Review 2024 National Draft Thread Part Deux - Welcome FOS, M.Whitlock, L.Urquhart & River Stevens

[Lomas]

Thing is, did any other club have Matt Whitlock in their Top 10? Doesn't look like it. Why would we be right and all the other clubs are wrong?

Not many clubs had multiple picks, so hard to tell.

 

[EconomicDecline]

No.

You have applied bidding with Pick 27.

It started the night at Pick 23.

19 will blow out a similar value, if not more.

We need to make the 8.

View attachment 2171457


IF we finish in the same position, we effectively give Richmond an additional First Rounder in value.

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If you were to take this years score lines and add to it to show what improvement North would need.

A 4 goal improvement over every single game would see a total of 8 wins next year. That would put North at 15th and they would have traded away pick 4.

North will need a 7 goal improvement over every single game to see them make the 8 with 13 wins based on 2024 score lines.

That's the reality of the situation.

Not sure any team has leapt into finals with such a big turn around. Any team that has was either a blip year in a finals run (Geelong 2023, Collingwood 2021), or had shown sustained improvement in percentage (Carlton 2022, Brisbane 2018). For example; Brisbane's dramatic 2018 to 2019 turn around was only off the back of a percentage improvement that saw them improve their scoring by an additional 24.27 points per game (combination of for/against improvement).

 

[Shermanator]

Thing is, did any other club have Matt Whitlock in their Top 10? Doesn't look like it. Why would we be right and all the other clubs are wrong?

Why are wasting your life worrying about what the other clubs think or do?..

I only care about where the NMFC have prioritised our list needs and that they address them, couldn't give a rats ass about the other 17 clubs or their supporters

Strap yourself in brother, LDU, Sheez, Kerch, Warden, FOS and co are going to be a joy to watch!

 

[The Dingrel]

Thing is, did any other club have Matt Whitlock in their Top 10? Doesn't look like it. Why would we be right and all the other clubs are wrong?

I think the question we should be asking is what key forwards would be available to us next year? Knowing they take time, and we have just bought a bit of time bringing in Darling, this makes a hell of a lot of sense to me. There is quite a bit of everything in this draft and so hardly surprising that the talls are shuffled back a bit.

 

[LETSGOKANGAS]

The club knows LDU is gone and will net us a 2025 first rounder after our natural selection hence the trade last night.

I also had a dream last night that we lost to Port Adelaide in a grand-final 76 to 33.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Get stoked. We paid overs, but got another sheezel/mckercher PLUS FINALLY A KPF!!!!!!

Stuff future first. Let's get stmpf, shanahan or the other Whitlock.

Also us and Richmond the ONLY teams to grab KPF. So either no one rated them or no one needed them... who cares either way, we did it. We got a kpf. Wooooooooo!!!!!

He's been more KPD than KPF from what I understand.

 

[BrownPaperBag]

The club knows LDU is gone and will net us a 2025 first rounder after our natural selection hence the trade last night.

I also had a dream last night that we lost to Port Adelaide in a grand-final 76 to 33.

Is this right is it

 

[The Dingrel]

So we currently have pick 54. Are there any bids coming for the Camporeale twins or other F/S or Academy kids that could move that up a bit? Could we possible end up with Gerryn as well?

 

[Passmore]

And that was after the Finn pick. Hope he has only one TV.

 

[The Dingrel]

He's been more KPD than KPF from what I understand.

I think Matt's selection (over his brother and other KPP's) has Clarko's fingerprints stamped all over it. 1/ seems to love country kids, 2/ flexibility back or forward, being multi dimensional seems to be highly valued.

 

[King Corey]

Whilst your on mate, complete melts over future 1st trade or kinda meh and ready to just get excited?

Assume you're genuinely asking a fellow posters take - I am relatively comfortable with this. And traditionally I rate early picks close to untradeable.

A few random musings, not all original:

We needed more KPP bets on the list, they're the most speculative but crucial player type

Sometimes you just have to pay up. We hold tight and insist on F2 and/or F3 as best offer and we're probably kicking in around pick 45+. Mraz, Whitlock,Shanahan all gone and we're in the dregs of the tall talent after Richmond picked the eyes out of them. Reminds of a similar draft death zone where suddenly all the interesting 2nd tier guys like Mannagh etc got snapped up in a hurry.

We clearly rated Mattlock highly. Here's a hypothetical - Sydney draft him, he looks a great prospect in the VFL developing in line with the King brothers, trapped behind Amartey & Co. 2025 he asks for a trade and we pay our round 1 pick. Controversy = 0

The top 5 in 2025 will no doubt be jets, it'll sting a bit but shifting our collateral for a quality prospect of need is a mature approach that clubs like Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane haven't shied away from

We've had multiple high picks over 2020-2024 and only 4 genuine KPP options ranked in that bracket - Thilthorpe, JUH, Walter, McDonald. 3 weren't available to us and the other one polarises opinion. We never had a Nick Riewoldt or Buddy Franklin on the table when we held a high pick.

Wouldn't want us pulling this knife edge shit every year but we were staring down the barrel of this in 2 years:

• Goad - absolute speculative pick and more likely a ruck than KPP
• Larkey - 28yo, at his peak
• Maley - as much chance delisted as listed
• Xerri - ruck only
• K.Dawson - see Maley
• W.Dawson - I'm not sold yet, good signs but hasn't demonstrated compelling week to week reserves footy yet to confidently state he's assured a long quality AFL career
• Corr - possibly retired
• Darling - retired
• Comben - quality, entering peak years. Can he stay on tbe park?
• Pink - most likely delisted
• Teakle - rate him but too small career sample size to bank on
• Logue - see Comben

All up, assuming past performance predicts future returns, there's only 2 guys I'm reasonably confidently planning around from that list:

• Larkey
• Xerri

~We had to reach with our F1, putting aside the wisdom of previous decisions ie Daniel trade.

