List Mgmt. 2024 List Management thread - Trade Targets Part 2

[s_wd6]

The trade for Cerra was highway robbery for Carlton at the time. I’m still mad at that one and it is one of the reasons (amongst many) I dislike Carlton so much.

We drafted well with that selection but we should’ve got more for Cerra.

It was perfectly fair. Pick 6 and 35. He was good but he was nothing special. Maybe the second pick could’ve been in the 20s instead but that’s what happens when players are ooc.

If we had pick 6 in the year we traded for Jackson he would’ve gone for around the same.

 

[Docker82]

I find this Martin debate very interesting, he’s not a small forward but as a medium forward he’s better than both Banfield and Emmett, so there’s definitely room for him in the starting 22 if he can stay fit.

No one should have Banfield or Emmett in their best 22 anyway. Don’t kid yourself.

 

[King Huskii]

No one should have Banfield or Emmett in their best 22 anyway. Don’t kid yourself.

Enter Footskill

 

[wakojako]

Where do you think Berry will likely go?

Seems like a player we need.

He has been on the rise based on recent form. From Fox Sport in August;
Now in top-10 calculations after a brilliant, eye-catching carnival for Vic Country where he was one of the most dangerous players. He was a threat across all four games, finishing with nine goals and averaging 13.2 disposals and 5.5 score involvements. Berry is your typical high forward as he possesses top-end speed that allows him to get up the ground, as well as excellent creativity close to goal. Berry is a natural crumber, getting to the right spots to show off his cleanliness at ground level and innate goal sense. He’s kicked 25 goals for the Bushrangers this season — the most of any active Coates Talent League player — while also averaging 14.7 disposals and 4.1 inside 50s. He just looks like an AFL player.

This is only my opinion but take a look at the current ladder:
8. ESSENDON
7. ST KILDA
6. GOLD COAST
5. MELBOURNE
4. ADELAIDE
3. WEST COAST
2. NORTH MELBOURNE
1. RICHMOND

Realistically, there is zero chance of a team using a top five pick on Berry when there are much more exciting prospects ahead of him.

Gold Coast is going to draft Lombard, St Kilda are a potential threat but have much more urgent list needs and Essendon will draft Kako. I'm like 90% confident if we want Berry we will land him.

Because there are so many talented players, the real risk (or opportunity) will be trying to resist picking up a player that slides in the draft. If Lindsay is available I don't know if I could refuse him. He is going to be a star.

 

[fnerd]

This is only my opinion but take a look at the current ladder:
8. ESSENDON
7. ST KILDA
6. GOLD COAST
5. MELBOURNE
4. ADELAIDE
3. WEST COAST
2. NORTH MELBOURNE
1. RICHMOND

Realistically, there is zero chance of a team using a top five pick on Berry when there are much more exciting prospects ahead of him.

Gold Coast is going to draft Lombard, St Kilda are a potential threat but have much more urgent list needs and Essendon will draft Kako. I'm like 90% confident if we want Berry we will land him.

Because there are so many talented players, the real risk (or opportunity) will be trying to resist picking up a player that slides in the draft. If Lindsay is available I don't know if I could refuse him. He is going to be a star.

As much as I d love for us to draft Berry,yeah if Lindsay’s there id prefer we grab him and take a chance on some of the other smalls later in the draft- hannerford, dattoli,newton or Bradley all have their pluses.
Or even mid fwd /3rd tall types hynes and Davis

 

[Bicco]

he’s better than both Banfield and Emmett, so there’s definitely room for him in the starting 22

Neither of those 2 were in our last starting 22. It's a pretty low bar. If he's good over head, can kick a goal or two and is a one touch player, he probably replaces Frederick. He doesn't seem to be a high tackler but if he could do that it would be great. Just can't really comment on how his body would hold up because no one knows.
I hope we've exhausted all other options before drafting him though.

 

[stax on the mull]

The few times I remember seeing Martin at Carlton, and I would concede it wasn't recently, but I thought he was the only one in their forward 50m who did apply some pressure do the 1%ers...but they had a different set up to most teams with McKay and Curnow and sometimes a 3rd tall in De Koning or Silvagni back a year or so ago.

 

[King Huskii]

As much as I d love for us to draft Berry,yeah if Lindsay’s there id prefer we grab him and take a chance on some of the other smalls later in the draft- hannerford, dattoli,newton or Bradley all have their pluses.
Or even mid fwd /3rd tall types hynes and Davis

Not sure we need to draft Berry if we get Bolton.

Would rather a mobile player who could play multiple positions well.

 

[wakojako]

Not sure we need to draft Berry if we get Bolton.

