Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[Ollo]

 

[Blue__Balls]

#itsalotteryalwayswasalwayswillbe

Expanding on this - thought it might be interesting to consider whether there were any consistent traits among those top 5 picks who didn't pan out.

2010 - Harley Bennell, Jared Polec
2011 - Matt Buntine
2012 - Jonathan O'Rourke, Jimmy Toumpas
2013 - no outright busts, Jack Billings definitely hanging on by the skin of his teeth
2014 - Jarrod Pickett
2015 - Josh Schache
2016 - Will Setterfield
2017 - Paddy Dow
2018 - no outright busts, Lukosius, Rankine and King underwhelming vs expectations
2019 - Dylan Stephens
2020 - Will Phillips(?)
2021 - outstanding top 5
2022 - Elijah Tsatas
2023 - too early to call

Not sure there's a consistent common thread, but a few cautionary tales. You probably don't want to gamble on a highly skilled player who lacks physicality or intensity, nor do you want to reach for a niche position of need (GWS more guilty of this with their bounty of high picks).

Based on those characteristics - FOS potentially the bigger risk, he's the one with athleticism and skills but maybe a bit too laconic and easy-going with how he plays. The only one from the above list who fails purely on shit disposal is Tsatas, and I don't think Draper is anywhere near as bad as him, even if he's comparatively slightly less classy than the others this year.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Cal said he expects Lucas to join us with our 4th pick and some clubs rate him ahead of Ben (more clubs rate ben higher though).

 

[VainGlorious]

actual footage of me waiting for the draft

 

[Arr0w]

Expanding on this - thought it might be interesting to consider whether there were any consistent traits among those top 5 picks who didn't pan out.

2010 - Harley Bennell, Jared Polec
2011 - Matt Buntine
2012 - Jonathan O'Rourke, Jimmy Toumpas
2013 - no outright busts, Jack Billings definitely hanging on by the skin of his teeth
2014 - Jarrod Pickett
2015 - Josh Schache
2016 - Will Setterfield
2017 - Paddy Dow
2018 - no outright busts, Lukosius, Rankine and King underwhelming vs expectations
2019 - Dylan Stephens
2020 - Will Phillips(?)
2021 - outstanding top 5
2022 - Elijah Tsatas
2023 - too early to call

Not sure there's a consistent common thread, but a few cautionary tales. You probably don't want to gamble on a highly skilled player who lacks physicality or intensity, nor do you want to reach for a niche position of need (GWS more guilty of this with their bounty of high picks).

Based on those characteristics - FOS potentially the bigger risk, he's the one with athleticism and skills but maybe a bit too laconic and easy-going with how he plays. The only one from the above list who fails purely on shit disposal is Tsatas, and I don't think Draper is anywhere near as bad as him, even if he's comparatively slightly less classy than the others this year.

Seems the bigger risk is players that don't have genuine dual position traits

At the pointy end this year, that might be Draper

 

[GoBlues!]

I think Cal just said Smith is the favourite for us rn.

I think Cal has been closely watching our poll Pab…

 

[Arr0w]

Cal said he expects Lucas to join us with our 4th pick and some clubs rate him ahead of Ben (more clubs rate ben higher though).

Mentioned this a while back, not so much rating him higher, just believe he has better AFL traits

 

[tarczonandjane]

Mentioned this a while back, not so much rating him higher, just believe he has better AFL traits

You’ve definitely been consistent on this one, Arr0w

 

[marcmurphy3]

Seems the bigger risk is players that don't have genuine dual position traits

At the pointy end this year, that might be Draper

Having a 2nd position probably doesn't increase your upside but it really limits your downside as the player will be able to fit into the team even if they don't cut it as a mid (where the best players play).

 

[GT619]

At pick 3 I want the best player available, if it’s Sid I’ll be very happy! I just don’t want us to pick a player because he is fast

no it has to be more than that

 

[marcmurphy3]

Mentioned this a while back, not so much rating him higher, just believe he has better AFL traits

I can follow that logic. Ben plays in a position where the best players play and probably can't play anywhere else. Competition will be stiff.

Lucas plays a niche position mostly occupied by role players and plays it really well. Probably plays the wing role better then any player in the draft. It'll be easier for him to make it.

 

[JustaBattler]

Expanding on this - thought it might be interesting to consider whether there were any consistent traits among those top 5 picks who didn't pan out.

