Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[blaisee]

Just evaluating his strengths and weaknesses and I think there are too many red flags with his profile.

The biggest issue is that he doesn't use his size to his advantage, which has been well reported around here. Not only is he not a big contested player, he doesn't have the speed or explosiveness to play as an outside first receiver at AFL level. He has time at Under 18's level to receive on the outside and make decisions with the space he gets, but he's not getting the same space and time at AFL level.

Vertical which combined with 20m sprint times forms a good perspective of the explosive potential in a prospect. Smillie's vertical is 73cm and his 20m time is 3.093. His yo-yo score is ok at 720, but there really isn't an athletic point of difference for him. He won't be one of those players that can take it from inside to outside like LDU, he doesn't have the contested ability of a Cripps and I think he's too slow to play as an outside type at AFL level, which is what he's doing best this year at Under 18's level. He's already a solid boy too at 194cm and 95kg, so he's playing at basically his AFL playing weight.

The main traits I see as his strong points are his kicking, his cleanliness below his knees and he spreads well from the contest. The issue with this is if we want these traits in a prospect, I think Jagga Smith's strengths are these exact same things and he's better at them than Smillie. Jagga also has a great endurance base and is quicker than Smillie (2.990 20m) so he can legitimately be an outside receiver at AFL level.

Jagga has probably the best footy IQ in this draft along with Murphy Reid. Basically, if Smillie was 180cm, he wouldn't go top 30, if Jagga was 194cm, he'd go #1.

We're in a pretty awkward spot if Richmond take FOS, which I think they do. Smith is a great prospect, but I don't think he fits our midfield mix.

Thank you for your incredible insights, and sorry for the intrusion,

DO you by any chance have the numbers on FOS athletic testing ?

 

[giantroo]

Thank you for your incredible insights, and sorry for the intrusion,

DO you by any chance have the numbers on FOS athletic testing ?

They were posted a fair while back in this thread long with many others.

Finn O'Sullivan
Vertical: 90cm
20m: 3.046
Agility: 8.117
Yo-yo: 1000

 

[4cunningTonneTruck]

They were posted a fair while back in this thread long with many others.

Finn O'Sullivan
Vertical: 90cm
20m: 3.046
Agility: 8.117
Yo-yo: 1000

Is that Agility good? Elite endurance and vertical but that's a slow 20m right?

 

[Sphynx]

Is that Agility good? Elite endurance and vertical but that's a slow 20m right?

Yes, that agility is very good.

 

[giantroo]

Is that Agility good? Elite endurance and vertical but that's a slow 20m right?

Yes, very good agility.



Finn O'Sullivan
Vertical: 90cm
20m: 3.046
Agility: 8.117
Yo-yo: 1000

Taj Hotton
Vertical: 93cm
20m: 2.882
Agility: 7.807
Yo-yo: 800

H.Langford
Vertical - 72cm
20m - 3.213
Agility - 8.721
Yo-yo - 720

Smillie:
20m - 3.093
Vertical - 73cm
Agility - 8.501
Yo-yo - 720

Jagga Smith
20m - 2.990
Vertical - 75cm
Agility - 8.796
Yo-yo - 840

Compared to

Wardlaw
Vertical: 101cm
20m: 2.95
Agility: 8.33
Yo-yo: 600

Sheezel
Vertical: 77cm
20m: 3.14
Agility: 8.16
Yo-yo: 1040

McKercher:
Vertical: 74cm
20m 3.094
Agility: 8.452
Yo-yo: 960

Zane Duursma
Vertical 91cm
20m 3.036
Agility 8.379
Yo-Yo: 640

 

[archereleven]

There isn't a single team in the AFL that has used as much draft capital as us on their midfield. We need to let them develop, not add another to the rotations unless they are an absolute pure winger we can lock in on the outside.

Hawthorn is soaring up the win column with midfielders picked at 7, 13, 27, 29, 37, 45, and 74 and picks 2, 3, and 62 in the rookie draft.

Geelong is currently in the top 4, running a midfield consisting of picks 8, 9, 18, 20, 23, 25, 26, 28, 58, and pick 54 in the rookie draft with Bowes and O'Connor essentially for free.