Would rather a mobile player who could play multiple positions well.

We don't have enough ground ball players and are too reliant on clean football. We have the players to dominate clearance and contested marks, now we need the small forwards to crumb and create chaos. Bolton and Bery is a very dynamic and lethal duo.

 

[Taylor]

If a fit Martin isn't making B22 then we are top 4 next year, we can find room for him

If Martin is fit all year he will be a big part of why we are top four, and we are already just a few wins away from there.

 

[Vintage]

Neither of those 2 were in our last starting 22. It's a pretty low bar. If he's good over head, can kick a goal or two and is a one touch player, he probably replaces Frederick. He doesn't seem to be a high tackler but if he could do that it would be great. Just can't really comment on how his body would hold up because no one knows.
I hope we've exhausted all other options before drafting him though.

From our round 24 team he’d be in over Voss and Walters. Or Freddie who had a pretty average year imo. A fit Martin is a very solid upgrade on any of them.

Bolton would replace anyone but likely Johnson, fyfe, or O’meara would be first out.

 

[Bicco]

From our round 24 team he’d be in over Voss and Walters. Or Freddie who had a pretty average year imo. A fit Martin is a very solid upgrade on any of them.

Bolton would replace anyone but likely Johnson, fyfe, or O’meara would be first out.

I haven't seen enough of Martin to really comment outside of his highlights and stats. But after 10 years, you have an average so that's probably what we're going to get.

 

[FreoRicci]

The trade for Cerra was highway robbery for Carlton at the time. I’m still mad at that one and it is one of the reasons (amongst many) I dislike Carlton so much.

We drafted well with that selection but we should’ve got more for Cerra.

Now? Nah looks like we got the win. He’s in dreadful form.
Amiss is a generational full forward
Allowed Fremantle develop Young, who in his first full season in midfield is already better than Cerra.

 

[Moist Biscuit]

Now? Nah looks like we got the win. He’s in dreadful form.
Amiss is a generational full forward
Allowed Fremantle develop Young, who in his first full season in midfield is already better than Cerra.

Pick 5 with 76 games in 4 years, improved every season. If he were going to Freo from Carlton they would have expected 2 x 1sts with a 2nd going back. Obviously Amiss is a better footballer/prospect than Cerra, but just because they nailed the pick it doesn't make it a good deal.

 

[s_wd6]

Pick 5 with 76 games in 4 years, improved every season. If he were going to Freo from Carlton they would have expected 2 x 1sts with a 2nd going back. Obviously Amiss is a better footballer/prospect than Cerra, but just because they nailed the pick it doesn't make it a good deal.

How much would you have given up for Lachie Ash last year? Or Tom Powell this year?

 

[s_wd6]

Now? Nah looks like we got the win. He’s in dreadful form.
Amiss is a generational full forward
Allowed Fremantle develop Young, who in his first full season in midfield is already better than Cerra.

Wouldn't say dreadful form, just dreadful injury run. Was pretty good last year.

 

[stax on the mull]

Pick 5 with 76 games in 4 years, improved every season. If he were going to Freo from Carlton they would have expected 2 x 1sts with a 2nd going back. Obviously Amiss is a better footballer/prospect than Cerra, but just because they nailed the pick it doesn't make it a good deal.

The difference maybe between a Cerra and say someone like Pickett, not that you were making that comparison, but perhaps there's an extra weighting once players have played in a premiership side whereas Cerra just played 4 years in a team that struggled around the bottom half of the 8.

It's hard to make sense of player worth equivalence when there's talk that the AFL will give a Top 10 compensation pick to St Kilda when Hawthorn take Josh Battle via free agency.

 

[Docker82]

Pick 5 with 76 games in 4 years, improved every season. If he were going to Freo from Carlton they would have expected 2 x 1sts with a 2nd going back. Obviously Amiss is a better footballer/prospect than Cerra, but just because they nailed the pick it doesn't make it a good deal.

Exactly this. You're talking in hindsight and not in 2019 if you say anything else.

If we'd got pick 20 for Cerra would you be happy with the trade? Not if we'd drafted Fyfe? Now how often is pick 20 Fyfe? - Once!

Pick 8 and drafting Amiss isn't much different tbh. We should've got two first rounders for Cerra but we're weak at the trade table. We drafted Amiss, which is a fantastic result, but we should've got more than pick 8 and some borderline unusable picks.

 

[s_wd6]

Exactly this. You're talking in hindsight and not in 2019 if you say anything else.

If we'd got pick 20 for Cerra would you be happy with the trade? Not if we'd drafted Fyfe? Now how often is pick 20 Fyfe? - Once!

