List Mgmt. 2024 List Management thread - Trade Targets Part 2

[go_the_dockers]

I dont have the same concerns on depth as you do. I think our bottom 6 is comparable to anyone that's not GWS and we need 1 or two more actual stars. I also think getting stars improves your depth and that regardless, improving players 20 to 30 on the list is extremely easy to do and can be done with picks 20+ without a fuss.

This is also the perfect draft to do that while bringing in a Bolton.

I agree with the bit in bold, it is a great draft.

Do you want to be watching Banfield play 22 games next year?

If we swap Switta with Bolton, then Banfield will be in the 22 again. If you consider Walters, Fyfe, JOM, Aish all getting older and we have had minimal injuries all year he will be locked into the 22.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I agree with the bit in bold, it is a great draft.

Do you want to be watching Banfield play 22 games next year?

If we swap Switta with Bolton, then Banfield will be in the 22 again. If you consider Walters, Fyfe, JOM, Aish all getting older and we have had minimal injuries all year he will be locked into the 22.

I have faith Simpson can run past him with another offseason and strangely enough, think your best 25 is fine if Banners is the 25th best player on your list. I also wouldnt be trading Switta for reasons already said. Walters and Aish arent best 25 anymore so it doesnt matter.

We can get Bolton and still draft 3-4 to players very easily and as much as you want draftees, there is minimal chance JL picks them ahead of Banners next year anyway so you'll be waiting till 2026 at least for that

 

[Cobbler]

If Isiah Winder was playing as well for Peel, as he is for his current WAFL side we would be all asking for him to come in.

Why shouldn't we be looking at him. Pretty sure he is available as a DFA.

Maybe we are looking at him.
Maybe he’s a last minute rookie pick up or 4th round selection type pick up.
But he’s not worthy of discussion, he’s a relative nobody.
Not saying he can’t play, but we have our heads buried if we’re passing on guys like Bolton and Baker because we’re looking at Winder.

 

[go_the_dockers]

I have faith Simpson can run past him with another offseason and strangely enough, think your best 25 is fine if Banners is the 25th best player on your list. I also wouldnt be trading Switta for reasons already said. Walters and Aish arent best 25 anymore so it doesnt matter.

We can get Bolton and still draft 3-4 to players very easily and as much as you want draftees, there is minimal chance JL picks them ahead of Banners next year anyway so you'll be waiting till 2026 at least for that

Trying to think the last time we had a really good draft pick, not playing.

I will back JL, that is a player has a really good preseason that he will play them. Erasmus and Johnson have not really smashed the door down.

 

[Taylor]

If Isiah Winder was playing as well for Peel, as he is for his current WAFL side we would be all asking for him to come in.

Why shouldn't we be looking at him. Pretty sure he is available as a DFA.

He should be looked at, just like last year every club should look at Hamish Brayshaw. But sometimes the attributes that make you a good player in the lower league aren't enough to compete at the AFL level.

 

[go_the_dockers]

He should be looked at, just like last year every club should look at Hamish Brayshaw. But sometimes the attributes that make you a good player in the lower league aren't enough to compete at the AFL level.

Athletically is where Hamish struggles.

Winder is an athletic freak.
Agility 8.18
2km 6:51
20m sprint 2.873 seconds
92cm and 90 cms one foot vertical jump
76cms for 2 foot vertical jump

If he is committed off the field, then we should draft him.

 

[Alfonz]

This is just my opinion. I just don't rate him as highly as other people. It is probably the easy misses than burn into the back of mind, plus the cheap goals he gets. Vs us he got 2 of the 4 goals by getting out the back, and having a team mate do the hard work for him.

I also have not seen Bolton really hurt sides when he has the ball in hand. I just don't think his skills are that good.

Add to the fact you only expect 30 goals from him a year, and he is just not worth the capital we would need to give up to get him.

Also, he relies on his pace massively. I see him dropping off once he hits 30 pretty quickly.

Once again, this is just my opinion on the games I have seen. I have not seen Richmond play that much.


1. Green 1.86 goals
4. Bolton 1.57 goals
3. Pickett 1.7 goals
2. Stengle 1.82 goals

1. Green has 1.2 GA's
3. Bolton .6 GA's
2. Pickett .7 GA's
3. Stengle .6 GA's

4. Green 2.2 tackles
2. Bolton 2.5 tackles
1. Pickett 3.6 tackles
3. Stengle 2.4 tackles


2. Green 15.75 possessions
1. Bolton 16.95 possessions
4. Pickett Possessions 12.55
3. Stengle 13.45 possessions.

You've missed out clearance numbers. Bolton is an elite centre square clearance player. Big point of difference over those other guys. Burst from stoppage is something we lack. Ideally you'd want size to go with it, but Bolton at least provides the breakaway speed.