Adding another pick 2 to our current midfield picks of 4, 3, 4, 2, 3, 8, 12, 13, 34, 40, and 49. Really?

Trade out, trade down, trade down again, whatever... We need to use this draft to better balance our list with KPPs...

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[shinboner magic]

Yes, very good agility.



Finn O'Sullivan
Vertical: 90cm
20m: 3.046
Agility: 8.117
Yo-yo: 1000

Taj Hotton
Vertical: 93cm
20m: 2.882
Agility: 7.807
Yo-yo: 800

H.Langford
Vertical - 72cm
20m - 3.213
Agility - 8.721
Yo-yo - 720

Smillie:
20m - 3.093
Vertical - 73cm
Agility - 8.501
Yo-yo - 720

Jagga Smith
20m - 2.990
Vertical - 75cm
Agility - 8.796
Yo-yo - 840

Compared to

Wardlaw
Vertical: 101cm
20m: 2.95
Agility: 8.33
Yo-yo: 600

Sheezel
Vertical: 77cm
20m: 3.14
Agility: 8.16
Yo-yo: 1040

McKercher:
Vertical: 74cm
20m 3.094
Agility: 8.452
Yo-yo: 960

Zane Duursma
Vertical 91cm
20m 3.036
Agility 8.379
Yo-Yo: 640

Warlords vertical

 

[shinboner magic]

I wouldn't mind calling Kako out at P2....just want to see if the scum blinks. If they don't, well we get the most creative and dangerous SF in the draft and something we are definitely lacking.

Yeah a downgrade would be beneficial if we are going to do that - get an extra pick

 

[chubbspeterson]

There isn't a single team in the AFL that has used as much draft capital as us on their midfield. We need to let them develop, not add another to the rotations unless they are an absolute pure winger we can lock in on the outside.

Hawthorn is soaring up the win column with midfielders picked at 7, 13, 27, 29, 37, 45, and 74 and picks 2, 3, and 62 in the rookie draft.

Geelong is currently in the top 4, running a midfield consisting of picks 8, 9, 18, 20, 23, 25, 26, 28, 58, and pick 54 in the rookie draft with Bowes and O'Connor essentially for free.

Adding another pick 2 to our current midfield picks of 4, 3, 4, 2, 3, 8, 12, 13, 34, 40, and 49. Really?

Trade out, trade down, trade down again, whatever... We need to use this draft to better balance our list with KPPs...

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

I understand the point you are making but the Hawks also took Denver Grainger Barass at pick 4/5 and now they're looking at trading for Barass. So clearly spending a top 10 pick on a key position has a bit of risk associated with it as well.
If the club decides to trade down and grab a couple out of Trainor/Armstrong/Lalor/Berry/Langford/Hotton then I wouldn't be too disappointed if that's the move, but it may depend what we pick up in trade week as well as to what we do on draft night. I think we could add one key forward this draft at the 2nd rounder (if we don't slide back or move up) at worst and perhaps a small forward (Dattoli, Bradley, Depaoli-Kubank, Alger etc.) or defender (Mraz, Tauru) at the 3rd rounder or possibly we could trade our F2 into this year. There's also the possibility in next year's draft of taking Ludowyke or Duursma bro in the top 8 who might be more that key position anyway, so I wouldn't panic if we only get one kpf.

Given we lost TT you could argue we need a mid/wing/fwd to replace that level of class we lost.
We can win clearances but struggle to convert that into F50 entries and quality one's. That's a class problem.
Can LDU, Wardlaw and Phillips become more damaging by foot with their ball use? Not sure.
I do agree if we take a mid they have to be versatile enough to be able to play elsewhere on the ground.
That might be more FOS (wing), Draper (small fwd?), Smillie (back/fwd), Langford (fwd), Lalor (fwd) or Reid (fwd).

I'm not particularly convinced Simpkin or Phillips become a big part of the midfield group in 2 years time.
The same could possibly be said about Powell, although he's had the better year out of the three of them for sure.

 

[Souup]

what order do you have the tall forwards in?