2010 - Harley Bennell, Jared Polec
2011 - Matt Buntine
2012 - Jonathan O'Rourke, Jimmy Toumpas
2013 - no outright busts, Jack Billings definitely hanging on by the skin of his teeth
2014 - Jarrod Pickett
2015 - Josh Schache
2016 - Will Setterfield
2017 - Paddy Dow
2018 - no outright busts, Lukosius, Rankine and King underwhelming vs expectations
2019 - Dylan Stephens
2020 - Will Phillips(?)
2021 - outstanding top 5
2022 - Elijah Tsatas
2023 - too early to call

Not sure there's a consistent common thread, but a few cautionary tales. You probably don't want to gamble on a highly skilled player who lacks physicality or intensity, nor do you want to reach for a niche position of need (GWS more guilty of this with their bounty of high picks).

Based on those characteristics - FOS potentially the bigger risk, he's the one with athleticism and skills but maybe a bit too laconic and easy-going with how he plays. The only one from the above list who fails purely on shit disposal is Tsatas, and I don't think Draper is anywhere near as bad as him, even if he's comparatively slightly less classy than the others this year.

1. In AFL, a player will develop into someone who can run well enough for long enough to be able to just get to where they should be or need to be - that is # defining difference between those who make it and those who dont - the first filter.
2. Second filter is if they can do that - can they actually execute in the contested area of play (and all that means)
3. The third filter is can they do both ( ie a proper balance of both) at a level lower/equal to or better ( and how much better) than the average AFL player.
4. then put it all in the context of the list they are playing with, the coach, their privste life, habits, interests, motivations - all. cornucopia of idiosyncratic persanal developmental challenges

#lotteryalwayswasalwayswillbe
#avoidruntsatallcosts

That said thr game is being 'evolved' into a running touch football game - the irony is that the more running you emphasise, skills like field kicking become harder to incorporate into the average player - because they are too buggered by the running and also operate in too much congestion all the time because of the rotations they have allowed and the ever increasing bench numbers to choose from.

All the kids selected in draft are capable athletes at schoolboy level - some are more developed because of the opportunities they have been afforded according to the schools they have gone to and the training regimes they have been under. However when they enter the AFL ystem they are all playing aginst similarly gifted athletes - who have years of developemnt uner their belts.

The Harley Reids/Nick Daicoses out there are 4 standard deviations better than the best at their age - extremely rare.

 

[GT619]

Fox Footy Phantom

Blues taking Jagga Smith, Crows taking Langford. Draper sliding to the Saints at 8.

What a topsy turvy draft year this is.

maybe it shows they don't know themselves

 

[Arr0w]

I can follow that logic. Ben plays in a position where the best players play and probably can't play anywhere else. Competition will be stiff.

Lucas plays a niche position mostly occupied by role players and plays it really well. Probably plays the wing role better then any player in the draft. It'll be easier for him to make it.

Think he would also make for a decent HB

 

[marcmurphy3]

Think he would also make for a decent HB

For sure

 

[TheReal99prelim]

Nothing has changed in 100 years

Mindset is the trait that's hard to quantify when looking at the top 5-6 mids

Who wants it more?
Who is willing to want to impact when the chips are down?
Who's the most focused for the entire game; always looking around, creating option, covering unmarked player etc
Who can see that a shepherd at the relevant moment is more important than asking for the ball?
Who knows that they "don't know what they don't know" and put their U18 ego in the bottom draw at home, ready to become vulnerable and a "new" student of the game again?
Who is a disciple of the 1% and team first ethos even i they themselves are having a quiet day?
Who is the most willing to unconditionally be as physically prepared as they can be , at all times

This will separate them over the next 5 years (and yes, injuries may play a part)

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Nothing has changed in 100 years
Mindset is the trait that's hard to quantify when looking at the top 5-6 mids
Who wants it more?
Who is willing to want to impact when the chips are down?
Who's the most focused for the entire game; always looking around, creating option, covering unmarked player etc
Who can see that a shepherd at the relevant moment is more important than asking for the ball?
Who knows that they don't know what they don't know and put their U18 ego in the bottom draw at home, ready to become vulnerable and a "new" student of the game again?
Who is the most willing to unconditionally be as physically prepared as they can be , at all times

This will separate them over the next 5 years (and yes, injuries may play a part)

Exactamondo, and who is mentally prepared to continue to gut run when your body is screaming no. Especially defensively.

A few had injuries this year, who came out the other side of that the best and who handled the setbacks the best.

Draper…..


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[DirtyLeeds]

FOS smells like Paddy Dow

15

Paddy Dow

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

7.1

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.4

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

.....nice boy...Draper will hit the ground like a train....But Jagga has all the moves of a decade long star.

