Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[Better Loosen Up]

Twomey on radio this morning alluded to the challenge we might have in splitting pick 1 given. Think offers will be there, but they wont reflect the value of pick 1 in past years which will more than likely see us take it to the draft.

Twomey doesn't seem to have thought this through. Gold Coast have picks 8 and 10 with Lombard set to go before both of those picks but not ahead of ours. They would be mad not to trade and in fact, they should be the ones approaching us!

 

[JGreezy]

Twomey on radio this morning alluded to the challenge we might have in splitting pick 1 given. Think offers will be there, but they wont reflect the value of pick 1 in past years which will more than likely see us take it to the draft.

I get that as a general principle that the value between pick 1 and 10 is less. But the actual reality is that assessment of prospects varies between clubs. It only takes one club, sitting outside the top 5, who falls in love with a top prospect and is willing to chase them.

 

[Twangler]

Twomey doesn't seem to have thought this through. Gold Coast have picks 8 and 10 with Lombard set to go before both of those picks but not ahead of ours. They would be mad not to trade and in fact, they should be the ones approaching us!

Us Richmond WC or St Kilda as he’s probably not in top three calculations for a bid

 

[marklovesbeer]

Twomey on radio this morning alluded to the challenge we might have in splitting pick 1 given. Think offers will be there, but they wont reflect the value of pick 1 in past years which will more than likely see us take it to the draft.

Are they talking as if us having pick one is a forgone conclusion or what?
We will win at least two more games this year (Rich & WC). We’re not finishing last in my opinion.

 

[chubbspeterson]

Are they talking as if us having pick one is a forgone conclusion or what?
We will win at least two more games this year (Rich & WC). We’re not finishing last in my opinion.

The GC/WCE/Tigers games are the most winnable. If we beat GC we won't finish last.
We'll be a chance against Cats/Hawks/Dogs but think we'll be overpowered by Swans and Blues on the run home.

 

[noobermensch]

Twomey doesn't seem to have thought this through. Gold Coast have picks 8 and 10 with Lombard set to go before both of those picks but not ahead of ours. They would be mad not to trade and in fact, they should be the ones approaching us!

I haven't heard the radio bit, but I imagine Cal is likely aware that GC have another top 5 kid coming through next year in Zeke Uwland, and possibly more besides. When they had the Jed Walter/Ethan Read crop they setup a year in advance by trading resources into the future, something I think its likely they try to do with one of picks 8 or 10.

 

[The Filth Wizard]

Twomey doesn't seem to have thought this through. Gold Coast have picks 8 and 10 with Lombard set to go before both of those picks but not ahead of ours. They would be mad not to trade and in fact, they should be the ones approaching us!

The Suns received 10, 14 and a future first rounder for pick 4 (eventually 6) last year, 8 and 10 for 1 would be a robbery, especially as we'd be a chance not to pick in the top 10.

 

[Souup]

Read some posts RE: Kako testing data.

He tested during the 2023 pre-season as well as this year, so I'll include both.

2023 Preseason testing results:

Vertical: 82cm
20m: 2.996
Agility: 7.949
Yo-yo: 760

2024 Preseason testing results:
Vertical: 85cm
20m: 3.009
Agility: 8.384
Yo-yo: 680

 

[Harris 10]

Read some posts RE: Kako testing data.

He tested during the 2023 pre-season as well as this year, so I'll include both.

2023 Preseason testing results:

Vertical: 82cm
20m: 2.996
Agility: 7.949
Yo-yo: 760

2024 Preseason testing results:
Vertical: 85cm
20m: 3.009
Agility: 8.384
Yo-yo: 680

Am i reading this right?
He got slower and lost some agility, but improved his tank and can jump higher.

 

[Souup]

Am i reading this right?
He got slower and lost some agility, but improved his tank and can jump higher.

