Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[wormy]

Yeah I wouldn’t do it if I were a tigers fan either. But I would be tempted by 2 and F1 for 6, 10 and one of the later first rounders. Tigers need multiple years to attack the draft and our F1 would be perfect for you (albeit agreed that this is a deep draft this year so I’d try to keep at least 4-5 first rounders)

You're right, I'm tempted. Realistically Richmond could see something in that.

Tigers take 2 top mids at 1 and 2, then another sliding mid at 11.

Then Richmond take a couple of talls towards the end of first round and head to next year with 2 first rounders.

I think North would be happy with that as well if you thought you could move up the ladder a bit in 2025.

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[Chip Scab1]

View attachment 2146186

 

[wormy]

Oh wormy, the bubble hasn't been popped and its not going to be, the well established draft of all time is true but what a lot of people are forgetting are a few important details.
1/ The top six midfielders in this draft are in different ways elite, after that you have a very very strong and even draft.

2/ Like St Kilda and Melbourne who both need an elite midfielder, they are there if you have the picks, if you have the courage and if you back in your knowledge that quality trumps over quantity most times.

3/ List managers and recruiters have sometimes a vastly different opinion on players that supporters do and sometimes do things that supporters would laugh at if someone told them that a certain scenario might happen. One classic example is West Coast, not one supporter thought their club would do what they did and look what happened? A lot of supporters have been saying {like the media} the same old thing about this draft without checking the facts and telling the rest of the story.

4/ A classic example is Carlton, even though every second person is sprouting an even draft Carlton moved at warp speed to get that pick 3, now why do you think they did that? Answer, to get that elite midfielder of their choice. A little tip, Carlton won't be the only one to do this and get that star midfielder

True, anything could happen for sure. I just think 6 and 11 for 2 is unrealistic from a Richmond perspective.

To be fair I think teams like Carlton who are might contend might be more likely to target and move up for a specific player. Whereas Richmond is in a different spot considering we won twice in 2024 and then proceeded to trade half our team lol. We'd be slightly more inclined to go for a quantity approach, as evidenced by how many picks we've gone to acquire.

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[The Nostradamus]

Even though I truly think we split pick 2 but wouldn’t it be a so good & a kick in the balls for Carltank if we just pick FOS on draft night with pick 2 ?!
I can just see them on draft nite scrambling for like Wtf ? Who do we go for now ?!!

The good news is I think FOS goes top 2 no matter which clubs have the first 2 picks

 

[King Hansen]

Came to suss what Kangas fans were saying about splitting your pick...

I hate to pop the bubble, but there's absolutely no chance Richmond would trade out pick 10 or 11 to move up 4 spots from 6 to 2, in what has been well established as one of the most even drafts of all time.

That trade would be a significantly worse outcome for the Tigers as opposed to just taking our picks 1, 6, 10 and 11 to the draft. Effectively, it would mean giving up a top 10 pick to rise 4 spots.

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It's not really about the pick. It's about the player now.

 

[Wild Bill]

Came to suss what Kangas fans were saying about splitting your pick...

I hate to pop the bubble, but there's absolutely no chance Richmond would trade out pick 10 or 11 to move up 4 spots from 6 to 2, in what has been well established as one of the most even drafts of all time.

That trade would be a significantly worse outcome for the Tigers as opposed to just taking our picks 1, 6, 10 and 11 to the draft. Effectively, it would mean giving up a top 10 pick to rise 4 spots.

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Check out the last 10 number 2 and number 6 picks.

I hope we stay with 2.

 

[Shermanator]

Came to suss what Kangas fans were saying about splitting your pick...

I hate to pop the bubble, but there's absolutely no chance Richmond would trade out pick 10 or 11 to move up 4 spots from 6 to 2, in what has been well established as one of the most even drafts of all time.

That trade would be a significantly worse outcome for the Tigers as opposed to just taking our picks 1, 6, 10 and 11 to the draft. Effectively, it would mean giving up a top 10 pick to rise 4 spots.

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[speedy]

Came to suss what Kangas fans were saying about splitting your pick...

