List Mgmt. 2024 List Management Part 2 📃

[AndyLucimitis]

Suspect we will try for a pick upgrade on the Owies trade.

Out: Owies, pick 31
In: Pick 22

Similar to Fisher trade ??

 

[Arr0w]

It's far from moot. He wants out, the relationship looks pretty unsalvageable, and would prefer a 'big Victorian club'.

We have 2 x 1sts and 2 x 2nd round picks (this year and nexts), plus trade capital (Martin, Owies, Carroll, Pittonett) to get more points and picks in.

We have 2 x 1sts, and could pretty easily convert one of our 2nd rounders (and Owies, Martine, Caroll, Pitto etc) into another 1st rounder, for a grand total of 3 x 1sts.

For example:

1. We trade our F 1st to GCS for 13 and a 34. They'll want an extra 1st next year, and already have plenty this year.
2. We trade Owies for a second rounder (35 or so ballpark).
3. We trade Martin and a future 2nd to Freo for 27 and a future 3rd. This values him at a late 3rd round pick.
4. We trade 27, 31, 34, to Brisbane for 14 (gives them more points for Levi Ashcroft)

We're left with 11, 13, 14, 35, 62, 65, 69

We could drop those 3 x 1sts on the table, and leave it up to Melbourne what they want to do. They already have pick 5 and will get another 1st for Neale Bullen, potentially giving them 5 x 1st rounders in this draft to play with.

He's a proven matchwinner, top 10 AFL player, and Norm Smith medalist, and would improve our side significantly.

What would you think he is worth, picks wise

I'd say 2 x 1sts, with later picks coming back

I think we could generate the currency, but I'd say Demons would need to pay some of his salary, which would increase the picks

 

[Stamos]

Question, is Aleer as good as Haynes now?
If he is, I don't understand why Haynes is needed at all seeing we have Young and others who could fill in if Aleer is injured.

They're different players, but the point is we don't really have others who can fill in.
We are skinny for tall defenders as it is, and we'll be losing 3 off the list.

Post cuts we will have a total of 4 tall defenders, which is including Gov and Kemp. We have to get more in.

 

[mochacinolatte]

What would you think he is worth, picks wise

I'd say 2 x 1sts, with later picks coming back

I think we could generate the currency, but I'd say Demons would need to pay some of his salary, which would increase the picks

Wish the discussion evolevs into of not saying 2 x 1st round picks and specified like 2 x first round picks in the 12-18 range. Makes it less speculative and easier to discuss.

 

[Arr0w]

Wish the discussion evolevs into of not saying 2 x 1st round picks and specified like 2 x first round picks in the 12-18 range. Makes it less speculative and easier to discuss.

2 x 1sts in 10 to 14 range I think, with maybe a couple of late 2nds coming back

 

[Malifice]

Josh Schache would be a good back up forward to take as a rookie.

He's had 3 shots at it mate at 3 different clubs. He's 27 and has shown he's not up to it.

 

[I bleed Blue]

Welcome back Arrow. Place hasn't been the same without you!

 

[Malifice]

Suspect we will try for a pick upgrade on the Owies trade.

Out: Owies, pick 31
In: Pick 22

Pick 22 is worth 845 points. Pick 31 is worth 606 points.

That values Owies as worth around the same as Pick 53.

He's a proven AFL level small forward. He's worth a second rounder (a pick in the 30's) on his own.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Pick 22 is worth 845 points. Pick 31 is worth 606 points.

That values Owies as worth around the same as Pick 53.

He's a proven AFL level small forward. He's worth a second rounder (a pick in the 30's) on his own.

All depends how you rank the top 20 prospects vs the top 30+ there might be a big enough gulf in recruiters eyes to make that a worthwhile trade regardless of what the points calculator comes out with

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Pick 22 is worth 845 points. Pick 31 is worth 606 points.

That values Owies as worth around the same as Pick 53.

He's a proven AFL level small forward. He's worth a second rounder (a pick in the 30's) on his own.

Points value means nothing if we want a player around 22 but doubt he will be there after 30.

Money off the books and a chance to nab someone we rate highly in the draft is what the Owies trade will be all about

 

[jj1978]

Tomlinson anyone??? wanting out of the Dees.

 

[Pablito]

10 pick upgrade for Owies?

Nah straight swap for pick 22 or at worst send them a 4th rounder with him. People underrate his value to a team like North.

 

[Malifice]

Points value means nothing if we want a player around 22 but doubt he will be there after 30.

We don't want a player at 22.

We want points to pay for at least one (and potentially two) father sons.

Points matter to us this year.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Tomlinson anyone??? wanting out of the Dees.

Bloke is fit, that's a start. Pending list spots and other recruitments, I wouldn't be against it. Feel like we might be too tight on list spots to fit him in though, given he is (at the absolute best) a depth option and occupies the same position as Haynes would, but Haynes comes with leadership credentials, better historical form, and a potential segue into coaching.

 

[Blue__Balls]

We don't want a player at 22.

We want points to pay for at least one (and potentially two) father sons.