Pick 8 and drafting Amiss isn't much different tbh. We should've got two first rounders for Cerra but we're weak at the trade table. We drafted Amiss, which is a fantastic result, but we should've got more than pick 8 and some borderline unusable picks.

You guys are seriously overrating Cerra. He was a good player, but he was never elite, and never even close to being worth two firsts, especially being out of contarct.

14,15, 17, 23. Those were his disposal averages in his years with us. Who is paying more than one first for a midfielder with those numbers? Brayshaw that same year would have been worth two first round picks. Only way Cerra would've gotten two firsts was if they were 17 and 18.

"But B&F finishes" what about them? Does no one remember our list back then? Our injury lists too? Play a full season and you were basically guaranteed a top 10 finish. Trav Colyer finished 9th in Cerra's final year with us.

 

[Docker82]

You guys are seriously overrating Cerra. He was a good player, but he was never elite, and never even close to being worth two firsts, especially being out of contarct.

14,15, 17, 23. Those were his disposal averages in his years with us. Who is paying more than one first for a midfielder with those numbers? Brayshaw that same year would have been worth two first round picks. Only way Cerra would've gotten two firsts was if they were 17 and 18.

"But B&F finishes" what about them? Does no one remember our list back then? Our injury lists too? Play a full season and you were basically guaranteed a top 10 finish. Trav Colyer finished 9th in Cerra's final year with us.

He was a better footballer than Dylan Shiel and Adam Treloer were and they both fetched two first rounders with a second coming back.

The trade that was actually done suggested he lost value on his draft selection which is beyond laughable. If anything his first four years were better than most top five picks.

Post Brayshaw’s stats compared to Cerra in 2018-2021. They’re not much different. You now know what we Brayshaw has become and what Cerra’s injuries have made him become. You’re talking in hindsight.

 

[freo_leo29]

Cerra walked out in a bad year

List spots were super tight and players/clubs were coming off the uncertainty of wage and cap cuts

It was the perfect storm that worked against us


Lets just be eternally grateful that it ended up being Amiss in return

 

[Tbonefreo]

Should have picked naughty norten or Allen in hindsight

 

[s_wd6]

He was a better footballer than Dylan Shiel and Adam Treloer were and they both fetched two first rounders with a second coming back.

He was not better than Treloar or Shiel. Even Cerra's best season of football (Carlton 2023) wouldn't be close to Treloar or Shiel's top three seasons at the Giants.

Lets compare him with Treloar, in their fourth season, which they both got traded in:
28 touches, 4 marks, 4 clr, 1 goal assist, 7 score involvements a game + 14 goals for the year
23 touches, 5 marks, 3 clr, 1 goal assist, 5 score inovlements a game + 5 goals for the year

Not to mention Treloar had done the exact same thing the season before. That's comparing a 21 year old with 79 games who went at 28 touches and kicked 27 goals in his past two seasons to a 21 year old with 75 games who went at 22 touches (adjusted for shorter games) and kicked 8 goals in his past two seasons. Pretty big gap there. If you think Cerra was even close to Treloar, let alone better than him then you really are overrating him.

Post Brayshaw’s stats compared to Cerra in 2018-2021. They’re not much different. You now know what we Brayshaw has become and what Cerra’s injuries have made him become. You’re talking in hindsight.

Cerra's injuries haven't "made him become" anything. He played pretty much full seasons in his first two years at Carlton for similar numbers to his final year with us. 24.5 touches, 3.5 marks, 4 clr, 0.4 goal assists, 5 score involvements a game + 7 goals a year. Before this year where Cerra had his first injury affected season, there were only 7 games separating him and Brayshaw.

Brayshaw is a much better player which is why he improved singificantly over Cerra from 2021 onwards. Ridiculous to suggest that Cerra would be even close to his level now just because they started off similarly.

Just admit that you rated him much higher than he actually performed because of potential and expectation of his growth, not because he was actually that good of a player.

 

[s_wd6]

If you really want to have a sook about player value then make it about how we gave up a contracted 25 year old 2x b&f winner (reigning b&f and AA squad too) for pick 6 and an exchange of second rounders. That's ****ing atrocious.

Not the fact that we received the same return for a 21 year old who hadn't even shown half as much.

 

[eastfreo75]

Pick 5 with 76 games in 4 years, improved every season. If he were going to Freo from Carlton they would have expected 2 x 1sts with a 2nd going back. Obviously Amiss is a better footballer/prospect than Cerra, but just because they nailed the pick it doesn't make it a good deal.

It's like if you trade a player for pick 20 and you get Fyfe.