond's second pick and avoiding most of those other clubs between pick 2 & 6 currently?
It is always a dangerous move to handicap yourself. Do it too often and it could become your norm. Football is a sport that you really cant modulate like say Motorsport. Drivers can drive to a target time below the limit of their machinery.
 
I remember that draft well and there were loads of highly rated players we bypassed to reach for Conca, so it peeved me at the time - and he never lived up anywhere close to his top-6 billing.

Looking back now on a phantom draft at the time and Conca was rated 21st … and we reached at 6. Was just a strange selection at the time.


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A strange one, but not a terrible one. Phantoms had us taking Polec otherwise. Much of a muchness
 

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List Mgmt. 2024 Draft - The Final Countdown

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