Points matter to us this year.

By all reports we already have enough points for our father/son picks, so Pick 22 is more valuable that multiple later picks.

 

[Malifice]

10 pick upgrade for Owies?

Nah straight swap for pick 22 or at worst send them a 4th rounder with him. People underrate his value to a team like North.

He's a 33 goal a season small forward, that's played all 23 games this year, with another 100 or so games in him at AFL level.

That's a 4-500k a year player, and a second rounder.

Tomlinson anyone??? wanting out of the Dees.

Happy to commit to him via the PSD, if the cap allows for it.

 

[Stamos]

Pick 22 is worth 845 points. Pick 31 is worth 606 points.

That values Owies as worth around the same as Pick 53.

He's a proven AFL level small forward. He's worth a second rounder (a pick in the 30's) on his own.

10 pick upgrade for Owies?

Nah straight swap for pick 22 or at worst send them a 4th rounder with him. People underrate his value to a team like North.

Would love #22 on it's own. Doubt we get it.

If we upgraded our 2nd, and got a late pick back as points for Ben Campo, it's worth it for us (unless we have another trade target with our 2nd). I doubt we take 3 picks before Ben.

22+58 for Owies & #31 (this is on the assumption that we don't win this week) values Owies at #42 (which is unders).

However it means we get a 2nd kid in the top 25 in the draft, + an extra 170 points.
Our 4 x 4ths could match a bid on Ben at #30

 

[Malifice]

By all reports we already have enough points for our father/son picks

We dont.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...-order-–-now-up-to-date-but-not-live.1370742/

And Matt Owies is a 33 goal small forward who played all 23 games this year in a side that sat in the top 8 for most of the season.

He's worth more than a slight pick upgrade valued at 240 odd points.

He's a mid to late second rounder.

 

[Jatz]

Any interest in Parfitt?

 

[Malifice]

Would love #22 on it's own. Doubt we get it.

We wont.

Mid to late second rounder for Owies.

If we want to trade up, we can bundle that second (and our own second) to the Lions (who will need points for Ashcroft) for their 1st.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

We dont.

Depends where bids come

 

[BigFrizz36]

Any interest in Parfitt?

Bloody oath. Status Quo haven't been the same since he died.

 

[Blue__Balls]

We dont.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2024-provisional-afl-draft-order-–-now-up-to-date-but-not-live.1370742/

And Matt Owies is a 33 goal small forward who played all 23 games this year in a side that sat in the top 8 for most of the season.

He's worth more than a slight pick upgrade valued at 240 odd points.

He's a mid to late second rounder.

Why don't we?

31 very likely covers us for Ben, the later picks almost certainly cover us for Lukas. Worst case is a bid for Ben comes just after our second round pick is used, but if that happens we can either trade future pick(s) in, or just carry the deficit forward to our 2025 second rounder.

By the time other bids have been matched, our three late picks will likely slide in a handful of spots. Call it 4 positions, so they become 58, 61 and 65. That's 395 points, and with the 20% discount still in play we can match a bid from Pick 36 onwards with no negative impacts. If a bid came immediately after our second, ie. at Pick 32, we're only short 72 points, which is another pick in the 60s. Trade a future fourth into this year and we're good, or we take the 72pt deficit into our 2025 second round and that picks might slide back four spots - no big deal. Lukas is sounding like a chance of lasting to the rookie draft.

I agree with your valuation of Owies, mind you, I think he's a pick in the mid/late 20's to the right team, worst case in the early 30s.

 

[Malifice]

Depends where bids come

11 (our current 1st rounder) is probably safe.

I'd expect a bid before 31 (our current second) on Ben though.

For mine, we can pretty easily farm a total of 3 x 1sts this year (for trades), while also having enough later picks to cover F/S bids.

We don't lose much doing that either, although we do effectively bow out of next years draft.

Now is the time to strike for mine. The window is open.

 

[Malifice]

Why don't we?

31 very likely covers us for Ben, the later picks almost certainly cover us for Lukas. Worst case is a bid for Ben comes just after our second round pick is used, but if that happens we can either trade future pick(s) in, or just carry the deficit forward to our 2025 second rounder.

By the time other bids have been matched, our three late picks will likely slide in a handful of spots. Call it 4 positions, so they become 58, 61 and 65. That's 395 points, and with the 20% discount still in play we can match a bid from Pick 36 onwards with no negative impacts. If a bid came immediately after our second, ie. at Pick 32, we're only short 72 points, which is another pick in the 60s. Trade a future fourth into this year and we're good, or we take the 72pt deficit into our 2025 second round and that picks might slide back four spots - no big deal. Lukas is sounding like a chance of lasting to the rookie draft.

I agree with your valuation of Owies, mind you, I think he's a pick in the mid/late 20's to the right team, worst case in the early 30s.

I want to get at least one of the Camporeale boys in (preferably both) but we also need to get in some quality 'ready to go' players.

The Window is open and our best player turns 30 next year. Getting some kids in that wont be ready for a few years is not the way to go.