Review 2024 National Draft Thread Part Deux - Welcome FOS, M.Whitlock, L.Urquhart & River Stevens

[archereleven]

All I read leading up to the draft was how top 5 picks play 150-200 games on average and how it drops off a cliff into the teens...

Guess what? We just traded a likely top 5 pick for 2 picks that exponentially fall off a cliff on a games played basis so we could 'pounce' on a kpd/kpf/swingman(who knows?)

Can someone tell me the likely amount of games Mitlock and pick 25 next year will play for NM? Is it 20-30 or less?
LOL.

FMD Snoz

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[HTPunter]

Wish I had one of their crystal balls….

What finishing spot have you predicted us for the last 5 years? I reckon I’ve been closer than you. I think it’s the blind brownnosers who need their crystal balls checked.

 

[hoffseason gains 01]

just some added perspective here, maybe a bit of copium but If Whitlock was top 10 on our board and we traded for say pick 11 and chose him, would we be less mad?

Reality is - if we did the same deal for 11 and F2 it would be seen as a win value wise.

As soon as we picked him at 11, people would complain of the value of the player.

We rate him higher than his brother and Jobe. Yet if we got 11 and picked either of those it’s a win.

It’s the weird conundrum about rating this type of move.

 

[Harvey Manfrenjensenden]

That is a really big IF.

As evident by your other supporters here.

After spending some time with you blokes in the last few weeks.

It actually bothers me what you just did.

What the **** is wrong with Rawlings and co?

Mate, with no due respect, if you think our results next year will be determined by what posters on this board think then you are as stupid as you sound.

 

[Roonescape]

Lots of armchair experts being real dramatic right now. If you're really so hopeless you think bottom 3 is a lock for next year, I'm not sure why you're still here.

 

[Souup]

I'm going to refrain from talking about how much I don't like this trade after this post, but another reason it is so shit is that Matt Whitlock won't be helping us rise up the ladder next year.

He has at least another 7-8kg left to put on before he's at a reasonable playing size and can impact consistently at the top level.

On the positive side, the kid is genuine modern day AFL KPP height, is as athletic as you'll find at that size and can play a variety of roles in either defense or up forward.

I still hate the trade on paper, but there's a real depraved part of me that loves how ballsy it is.

 

[Wild Bill]

Just remember that the 2024 draft wasn't overly compromised, but with Free Agency compensation, academy & FS picks the last pick in the 1st round still ended up being at 27. It's much more likely that Richmond's F2 in 2025 will be in the early 30s

And a pick 7 becomes 12 in a terrible draft.

 

[Sticksphat]

Acknowledging it might just be copium, but....... we needed a tall and by all accounts would have been happy to trade down this years first, as the draft was mid heavy in the first 10, but didn't want to give it away. Couldn't get a reasonable deal so took FOS. With that in mind we were happy to trade down next years first to get a KPF/D. Potentially a worst overall outcome than waiting until next year to see where we were with the picks, but we get our player a year early. It might just help me sleep a little better.

 

[Sphynx]

Its wild. But it can't be properly evaluated until we see how next year's draft pans out, how well Whitlock develops, and how well Richmond and ourselves perform.

If we finish as low as 10th, Richmond 17-18th, and there are 4 F/S and academy kids before our pick, it will make sense.

Agreed.

But whats the breakeven scenario here?

7th or 8th? That's only an additional 11 wins and 50% of percentage.......... Even then I still think it's a loss, as it's going to be a pick in the early teens for Pick 25ish and 27.

We'd be paying about 20/1 to make the final at the moment. So a 5% chance at a breakeven scenario.... About an 80% chance this goes down as one of the worst trade blunders ever.

Even then you have to consider the Daniel trade in conjunction with what has happened here, as it's relevant.

10 weeks ago, we had 2, 28, F1.

We walk away with FOS, Caleb Daniel and Matt Whitlock with the hand. I dunno about you, but that could have been turned into anyone we wanted during trade week.

We could have walked away with both the Whitlocks if we wanted to.

The Daniel trade was an absolute shocker given his age, he's doubled down on it here.


