Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Chamber JJJ]

If we get 2 picks in before the Ben bid, I would hope that 1 is a tall defender.

I don't think we got the points if we take the 2 picks before him and some club bid on him next that pick wipes 62,65 and 69 points and is still short using some of next year 1st pick points dropping pick lower. We also Lose Luke Camporeale if someone pick him late.

 

[Coona Blues]

O'Farrell not even listed in Top 30 we currently have Pick 11 being 12 or 13 more likely because of Academy Pick hopefully we have Pick 19 or 20 last pick of 1st Round. That pick likely Cooper Hynes 190cm Midfielder, Alex Tauru 193cm Defender Pick 20 or Jobe Shanahan 194cm Forward Defender Pick 21. Xavier Lindsay 183cm Midfielder Pick 16 out of reach most likely. Ben Camporeale will be taken second and Luke Camporeale 3rd. We don't have points left to get O'Farrell unless his like pick 70 when points run out we be lucky to have enough picks for Luke with 62, 65 and 69 if he is taken like 44 say worth 362 - 20% . 289 points Pick 62,65,69 = about 262 we still short 27 points from 2023 Point System so we lose 27 points from our spot in 2025 draft,

It is amazing how much credence people give to media and forum fantasy prognosticators. Most are just searching for clicks and have as much idea as you do from watching other people’s observations. I watch the reports and some footage closely, sometimes years in advance, and there is nothing definitive. Pretty much every year we end up with someone in the top 20 or 30 that even close watchers haven’t heard of or seriously considered until the last few days, if at all.

The only “Phantom” with real credence is Twomey’s later one a week or so pre draft. Not because he is some sort of Svengali or guru, but because his media role gives him access to club recruiters and more notably player agents privy to the levels of interest shown by clubs in specific players.

O’Farrell, pre injury was regarded as close to top 10. Missed a fair bit of footy and is very slight so likely needs some physical development. Someone may reach for him with a late first, or he might last until the third round with clubs wanting an option who can play earlier. On his best underage form Lindsay could be top 10, realistically late first, but a current injury could have him slide a little further. Projections are for Ben to slide, but it only takes one bid to upset our plans. It may be that we make it known we won’t match early bids on either boy. We won’t want to over commit in a very competitive draft. Shanahan will almost certainly be a first rounder and could conceivably go top 10 on recent form. (Review my posts if you want, have always rated him very highly) Hynes is very hard to rate, but around the mark you suggest is likely and Tauru is a bit of a trap. He is getting plenty of press off some raw potential and his appearance, he is a long way off the finished product and very speculative for a high pick. Also nit genuine key position height, so I doubt we are interested.

Our key defender needs should be gettable with O’Farrell and a WA boy (who was All Australian) Clancy Dennis likely second rounders. Others like Matt Whitlock and Noah Mraz are prospects in similar range, Whitlock may go higher as a swingman and Mraz possibly lower.

 

[Bfevola]

But we all know that St Kilda (SOS) will purposly bid on Ben to make us give up a 1st. We all know that.

 

[Chamber JJJ]

We're also looking at Charlie McCartin. KPD. Playing with Ed Curnow.

Problem with McCartin have issues with knocks to the head seem like their skulls are more vulnerable to injury

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

Is there any precedence of clubs not honouring their F/S commitment's because another club simply bids too high.

I'm wondering what the 'cut-off' and walk away level is for each of the Campos is?

 

[Coona Blues]

What if the other clubs take him pick 44-50

We can plan for that. While not preferred we can change our list balance. Currently run with 36 main list players and 6 rookies. This can be changed to max 38 on main list. There are salary cap ramifications, but unless we trade in a high value type, we could afford the exercise.

Of course we do have the option of passing on one or both of the boys. A recent interview suggested they had no guarantees from the club of being taken.

 

[Chamber JJJ]

It is amazing how much credence people give to media and forum fantasy prognosticators. Most are just searching for clicks and have as much idea as you do from watching other people’s observations. I watch the reports and some footage closely, sometimes years in advance, and there is nothing definitive. Pretty much every year we end up with someone in the top 20 or 30 that even close watchers haven’t heard of or seriously considered until the last few days, if at all.

The only “Phantom” with real credence is Twomey’s later one a week or so pre draft. Not because he is some sort of Svengali or guru, but because his media role gives him access to club recruiters and more notably player agents privy to the levels of interest shown by clubs in specific players.

