Rumour 2024 Hypothetical trade and FA Thread

[Strapping Young Lad]

2024 Picks



2025 Picks

 

[Roddy]

Us and just about every other club.

Geelong will drop a farm in his lap....

 

[hawkinoz]

Thanks for clarifying about the pick deficit. I just don't see a trade to a pick only for that trade to be traded later on. It's not what we do. We are more likely to be targeting pick 18 onwards to a point. Going to 16 would be expensive given what's available and we may not have the draft capital.

I don't think the player we want will be there at pick 18 and if he is there Tigers will take him there. Going to 16 or earlier picks from 33 will be expensive and hard to do, hence my 2 step proposal to get to 27 or 28 with not much expense and then make the jump if the player we want is available from pick 11 onwards. Even Eagles may trade their pick 12 to slide to 27/28 if their main targets are gone. Same for clubs in 13-18 range.

Just proposing ways to be ready. Below is Cal current rankings & Hotton is ranked 16 ( around pick 13)

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' November ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his fifth and final Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

I like hawkinoz idea re the dons but a little differently. Get 28 and 31 for 33 and blues f2. They don’t need those picks to match bid. That gives dons 2xf1 and 2xf2 to trade back in after Kako bid. We target GWS pick 16 or more likely 21 for 28 and 31. With players leaving and many older stars they could use the extra pick in a deep draft.

Proposed the pick 28 trade earlier but Scum have lot more suitors for it as its a straight trade for futures. I would say we should shoot for that as well as 27(Not many suitors for Lions here). If by some fluke we hold 27 & 28+31 ( will mean we won't have both F2 & F3) then trade options improve. May be able to retain F1 and trade 27,28,31 for a pick btw 11-18 lot more easily. Even if we don't get a trade, we will get others coming for these picks as we will only use 1 given Cody & Gunners to be picked.

 

[TheFourPillars]

I don't think the player we want will be there at pick 18 and if he is there Tigers will take him there. Going to 16 or earlier picks from 33 will be expensive and hard to do, hence my 2 step proposal to get to 27 or 28 with not much expense and then make the jump if the player we want is available from pick 11 onwards. Even Eagles may trade their pick 12 to slide to 27/28 if their main targets are gone. Same for clubs in 13-18 range.

Just proposing ways to be ready. Below is Cal current rankings & Hotton is ranked 16 ( around pick 13)

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' November ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his fifth and final Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

Proposed the pick 28 trade earlier but Scum have lot more suitors for it as its a straight trade for futures. I would say we should shoot for that as well as 27(Not many suitors for Lions here). If by some fluke we hold 27 & 28+31 ( will mean we won't have both F2 & F3) then trade options improve. May be able to retain F1 and trade 27,28,31 for a pick btw 11-18 lot more easily. Even if we don't get a trade, we will get others coming for these picks as we will only use 1 given Cody & Gunners to be picked.

We are not going juggle picks to then downgrade those picks it just doesn't happen so close to the draft. I would suggest those picks if they were to be traded have already been discussed about and will happen on draft night. Once again we might do a trade on draft night to jump down to 24 or 25 or earlier from 33 for a specific player. We may even go to 27 if we know that player won't be there after that pick. The draft pick in itself is worthless to us, it's the player we are interested in that will determine the action for said draft pick. So, if the player we want is already gone we go plan b and c different players until we are left with pick 33.

Edit: There is also risk of holding multiple draft picks on the night when you are only picking one player is that you can't off load them for the price you want. Why take that risk unnecessarily.

 

[TylerDurden]

Geelong will drop a farm in his lap....

Agree. Cats.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

An early Christmas present hearing this.

I'm sure people are sick of me saying this, but I believe he'd be the best center square mid in the comp under Sam. I'd pay $1m a year over 6.

He will be getting offers of $1.2-1.4m a year and up to make him even look.

The cap is going up in clubs will pay to get his interest.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

We aren't getting LDU next year - don't even start to pin your hopes on that.

 

[FB19]

We are not going juggle picks to then downgrade those picks it just doesn't happen so close to the draft. I would suggest those picks if they were to be traded have already been discussed about and will happen on draft night. Once again we might do a trade on draft night to jump down to 24 or 25 or earlier from 33 for a specific player. We may even go to 27 if we know that player won't be there after that pick. The draft pick in itself is worthless to us, it's the player we are interested in that will determine the action for said draft pick. So, if the player we want is already gone we go plan b and c different players until we are left with pick 33.