I hate to pop the bubble, but there's absolutely no chance Richmond would trade out pick 10 or 11 to move up 4 spots from 6 to 2, in what has been well established as one of the most even drafts of all time.

That trade would be a significantly worse outcome for the Tigers as opposed to just taking our picks 1, 6, 10 and 11 to the draft. Effectively, it would mean giving up a top 10 pick to rise 4 spots.

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You talk a lot of sense, too much sense for this board. But you haven’t factored in our secret weapon… B.O.B.

 

[The Talent Scout]

They don’t usually send the brightest in the first wave of attack - thanks for being the sacrificial lamb

wormy likes this!

 

[4cunningTonneTruck]

True, anything could happen for sure. I just think 6 and 11 for 2 is unrealistic from a Richmond perspective.

To be fair I think teams like Carlton who are might contend might be more likely to target and move up for a specific player. Whereas Richmond is in a different spot considering we won twice in 2024 and then proceeded to trade half our team lol. We'd be slightly more inclined to go for a quantity approach, as evidenced by how many picks we've gone to acquire.

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The team moving up always pays a premium. How much can depend but usually to move into the top 5 of any draft it's usually a big premium. 6+11 is only a surplus of about pick 33 points wise. 6+18 is a negligible surplus of pick 55 points wise. While it's an even draft, the recruiters will all know who other teams want. It sounds like there is a top 3 tier forming of Lalor, FOS and Smith (maybe 4 with Draper added in). Tigers have gone all in on this draft and nailing the picks will either set your rebuild up for success or many years of pain. The median games played for a player selected at pick 2 is 213 games. The median games played for a player picked at 6 is around 125. That's a huge difference. North are in a position where we have selected many players in the top 3 so we can afford to drop down. Tigers only have 1 pick in the top 3 this year. It statistically becomes far more speculative after pick 3.

 

[Kangas_11]

Richmond fans on here have been absolutely drinking their own bathwater after being kissed on the d*** by Freo, GC and WCE in the trade period.

The key difference is that draft picks don't elect a club and force a trade with a particular team.

While 6 + 10/11/18 looks like the most appropriate trade, there is no restriction on us figuring something out with the Saints or Dee's.

The Saints in particular would probably be keen to get either FOS or Lalor as a point of difference in their midfield. 7 + F1 (+ 32 or F2) for 2 is definitely a possibility if the Tigers decide to be stubborn.

Still gets us Tauru or Armstrong, and banks more capital for next year.

 

[DuckYeah]

Came to suss what Kangas fans were saying about splitting your pick...

I hate to pop the bubble, but there's absolutely no chance Richmond would trade out pick 10 or 11 to move up 4 spots from 6 to 2, in what has been well established as one of the most even drafts of all time.

That trade would be a significantly worse outcome for the Tigers as opposed to just taking our picks 1, 6, 10 and 11 to the draft. Effectively, it would mean giving up a top 10 pick to rise 4 spots.

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Like ive said multiple times, it all depends if Richmond like Smith and one of Lalor/FOS/Langford, if they do want two players, 2 x mids working together from the same draft can have positive impacts in the future, especially if times get tough at the tiges. If the tin rattlers (save our skin) are happy with their hand and unwilling to move on pick 11 then i’ll be happy to take pick 2 to the bank and you can drool over Lalor and co dominating for the opposition. Lets face it, there are a clear top 3 or 4 in the draft, the rest could go either way.

 

[DuckYeah]

No need for the tigers to move up when they can take 2 top mids within 7 with another 2 top 11 picks to play with.

It seems like moreso North needs to split 2 rather than Richmond wants to move up. Tigers are already in a good spot.

But, for say 6 and 18 you guys could realistically get Tauru/Armstrong and and Shanahan/Faul/Whitlock, it seems to me that would be a much more favourable outcome for North than taking say FOS alone at 2.

Don't get me wrong 2 would be good, but giving 6 and 11 for 2 would be big overs to pay.


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Lol jog on son.

If you have pick 1 you want two x top 10’s

Pick 2 one pick inside the 10 and one just outside.