I hate to say it, but I called it at trade week r.e Clarko. I just knew the club was going to throw caution to the wind as it's pretty much now or never for him. He won't be North's coach if we are battling for a spoon the next 24 months.


However, based on this trade, none of them will be in job in 12 months time if we finish in the bottom 3.

 

[BrownPaperBag]

yeah, because that’s how you rebuild a 15 win in 5 year list - by pissing away limited avenues & means to improve the list.

We aren’t attracting free agents. We’re losing them. Our only avenue is getting value for top picks, not overpaying.

What if we rated Whitlock as a f1

 

[Shermanator]

Good to see the resident draft gurus ready to nuke the joint.. I mean they will have to wait until round 2 next year to sit on their computer with one hand on their sausage and the other thumb up their ass..

Whitlock and FOS haven’t even walked out of the ****in AFL beer garden yet..

Bloody hell the kid could turn out to be the next Sam Darcy, how about we cool our jets and let the kid play first FFS..

 

[HBFlanker]

For LDU?
What would that give us?

The pick after wherever we finish.

 

[giantroo]

Now to get his brother Jack tomorrow....

 

[Chewy Chewman]

As a sign of good will Richmond should just give us the first pick tomorrow for our Future 3rd

 

[verypoorboy]

Not sure Rawlings will be making trades willy nilly on draft night for no reason. There'd be targeted players that we'd be after.

Sent from my SM-A908B using Tapatalk

Do you not know Brady? May be one of the worst traders I’ve ever seen.

Give me his list of draft night pick swap **** ups.

Sent from my SM-A908B using Tapatalk

Well, well, well. Hate to say I told you so, but it’s so obvious that don’t need to.
Wrong again homeboy.

 

[Joshen]

I love the trade.

Backing ourselves to rise up the ladder next season.

Finally, no more excuses.

Burn the ships baby. 2025 is going to be fun.

 

[ohmygewd]

Just breathe through it bro best way to deal with it

I'm easy with it....just laughed at your pathetic equalisation jab...very uncalled for.

 

[Flawed Genius]

Just trade the 2026 F1 into 2025.

 

[krakouers]

Just trade the 2026 F1 into 2025.

Melbourne Strategy of one year in advance

 

[Infamy]

And a pick 7 becomes 12 in a terrible draft.

Correct and Picks 27 & 32 (in 2024 draft points) is actually worth Pick 12
If you look at it that way, it's not end of the world stuff, you just need to make sure that you guys get out of the bottom 6

 

[The Nostradamus]

I'm going to refrain from talking about how much I don't like this trade after this post, but another reason it is so shit is that Matt Whitlock won't be helping us rise up the ladder next year.

He has at least another 7-8kg left to put on before he's at a reasonable playing size and can impact consistently at the top level.

On the positive side, the kid is genuine modern day AFL KPP height, is as athletic as you'll find at that size and can play a variety of roles in either defense or up forward.

I still hate the trade on paper, but there's a real depraved part of me that loves how ballsy it is.

if we took shanahan over whitlock i'd be defending this trade

also i think we should have asked for 27 and 28 instead of 27 and future second

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

Maybe.

Our half backline will be best in the league.

Positive right?

Well it will certainly get plenty of opportunities with the ball parked in that zone.

 

[Sticksphat]

yeah, because that’s how you rebuild a 15 win in 5 year list - by pissing away limited avenues & means to improve the list.

We aren’t attracting free agents. We’re losing them. Our only avenue is getting value for top picks, not overpaying.

Who have we lost?

 

[Souup]

Now to get his brother Jack tomorrow....

Can we trade a 2026 F1 for him? May as well

 

[perplexed]

Did everyone see how many people were in that room wearing the beautiful royal blue polos?

Yet so many people think Brady did this on his own? It's just weird.

He is the list manager and this is a list management stuff up of monumental proportions. We used our future first on Caleb Daniel and then called out the wrong Whitlock. If any of the coaches or recruiters were getting in his ear and encouraging him to do stupid stuff, then it's his job to tell them to pull their heads in.