Edit: There is also risk of holding multiple draft picks on the night when you are only picking one player is that you can't off load them for the price you want. Why take that risk unnecessarily.

Yes that’s true and most likely we just pick at 33 but we are just acknowledging we can’t see how we can use our current assets to get high enough to get the likely player we want so getting creative. If clubs know our strategy around number of picks we take as I’m sure they do then you are right it’s a risk. the alternative is would you prefer a player at picks 28 and 33 for example than 33 and Cody Anderson. Maybe.
Anyway not much to debate this year so good to get into the weeds it’s disappointing for a trade and draft lover but excellent for a hawks lover!

 

[StillAtLarge]

An early Christmas present hearing this.

I'm sure people are sick of me saying this, but I believe he'd be the best center square mid in the comp under Sam. I'd pay $1m a year over 6.

Ball hog, low footy iq, average skills and doesn't run out games very well.
Hard pass from me

 

[mustang]

We're definitely in the get LDU camp!! Be a great get if we can pull it off. The pies and Don's are knee deep as well.

After Roughy got his bonus last year he will go hard to make it a yearly bonus every year.

 

[mustang]

We aren't getting LDU next year - don't even start to pin your hopes on that.

With Rough getting a bonus for getting FA we will be getting someone you would think.

 

[Platten44]

Rumour has it Clayton Oliver

13

Clayton Oliver

Age

27

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.8

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

18.4

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

6.3

5star

CL

6.3

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

19.2

5star

K

4.6

2star

HB

14.6

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.8

5star

now owns a farm in Geelong. Trying to rent it out for 12 months.

 

[arupist]

Rumour has it Clayton Oliver now owns a farm in Geelong. Trying to rent it out for 12 months.

Surely they are going to run out of farms sooner or later. It's not like you can order a new batch to give away.

Just how many young guys are saying to themselves " Gee, I really want a farm. When I retire from footy I can get up at sparrow fart every morning to milk to cows, run around the chicken coop naked, ride a tractor ploughing the field until sundown, then get up the next morning and do it all again. Beats the hell out of playing footy."

 

[threesixpio]

Surely they are going to run out of farms sooner or later. It's not like you can order a new batch to give away.

Just how many young guys are saying to themselves " Gee, I really want a farm. When I retire from footy I can get up at sparrow fart every morning to milk to cows, run around the chicken coop naked, ride a tractor ploughing the field until sundown, then get up the next morning and do it all again. Beats the hell out of playing footy."

“I can drive the tractor in an orderly fashion, missing no sections of the property” said Clayton

“I can do lines all day”

 

[Dewnior]

“I can drive the tractor in an orderly fashion, missing no sections of the property” said Clayton

“I can do lines all day”

 

[tl92]

I don't think the player we want will be there at pick 18 and if he is there Tigers will take him there. Going to 16 or earlier picks from 33 will be expensive and hard to do, hence my 2 step proposal to get to 27 or 28 with not much expense and then make the jump if the player we want is available from pick 11 onwards. Even Eagles may trade their pick 12 to slide to 27/28 if their main targets are gone. Same for clubs in 13-18 range.

Just proposing ways to be ready. Below is Cal current rankings & Hotton is ranked 16 ( around pick 13)

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' November ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his fifth and final Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

Proposed the pick 28 trade earlier but Scum have lot more suitors for it as its a straight trade for futures. I would say we should shoot for that as well as 27(Not many suitors for Lions here). If by some fluke we hold 27 & 28+31 ( will mean we won't have both F2 & F3) then trade options improve. May be able to retain F1 and trade 27,28,31 for a pick btw 11-18 lot more easily. Even if we don't get a trade, we will get others coming for these picks as we will only use 1 given Cody & Gunners to be picked.

Taj Hotton not invited to night one of the draft. Only reason I hold hope that maybe he slides a bit

 

[CHUBBSS]

Surely they are going to run out of farms sooner or later. It's not like you can order a new batch to give away.