And you would be better off using 2022-2023 stats for Bolton. I think he has had one foot out the door this year, Richmond are woeful, and Yze has also been using him weirdly (e.g. as a pseudo KPF target).

Another thing on Bolton. He loves playing at Optus. The Freo game was obviously an audition. And that's not hindsight. People were calling it as such at the time. Look at his games at Optus over the last 4 years. Very impressive. One dud game (low scoring slugfest ... raining?), and the rest of them he was in the top couple of Richmond players and polled Brownlow votes in most of them. Take out the dud game and he averages 24 disposals, 6 marks, 4 clearances, 2.4 goals, 1.3 Brownlow votes (if he gets 1 this year), 5 coaches votes, and 120 SC points.

Year	Venue	Description	Date	Opponent	Result	K	HB	D	M	G	B	T	GA	I50	CL	CG	BL	CV	DT	SC
2024	Optus	Round 17	Jul-06	Dockers	Loss 54-105	14	2	16	7	4	3	2	0	4	2	3	?	2 (5th)	102	98
2024	Optus	Round 5	Apr-14	Eagles	Loss 70-109	15	6	21	8	3	1	1	1	2	5	2	?	1 (5th)	105	129
2023	Optus	Round 18	Jul-16	Eagles	Win 98-60	13	10	23	5	2	4	3	1	3	1	1	3	6 (2nd)	99	105
2023	Optus	Round 13	Jun-10	Dockers	Win 85-70	22	11	33	3	1	0	5	0	11	6	5	2	9 (1st)	124	151
2022	Optus	Round 7	Apr-29	Eagles	Win 165-56	21	9	30	8	3	2	4	4	7	7	5	2	9 (1st)	136	139
2021	Optus	Round 20	Aug-01	Dockers	Loss 51-55	5	7	12	1	0	3	5	1	1	0	4	0	0	49	56
2021	Optus	Round 13	Jun-13	Eagles	Loss 81-85	13	10	23	3	1	1	4	3	8	3	5	0	0	90	96
2021	Optus	Round 12	Jun-05	Bombers	Win 123-84	11	10	21	5	3	0	1	3	7	3	1	1	7 (3rd)	89	119

 

[Eski3]

Sam Edmund is reporting that Port have reignited their interest in Kossie Pickett but we have also made enquiries

 

[Paracleet]

Winders stats are very similar to Kelly the year he got picked up. Have to say though the couple of times I've seen him play this year he looked like a WALF player to me. A good one, but still WAFL.

Plus he's playing on ball. Kelly didn't get drafted as mature ager on the expectation he'd become a starting AFL inside mid, it just happened. He'd be better off (even if Souths wouldn't) playing half forward and showing he demands a second go at the AFL there.

 

[guidodp15]

that highlight package shows why we need Bolton. A small forward who backs himself and goes goal first. We **** around with it in the 50 too much trying to do the team thing.

 

[Joao]

that highlight package shows why we need Bolton. A small forward who backs himself and goes goal first. We **** around with it in the 50 too much trying to do the team thing.

Yeah, I think its fine to have a team first attitude, but at some point someone needs to have the nads to just take the shot when the team stuff isn't on.

 

[gaskin]

If Isiah Winder was playing as well for Peel, as he is for his current WAFL side we would be all asking for him to come in.

Why shouldn't we be looking at him. Pretty sure he is available as a DFA.

We were looking at him for the mid-season draft but IIRC he chose to remain at Sowfs.

 

[freo84]

He's so ****ing good and is goal hungry which is what all of our current small forwards lack.

Inject that right into my veins...

 

[Docker82]

Fyfe and Walters will more than likely play under 15 games between them.
Hopefully JOM has another good year, but I can see him getting phased out like Aish has this year in 2026.

Getting someone like Baker for this reason, would help.

Baker would be the reason JOM is phased out IMO.

If Isiah Winder was playing as well for Peel, as he is for his current WAFL side we would be all asking for him to come in.

Why shouldn't we be looking at him. Pretty sure he is available as a DFA.

DFA can be done but I'd expect a Jeremy Sharp type situation would be more likely.

What happened was Sharp didn't nominate for the National Draft, we passed on our last rookie pick then listed Sharp day one of the SSP.

If Winder wanted to stay in WA and we wanted him I see no reason he'd nominate for the National Draft. Pick 60-odd could still get us an okay prospect but if it doesn't we just upgrade one of our rookies and look at others in the SSP.

 

[Dockeroo]

There is definitely a few people in this board who have their superannuation profile set to Cash Investments only!

Got to bank that safe 3-4% ROA and take no risks lol

 

[theGav56]

You do know this is Bigfooy not the Fremantle recruitment staff?