Maybe you can entice Carltank with pick 6 and 18 for pick 3. See how ya go. Thats almost a fair market for pick 3.

 

[DuckYeah]

Oh wormy, the bubble hasn't been popped and its not going to be, the well established draft of all time is true but what a lot of people are forgetting are a few important details.
1/ The top six midfielders in this draft are in different ways elite, after that you have a very very strong and even draft.

2/ Like St Kilda and Melbourne who both need an elite midfielder, they are there if you have the picks, if you have the courage and if you back in your knowledge that quality trumps over quantity most times.

3/ List managers and recruiters have sometimes a vastly different opinion on players that supporters do and sometimes do things that supporters would laugh at if someone told them that a certain scenario might happen. One classic example is West Coast, not one supporter thought their club would do what they did and look what happened? A lot of supporters have been saying {like the media} the same old thing about this draft without checking the facts and telling the rest of the story.

4/ A classic example is Carlton, even though every second person is sprouting an even draft Carlton moved at warp speed to get that pick 3, now why do you think they did that? Answer, to get that elite midfielder of their choice. A little tip, Carlton won't be the only one to do this and get that star midfielder

Absolutely and if I was rebuilding a list I would be taking (if the opportunity presented itself) to take 2 x mids with 1 and 2 with different skillsets that compliment one another. That is mouth watering trade pick 6/11 in a heart beat.

Imagine if they turned Rioli and some other muppet not worth a first round pick into 1 x potential multiple AA midfielder. You’d be stoked

 

[Sphynx]

Richmond fans on here have been absolutely drinking their own bathwater after being kissed on the d*** by Freo, GC and WCE in the trade period.

The key difference is that draft picks don't elect a club and force a trade with a particular team.

While 6 + 10/11/18 looks like the most appropriate trade, there is no restriction on us figuring something out with the Saints or Dee's.

The Saints in particular would probably be keen to get either FOS or Lalor as a point of difference in their midfield. 7 + F1 (+ 32 or F2) for 2 is definitely a possibility if the Tigers decide to be stubborn.

Still gets us Tauru or Armstrong, and banks more capital for next year.

The other consideration is Melbourne.

They now have pick 5 and like Tauru themselves.

 

[giantroo]

 

[Souup]

Check out the last 10 number 2 and number 6 picks.

I hope we stay with 2.

I genuinely mean no offense but this is an extremely lazy and overall horrible argument that removes context and nuance from the discussion.

 

[Smoocher]

Came to suss what Kangas fans were saying about splitting your pick...

I hate to pop the bubble, but there's absolutely no chance Richmond would trade out pick 10 or 11 to move up 4 spots from 6 to 2, in what has been well established as one of the most even drafts of all time.

That trade would be a significantly worse outcome for the Tigers as opposed to just taking our picks 1, 6, 10 and 11 to the draft. Effectively, it would mean giving up a top 10 pick to rise 4 spots.

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Then good luck rebuilding with one quality mid. Any mid outside of top 5 will be an average mid. Picks 10 and 11 will be good average mids with no standouts.

This is a deep draft of good quality talks which doesn't equate to elite mids the deeper you go.

Nothing surer than RFC moving heaven and earth to get pick 2 and getting two of Lalor/Smith/Fos.

Bookmark it.

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[DuckYeah]

Then good luck rebuilding with one quality mid. Any mid outside of top 5 will be an average mid. Picks 10 and 11 will be good average mids with no standouts.

This is a deep draft of good quality talks which doesn't equate to elite mids the deeper you go.

Nothing surer than RFC moving heaven and earth to get pick 2 and getting two of Lalor/Smith/Fos.

Bookmark it.

Sent from my SM-A156E using Tapatalk

Thats what I reckon too. They’ll play hardball and probably wont happen until we sit down about to use pick 2 under the clock

 

[Wild Bill]

I genuinely mean no offense but this is an extremely lazy and overall horrible argument that removes context and nuance from the discussion.

I don't take offence when discussing facts.

 

[Sphynx]

It's a pretty lazy article.

