Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup Day (3200m)no after timing posts.

[Areyoufireal]

Race order fore those on the same race multi places..

Winner: Knight's Choice
2: Warp Speed
3: Okita Soushi
4: Zardozi
5: Absurde
6: Circle of Fire
7: Fancy Man
8: Land Legend
9: Buckaroo
10: Kovalica
11: Vauban
12: Onesmoothoperator
13: Valiant King
14: Sea King
15: Interpretation
16: Sharp 'N' Smart
17: Trust In You
18: Mostly Cloudy
19: Manzoice
20: Positivity
21: The Map
22: Saint George
23: Just Fine

 

[FFB1]

This actually might be the worst melb cup in recent memory.

Fortunately we have internationals contending, otherwise it would only be locals which apparently all of Australia wants because they don’t know the internationals.

 

[FFB1]

Zero chance of backing Buckaroo at that price, will be taking him one out in a few exotics.

 

[Lunchtime]

Also have they missed a trick with Duke De Sessa not being nominated? With so little depth this year, surely would have been a chance or at least Top 5 finish.

Maybe they have doubts about Duke De Sessa running 3200m.

 

[lightred]

Land Legend’s run was good given the conditions and barrier but definitely not the $15 chance in the MC that TAB currently have him at.
They also have Point King at $10 … crazy.

Fair call - you really would need to take LL on trust that he could find 5-6 lengths if the track was firmer and he managed to settle better.

Point King - he looks slow. I really can't beleive he's $10. Would probably be $15-$20 if not a Lloyd williams horse. Jamie kah is another negative for me.

 

[Jugada]

Fortunately we have internationals contending, otherwise it would only be locals which apparently all of Australia wants because they don’t know the internationals.

Full field of "locals" such as Point King, Buckaroo, Land Legend, Circle of Fire, Athabascan, Just Fine...

We will literally have like 2 Aus horses in the field

 

[Lunchtime]

Usually in a Melbourne Cup you'd have top weights which were good, then horses in the middle range in terms weights which were good and then horses with light weights in the 49kg/50kg to 52kg.

I reckon it's been a few years since we have seen a "genuine lightweight chance" in the Melbourne Cup. The fields these days have lighter weighted horses who aren't much good. I reckon this contributed to Verry Elleegants dominant win. I mean sure she was a good horse but that high rating she produced to win the Melbourne Cup, she never produced that sort (or close to) rating again. In a stronger field with more depth she doesn't win a Melbourne Cup.

Anyway back to light weighted horses...there doesn't seem to be any good ones. I think back to horses like Brew (49kg), Rogan Josh (50kg), Jezabeel (51kg), Shocking (51kg) and Media Puzzle (52.5kg)...all horses with good form and with light weights. I miss that.

 

[Jugada]

If LL was 30s I could have him as an exotics type but odds are cast at the moment

 

[Jugada]

Usually in a Melbourne Cup you'd have top weights which were good, then horses in the middle range in terms weights which were good and then horses with light weights in the 49kg/50kg to 52kg.

I reckon it's been a few years since we have seen a "genuine lightweight chance" in the Melbourne Cup. The fields these days have lighter weighted horses who aren't much good. I reckon this contributed to Verry Elleegants dominant win. I mean sure she was a good horse but that high rating she produced to win the Melbourne Cup, she never produced that sort (or close to) rating again. In a stronger field with more depth she doesn't win a Melbourne Cup.

Anyway back to light weighted horses...there doesn't seem to be any good ones. I think back to horses like Brew (49kg), Rogan Josh (50kg), Shocking (51kg), Media Puzzle (52.5kg)...all horses with good form and with light weights. I miss that.

Yep class at the top of the weights has been the go to form of late

 

[Lunchtime]

Yep class at the top of the weights has been the go to form of late

Spot on mate because the lighter weighted horses - not much good.

 

[lightred]

If you like Buckaroo, do you get on now in the futures market or wait until official markets open ?

 

[Lunchtime]

If you like Buckaroo, do you get on now in the futures market or wait until official markets open ?

Probably get on now because I reckon despite the 3200m query...people will jump on based off his good run in the Caulfield Cup.

 

[FFB1]

Probably get on now because I reckon despite the 3200m query...people will jump on based off his good run in the Caulfield Cup.

Rock bottom price now, personally I’d wait until the day.

 

[FFB1]

Full field of "locals" such as Point King, Buckaroo, Land Legend, Circle of Fire, Athabascan, Just Fine...

We will literally have like 2 Aus horses in the field

That’s kinda my point (unless I misinterpreted). Imagine if none of them ever came cos only Australian bred stayers were eligible, would be a BM84 for millions.

 

[pendlebury_10]

Rock bottom price now, personally I’d wait until the day.

Will surely jump $5 on the day

 

[lightred]

Will surely jump $5 on the day

This is what I'm thinking

$9 win / $3 place looks a decent each way bet

 

[Jugada]

That’s kinda my point (unless I misinterpreted). Imagine if none of them ever came cos only Australian bred stayers were eligible, would be a BM84 for millions.

Yeah I know just loling at the people who want only locals

 

[Lunchtime]

If it was the 1990s for example local stayers would be ok (plus internationals) because tur locals were stronger. But nowdays and past few years the locals collectively.....

 

[Jugada]

Buckaroo will almost certainly start shorter on the day imo. Slashing run in the CC and WFA form stands out. Was probably more doubt on him running the trip on Saturday and punters still came for him on the day

 

[lightred]

It's interesting as there was quite allot of doubt about him getting from 2000 to 2400. Now he needs to go from 2400 to 3200 - I can definitely understand people doubting again or at least being willing to bet against him.

 

[Jugada]

It's interesting as there was quite allot of doubt about him getting from 2000 to 2400. Now he needs to go from 2400 to 3200 - I can definitely understand people doubting again or at least being willing to bet against him.

The doubts were because he flopped his only other run over the trip. Now we have seen him run the trip out strongly with the clear fastest last 200, 400, 600 etc in just his last start.

There should be less concern over running out a trip he has never seen than last week when our only form was a failed previous run at the trip

 

[lightred]

The doubts were because he flopped his only other run over the trip. Now we have seen him run the trip out strongly with the clear fastest last 200, 400, 600 etc in just his last start.

There should be less concern over running out a trip he has never seen than last week when our only form was a failed previous run at the trip

Great point. Do you have him on top at the moment?

 

[Jugada]

Great point. Do you have him on top at the moment?

Will go over properly once the dust has settled but almost certainly

 

[Lunchtime]

Will go over properly once the dust has settled but almost certainly

For me there is a query at the 3200m, it's an extra 800m. But a horse doesn't need to have prior 3200m form for the Melbourne Cup. So it will be a case of whether he gets the 3200m or not. Having said, Buckeroo will be in my trifectas etc. I'll be looking for something with a bit more value.

 

[Jamz]

Unfortunately we'll all be heading into the Cup with the same questions around Buckaroo, can he run it right out?

Historically they don't get off the plane and win the Cup, would have loved to have seen at least 1 run from the fav.

With that in mind, it opens it right up. If you like 1, back it. It is probably as good a chance as anything.

 

[Lunchtime]

Unfortunately we'll all be heading into the Cup with the same questions around Buckaroo, can he run it right out?

Historically they don't get off the plane and win the Cup, would have loved to have seen at least 1 run from the fav.

With that in mind, it opens it right up. If you like 1, back it. It is probably as good a chance as anything.

"Historically they don't get off the plane and win the Cup"

It's happened before.