Clearly he is from the Richmond brains trust.

 

[theGav56]

Yeah, I think its fine to have a team first attitude, but at some point someone needs to have the nads to just take the shot when the team stuff isn't on.

A part of that is surely a coaching thing.

 

[go_the_dockers]

There is definitely a few people in this board who have their superannuation profile set to Cash Investments only!

Got to bank that safe 3-4% ROA and take no risks lol

Trading for players is the cash investment.

Hitting the stock market is the draft. You understand the right

 

[Joao]

A part of that is surely a coaching thing.

No doubt. But I don't believe JL wants blokes 25m out looking to pass though. Or mids streaming through the 50 kicking to a contest.

Our decision making in those moments is clearly not on point squad wide.

 

[Dockeroo]

Trading for players is the cash investment.

Hitting the stock market is the draft. You understand the right

In all seriousness we need to avoid hitting the draft this time. One player in round 1 is fine.

We already have Erasmus and Simpson at peel unable to get a game.
Then if cox and Pearce stay for next year you can add draper to that.

Then there could be THREE more first round draft picks sitting at peel losing value.
The Ed Allan effect.

I want ready made players like Baker and Bolton with those picks to push the likes of Aish and Banfield to peel, permanently.

 

[Taylor]

Trading for players is the cash investment.

Hitting the stock market is the draft. You understand the right

That's exactly how I see it too. The safest choice is trading for exactly the player you need/want rather than hoping you get a player as good as them with the selection you have.

Let's take a look at the strike rate of first round picks from pick #5 to #20, to keep numbers easy we will assume 22 games per season.

2015:
198 games = 100%
60% possible games played = 119 = 6 players in sample (6/16 picks unsuccessful)
8/16 moved/left clubs (drafting team fail)

2016:
176 games = 100%
60% possible games played = 106 = 7 players in sample (7/16 picks unsuccessful)
8/16 moved/left clubs (drafting team fail)

2017:
154 games = 100%
60% possible games played = 92 = 7 players in sample (7/16 picks unsuccessful)
10/16 moved/left clubs (drafting team fail)

2018:
132 games = 100%
60% possible games played = 79 = 6 players in sample (6/16 picks unsuccessful)
6/16 moved/left clubs (drafting team fail)

2019:
110 games = 100%
60% possible games played = 66 = 9 players in sample (9/16 picks unsuccessful)
6/16 moved/left clubs (drafting team fail)

That window is looking back the length of a long contract offered to attract a player to the club, the five to nine year offers etc. That's the direct comparison to what you can expect.

TLDR: The known quantity compared to an average of 48% of players taken in the draft will no longer be at the club they were drafted by and 44% won't have played more than 60% of possible games.

I put it to you that if you require two picks worth of player to retain and play the same as a known quantity, you may as well use two of them to get the known player.

 

[Dockeroo]

The main risk here is that Bolton gets distracted by off field affairs and puts the que in the rack when he gets over here.
Or does a Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

30

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

and coasts though games with conditional effort.

Surely the club have done their due diligence on the likelihood of that this time after the Hogan debacle?

 

[Duz97]

Bolton will try if he’s in a good team that’s just who he is. Hes gonna play well when the team play well and play shit when the team plays shit. but if we had Bolton this year we win 5 of the games under 3 goals we lost this year Bolton is the difference between top 2 and missing finals. That alone means he’s worth it id be happy to pay 2 firsts if Richmond pay 25-50% of his contract if not ports first and pick 25

 

[go_the_dockers]

In all seriousness we need to avoid hitting the draft this time. One player in round 1 is fine.

We already have Erasmus and Simpson at peel unable to get a game.
Then if cox and Pearce stay for next year you can add draper to that.

Then there could be THREE more first round draft picks sitting at peel losing value.
The Ed Allan effect.

I want ready made players like Baker and Bolton with those picks to push the likes of Aish and Banfield to peel, permanently.

Agree to disagree. Trading in contracted players very rarely works, and you always pay overs.

Happy with Baker, I think we could get him for a 2nd round pick.

I think if we got good outside mids, or forward pockets (including mids who can play forward) and they have a good preseason they should be able to play 10+ games next year.

Banfield, O'Meara, Aish, Walters, Worner, Wagner, Emmett and Sharp could all be pushed aside, even if it takes 3 or 4 good WAFL games.


Let's not forget that next year, the below players will be lucky to play 50 games between them and the year after, it could easily be under 25. This year they played 100. (5 positions in the 23 will be up for grabs with in 2 years)
Walters - 16
Fyfe - 21
Aish - 20
OMeara - 21
Banfield - 22

 

[apuchar]

Sharp was one of our best players for 3/4's of the season. He is probably just stuffed.