North have to eat shit and everyone else gets a king ransom when moving down basically. Even for picks in the teens.

His key paragraph, which he didn't expand on and relate back to his one below regarding us

Rival clubs spoken to foxfooty.com.au on Thursday believe the Tigers are strongly considering three players at Pick 1: Powerful GWV Rebels forward-midfielder Sam Lalor, star Oakleigh Chargers midfielder Finn O’Sullivan and Oakleigh Chargers ball magnet Jagga Smith. Big-bodied Dandenong Stingrays Harvey Langford is an outside chance, too.

The big pick haul gives Richmond ample options and flexibility heading into the national draft to select strategically. For instance, they could take a pure midfielder like O’Sullivan or Smith at Pick 1 then acquire a gun key-position player at their next selection, which is currently Pick 6.

TOP-10 SHUFFLING

Richmond would be the best-placed club to deal with North Melbourne, which is open to offers for Pick 2 in a slide down the order.

North list boss Brady Rawlings on Wednesday night said the Roos would look at all the options to get back into this year’s draft, considering their next selection after Pick 2 is now Pick 62, thanks to the club sending Picks 25 and 44 to the Bulldogs and Swans respectively on deadline day.

At the draft combine earlier this month, rival clubs sensed the Kangaroos’ attachment to exciting Gippsland Power utility Alix Tauru, who’s soared into top-10 calculations over recent months and has all 18 clubs excited following a strong finish to his Coates Talent League campaign.

It’d be a bold, aggressive call by the Kangaroos to take Tauru that early in such a stacked draft pool when many of his peers have a stronger and more sustained body of work

Hence the widely-held view the Roos would be prepared to slide down the order … just not too far.

The alternative for North would be to take a top midfielder with Pick 2 then use their future first-rounder to get back into the top of the draft to take Tauru. But that might be tougher to pull off than splitting the No. 2 selection with 2024 picks.

Melbourne (Picks 5 and 9) and St Kilda (Picks 7, 8 and 32) would be well positioned to tempt the Roos if they explored a trade. But the Tigers — who are clearly all-in on the draft — are the best and most likely option for North considering the former’s bonkers arsenal. Richmond’s Picks 6 and 23 have a similar value to Pick 2, according to the draft value index.

So they have 4 players at the top of their board. Then factoring Draper as a lock to the Crows if there.. I can't see anyone else realistically being picked ahead of them either.

This the key point isnt it? It's why it's not a trade just for draft parity, he's insinuating we almost need to move down. Which is crap. We are the one club that can really afford the punt and payoff on Lalor or FOS.

Richmond will not get two of those 4 from their current position. Melbourne like the leftover of Smith or Langford at #5, they also like Tauru, but would probably prefer him at 9, I've heard that more than a few times.


So if they want two of those 4, particularly the first two, they have to pay some form of overs to achieve it. Especially in the top 5 of draft. This has been the case for all of draft history, it gets more costly the higher you go. It's true that group is even, but that only applies to the first 5 (I'd actually debate it's the first 4), so is irrelevant really.

Otherwise they pick a KPP at #6 and walk away on draft night with Sam Lalor as virtually the only top midfield prospect through the door with 8 top 24 picks.

They might jag Smillie it 10,11 - More likely he ends up at the Saints.

Then they are pretty much left with a pool of M.Reid, Hotton, Allan, Hynes, Gross, Moraes.

Unless they intend to turn Travaglia, Lindsay, Berry into mids.

Maybe they are happy with that, but it would be peculiar, to have one of the strongest draft hands ever by points and the center piece is a midfielder with question marks on him as a full time mid at AFL level. The other mids listed there are decent prospects, but you can pick up similar types in any draft and you want absolute top quality mids for any contending side.

 

[Kangas_11]

"Richmond’s Picks 6 and 23 have a similar value to Pick 2, according to the draft value index."

Ah cool, the draft value index which has been widely deemed as completely out of whack and will be replaced next season because it's so broken says we should give up pick 2 for 6 + 23.