O’Farrell, pre injury was regarded as close to top 10. Missed a fair bit of footy and is very slight so likely needs some physical development. Someone may reach for him with a late first, or he might last until the third round with clubs wanting an option who can play earlier. On his best underage form Lindsay could be top 10, realistically late first, but a current injury could have him slide a little further. Projections are for Ben to slide, but it only takes one bid to upset our plans. It may be that we make it known we won’t match early bids on either boy. We won’t want to over commit in a very competitive draft. Shanahan will almost certainly be a first rounder and could conceivably go top 10 on recent form. (Review my posts if you want, have always rated him very highly) Hynes is very hard to rate, but around the mark you suggest is likely and Tauru is a bit of a trap. He is getting plenty of press off some raw potential and his appearance, he is a long way off the finished product and very speculative for a high pick. Also nit genuine key position height, so I doubt we are interested.

Our key defender needs should be gettable with O’Farrell and a WA boy (who was All Australian) Clancy Dennis likely second rounders. Others like Matt Whitlock and Noah Mraz are prospects in similar range, Whitlock may go higher as a swingman and Mraz possibly lower.

He is skinny guy just has he got the tools to bulk up and be that hard defender or just be a Plowman type. Whitlocks will definitely not be taken by us i don't think they be as good as Josh Schache turned up to be. The other thing don't worry about Tasmania most of the recruit will depart after 2 years. AFL will have a crises Most Aussies unlike me hate the cold And Tasmania will bore them to death. It a good place for a visit although most skip as a Holiday but not a place living for most.

 

[Chamber JJJ]

You realise recruiters don't go off cal Twomey and make their own lists right?!!!!

Yes and their a bit of Nepotism as well i believe in my opinion.

 

[Chamber JJJ]

We can plan for that. While not preferred we can change our list balance. Currently run with 36 main list players and 6 rookies. This can be changed to max 38 on main list. There are salary cap ramifications, but unless we trade in a high value type, we could afford the exercise.

Of course we do have the option of passing on one or both of the boys. A recent interview suggested they had no guarantees from the club of being taken.

Still need the points say if some nut took Ben at 19 we be using our pick 31 points and points from later picks to equal those points minus 20% off pick 19. We need to find a descent pick of points trading a player so this is why i think Owies yet to sign. I think if he leaves we will get decent pick well i hope so or we get screwed like with Waite for our low ball offer and Age.

 

[Chamber JJJ]

But we all know that St Kilda (SOS) will purposly bid on Ben to make us give up a 1st. We all know that.

No i doubt it then his son Jack would likely be a last list change a year before likely moved off. The club doing a O'Brien paying him out on his last year so we take a extra spot in rookie draft. It would be insane move by him and his son would be angry i feel not seeing if he could survive list spot and new contract.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Possibly not a priority for us but Angus Clarke is not talked up as much around here but has AFL traits and potential.... another one I reckon ends up higher rated than where he is picked.

Edit: has good wheels too

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Bo Allan, Jobe Shanahan, Tobie Travaglia, Taj Hotton and Xavier Lindsay would all be taken before Joe Berry. I doubt club would take a small forward as all above maybe Jobe Shanahan less likely would be capable playing AFL first year. Joe Berry would likely be a while.

And you know this how?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

AFL Draft: Your club's biggest need in the deepest draft pool ever

What list holes does your club need to fill at the 2024 AFL Draft? When is it? Which picks does your club have? Jasper Chellappah takes a look at the state of play ahead of one of the deepest draft crops in recent memory.

www.espn.com.au

 

[Coona Blues]

AFL Draft: Your club's biggest need in the deepest draft pool ever

What list holes does your club need to fill at the 2024 AFL Draft? When is it? Which picks does your club have? Jasper Chellappah takes a look at the state of play ahead of one of the deepest draft crops in recent memory.

www.espn.com.au

Have always discounted the ESPN offering with Nightmare, but the new bloke seems to have a few clues. Nice piece of work mostly.

 

[Stamos]

But we all know that St Kilda (SOS) will purposly bid on Ben to make us give up a 1st. We all know that.

They have pick 7. If they waste that bidding on Ben (they won’t), we let them have him.

 

[Stamos]

I don't think we got the points if we take the 2 picks before him and some club bid on him next that pick wipes 62,65 and 69 points and is still short using some of next year 1st pick points dropping pick lower. We also Lose Luke Camporeale if someone pick him late.

Ben seems to rated in the 25-35 range, more towards the back end of that. And F/S generally get bid a bit later.

If we can get our 2nd ahead of a bid, we’d only need another late 50s pick (Bot) to cover a bid at 31 with our other 4ths.

