Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread Part Deux

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giantroo said:
View attachment 2164024
Click to expand...
About to read this...tipping 3 clips in here from Ralphy........without looking.
-Desperate to trade pick 2.
-Richmond want more than pick 2 and F1 for 10+18.
-Clarko and the club have been a mess, has he lost his edge.
-Cash strapped and no one wants to come here
 
LB2Snake said:
About to read this...tipping 3 clips in here from Ralphy........without looking.
-Desperate to trade pick 2.
-Richmond want more than pick 2 and F1 for 10+18.
-Clarko and the club have been a mess, has he lost his edge.
-Cash strapped and no one wants to come here
Click to expand...
After reading I was pretty close to the pin, for those playing at home.

Can't believe I didn't think of LDU leaving, maybe that's a sign :cool:
 
Why the AFL draft needs an overhaul to a two-tier system

Michael Gleeson
Sports columnist
November 13, 2024 — 5.30am

Before they find out their ATAR scores, hundreds of young footballers’ futures will already be decided.

The AFL’s national draft in November will decide the immediate futures of these schoolboys who are barely men.

Barely 18, they will attend, or log in to, a national draft at which dreams will either be realised or dashed, bags packed for cross-country flights or cross-city drives, or, more commonly, thrown against a wall in despair.

If lucky enough to be chosen in the draft, they will enter an AFL industry of acute pressure. The demand to perform is urgent, the analysis of individual sporting performance granular, the intensity of social media attention sudden and unsparing.

Overwhelmingly, the teenagers arriving in the system are not physically, emotionally or mentally ready for the pervasive intensity of the game. Many 18-year-olds struggle with the change from school routines to university or work, let alone a professional football environment.

The mental health problems of footballers are real and now well-known.

AFL chief executive Andrew Dillon wrote in his foreword to the AFL Industry Mental Health and Wellbeing Strategy for 2024-27: “Mental health remains the number one issue of importance for our players”.

And yet kids enter a system, get paid a relatively large amount of money, suddenly find themselves minor celebrities whose work performances are also scrutinised and as an industry, we wonder why they have high levels of mental health problems.
There is a persuasive argument to lift the draft age by at least by a year, but preferably two, to 20.

The standard argument against a rise in the draft age is that it punishes the precocious. Nick Daicos, Will Ashcroft and Harley Reid are rare talents who step straight out of school onto the MCG and perform from day one. Why should they have to wait? One reason is that in all things, these players are the exceptions to the norm.

An option that conceptually appeals to senior AFL people – albeit without a timeframe or agenda for immediate change – is to push the draft age back to 19 or 20 for all bar the first round of players.

So an elite 18-year-old could still be drafted in his first year, but only if his name is called out in the first round. After that, the player returns to state or other leagues where they play and develop for a year or two until they turn 20 and can be taken in any round.

The average AFL player’s career is less than six years. But that is an average; the later you are drafted, the shorter your career.

Statistics provided by the AFL show that players drafted in the first round are on an AFL list for 9.7 years and play 132 games on average. That is about two years and forty games more than players taken in the second round. And the numbers scale down by each round, which is to be expected – the better players are taken earlier and therefore play for longer.

But a two-tier draft, which would allow for 18-year-olds to be immediately drafted in the first round, then only 20-year-olds and older after that, has merit.

Firstly, players would come into the system more emotionally and physically ready for the game in its multi-faceted way.

Those players would have two years of study or work experience, so theoretically at least would be more mature and grounded. Their two years of a university course, apprenticeship or other work experience would be an advantage for the inevitable transition out of football.

Insiders’ guide to player movement: How to fix free agency and the future of father-son bids

The players would play state league football with the hope of being drafted, which would have a twin effect. It would heighten interest in the second-tier competitions as football fans more keenly observe which players might be available to them in the draft. And recruiters would be less likely to have as many misses with players because they have a bigger body of work to assess them from.

The national draft and player exchange industry, which tries to generate hype around the drafting of schoolboy footballers the overwhelming number of fans have never seen or heard of, would have more than confected interest in it. Like the NFL draft, which the AFL has long tried to replicate, the next generation of players would be better-known to the football public, as the college players in their early 20s are in the NFL.

Far from hurting players such as Isaac Smith, Tom Stewart or Brodie Mihocek, a delayed start to their careers arguably made them better players.

The AFL is interested in the idea in principle and keen to consider options to improve the draft system and the mental wellbeing of players, but with the imminent arrival of a Tasmania team that will dilute the draft pool and a CBA still running, no change such as this is imminent.

Capped contracts, draft concessions and pick purchasing: How AFL player movement could change

It would mean a hiatus period only for a year or two until the first tranche of players arrived as first time draftees at 20 in the second and later rounds, then the same flow of players would remain.

Tasmania and the complexities of change shouldn’t be seen as impediments. They should be viewed as welcome opportunities to offer time to hasten slowly. There is time now to properly craft a new and better system that does not pluck unready kids out of their homes, send them across the country to an abnormal world of outsized expectations to perform immediately and then wonder why players don’t succeed at a better rate and why so many struggle with mental health problems.
 