That will really help us match a bid on... Oh wait, it's completely irrelevant in this scenario.

 

[Ura]

There are a lot of questions and examples of why trades have happened in the past to split. Last year bombers gave up a second rounder to move 1 spot up for Caddy as a most recent.
Only things I’ll say of the potential for a trade this trade period between North and Tigers is it makes sense for both clubs to an extent. Top mids seem to be top 5 picks (FOS, Lalor, Draper, Smith and Langford) they won’t get to pick 6 current thinking. Better for tigers with their hand to try to get one.
North apparently love FOS but really love Tauru. I think biggest chance in top 10 of a side reaching for Tauru are the Saints. I think this is why Brady has said would only trade back a couple of spots.
North will want another pick in this draft and Tigers unlikely to take 8 players in this draft will want to smooth over into next year aswell.
Not sure where the trade finishes but if it happens will be 6+ at best 11 at worst 20 I’m guessing

 

[Psicosis]

I'm not keen on trading 2 unless we get value for it. Despite backing ourselves into a corner by trading pick 25, it isn't a reason to accept unders for 2 IMO.

There should really be only three options:

Trade Pick 2 for 6 & one of the 10/11 picks.

Trade F1 for 6 or one of the 10/11 picks.

Take the best player on the board at Pick 2.

...

Unfortunately we aren't a club that thrives when backed into a corner, so my expectations are low.

 

[Sphynx]

There are a lot of questions and examples of why trades have happened in the past to split. Last year bombers gave up a second rounder to move 1 spot up for Caddy as a most recent.
Only things I’ll say of the potential for a trade this trade period between North and Tigers is it makes sense for both clubs to an extent. Top mids seem to be top 5 picks (FOS, Lalor, Draper, Smith and Langford) they won’t get to pick 6 current thinking. Better for tigers with their hand to try to get one.
North apparently love FOS but really love Tauru. I think biggest chance in top 10 of a side reaching for Tauru are the Saints. I think this is why Brady has said would only trade back a couple of spots.
North will want another pick in this draft and Tigers unlikely to take 8 players in this draft will want to smooth over into next year aswell.
Not sure where the trade finishes but if it happens will be 6+ at best 11 at worst 20 I’m guessing

Tauru's second half against the Stringrays in the CTL finals has turned everyone's head and mainly ours by the looks of it.

At that point people probably thought of him as a 10-14 prospect given how aggressive and strong of an interceptor he'd developed into across the year.

He looked like an alpha, mobile, aggressive, modern KPF/CHF in that game and turned the tide in that game when moved up forward however. Dominant in the air, involved at ground level, setting the tone for forward pressure, his endurance numbers are excellent and he was getting up and down the ground even intercepting the ball as part of the forward half zone.

The fact he's grown an inch since preseason, his vertical numbers, long arms and game style you can see why he's bolted.

Everyone laments not having an additional pick for Caddy last year, but there were question marks with Nate. He played like a flanker at time, he liked the ball on ground level, whilst good overhead with long arms, he wasn't quite KPP size and how that might translate on a genuine #1 200cm AFL KPD. He was hot and cold throughout the season.

I don't have any of those same reservations with Tauru. He's taller, he's more aggressive in the air than Caddy, he's right at the pointy end of young talls and attacking the footy in the air and competitiveness (Im talking Jono Brown, Riewoldt etc) he's just as mobile and quick. He's got a big tank for a tall. With his vertical and the strength of his hands, he's going to be a handful for any defender at AFL level, also a genuine swingman whether forward or back.

Clubs would see the potential of Charlie Curnow 2.0 and I think I agree with them after that game. You can just imagine him with 10kg's. The fact he's looked like James Sicily for most of the year in defence, only further strengthens his prospects.

His sample size as a forward is admittedly very small, but I think some clubs would view that as a positive. He's come from the clouds this season, had he played more forward, he might not even be an option, even as high as #6.

Sometimes you only need to see flashes of a player, they were there in spades in that final. So much so I'd rate him ahead of Cadman in his draft year comparatively now.


IF of this is not to say we should just accept anything for #2 though.