Pick 3= Jagga Smith................FOS/Draper/Langford (reckon Lalor/Ragnar go 1&2)

 

[Sector 7G]

Expanding on this - thought it might be interesting to consider whether there were any consistent traits among those top 5 picks who didn't pan out.

2010 - Harley Bennell, Jared Polec
2011 - Matt Buntine
2012 - Jonathan O'Rourke, Jimmy Toumpas
2013 - no outright busts, Jack Billings definitely hanging on by the skin of his teeth
2014 - Jarrod Pickett
2015 - Josh Schache
2016 - Will Setterfield
2017 - Paddy Dow
2018 - no outright busts, Lukosius, Rankine and King underwhelming vs expectations
2019 - Dylan Stephens
2020 - Will Phillips(?)
2021 - outstanding top 5
2022 - Elijah Tsatas
2023 - too early to call

Not sure there's a consistent common thread, but a few cautionary tales. You probably don't want to gamble on a highly skilled player who lacks physicality or intensity, nor do you want to reach for a niche position of need (GWS more guilty of this with their bounty of high picks).

Based on those characteristics - FOS potentially the bigger risk, he's the one with athleticism and skills but maybe a bit too laconic and easy-going with how he plays. The only one from the above list who fails purely on shit disposal is Tsatas, and I don't think Draper is anywhere near as bad as him, even if he's comparatively slightly less classy than the others this year.

To me Key Risks drafting.
Players that get a lot of uncontested ball but can't win contested ball.
Forwards that rely on leading/ getting into space. U18 anti congestion rules makes these players look a lot better than they will be at AFL level.
Half forwards with potential to go through the midfield. If they aren't good enough to play full time mid as a junior they probably aren't going to step up and do it in the AFL.
A Man child that doesn't dominate against smaller opponents in juniors.
Players that show no improvement from their underage year to their senior year in juniors

That said X factor players are always going to be high risk. Would you take Cam Rayner with his X factor or Andrew Brayshaw who will play a 7.5-8 out of 10 game every week.

 

[marcmurphy3]

To me Key Risks drafting.
Players that get a uncontested ball but can't win contested ball.
Forwards that rely on leading/ getting into space. U18 anti congestion rules makes these players look a lot better than they will be at AFL level.
Half forwards with potential to go through the midfield. If they aren't good enough to play full time mid as a junior they probably aren't going to step up and do it in the AFL.
A Man child that doesn't dominate against smaller opponents in juniors.
Players that show no improvement from their underage year to their senior year in juniors

That said X factor players are always going to be high risk. Would you take Cam Rayner with his X factor or Andrew Brayshaw who will play a 7.5-8 out of 10 game every week.

Would add:
Midfielders who dont find alot of the ball and/or have poor tanks.

I think youd take a Brayshaw over a Rayner unless you already had a few Brayshaws.

 

[bradfisher14]

Because everything I’ve seen says they won’t.
And if they were willing to make a trade, then how would Adelaide even be a consideration?

What have you seen that says they will?

My feeling is that all of that stuff is just posturing and Richmond will swoop in on draft night.

 

[Blue and Silver]

If Tigers skip Lalor, would that change people trying to trade up to 2?

I think he's a difficult prospect to rate, great attributes, but lack of game time and injury concerns has me wondering.



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[Sector 7G]

Would add:
Midfielders who dont find alot of the ball and/or have poor tanks.

I think youd take a Brayshaw over a Rayner unless you already had a few Brayshaws.

Makes you think if Crippa had not grown 3 inches after we drafted him, something you couldn't predict, would he just have been an average mid? Plenty thought his lack of a tank meant he would be a bust, There was a lot of luck in that pick.

 

[Stamos]

If Tigers skip Lalor, would that change people trying to trade up to 2?

It makes zero difference.
We don't have currency to trade up.

 

[Bletch]

I know it's an opinion obviously...

But I haven't seen Jagga going number 1 in any other mock drafts... found it interesting....

On CPH2135 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Well...

2024 (Tenacious) Annual Carlton Board Phantom Draft

https://s.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf Pick Club Player (click on player below, will take you to post) Poster 1 Richmond Jagga Smith Bletch 2 Brisbane * Levi Ashcroft Sheephead 3 Richmond Sam Lalor Bletch 4 Carlton Harvey Langford...

www.bigfooty.com

I still like Jagga, but think Tigs will pick Lalor.