Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[TrueQldBlue]

Can ignore that phantom. Not based on any intel. Its just who the journo thinks clubs should take.

I know it's an opinion obviously...

But I haven't seen Jagga going number 1 in any other mock drafts... found it interesting....

On CPH2135 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[TrueQldBlue]

Just from a couple whispers

Club rates Lalor & FOS

Next level, Smith Draper, Langford (no idea of the pecking order)

I want either Jagga or Draper

On CPH2135 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[marcmurphy3]

Watching gettable. Nothing new but Cal mentioned FOS, Jagga and Draper as the 3 for our pick. No doubt he'll go one of those 3 in his phantom. No mention of Langford for us.

 

[BrianSetzer]

As much as his musings throw this place into a frenzy, has he ever got anything right?

No, he's hopeless lol

 

[TrueQldBlue]

One thing is that Draper would have played a bit of footy with Campo boys as well...

May be an idea of our crew to keep them together....

I won't whinge if we take the Drapes

On CPH2135 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[marcmurphy3]

Thursfield speaking glowingly about Tauru (NM recruiting manager). Spoke positively of FOS as well but he did light up when talking about Tauru. Sounds like the decision was made a few weeks ago. Might be reading into it but I'd lean towards them going for Tauru.

 

[Stamos]

He’s the ‘most talented’ kid in the draft. So why isn’t Finn O’Sullivan a lock at No.1?

Finn O’Sullivan is routinely referred to as the most talented player in this year’s AFL draft class, but there is no certainty about where he will end up on Wednesday night.

www.theage.com.au

https://archive.md/SPcBm

 

[marcmurphy3]

Cal reckons most clubs would rate FOS over Lalor, but Lalor is a powerful type and a better forward while FOS is more pure mid despite having some ability to play elsewhere. Says Tigers probably think they can get other midfielders later but not a Lalor type.

 

[Pablito]

North list boss on gettable.
"It's down to 2 players"
Regarding Taru "lots of growth left"

Reckon they're taking FOS or Lalor. He was super complementary of FOS.

Also reckon they're not trading it.

 

[marcmurphy3]

North list boss on gettable.
"It's down to 2 players"
Regarding Taru "lots of growth left"

Reckon they're taking FOS or Lalor. He was super complementary of FOS.

Also reckon they're not trading it.

Haha funny how people can get different perceptions watching the same thing. I thought he was a lot more emotive when talking about Tauru. I thought the growth comment was in reference to his upside.

 

[Pablito]

Haha funny how people can get different perceptions watching the same thing. I thought he was a lot more emotive when talking about Tauru. I thought the growth comment was in reference to his upside.

Interesting take, it seemed to me like one player he talked about had no negative except for a couple throw away lines about finger injuries and the other had room to grow.

He also emphasised they took 2 talls last year in Dawson and Goad.

If I was putting money on it, I'd put it on FOS at 2.

 

[El Topo]

Just from a couple whispers

Club rates Lalor & FOS

Next level, Smith Draper, Langford (no idea of the pecking order)

Consistent with meedya reports and ITK Yazz when when pick trade went down - speculation is fun but there's no way we're passing on FOS if he makes it to #3

 

[Arr0w]

Consistent with meedya reports and ITK Yazz when when pick trade went down - speculation is fun but there's no way we're passing on FOS if he makes it to #3

Would seem that way, for now

 

[Arr0w]

What would be fun, is if Tigers trade for pick 2, taking both Lalor and FOS

Then Crows wanting to trade for 3 with 4 and a future to take Draper

Doubt either would happen though

 

[Blue__Balls]

I don't mind who we take at 3. I have confidence in our research and there is not a bust among them. Langford looks the most complete, to my eye. Draper or FOS are most welcome

Optimistic. I had a scan back over the drafts going all the way back to 2010 - I reckon there are maybe 3 seasons where the top 5 didn't produce a bust, and one of those years definitely had a few underwhelming selections.

Statistically speaking, odds are good that one of the top 5 selections this year will go on to have a short and/or unspectacular career.

Of course, the flipside is that if you avoid the bust....you probably got yourself an absolute gun.

 

[JustaBattler]

Optimistic. I had a scan back over the drafts going all the way back to 2010 - I reckon there are maybe 3 seasons where the top 5 didn't produce a bust, and one of those years definitely had a few underwhelming selections.

Statistically speaking, odds are good that one of the top 5 selections this year will go on to have a short and/or unspectacular career.

Of course, the flipside is that if you avoid the bust....you probably got yourself an absolute gun.

#itsalotteryalwayswasalwayswillbe

 

[reubsblues]

I don't know why but I just don't want FOS....
Can't put my finger on it why...just ...feel it

On CPH2135 using BigFooty.com mobile app

I f have the same feeling about Draper

 

[Pablito]

I think Cal just said Smith is the favourite for us rn.

 

[Soapy V]

I have asked a couple of people who we are targeting and many aren't sure

Seems to be we really like FOS if available but also rate Draper, Langford, Smith

My gut feel is we are still discussing as no one is 100% on what Tigers or North are doing. I reckon discussions are still on going and won't be decided until Wednesday. It's that close

Have to remember that we have so much more going on than Pick 3. I have no doubt Austin wants another pick before taking Ben Campo and it seems Lucas will get a senior spot as well.

Then we have other spots to fill. Pick 3 will be a gun regardless. I am more intersted in what we do after that and how we add to our list.

Going to be a fun week

 

[Ollo]

I think Cal just said Smith is the favourite for us rn.

Yep said Smith has been favourite for us for a while now.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Yep said Smith has been favourite for us for a while now.

You beauty!

 

[marcmurphy3]

I reckon Cals phantom will go

1. Lalor
2. FOS
3. Smith

Then either
4. Draper
5. Langford
6. Smillie
7. Tauru
Or
4. Langford
5. Tauru
6. Smillie
7. Draper

 

[marcmurphy3]

Yep said Smith has been favourite for us for a while now.

Trying hard not to give away his phantom which is hard when going through all the picks. But when he got to pick 3, he just said Smith pretty confidently.

 

[Ollo]

 

[Blue__Balls]

#itsalotteryalwayswasalwayswillbe

Expanding on this - thought it might be interesting to consider whether there were any consistent traits among those top 5 picks who didn't pan out.

2010 - Harley Bennell, Jared Polec
2011 - Matt Buntine
2012 - Jonathan O'Rourke, Jimmy Toumpas
2013 - no outright busts, Jack Billings definitely hanging on by the skin of his teeth
2014 - Jarrod Pickett
2015 - Josh Schache
2016 - Will Setterfield
2017 - Paddy Dow
2018 - no outright busts, Lukosius, Rankine and King underwhelming vs expectations
2019 - Dylan Stephens
2020 - Will Phillips(?)
2021 - outstanding top 5
2022 - Elijah Tsatas
2023 - too early to call

Not sure there's a consistent common thread, but a few cautionary tales. You probably don't want to gamble on a highly skilled player who lacks physicality or intensity, nor do you want to reach for a niche position of need (GWS more guilty of this with their bounty of high picks).

Based on those characteristics - FOS potentially the bigger risk, he's the one with athleticism and skills but maybe a bit too laconic and easy-going with how he plays. The only one from the above list who fails purely on shit disposal is Tsatas, and I don't think Draper is anywhere near as bad as him, even if he's comparatively slightly less classy than the others this year.