Analysis 2024 National Draft

[DangerousD]

I think moving ahead of Ben's pick will be possible at this stage. The question is whether it'll be worthwhile.

It's likely we have to massively overpay just to move up a few spots. Compared to the overs we get if we trade our pick into next year. And it probably still doesn't get us into the top 10 where blue chip players are.

We would really need to like the player available.

The Dogs trade last year is a good point of reference.

They ended up with pick 6 and took Croft with 15, they then used two 3rd rounders and a 4th.

This year they still hold a 2nd and 3rd.

 

[marcmurphy3]

We are in our window with at max 3-4 years left of good footy from a range of our older players. Trading into next years draft is lunacy.

Not really. Say for example we trade Pick 15 for Pick 25, Pick 40 and an F2. Overs but realistic given what's clubs pay to trade into the 1st round.

Add that the our existing 2nd rounder (say pick 33) and we'd have enough points to cover both campo bids, plus probably still get another pick in the 2nd round somewhere.

Then next year we have our 1st and two 2nds to either trade or go hard at the draft.

Now lets compare that to trading forward. Probably have to trade 15 and F1 to get up to pick 10. Might get an F3 or something back if we are lucky.

Then we need to manufacture a way to turn pick 33 into both Campos. Would probably have to wipe ourselves out of the next 2 drafts to do so.

So we get the pick 10, both Campos and that'll pretty much be it for the next 2 years. No trade currency either.

It's similar to what the Dogs did last year but they didn't finish well so were able to push up high to get Sanders. I doubt we can. We'll be throwing all our chips on the table to get a pick in the range we took O.Hollands.

I reckon the former approach is much more balanced and likely to lead to sustainable success.

Unless an absolute gun happens to slip in the draft.

 

[marcmurphy3]

The Dogs trade last year is a good point of reference.

They ended up with pick 6 and took Croft with 15, they then used two 3rd rounders and a 4th.

This year they still hold a 2nd and 3rd.

Bulldogs traded pick 10, 17 and F1 for 4 with some 3rds coming back.

I think that shows how hard it is to trade up, not the other way round.

 

[bluebaggerjuls]

afl yet to rule out making changes to father son bidding this season according to Laura Kane. Surely you couldn't change the rules now

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I’m sorry but if Brisbane can trade a heap of junk to get enough points for pick1 and pick 15 whilst finishing top 4, then we can trade up 3 spots, it’s not hard.

GC found points for pick 3, 9, 14, 26 last season.

The Dogs last year traded up from 10 to 6 to get Sanders, then Croft at 15.

We are talking about a late first round rated player and a mid second round rated player and people are talking about going in to deficit, it’s madness.

If all these other clubs can trade up a lot and find lots of points and we can’t, then Austin isn’t cut out for the job

It’s easy to find points, it’s hard to find points while moving up in the draft. You can do it but you overpay to do so.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

We can’t take in any more picks than list spots, so to get in a first rounder before the Campos and then have enough points for the two of them in 4-5 picks is not as easy as it sounds, especially if a bid comes earlier than expected. Clubs will know this just like we knew Freo had their hands tied when we bid on Henry.

We might need to go into a deficit in 2025.

Talk with clubs about doing it on the night like every other club does to get the gazillion useless picks to pick up the guns with.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Bulldogs traded pick 10, 17 and F1 for 4 with some 3rds coming back.

I think that shows how hard it is to trade up, not the other way round.

Yep Sanders pretty much cost three first round picks. If you are going to spend that much I’d prefer to target someone like Bolton or similar.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Yep Sanders pretty much cost three first round picks. If you are going to spend that much I’d prefer to target someone like Bolton or similar.

Right now it's looking like Pick 10 2023, Pick 17 2023 and Pick 8 2024 for Pick 4 2023

 

[The Return of the Paf]

We are in our window with at max 3-4 years left of good footy from a range of our older players. Trading into next years draft is lunacy.

Not as loony as recruiting as if we are guaranteed a premiership. With Tassie coming in and our general lack of quality younger players coming through, do we really want a huge uphill battle to rebuild after that period is over (particularly if we are not successful at winning a flag)?

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

I’m sorry but if Brisbane can trade a heap of junk to get enough points for pick1 and pick 15 whilst finishing top 4, then we can trade up 3 spots, it’s not hard.