Bit of a drop between #4 and #5 for me.

1. Jack Whitlock
2. Kayle Gerreyn
3. Harry Armstrong
4. Jobe Shanahan
_______________
5. Thomas Sims

 

[chubbspeterson]

Bit of a drop between #4 and #5 for me.

1. Jack Whitlock
2. Kayle Gerreyn
3. Harry Armstrong
4. Jobe Shanahan
_______________
5. Thomas Sims

Can I ask why you would have Jack Whitlock as no. 1? Scope for improvement or takes the ball at the highest point?

 

[The acurate one]

Ryley Bice = the cycle

 

[Souup]

Taj Hotton @2 Souup ?

You know a 110% more than me. The ACL history worries me ( Perez, George )
Joel Selwood ( yes )

Is the risk worth it ? I'll bow to your knowledge, but........

It's risky for sure but I'm so underwhelmed with a lot of guys at the top end, and I was so big on Taj Hotton pre-injury that despite his injury I still think he's ahead of every other prospect other than FO'S.

Those risk averse will want nothing to do with Hotton and that's totally understandable, but the chance to score a Shai Bolton type talent is too good to pass up for me.

 

[archereleven]

Bit of a drop between #4 and #5 for me.

1. Jack Whitlock
2. Kayle Gerreyn
3. Harry Armstrong
4. Jobe Shanahan
_______________
5. Thomas Sims

Whitlocks contested marking in the Champs game was fantastic.

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[Souup]

Can I ask why you would have Jack Whitlock as no. 1? Scope for improvement or takes the ball at the highest point?

He tests really well athletically which is nice, but then he's definitely a footballer first in my eyes.

Some things that stand out for me:

• He's quick off the mark which means he can get separation on the lead, but then he's very good at identifying when to work back towards goal.
• His yo-yo score of 840 (about 200 above the mean for a key forward) shows he's got a very good endurance base for his height. You see this in games with him regularly presenting up to the wing, but then also being a presence in the forward 50.
• He's near-on 200cm and still has a 93cm vertical, so he's difficult to defend if you're not putting body on him to stop him running at it
• It's hard to find a junior forward who can one-grab marks, but I've seen it enough from Whitlock that I'm confident it'll be a regular part of his game
• His composure with ball in hand is quite rare for a key forward. They often struggle to compose themselves and make good decisions in general play, but he tends to keep a calm and cool head and executes well by foot.

 

[Its a Process]

There isn't a single team in the AFL that has used as much draft capital as us on their midfield. We need to let them develop, not add another to the rotations unless they are an absolute pure winger we can lock in on the outside.

Hawthorn is soaring up the win column with midfielders picked at 7, 13, 27, 29, 37, 45, and 74 and picks 2, 3, and 62 in the rookie draft.

Geelong is currently in the top 4, running a midfield consisting of picks 8, 9, 18, 20, 23, 25, 26, 28, 58, and pick 54 in the rookie draft with Bowes and O'Connor essentially for free.

Adding another pick 2 to our current midfield picks of 4, 3, 4, 2, 3, 8, 12, 13, 34, 40, and 49. Really?

Trade out, trade down, trade down again, whatever... We need to use this draft to better balance our list with KPPs...

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

Melbourne’s midfield that won a flag was a different story.

 

[perplexed]

There isn't a single team in the AFL that has used as much draft capital as us on their midfield. We need to let them develop, not add another to the rotations unless they are an absolute pure winger we can lock in on the outside.

Hawthorn is soaring up the win column with midfielders picked at 7, 13, 27, 29, 37, 45, and 74 and picks 2, 3, and 62 in the rookie draft.

Geelong is currently in the top 4, running a midfield consisting of picks 8, 9, 18, 20, 23, 25, 26, 28, 58, and pick 54 in the rookie draft with Bowes and O'Connor essentially for free.

Adding another pick 2 to our current midfield picks of 4, 3, 4, 2, 3, 8, 12, 13, 34, 40, and 49. Really?

Trade out, trade down, trade down again, whatever... We need to use this draft to better balance our list with KPPs...

