Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Stamos]

Sydney are the best team in the comp over the season and they have arguably the worst key forward set up in the comp. Geelong got better after one key forward went out, and their other key forward basically plays as a wingman half the game. Hawks key forward is a 3 club journeyman. Brisbane form has seemingly improved once their 2nd key tall went back then got injured, leaving them with 1.

The game has moved past the big key pillar up forward being the solution to a degree.

Geelong only improved with Hawkins going out because he is completely broken. They were dominant 2 years ago when he was fit. Dogs are the second highest scoring team, stacked with tall forwards.

We’re 4th for scoring, 20 points behind the Dogs, 13 points behind the Cats.
And then you factor in the games that H and Charlie missed, and Charlie playing injured, and also the lack of consistency of any of our small and half forwards, all of Martin, Cunners, Fog, Durdin, Motlop, Cottrell, Williams missing stretches of footy.

Although I agree that we need to add some real pace into our forward half, our forward line is actually functioning pretty well. There is huge room for improvement, but it’s defence across the field which saw us well below where we should be.

 

[Coona Blues]

Seems nearly all the best teams are completely stacked with top end small forwards/half forwards or if they are lacking a couple of those they make up for it with mids who hit the scoreboard every week like Sydney with Heeney and Warner or Port with Rozee, Butters and JHF

Syd - Papley, Wicks, Hayward

Bris - Cameron, Bailey, Rayner, Lohmann

GWS - Daniels, Bedford, Greene, Jones

Geel - Stengle, Miers, Close, Henry, Dempsey

Hawks - Moore, MacDonald, Ginnivan, Watson, Bruest


Then there's us...
Owies, Motlop, Durdin, Fogarty, Williams



Mature 2nd KPD the number 1 priority via trade for me still but fixing the small forward issue should be a hot #2

A bit of license with some of those
Hayward a medium. They (Sydney) do not play a small forward model like you suggest.
Brisbane play more mediums or taller Rayner and Lohmann ain’t small
Similar Henry and Demosey aren’t smalls, happily give you Stengle, Miers and Close who work well beside a single tall and roaming CHF perhaps the closest or our set up.
GWS and Hawthorn certainly the poster boys for small forward pressure and impact. Hawks lack a genuine tall target, while Giants have had a career year from Hogan.

You forgot Fantasia and on other criteria used Elijah, plenty of evidence Moir joins the list too.

I do agree there is plenty of argument to beef up our small brigade.

Perhaps as an exercise, you go back and look at the origins of those you have named, plenty of late picks in that group.

You omitted Bedford as well.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Sydney are the best team in the comp over the season and they have arguably the worst key forward set up in the comp. Geelong got better after one key forward went out, and their other key forward basically plays as a wingman half the game. Hawks key forward is a 3 club journeyman. Brisbane form has seemingly improved once their 2nd key tall went back then got injured, leaving them with 1.

The game has moved past the big key pillar up forward being the solution to a degree.

I don't think it's necessarily moved past them, I think it's just moved to quality small/half forwards being equally as important to a teams success but far easier to find a multitude of via trade and draft.

Both Harry and Charlie are absolutely elite at what they do and have won us plenty of games of their own boots... I think it's just become more apparent over the last 7-8 years that the way to unlock good KPFs full potential is to surround them with high quality half forwards who can impact up the ground and rapidly transition the ball so they can create as many one on one opportunities for those KPFs or sometimes even a hybrid type player such as Heeney, Petracca, Dusty etc who can essentially play as a small KPF due to their athletic talents.

The best teams are all trying to move away from the long bomb to a pack inside a flooded forward 50, it's just sort of ironic that the best team we've assembled in 20 odd years is practically built for that style of play.

Id like to see us embrace the change in tact over the next 3-4 drafts where i see us being very lucky to have some highly rated father sons who fit that bill coming in.

 

[Coops93]

I don't think it's necessarily moved past them, I think it's just moved to quality small/half forwards being equally as important to a teams success but far easier to find a multitude of via trade and draft.

Both Harry and Charlie are absolutely elite at what they do and have won us plenty of games of their own boots... I think it's just become more apparent over the last 7-8 years that the way to unlock good KPFs full potential is to surround them with high quality half forwards who can impact up the ground and rapidly transition the ball so they can create as many one on one opportunities for those KPFs or sometimes even a hybrid type player such as Heeney, Petracca, Dusty etc who can essentially play as a small KPF due to their athletic talents.

Moving past was perhaps the wrong way to put it, but the influence from them has diminished and the influence of smalls has increased massively.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Moving past was perhaps the wrong way to put it, but the influence from them has diminished and the influence of smalls has increased massively.

Yes I agree with that. Luckily for us we still have 5-6 years left of being in the great position of having elite KPPs at either end of the field.

Get the best out of them while we still have them, then worry about what we do without them when it's time to.

 

[DangerousD]

I am sure some here would be aghast at what I suggest, but we will absolutely be insuring we get two picks before Ben’s bid. I am hopeful, not confident that we could raise some draft capital with Owies and Carroll to add to our second rounder to move up to say a low twenties pick.