Lucas would then need to be bid on at 55 at the very latest to require us to use any points. Plus, after the Ashcroft, Lombard and Koko picks, all our late picks will come in a bit for more points.

I don’t think points is going to be a big issue for us.

 

[DangerousD]

I don't think we got the points if we take the 2 picks before him and some club bid on him next that pick wipes 62,65 and 69 points and is still short using some of next year 1st pick points dropping pick lower. We also Lose Luke Camporeale if someone pick him late.

He’s currently rated outside the top 30 and you’re assuming we don’t bring in any extra points via trade, currently looking like Carrol, Owies and Martin will go.

They probably get us a 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

Points aren’t an issue

 

[DangerousD]

But we all know that St Kilda (SOS) will purposly bid on Ben to make us give up a 1st. We all know that.

Then don’t take him

 

[TENACIOUS]

Still need the points say if some nut took Ben at 19 we be using our pick 31 points and points from later picks to equal those points minus 20% off pick 19. We need to find a descent pick of points trading a player so this is why i think Owies yet to sign. I think if he leaves we will get decent pick well i hope so or we get screwed like with Waite for our low ball offer and Age.

I’ve no idea on players in this draft.
However, just on logic..

If we don’t rate him at pick 19, the bidding club can have him at pick 19…

Why would we overpay for a Ben just because he’s a FS. Projects to be a mid-late second/ third round pick..

I feel for the Campo boys, many on here have them as our future, really hope they are. Reality is they have as much chance of making it as any other player drafted in their range…

 

[Coona Blues]

Ben seems to rated in the 25-35 range, more towards the back end of that. And F/S generally get bid a bit later.

If we can get our 2nd ahead of a bid, we’d only need another late 50s pick (Bot) to cover a bid at 31 with our other 5ths.

Lucas would then need to be bid on at 55 at the very latest to require us to use any points. Plus, after the Ashcroft, Lombard and Koko picks, all our late picks will come in a bit for more points.

I don’t think points is going to be a big issue for us.

I am sure some here would be aghast at what I suggest, but we will absolutely be insuring we get two picks before Ben’s bid. I am hopeful, not confident that we could raise some draft capital with Owies and Carroll to add to our second rounder to move up to say a low twenties pick.

If we cannot get there by other means, perhaps we pool our picks (first and second) to trade for two decent late first early seconds if we go out as seeded and keep 11 or 12 ish. For instance Sydney currently have 18 and 19 which for mine, in a deep draft may be more valuable than 11 and 31 ish. Thinking 11, 12 is likely the range for the Jobe Shanahan, Harry Armstrong or touted mids if the keys rise, perhaps a Travaglia or Allan who are certainly not bad options. However we need that KPD option more than anything else. We have been tenuously linked to Dattoli 18 and 19 would guarantee perhaps a Dattoli and O’FARRELL combo. For mine, I would be happy enough with a Harry Oliver and CLANCY DENNIS combo. I capitalise who I think are the best two KPD options outside of Trainor who could go as high as 2. They probably take a couple of years to get going, so ideally we find a stop gap with a rookie pick or rely on Kemp and Young while possibly/probably trading in an undersized Haynes for a year or two and some possibility Lemmey steps up.

I love Xavier Lindsay and like Berry a lot. Travaglia would be a great piece and Allan is a bit each way defender and midfielder. Berry may slip a little or someone could reach in the current climate. They all likely end up 10-18 range so would probably require our first. I am rather flexible in thinking where we use our first, but am adamant we need the right pick for our future KPD prospect.

 

[Stamos]

Just on points, our current 4ths (before they come in) could match a bid at 39, or be 6 points short of a bid at 38.

If Dogs lose to Hawks this week it would be better.

 

[Coops93]

I think we've seen the trend of small forwards becoming more and more key to teams success lately. I'm still concerned about our small forward set up, as well as 3rd tall fwiw, but I'd like us to get a highly rated small if it's possible.

Tall forwards in September don't have the impact like they used to, and if anything we're overinvested in that spot, we really need to balance it out with some elite small forward talent. Motlop is slow, heavily one footed and doesn't have a big impact, Durdin seems to get lost, Owies is more a 3rd lead up marking type than genuine crumber - and is also OOC, Fogarty is a good role playing small but not an offensive threat. Nothing there really to get excited about.

Moir could have an impact as a medium sized player which would be excellent, but an elite small is high on my list.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I think we've seen the trend of small forwards becoming more and more key to teams success lately. I'm still concerned about our small forward set up, as well as 3rd tall fwiw, but I'd like us to get a highly rated small if it's possible.