From 2023 to 2024:
Vertical +3cm
20m -0.13
Agility -.435
Yoyo -80

He basically improved his vertical and went backwards in the other tests. The 20m result is negligible though. I have to say I'm not so worried about him going backwards as I am impressed that he's capable of a sub 8 second agility. Those other tests will be improved upon in an AFL environment.

Also worth noting that there can be variations in data from pre-season testing and the best and most accurate data will obviously come from the combine at the end of the year where all players test on the same day, in the same conditions, with the same people conducting those tests using the same equipment.

 

[the big lebowski]

From 2023 to 2024:
Vertical +3cm
20m -0.13
Agility -.435
Yoyo -80

He basically improved his vertical and went backwards in the other tests. The 20m result is negligible though. I have to say I'm not so worried about him going backwards as I am impressed that he's capable of a sub 8 second agility. Those other tests will be improved upon in an AFL environment.

Also worth noting that there can be variations in data from pre-season testing and the best and most accurate data will obviously come from the combine at the end of the year where all players test on the same day, in the same conditions, with the same people conducting those tests using the same equipment.

I did the 20m at the stingrays once and they used the very scientific method of getting 6 dads to use a stop watch to time a player each from a group of 6. I got a sub 3 seconds for the first time in my life. Every other test I ever did was well over the 3 seconds

 

[shinboner magic]

Why is Kako rated outside the top 10?

Is it just a positional value thing? Or hard to draft a guy who doesn't get 30 possessions?

Because he hasn’t shaved his sideburns

 

[R00StaR]

Watched some more of Smillie

Whilst he’s not the ideal pick for us, or even an appropriate pick, he does look good. I can see the Bont comparison in that he is a smoooooth mover through traffic. Has some toe. Kicking is very good but absolutely shanks the odd one.

Knows how to hit the scoreboard.

If he’s on the hairs at our pick, a club will pay a lot to get him.

What i find a little odd about the knock on Smillie not playing like a big bodied mid is that id be more inclined to view that as a positive. He's already good without using one of his major weapons to its full ability yet. Which you'd think is far easier to add than the rest of it.

 

[the big lebowski]

What i find a little odd about the knock on Smillie not playing like a big bodied mid is that id be more inclined to view that as a positive. He's already good without using one of his major weapons to its full ability yet. Which you'd think is far easier to add than the rest of it.

Tend to agree. Same with his marking.

 

[Hojuman]

Why do l get the feeling that if we don't take Smillie he'll be the next Cripps / Bont / Pendlebury clone and we'll be left with Tom Scully

21

Tom Scully

Age

33

Ht

181cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.7

5star

K

9.9

4star

HB

10.8

5star

M

3.8

4star

T

3.5

5star

CL

2.3

4star

D

12.6

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

5.1

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.1

2star

CL

0.8

3star

D

19.8

5star

K

8.8

4star

HB

11.0

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

4.6

5star

CL

3.8

5star

/ Paddy Dow

15

Paddy Dow

Age

24

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

7.1

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.4

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

..........☹

 

[R00StaR]

From 2023 to 2024:
Vertical +3cm
20m -0.13
Agility -.435
Yoyo -80

He basically improved his vertical and went backwards in the other tests. The 20m result is negligible though. I have to say I'm not so worried about him going backwards as I am impressed that he's capable of a sub 8 second agility. Those other tests will be improved upon in an AFL environment.

Also worth noting that there can be variations in data from pre-season testing and the best and most accurate data will obviously come from the combine at the end of the year where all players test on the same day, in the same conditions, with the same people conducting those tests using the same equipment.

You dont have Smillie and Bont numbers by any chance?

Just reading more on Bontempelli in his draft year (6 months younger than Smillie)

"The 192cm prospect had a quiet NAB AFL Under-18 Championships for Vic Metro, but did finish off well against Vic Country in the final game, gathering 21 disposals and nine handball receives. That shows how Bontempelli plays: he links things up."


WEAKNESSES
"Given his height and size, Bontempelli will most likely end up an inside midfielder, which means there is still improvements to be made in his contested ball winning. When he does come to terms with his build, he will look to be more powerful with it, and could work on his burst speed."

