Game Day 2024 National Draft Preview Thread Part Deux - Draft Picks: 2 (R1), 62 (R4), 76 (R5), 86 (R6)

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From what I understand they've literally just convinced themselves it's gonna happen because they are the closest club to his mum's house. There will be a lot of tears if he stays, and even more if he goes to the Hawks or Pies.
I'm going to need to see Google Maps screenshots before taking this seriously.
 

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You don’t think a late trade will happen? I’ve got a weird feeling it will. Hope not, happy with where we sit.

If a trade was likely then Twomey would be running with it as a possibility - the complete opposite is happening though and the words 'very unlikely' are being repeated. It's easier for one team to keep their lips sealed regarding their plans on who they'd like to take, but for two teams to keep a trade on the down low and then spring it on the night is really not going to happen, especially not at the top end of the draft.

Usually someone will let something slip because that trade would then potentially lead to further trades down the track, and clubs would want to have plans in place for what they could manoeuvre in certain situations.

E.g. If we make a trade with Adelaide (let's say it's 2+F2 for 4 + F1 hypothetically), then Adelaide will want to have contingency plans in place whereby they can trade back in with a side that's willing if the right situation unfolded.

For example, let's say Adelaide are enamoured with Thomas Sims, and would be willing to trade our F2 + their own F2 for him if he's there at pick 22. That's something they'd already want to be talking to Sydney about (and other clubs in that zone). Adelaide only have our F2 and can create that hypothetical if they let Sydney know it's likely to happen - and Twomey would catch wind of that. In the scenario that Adelaide want Sims in the early 20s, they're not just exploring that with Sydney, but probably 3-4 other clubs in that range.

This is how Twomey can get so close, particularly at the top end. Clubs all talk to each other, and while they try as best as possible to keep their cards close to their chests, it's still in their best interest to be prepared for many different scenarios and willing to pivot into one if the opportunity arises. Who clubs pick can be difficult to pinpoint, but trades at the top end would be fairly easy to telegraph at this point.
 
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“An alternative has come to light”

… to pick one of the best player in the draft haha. Wow, how did we not see this before!?

who writes this crap

View attachment 2169772
"In breaking news: North are being selfish and taking the best available prospect instead of leaving him for other clubs"
 
The queries on Armstrongs character and sliding down the order is a bit of Déjà vu.

From memory weren’t there concerns on Charlie Curnows character leading into his draft year resulting in him sliding.
 

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The queries on Armstrongs character and sliding down the order is a bit of Déjà vu.

From memory weren’t there concerns on Charlie Curnows character leading into his draft year resulting in him sliding.
And our very own Jack Darling.

As legend has it, the shrewd WCE hierarchy of the day let the wider community know via stealth that ol Jacko was a very bad boy.. before swooping in and picking him up at pick 26..
 
Ralph can rub the skin off it
Sick Vomit GIF by CBS
 
I might look stupid come day's end but Twomey just doesn't get the top handful of picks wrong.

You can take it to the bank that FO'S is ours.
If my memory is correct, and I'd have to search back 250 pages, but I think you had Finn O'Sullivan top of your rankings at one stage, so this seems like a good move, even though I was on the Tauru train.

Would you trade our future first back in? Not so much for pick number, but who would you be content trading a future first for, that is within reason. Armstrong or Jack Whitlock perhaps? They're a couple I would like, but I don't know much.
 
“An alternative has come to light”

… to pick one of the best player in the draft haha. Wow, how did we not see this before!?

who writes this crap

View attachment 2169772
That last hypothetical is pretty idiotic, considering Lalor to Richmond is pretty much locked in.

Interestingly though, you'd have to think that if Richmond try some funny buggers and go FOS with pick #1 to try and force us to trade with them, Saints would be very tempted to throw #7 + #8 our way for Lalor.
 
Draft scenario

Pick 2. Finn O'Sullivan

Option 1: Trade F1 into 12-20 range and address a need: Armstrong, Tauru, J.Whitlock, Shanahan, Berry
OR
Option 2: Trade F2 into 30-45 range and address a need: Trainor, M.Whitlock, O'Farrell, Mraz, Dattoli, Dolan

Trainor, M.Whitlock and Dattoli would be considered sliders if they got into that range. I like O'Farrell and think he could be a good target if we can only get back in between 35-45.

I think the ideal situation would be for us to somehow end up with two picks in the 25-45 range without having to use our F1. If this eventuates we could take O'Sullivan, a tall and a small and look to pick up River as a rookie.
 
“An alternative has come to light”

… to pick one of the best player in the draft haha. Wow, how did we not see this before!?

who writes this crap

View attachment 2169772

I think it's fairly obvious we've tried to trade down and haven't been able to do so satisfactorily. Which is absolutely fine.

Doubt Tauru was ever a genuine consideration at 2.
 
If a trade was likely then Twomey would be running with it as a possibility - the complete opposite is happening through and the words 'very unlikely' are being repeated. It's easier for one team to keep their lips sealed regarding their plans on who they'd like to take, but for two teams to keep a trade on the down low and then spring it on the night is really not going to happen, especially not at the top end of the draft.

Usually someone will let something slip because that trade would then potentially lead to further trades down the track, and clubs would want to have plans in place for what they could manoeuvre in certain situations.

E.g. If we make a trade with Adelaide (let's say it's 2+F2 for 4 + F1 hypothetically), then Adelaide will want to have contingency plans in place whereby they can trade back in with a side that's willing if the right situation unfolded.

For example, let's say Adelaide are enamoured with Thomas Sims, and would be willing to trade our F2 + their own F2 for him if he's there at pick 22. That's something they'd already want to be talking to Sydney about (and other clubs in that zone). Adelaide only have our F2 and can create that hypothetical if they let Sydney know it's likely to happen - and Twomey would catch wind of that. In the scenario that Adelaide want Sims in the early 20s, they're not just exploring that with Sydney, but probably 3-4 other clubs in that range.

This is how Twomey can get so close, particularly at the top end. Clubs all talk to each other, and while they try as best as possible to keep their cards close to their chests, it's still in their best interest to be prepared for many different scenarios and willing to pivot into one if the opportunity arises. Who clubs pick can be difficult to pinpoint, but trades at the top end would be fairly easy to telegraph at this point.

It's not just this.

The plans get relayed to managers, as clubs will be doing final vetting on the players they intend to pick but don't currently have a pick for in that range.

At this point, unless it's something imminent on draft night due to a player being available, I doubt anything changes at the top, because as you said, someone would know by now.
 
From what I understand they've literally just convinced themselves it's gonna happen because they are the closest club to his mum's house. There will be a lot of tears if he stays, and even more if he goes to the Hawks or Pies.
What they fail to appreciate is that there's something closer to Luke's mum Cath than Moorabbin and that's the North Melbourne family. The club wrapped its arms around the Davies-Uniackes the moment Luke was drafted and even more so when Peter's cancer was diagnosed just a few weeks later. The club was there for Cath when Peter passed away and has been ever since. Cath doesn't forget. Any other club hoping to lure LDU away from Arden St is going to have to add a couple extra zeroes to the offer to overcome her disappointment in him if he decided to leave.
 

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Game Day 2024 National Draft Preview Thread Part Deux - Draft Picks: 2 (R1), 62 (R4), 76 (R5), 86 (R6)

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