Tall forwards in September don't have the impact like they used to, and if anything we're overinvested in that spot, we really need to balance it out with some elite small forward talent. Motlop is slow, heavily one footed and doesn't have a big impact, Durdin seems to get lost, Owies is more a 3rd lead up marking type than genuine crumber - and is also OOC, Fogarty is a good role playing small but not an offensive threat. Nothing there really to get excited about.

Moir could have an impact as a medium sized player which would be excellent, but an elite small is high on my list.

Seems nearly all the best teams are completely stacked with top end small forwards/half forwards or if they are lacking a couple of those they make up for it with mids who hit the scoreboard every week like Sydney with Heeney and Warner or Port with Rozee, Butters and JHF

Syd - Papley, Wicks, Hayward

Bris - Cameron, Bailey, Rayner, Lohmann

GWS - Daniels, Bedford, Greene, Jones

Geel - Stengle, Miers, Close, Henry, Dempsey

Hawks - Moore, MacDonald, Ginnivan, Watson, Bruest


Then there's us...
Owies, Motlop, Durdin, Fogarty, Williams



Mature 2nd KPD the number 1 priority via trade for me still but fixing the small forward issue should be a hot #2

 

[Coops93]

Seems nearly all the best teams are completely stacked with top end small forwards/half forwards or if they are lacking a couple of those they make up for it with mids who hit the scoreboard every week like Sydney with Heeney and Warner or Port with Rozee, Butters and JHF

Syd - Papley, Wicks, Hayward

Bris - Cameron, Bailey, Rayner, Lohmann

GWS - Daniels, Bedford, Greene, Jones

Geel - Stengle, Miers, Close, Henry, Dempsey

Hawks - Moore, MacDonald, Ginnivan, Watson, Bruest


Then there's us...
Owies, Motlop, Durdin, Fogarty, Williams



Mature 2nd KPD the number 1 priority via trade for me still but fixing the small forward issue should be a hot #2

Sydney are the best team in the comp over the season and they have arguably the worst key forward set up in the comp. Geelong got better after one key forward went out, and their other key forward basically plays as a wingman half the game. Hawks key forward is a 3 club journeyman. Brisbane form has seemingly improved once their 2nd key tall went back then got injured, leaving them with 1.

The game has moved past the big key pillar up forward being the solution to a degree.

 

[Coona Blues]

I think we've seen the trend of small forwards becoming more and more key to teams success lately. I'm still concerned about our small forward set up, as well as 3rd tall fwiw, but I'd like us to get a highly rated small if it's possible.

Tall forwards in September don't have the impact like they used to, and if anything we're overinvested in that spot, we really need to balance it out with some elite small forward talent. Motlop is slow, heavily one footed and doesn't have a big impact, Durdin seems to get lost, Owies is more a 3rd lead up marking type than genuine crumber - and is also OOC, Fogarty is a good role playing small but not an offensive threat. Nothing there really to get excited about.

Moir could have an impact as a medium sized player which would be excellent, but an elite small is high on my list.

I tend to agree, but doubt the club is planning to spend our first on a small forward. We have a number of needs which as supporters we have different thoughts on priority.

There is plenty to say Berry is an outstanding prospect and has good connection and some midfield traits. I certainly won’t be upset if we call his name, PROVIDING, we get a KPD with our second pick. It is possible to get decent smalls with late or rookie picks, as indeed it is with tall defenders. I would not be against Will White or similar as a rookie followed by Tyson Gresham next year. We aren’t going down the path of playing four or five prominent small forwards while Harry an Charlie are patrolling our forward line.

If Kempy stays forward, we add another bow, and I am now confident as opposed to hopeful, that Ashton Moir will realise his potential next season adding to our forward mix. Granted I rate Williams and Durdin as our best two small forwards when fit and we need an off season targeting their well being. Motlop is only “slow” when defending and needs a rocket, if we aren’t confident he will step up, perhaps we trade him back to his NGA origins at Freo and do grab Berry early, given Williams isn’t getting any younger. The work of prime Fogarty and Cottrell has also come to be undersold as the season progressed. We aren’t bereft of decent smalls to do a job.

There are absolutely two sides to the debate. I reiterate, I am open minded provided we get our KPD, ideally a second throw at the stumps in the rookie draft such as 2023 VIC Metro Cristian Mardini on our VFL list and playing as an overager after injury had sidelined him or a journeyman to replace Nigel.