If we cannot get there by other means, perhaps we pool our picks (first and second) to trade for two decent late first early seconds if we go out as seeded and keep 11 or 12 ish. For instance Sydney currently have 18 and 19 which for mine, in a deep draft may be more valuable than 11 and 31 ish. Thinking 11, 12 is likely the range for the Jobe Shanahan, Harry Armstrong or touted mids if the keys rise, perhaps a Travaglia or Allan who are certainly not bad options. However we need that KPD option more than anything else. We have been tenuously linked to Dattoli 18 and 19 would guarantee perhaps a Dattoli and O’FARRELL combo. For mine, I would be happy enough with a Harry Oliver and CLANCY DENNIS combo. I capitalise who I think are the best two KPD options outside of Trainor who could go as high as 2. They probably take a couple of years to get going, so ideally we find a stop gap with a rookie pick or rely on Kemp and Young while possibly/probably trading in an undersized Haynes for a year or two and some possibility Lemmey steps up.

I love Xavier Lindsay and like Berry a lot. Travaglia would be a great piece and Allan is a bit each way defender and midfielder. Berry may slip a little or someone could reach in the current climate. They all likely end up 10-18 range so would probably require our first. I am rather flexible in thinking where we use our first, but am adamant we need the right pick for our future KPD prospect.

Last year most were pretty clear, there was a big drop in quality outside the top 10, if that drop isn’t there this year, trade down and pick up some extra picks.

No idea how far you could trade down before it became too risky, but if there’s a few KPD available around pick 20, we could get two picks around that range without giving up much more than our 1st.

 

[DangerousD]

Sydney are the best team in the comp over the season and they have arguably the worst key forward set up in the comp. Geelong got better after one key forward went out, and their other key forward basically plays as a wingman half the game. Hawks key forward is a 3 club journeyman. Brisbane form has seemingly improved once their 2nd key tall went back then got injured, leaving them with 1.

The game has moved past the big key pillar up forward being the solution to a degree.

I’d love for Charlie and Harry to get on their bike more, hopefully it hasn’t happened with Charlie due to injury but neither player seem to get many easy possessions.

I’m also hopeful Harry spends more time building his ruck and midfield craft over the offseason.

 

[DangerousD]

I tend to agree, but doubt the club is planning to spend our first on a small forward. We have a number of needs which as supporters we have different thoughts on priority.

There is plenty to say Berry is an outstanding prospect and has good connection and some midfield traits. I certainly won’t be upset if we call his name, PROVIDING, we get a KPD with our second pick. It is possible to get decent smalls with late or rookie picks, as indeed it is with tall defenders. I would not be against Will White or similar as a rookie followed by Tyson Gresham next year. We aren’t going down the path of playing four or five prominent small forwards while Harry an Charlie are patrolling our forward line.

If Kempy stays forward, we add another bow, and I am now confident as opposed to hopeful, that Ashton Moir will realise his potential next season adding to our forward mix. Granted I rate Williams and Durdin as our best two small forwards when fit and we need an off season targeting their well being. Motlop is only “slow” when defending and needs a rocket, if we aren’t confident he will step up, perhaps we trade him back to his NGA origins at Freo and do grab Berry early, given Williams isn’t getting any younger. The work of prime Fogarty and Cottrell has also come to be undersold as the season progressed. We aren’t bereft of decent smalls to do a job.

There are absolutely two sides to the debate. I reiterate, I am open minded provided we get our KPD, ideally a second throw at the stumps in the rookie draft such as 2023 VIC Metro Cristian Mardini on our VFL list and playing as an overager after injury had sidelined him or a journeyman to replace Nigel.

How did Mardini go this year?

 

[DangerousD]

Geelong only improved with Hawkins going out because he is completely broken. They were dominant 2 years ago when he was fit. Dogs are the second highest scoring team, stacked with tall forwards.

We’re 4th for scoring, 20 points behind the Dogs, 13 points behind the Cats.
And then you factor in the games that H and Charlie missed, and Charlie playing injured, and also the lack of consistency of any of our small and half forwards, all of Martin, Cunners, Fog, Durdin, Motlop, Cottrell, Williams missing stretches of footy.

Although I agree that we need to add some real pace into our forward half, our forward line is actually functioning pretty well. There is huge room for improvement, but it’s defence across the field which saw us well below where we should be.

The Dogs have tall forwards, really deep midfield options and good small forward options, would you agree they are pretty weak at the back though?

I’d love another KPD but I still think by doing that, you’re treating a symptom and not a cause.

Add more nimble and faster mids and small medium forwards and you limit the supply and speed the ball goes to defence.

Even the Hawks i was told don’t have a defender over 194cm, although they have specifically targeted that area.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

I picked Armstrong but I'd like to see some combine results to help me out a little.

 

[TENACIOUS]

Is this draft better than next years?

Could we go all in on this draft?
Trading in 2x further firsts is plausible.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Is this draft better than next years?