DRAFT RANGE
A first-round selection. A harder one to read because some clubs have him as a very early pick and others see him closer to No.15.

 

[The Talent Scout]

Do others think we should be aiming for pick 1 at this point in the season? My preference would be that we have pick 2 or 3, as our list already has a lot of talented youngsters and imo it's more important that we start nourishing them with wins. We need positive reinforcement for increased effort.

We are aiming for wins, the players can feel they are on the cusp of something special. You are right that its more important to get in that winning mentality but on the flip side always remember you can never have enough talent, as for what pick, 1/2/3/4/ its going to be one of that lot, so it wont matter that much, unless we finish 15th / 16th.

 

[fusion]

Twomey on radio this morning alluded to the challenge we might have in splitting pick 1 given. Think offers will be there, but they wont reflect the value of pick 1 in past years which will more than likely see us take it to the draft.

We aren't getting pick 1. Richmond will tank against us, and we'll move above them. I can't see them making the same "mistake" we did in winning our last game in 2023.

I think one scenario is we win a few games, finish 3rd last and take Trainor.

 

[R00StaR]

We are aiming for wins, the players can feel they are on the cusp of something special. You are right that its more important to get in that winning mentality but on the flip side always remember you can never have enough talent, as for what pick, 1/2/3/4/ its going to be one of that lot, so it wont matter that much.

Hard to see us not getting pick 1 or 2 unless we hit a massive purple patch. WC are 2 games and 6.3% ahead of us. And we're zero chance for pick 4.

 

[Souup]

You dont have Smillie and Bont numbers by any chance?

Just reading more on Bontempelli in his draft year (6 months younger than Smillie)

"The 192cm prospect had a quiet NAB AFL Under-18 Championships for Vic Metro, but did finish off well against Vic Country in the final game, gathering 21 disposals and nine handball receives. That shows how Bontempelli plays: he links things up."


WEAKNESSES
"Given his height and size, Bontempelli will most likely end up an inside midfielder, which means there is still improvements to be made in his contested ball winning. When he does come to terms with his build, he will look to be more powerful with it, and could work on his burst speed."

DRAFT RANGE
A first-round selection. A harder one to read because some clubs have him as a very early pick and others see him closer to No.15.

No Bont numbers but regarding Smilie:

2023 Preseason testing:
Vertical: 75cm
20m: 3.077
Agility: 8.494
Yo-yo: 800

2024 Preseason testing:
Vertical: 73cm
20m: 3.093
Agility: 8.501
Yo-yo: 720

 

[apollo_creed]

Are they talking as if us having pick one is a forgone conclusion or what?
We will win at least two more games this year (Rich & WC). We’re not finishing last in my opinion.

Richmond have injuries (assume players coming back) and an easier draw than ours.

 

[JGreezy]

I've got a question for the people who are watching these players a fair bit...

If you were coaching one of the teams in tonight's game (huge crowd, finals atmosphere) but you had to pick one of these players to play (regular rotation amount, not hiding them) who would be your first choice to step in and perform?

Follow up, same question but if you could add 5 years of physical maturing, but not skill or experience development.

 

[chubbspeterson]

Hard to see us not getting pick 1 or 2 unless we hit a massive purple patch. WC are 2 games and 6.3% ahead of us. And we're zero chance for pick 4.

Most likely we lose to Swans/Blues/Cats. We're a chance to win 2-3 out of GC/WCE/Tigers/Hawks/Dogs.
WCE should lose to Demons, Freo, Lions, Blues, Cats. Chance against Saints (Marvel), GC (WA), NM.
Tigers should lose to Freo, GWS, Port, Pies, Hawks. Chance against NM, Saints and Rd 24 GC at G.

The WCE and Tigers games against NM, GC and Saints will decide ladder position. Tigers I think will be last.
WCE could beat Demons or Freo in an one out of the box game.

 

[giantroo]

 

[Topparoo]

River Stevens rotated? What does that mean exactly?