What did you make of it?

 

[LB2Snake]

The club knows LDU is gone and will net us a 2025 first rounder after our natural selection hence the trade last night.

I also had a dream last night that we lost to Port Adelaide in a grand-final 76 to 33.

Saints are offering LDU 1.6/year....just had that relayed to me from someone VERY high up at Saints. That's what we will be matching

 

[kool kangas]

Picks 52/72/82/is that right for tomorrow

And 2x F2nd, F3rd and F4th...for Brady and co to play with..

 

[hellas_johnny]

Club rated Matt at 10. Jack being too 1 dimensional is why we saw took Matt over jack... don't be surprised if we somehow get it aswell

 

[DesertRoo]

I think Matt's selection (over his brother and other KPP's) has Clarko's fingerprints stamped all over it. 1/ seems to love country kids, 2/ flexibility back or forward, being multi dimensional seems to be highly valued.

My theory, we're after both Whitlocks, the next few picks is from Richmond, Bulldogs x 2 and Eagles.
One of them might look at a key position back but they're pretty stacked for forwards. Hence now it gives us a block to trade with.
I see St Kilda and Port as being the most likely to select Jack.

Brady has his work cut out for him on the phones this morning.

 

[BrownPaperBag]

A poor negotiator trades based predominantly on how they value the player. A smart negotiator will anticipate what the market values that player, and will seek to strike a trade that fits the market's perception, not their own.

Just about everyone had the Whitlocks going between 20-30, with Faull and Shanahan also in that range. Logic says at least two of them ought to fall there - and as it turns out, 3 of them will have come after pick 27.

Sure, we might have valued M Whitlock at 13, but just because we do, we shouldn't corner ourselves into having to pay pick 13 value when it was clear that Whitlock (or else another KPF we rated similarly) would be available at pick 27+.

This is what makes it poor list management.

Sorry mate that is crap. If we don’t take a player we want that falls in the range of our valuation of him (if we rate him at the value of F1) because of some need to pay only what some future pick might be worth then we are daft.

The only thing that matters is our valuation of Whitlock. If we are happy that him and f2 is worth f1 you do the deal.


In 5 yrs if Whitlock is a good player for us no one will care

 

[jay317]

Saints are offering LDU 1.6/year....just had that relayed to me from someone VERY high up at Saints. That's what we will be matching

That's what, $1M on the old cap? Pretty easy to match for us at this stage.

 

[The Y Factor]

Sorry mate that is crap. If we don’t take a player we want that falls in the range of our valuation of him (if we rate him at the value of F1) because of some need to pay only what some future pick might be worth then we are daft.

The only thing that matters is our valuation of Whitlock. If we are happy that him and f2 is worth f1 you do the deal.


In 5 yrs if Whitlock is a good player for us no one will care

Thurstfield said it in his last interview. Value the player, not the pick. The picks are assets to get players you want.

 

[The Dingrel]

Saints are offering LDU 1.6/year....just had that relayed to me from someone VERY high up at Saints. That's what we will be matching

don't necessarily need to match it,,,,,he just needs to see that we are going to be a force and win silverware during his career. That looks a lot more probable at North than St Kilda given the list build (no flags in my lifetime compared to our 4). A couple hundred grand a year on a contract (especially after tax) isn't worth leaving the club that drafted you, after you've done the hard yards, if you believe success is imminent, playing with your mates, and playing for Clarko (hawks fan as a kid). He'll be paid well either way, but building real wealth comes from investments, not a high salary. A high salary just enables leverage.

 

[Boro]

FOS Sheezel McKercher
Xerri LDU Wardlaw


What's there to be upset about?

 

[DesertRoo]

FOS Sheezel McKercher
Xerri LDU Wardlaw


What's there to be upset about?

Edit: I just read the article attached to this, LOL at Caroline and Lloyd being upset, I recon you'd see a standing ovation from the North faithful if he did this again against the bombres

‘Juvenile, nasty and a bit of a bully’: Wilson blasts Parker’s ‘un-Swans like’ taunting of Shiel

‘Juvenile, nasty and a bit of a bully’: Swans star slammed for ‘arrogant’ act

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Fish Sticks]

Am I right we no have two F2s and two F3s? If so I like the idea from the Adelaide poster above keep the two F2s and an F3 might be able to trade that to a club with a top 10 pick that wants to trade out for points for an academy player then see if we can use the extra F3 to upgrade what was 62 coming into this draft as high as possible ~40ish.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This. The talk of another compromised draft next year will see clubs looking to trade out of the first round to get multiple later picks.
We could easily package up our future R2s & R3s to get a first round pick.
With changes to bidding next year, R4 picks have no points assigned to them, so our picks will be valuable.

 

[The_General#1]

Couple of nice picks. I hope FOS can get to his best. His performances this year were par at best. I know he was injured for the most part. So some flexibility cause of this.

 

[Blightys Barrel]

I am guessing everyone must be enjoying a nice Banh Mi Chicken roll with extra chilli after a pretty exiting first draft night. Lots of opinions, emotions, insight and varying levels of shite expressed on this board. I take this as a positive as we are all passionate observers on the sidelines wanting the best for the club.

Perhaps a good time to roll out the famous quote from Roosevelt below. Brady, Todd, Clarko and all the recruiting guys in that draft room are in the Arena. With round 2 tonight, and not one game played yet in 2025, I suggest a big chill pill and we can assess this draft and trade hand in 2027 like any sane football judge would do. Go Kangas!!


It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.

 

[Twangler]

So if we are picking Stevens in the main list that means we have just 1 additional spot for DFA? Any rookie draft spots?