LB2Snake said:
After reading I was pretty close to the pin, for those playing at home.

Can't believe I didn't think of LDU leaving, maybe that's a sign :cool:
Click to expand...
The AFL reporters need news, any news, leading up to next weeks draft, because more so than usual its dead quiet, so this could happen and this is a possible scenario and what if.......
There is certain to be one big news heading after the draft if two scenario's happen, if we keep pick #2 and select a midfielder, journo's will go nuts, it will be like if you give your enemy ammunition to shoot at you!
?????? club select Alix Tauru, Roos fail to get their man as huge talent ends up at ??????. Will Roos roo the day they didn't select their man, the blunder that could haunt the kanga's!:rolleyes:
 
The Talent Scout said:
The AFL reporters need news, any news, leading up to next weeks draft, because more so than usual its dead quiet, so this could happen and this is a possible scenario and what if.......
There is certain to be one big news heading after the draft if two scenario's happen, if we keep pick #2 and select a midfielder, journo's will go nuts, it will be like if you give your enemy ammunition to shoot at you!
?????? club select Alix Tauru, Roos fail to get their man as huge talent ends up at ??????. Will Roos roo the day they didn't select their man, the blunder that could haunt the kanga's!:rolleyes:
Click to expand...
Yeh the perception will be we are in a lose lose situation, realistically we are in a win win. Get an elite talent or fill a need.

If we don't fill the need,

KPB logue, comben*, Dawson, Dawson, corr, pink is a long if not decent list
KPF larkey, darling, comben*, maley, teakle, CCJ (don't sleep on this bloke. Anything can happen, conversely a reminder of what a first round KPP can become 🤔)

Go hard at riccardi or anyone next trade period. We are 1 key forward short really,
Not 10 like the media would have you believe.
 

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LB2Snake said:
After reading I was pretty close to the pin, for those playing at home.

Can't believe I didn't think of LDU leaving, maybe that's a sign :cool:
Click to expand...
To be fair most of that 'article' is just quotes from Viney. Obviously he couldn't help himself from inserting Richmond and their demands into it, but that would be a big ask.
 
Supa_Nova said:
Yeh the perception will be we are in a lose lose situation, realistically we are in a win win. Get an elite talent or fill a need.

If we don't fill the need,

KPB logue, comben*, Dawson, Dawson, corr, pink is a long if not decent list
KPF larkey, darling, comben*, maley, teakle, CCJ (don't sleep on this bloke. Anything can happen, conversely a reminder of what a first round KPP can become 🤔)

Go hard at riccardi or anyone next trade period. We are 1 key forward short really,
Not 10 like the media would have you believe.
Click to expand...
It isn't just talls we need. It's also a quality small forward, speed, back-up mids and two-way runners (and every one of these needs to be able to kick). We aren't as attractive a destination as some clubs for free agents. We need to use the draft to balance the list more than others. Spending a top pick on a gun mid we don't need would be poor list management, spending our F1 this year would be even worse.
 
Twangler said:
From these reports 2 and F1 for 6, 10/11 and one of Tigers later firsts seems pretty realistic.
I’d be happy with that if it’s nets us a mix of three of Tauru, Langford, Armstrong, Shanahan, Berry, Whitlock x2 and Trainor.
Click to expand...

I would take that deal. Puts us in the hitting range we want.

Once we finish 4th next year the deal will look superb 😎
 
There's a fair bit of inside intel in Cal's article this morning with various tidbits put together.

He won't know everything obviously.

But it seems like FOS and Lalor are the two in consideration for us if we keep Pick 2 in his opinion. Tauru in the mix, but the way he described it, you would think he's there as an option for a trade back or F1 trade.

Faull, M.Whitlock, J.Whitlock, Shanahan, Trainor all look like going top 20.

He mentioned Shanahan being a target of those looking back into the first round on draft night. Im wondering if he was alluding to us there.

Hannaford is a chance to get picked with our natural R2 selection by the Dogs we gave them for Caleb Daniel.....
 
Last edited:
giantroo said:
Why the AFL draft needs an overhaul to a two-tier system

Michael Gleeson
Sports columnist
November 13, 2024 — 5.30am

Before they find out their ATAR scores, hundreds of young footballers’ futures will already be decided.

The AFL’s national draft in November will decide the immediate futures of these schoolboys who are barely men.

Barely 18, they will attend, or log in to, a national draft at which dreams will either be realised or dashed, bags packed for cross-country flights or cross-city drives, or, more commonly, thrown against a wall in despair.

If lucky enough to be chosen in the draft, they will enter an AFL industry of acute pressure. The demand to perform is urgent, the analysis of individual sporting performance granular, the intensity of social media attention sudden and unsparing.

Overwhelmingly, the teenagers arriving in the system are not physically, emotionally or mentally ready for the pervasive intensity of the game. Many 18-year-olds struggle with the change from school routines to university or work, let alone a professional football environment.

The mental health problems of footballers are real and now well-known.