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

Also small forwards, this is our biggest hole of all. We need three more (which would raise us to four total on our list). We have invested nothing in them. Recent Premiers have all played several and this year they are dominating. GWS are playing 4, Hawthorn 4, Geelong 3, us none (except recently RHJ - who has a very long way to go).

 

[4cunningTonneTruck]

He tests really well athletically which is nice, but then he's definitely a footballer first in my eyes.

Some things that stand out for me:

• He's quick off the mark which means he can get separation on the lead, but then he's very good at identifying when to work back towards goal.
• His yo-yo score of 840 (about 200 above the mean for a key forward) shows he's got a very good endurance base for his height. You see this in games with him regularly presenting up to the wing, but then also being a presence in the forward 50.
• He's near-on 200cm and still has a 93cm vertical, so he's difficult to defend if you're not putting body on him to stop him running at it
• It's hard to find a junior forward who can one-grab marks, but I've seen it enough from Whitlock that I'm confident it'll be a regular part of his game
• His composure with ball in hand is quite rare for a key forward. They often struggle to compose themselves and make good decisions in general play, but he tends to keep a calm and cool head and executes well by foot.

What are your knocks on Harry Armstrong as he seems to have flown up a lot of draft boards?

 

[Souup]

What are your knocks on Harry Armstrong as he seems to have flown up a lot of draft boards?

No real knocks to be honest, Harry Armstrong is certainly deserving of his rise of late.

I have Whitlock over him for a few reasons:

• Quicker and better vertical
• Taller (195cm vs 200cm)
• Armstrong tends to do his best work inside 50m as a FF, whereas Whitlock can play as a CHF or FF

 

[archereleven]

Melbourne’s midfield that won a flag was a different story.

How so?

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I see what you're saying.
Yep, and we've gone above and beyond whatever draft capital they used to put together that premiership midfield...

 

[archereleven]

Also small forwards, this is our biggest hole of all. We need three more (which would raise us to four total on our list). We have invested nothing in them. Recent Premiers have all played several and this year they are dominating. GWS are playing 4, Hawthorn 4, Geelong 3, us none (except recently RHJ - who has a very long way to go).

Agreed, but they are much easier to come by compared to kpp, which imo we need developing asap




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[perplexed]

Agreed, but they are much easier to come by compared to kpp, which imo we need developing asap




On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

I agree that that are easier to come by. But somehow we haven't bothered getting any.

 

[4cunningTonneTruck]

No real knocks to be honest, Harry Armstrong is certainly deserving of his rise of late.

I have Whitlock over him for a few reasons:

• Quicker and better vertical
• Taller (195cm vs 200cm)
• Armstrong tends to do his best work inside 50m as a FF, whereas Whitlock can play as a CHF or FF

Thanks. Regarding Taj, how do you rate his kicking. Definitely athletic but watching his footage he seems to have poor kicking. Either decision making or just loopy kicks that give defenders time to spoil. Doesn't look to have a bullet pass or penetration. Am I wrong?

 

[archereleven]

I agree that that are easier to come by. But somehow we haven't bothered getting any.

It's like Rawling didn't tune in to the Richmond trilogy and all the other teams rolling with 6 of them...



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[chubbspeterson]

He tests really well athletically which is nice, but then he's definitely a footballer first in my eyes.

Some things that stand out for me:

• He's quick off the mark which means he can get separation on the lead, but then he's very good at identifying when to work back towards goal.
• His yo-yo score of 840 (about 200 above the mean for a key forward) shows he's got a very good endurance base for his height. You see this in games with him regularly presenting up to the wing, but then also being a presence in the forward 50.
• He's near-on 200cm and still has a 93cm vertical, so he's difficult to defend if you're not putting body on him to stop him running at it
• It's hard to find a junior forward who can one-grab marks, but I've seen it enough from Whitlock that I'm confident it'll be a regular part of his game
• His composure with ball in hand is quite rare for a key forward. They often struggle to compose themselves and make good decisions in general play, but he tends to keep a calm and cool head and executes well by foot.

Thanks. Would love any of the five you listed. Jack certainly had a great second half in the champs game.