Just how many young guys are saying to themselves " Gee, I really want a farm. When I retire from footy I can get up at sparrow fart every morning to milk to cows, run around the chicken coop naked, ride a tractor ploughing the field until sundown, then get up the next morning and do it all again. Beats the hell out of playing footy."

Dw they can always sell the sky, just imagine sky farms!!

 

[Clarkos_Soldier]

We're definitely in the get LDU camp!! Be a great get if we can pull it off. The pies and Don's are knee deep as well.

We better be neck deep in that case.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Taj Hotton not invited to night one of the draft. Only reason I hold hope that maybe he slides a bit

Didn't Phoenix Gothard miss getting an invite last year, but was thankfully on hand when he was called out early because he went as a guest of Connor O'Sullivan?

 

[tl92]

Didn't Phoenix Gothard miss getting an invite last year, but was thankfully on hand when he was called out early because he went as a guest of Connor O'Sullivan?

Yeah definitely not a guarantee that he slides but you’d think it makes it a chance at least

 

[hawkinoz]

Yeah definitely not a guarantee that he slides but you’d think it makes it a chance at least

No mock have I seen where Hotton has slid past pick 16, will happen only if GWS trade 16 to someone who has other priorities. If he still on board Dogs will surely pick him with next pick as he is a clear need given the Smith trade.

Was puzzled by the mention in draft thread about the chance of Bennetts being picked back. Will only happen if some club goes early on Cody compared to where we rate him & we don't match. Only seen one mock where he is picked in late 40's. Not even considered in 95% mock drafts.

Hoping for a 3 way trade with promise to trade 27 to scum if needed after Kako bid. They get a better pick back here compared to other offers, so likely to consider

Lions 27 <-> 33+65+77
Dons 28+65 <-> Blues F2+71
Hawks 33+71+77+Blues F2 <-> 27+28

After Kako bid, trade 27 for Dons F2 and whatever late pick is left on board for us to use for Cody. Going thru the picks of teams, can't see anyone having collateral to trade for pick 27. Lions should be interested to convert 27 to multiple picks so they gain points by the time Marshall bid comes around.

PS : I still want us to pick Cody even for a early bid. Well worth the punt. SS taken from here

2024 AFL Draft Guide View

2024 AFL Draft Guide The 2024 AFL Draft Guide features individual full-page profiles on each of the available AFL Draft Combine invitees.

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[The Golden Glenferrie]

Elite contested, strength and above average speed.

What more do you want?

 

[Brant]

It's obviously a question for Draft Night, but I wonder what value clubs would put on 33 + F2?

I'd be pretty happy to trade out of this Draft into a 2025 1st, if that we're at all possible.

 

[VandoHawk]

It's obviously a question for Draft Night, but I wonder what value clubs would put on 33 + F2?

I'd be pretty happy to trade out of this Draft into a 2025 1st, if that we're at all possible.

If you're using 33 + F2 to trade into next year there could be some interested parties given the perceived strength of this draft. Geelong may be interested trading back in. Brisbane may want back in after picking Ashcroft/Marshall.

I think I'd be more comfortable taking 33 though. There are some good quality talls with developable traits around that pick.

 

[FB19]

If you're using 33 + F2 to trade into next year there could be some interested parties given the perceived strength of this draft. Geelong may be interested trading back in. Brisbane may want back in after picking Ashcroft/Marshall.

I think I'd be more comfortable taking 33 though. There are some good quality talls with developable traits around that pick.

I think it’d depends on who is there but also whether we have a big play lined up where an extra first rounder helps that cause. Would be good to get a late pick back in the 60s in that scenario as I expect decent talent still there.

 

[Brant]

I think it’d depends on who is there but also whether we have a big play lined up where an extra first rounder helps that cause. Would be good to get a late pick back in the 60s in that scenario as I expect decent talent still there.

That's my thinking & why it would likely only be considered on Draft Night:
1. Who is still there, &,
2. Do we have bigger plans for 2025 & beyond.

This play would give us 2x 2025 1sts, with the ability to trade 2x future 1sts. Pick purchasing could net us another 1st, so there's a scenario where we could access 5x 1sts in 2025, if all played out that way.

I reckon I'd look to sell a late 1st to keep our side together or help fund role-specific targets via Free Agency (LDU etc. ).