AFL chief executive Andrew Dillon wrote in his foreword to the AFL Industry Mental Health and Wellbeing Strategy for 2024-27: “Mental health remains the number one issue of importance for our players”.

And yet kids enter a system, get paid a relatively large amount of money, suddenly find themselves minor celebrities whose work performances are also scrutinised and as an industry, we wonder why they have high levels of mental health problems.
There is a persuasive argument to lift the draft age by at least by a year, but preferably two, to 20.

The standard argument against a rise in the draft age is that it punishes the precocious. Nick Daicos, Will Ashcroft and Harley Reid are rare talents who step straight out of school onto the MCG and perform from day one. Why should they have to wait? One reason is that in all things, these players are the exceptions to the norm.

An option that conceptually appeals to senior AFL people – albeit without a timeframe or agenda for immediate change – is to push the draft age back to 19 or 20 for all bar the first round of players.

So an elite 18-year-old could still be drafted in his first year, but only if his name is called out in the first round. After that, the player returns to state or other leagues where they play and develop for a year or two until they turn 20 and can be taken in any round.

The average AFL player’s career is less than six years. But that is an average; the later you are drafted, the shorter your career.

Statistics provided by the AFL show that players drafted in the first round are on an AFL list for 9.7 years and play 132 games on average. That is about two years and forty games more than players taken in the second round. And the numbers scale down by each round, which is to be expected – the better players are taken earlier and therefore play for longer.

But a two-tier draft, which would allow for 18-year-olds to be immediately drafted in the first round, then only 20-year-olds and older after that, has merit.

Firstly, players would come into the system more emotionally and physically ready for the game in its multi-faceted way.

Those players would have two years of study or work experience, so theoretically at least would be more mature and grounded. Their two years of a university course, apprenticeship or other work experience would be an advantage for the inevitable transition out of football.

Insiders’ guide to player movement: How to fix free agency and the future of father-son bids

The players would play state league football with the hope of being drafted, which would have a twin effect. It would heighten interest in the second-tier competitions as football fans more keenly observe which players might be available to them in the draft. And recruiters would be less likely to have as many misses with players because they have a bigger body of work to assess them from.

The national draft and player exchange industry, which tries to generate hype around the drafting of schoolboy footballers the overwhelming number of fans have never seen or heard of, would have more than confected interest in it. Like the NFL draft, which the AFL has long tried to replicate, the next generation of players would be better-known to the football public, as the college players in their early 20s are in the NFL.

Far from hurting players such as Isaac Smith, Tom Stewart or Brodie Mihocek, a delayed start to their careers arguably made them better players.

The AFL is interested in the idea in principle and keen to consider options to improve the draft system and the mental wellbeing of players, but with the imminent arrival of a Tasmania team that will dilute the draft pool and a CBA still running, no change such as this is imminent.

Capped contracts, draft concessions and pick purchasing: How AFL player movement could change

It would mean a hiatus period only for a year or two until the first tranche of players arrived as first time draftees at 20 in the second and later rounds, then the same flow of players would remain.

Tasmania and the complexities of change shouldn’t be seen as impediments. They should be viewed as welcome opportunities to offer time to hasten slowly. There is time now to properly craft a new and better system that does not pluck unready kids out of their homes, send them across the country to an abnormal world of outsized expectations to perform immediately and then wonder why players don’t succeed at a better rate and why so many struggle with mental health problems.
Click to expand...
This is such a good idea to only allow 18 year olds to be taken in the first round. I'd say they would need to tighten up a few loopholes, like academy and father-son bid matching having to include a first round pick, and tier 2 free-agency compensation to be changed to start of second round rather than end of first round so that the first round doesn't blow out to 25 picks or more. It i also a softer landing for the clubs at the bottom of the ladder in the draft that this begins. A sudden switch to minimum 19 or 20 years old for the entire draft would mean that the first season it came in would be a dud draft class filled with rejects from the previous year (or two). At least if the first round is still 18 year olds, the bottom teams get elite talent.
 
Sphynx said:
He mentioned Shanahan being a target of those looking back into the first round on draft night. Im wondering if he was alluding to us there.
Click to expand...

I think us and Essendon seem most keen to trade back in. Probably both would need a Shanahan.

It is weird that we have been rumoured to want to trade back in consistently but there have been next to no links to players in that range. Probably keeping it quiet on purpose.
 
 
Sphynx said:
There's a fair bit of inside intel in Cal's article this morning with various tidbits put together.

He won't know everything obviously.

But it seems like FOS and Lalor are the two in consideration for us if we keep Pick 2 in his opinion. Tauru in the mix, but the way he described it, you would think he's there as an option for a trade back or F1 trade.

Faull, M.Whitlock, J.Whitlock, Shanahan, Trainor all look like going top 20.

He mentioned Shanahan being a target of those looking back into the first round on draft night. Im wondering if he was alluding to us there.

Hannaford is a chance to get picked with our natural R2 selection by the Dogs we gave them for Caleb Daniel.....
Click to expand...
Hannaford is a chance to get picked with our natural R2 selection by the Dogs we gave them for Caleb Daniel.....

That will be very upsetting.
 

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