Could we go all in on this draft?
Trading in 2x further firsts is plausible.

At this stage next year's draft looks relatively weak imo. Can never count a crop out in their underage year but certainly not many standouts at this point in time.

 

[Coona Blues]

How did Mardini go this year?

Didn’t get started until May 25 playing for Norther Knights in CTL, then in June 16 before a three games over four weekblock late June through July. Including 26 disposal game and earned a Team of the Week nomination.

Seems to have played a four senior games at South Morang among the Coates League games, kicking goals in three , so playing a different role. Throw in a single under 19 game for South Morang where he kicked six goals after the senior games and before returning to the Northern Knights for finals the following week.

That program smacks of being managed by someone to mix his games V boys and men over a couple of months. My extrapolation given that he is VFL listed with us, is we most had a hand in where he played his matches.

Might be 1+1=3, but I have my suspicions. Was a Vic Metro key defender, Northern Knights captain in ‘23 and a mad Blues supporter.

Rookie please. (King of wishful thinking)

 

[Ninja Worrier]

That's some next level research coona

 

[LemmingMaster]

But we all know that St Kilda (SOS) will purposly bid on Ben to make us give up a 1st. We all know that.

Want to make a bet he does not bid on Ben?

 

[Kruezing]

Didn’t get started until May 25 playing for Norther Knights in CTL, then in June 16 before a three games over four weekblock late June through July. Including 26 disposal game and earned a Team of the Week nomination.

Seems to have played a four senior games at South Morang among the Coates League games, kicking goals in three , so playing a different role. Throw in a single under 19 game for South Morang where he kicked six goals after the senior games and before returning to the Northern Knights for finals the following week.

That program smacks of being managed by someone to mix his games V boys and men over a couple of months. My extrapolation given that he is VFL listed with us, is we most had a hand in where he played his matches.

Might be 1+1=3, but I have my suspicions. Was a Vic Metro key defender, Northern Knights captain in ‘23 and a mad Blues supporter.

Rookie please. (King of wishful thinking)

we’re praying my friend

 

[Ninja Worrier]

If we don't take a small forward with our first two picks Rhys Unwin may be worth a shot as a rookie pick if he makes it to there.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

If we don't take a small forward with our first two picks Rhys Unwin may be worth a shot as a rookie pick if he makes it to there.

If we don't take Berry or Hotton with our first pick just nuke the joint and call it a day.

Cats smalls absolutely obliterating Port tonight. Complete masterclass.

 

[macky99]

If we don't take Berry or Hotton with our first pick just nuke the joint and call it a day.

Cats smalls absolutely obliterating Port tonight. Complete masterclass.

lnteresting thing is most of Geelong's smalls are not early draft picks, they are just elite at finding players.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

lnteresting thing is most of Geelong's smalls are not early draft picks, they are just elite at finding players.

Yeah, but we aren't Geelong.

Best small forward in the draft, just take him and move on from this nightmare of watching the fumble brigade squander opportunity after opportunity crumbing to the best KPF pairing in the comp.

Miers alone is better than our entire small forward roster combined

 

[macky99]

Yeah, but we aren't Geelong.

Best small forward in the draft, just take him and move on from this nightmare of watching the fumble brigade squander opportunity after opportunity crumbing to the best KPF pairing in the comp.

Miers alone is better than our entire small forward roster combined

Pretty sure they are out there, this draft no different players in the 30-40 range.
Maybe we should headhunt some of the Cats talent scouts.

 

[BRADLESTICKS]

If we don't take Berry or Hotton with our first pick just nuke the joint and call it a day.

Cats smalls absolutely obliterating Port tonight. Complete masterclass.

Cats smalls did kill them tonight and have been great all season but for a counter argument what did those players cost the cats at the draft.

Mires pick 57
Stengel delisted free agent
Close rookie pick 14
Mannagh mature age 27 year old overlooked multiple times.

That tells me good recruiters can find quality smalls late in drafts without using first round picks.

 

[Coops93]

Tonight just showing again how important smalls are inside 50 these days. Even the key forward had his impact crumbing.

We need to find a couple.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Cats smalls did kill them tonight and have been great all season but for a counter argument what did those players cost the cats at the draft.

Mires pick 57
Stengel delisted free agent
Close rookie pick 14
Mannagh mature age 27 year old overlooked multiple times.

That tells me good recruiters can find quality smalls late in drafts without using first round picks.

There's always going to be exceptions to the rule and Geelong are basically ground 0 for them for whatever reason... To counter that I'd ask who was the last highly rated small forward to be a bust in the draft?

Watson
Rachele
Pickett
Weightman
Henry
Rankine
Jones
Higgins

Berry is right up there with any of them in terms of talent and projecting to the next level. We can piss fart around trying to find some quality small forwards with rookie picks and picks in the 50s or we can take the proven gun and enjoy the ride.

 

[Blueyourmyboy!!]

I picked Armstrong but I'd like to see some combine results to help me out a little.

Armstrong will be a gun absolutely no doubt about it.