GC found points for pick 3, 9, 14, 26 last season.

The Dogs last year traded up from 10 to 6 to get Sanders, then Croft at 15.

We are talking about a late first round rated player and a mid second round rated player and people are talking about going in to deficit, it’s madness.

If all these other clubs can trade up a lot and find lots of points and we can’t, then Austin isn’t cut out for the job

GC started with pick 4 which makes it easier, we will have 14-18 and a F1 that projects to be similar, and as mentioned above the Dogs coughed up three firsts to get Sanders. They went into the draft with 7 free list spots which we just won’t be doing.

A slight deficit wouldn’t be the end of the world.

 

[RAPPA]

We'll be ok - we'll just package Marchy and Cuningham for a first and second round pick.

 

[ferrisb]

We'll be ok - we'll just package Marchy and Cuningham for a first and second round pick.

I assume you mean waiting room numbers at the doctor's office...

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

The worst thing for the Dogs is that he is likely to get an offer from Tassie that he can’t refuse.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Bulldogs traded pick 10, 17 and F1 for 4 with some 3rds coming back.

I think that shows how hard it is to trade up, not the other way round.

Yep, you nailed it. I have zero doubt that our 1st round pick will be on the table at the end of the year, unless the Campos completely fall off the cliff...which is extremely unlikely. You'd imagine that a fair bit will depend upon their performance in the last half of the season, and especially during the carnival.

Either way, we could sell the farm to move up a few spots, but if another club still makes a bid before our 1st rounder, we either miss out on a high draft pick or one of the twins - so it becomes an awful trade.

For mine, I could see us trying to trade in a player like Konstanty or Stone with our 1st on the table, and some spare change coming back for points. Either that or trading down for points and a future 2nd.

 

[DangerousD]

Now lets compare that to trading forward. Probably have to trade 15 and F1 to get up to pick 10. Might get an F3 or something back if we are lucky.

Then we need to manufacture a way to turn pick 33 into both Campos. Would probably have to wipe ourselves out of the next 2 drafts to do so.

What are you basing this on though?

ADE gave 11, 15 and F2 and got back 8 and 17.

So why would 15 and a F1 only get us to 10 and an F3?

Why would the Campos who on current rankings who would cost us less than 1500 points after discount take us out of the next two drafts? Pick 33 is worth 563 and we have two 4th rounders.

For pick 24 (785) last year GC paid roughly 1200 points.

For pick 38 (465) last year GC paid 589 points.

If other clubs can sell second and third round picks for excess points, there’s no reason we can’t

 

[DangerousD]

Bulldogs traded pick 10, 17 and F1 for 4 with some 3rds coming back.

I think that shows how hard it is to trade up, not the other way round.

It’s a recent point of reference to use, which allowed them to grab a very high pick and then pay for Croft at 15.

It shows to get to the pointy end of the draft you have to cough up.

Another good example is Ade trading 11, 15 and F2 for 8 and 17 last season, that’s not a huge price.

 

[Sector 7G]

Freo have a heap of picks in the teens. Wonder if they will bid on BC in payback for SOS bidding on Henry. If the fan base had anything to do with it they would.

 

[DangerousD]

It’s easy to find points, it’s hard to find points while moving up in the draft. You can do it but you overpay to do so.

I think what’s getting lost in the discussion is, we don’t need to trade up to pick 5 or so, we just need to trade up to get ahead of a bid, at the moment Lucas is rated 16-20 or so.

Even if we win the GF, that’s only trading up a few spots.

 

[DangerousD]

Right now it's looking like Pick 10 2023, Pick 17 2023 and Pick 8 2024 for Pick 4 2023

Well it’s not, as you’ve left out the picks they got back, the pick they then used to bring in Harmes and the points they used to grab Croft (pick 15)

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

afl yet to rule out making changes to father son bidding this season according to Laura Kane. Surely you couldn't change the rules now

Cal Twomey on Gettable says he's expecting changes to the bidding system and DVI this year as part of the AFL review.......ouch

 

[DangerousD]

When assessing where do people have Ben and Lucas?

I’ve gone 16 and 26 which I think is generous.

That’s 1326 points after discount, it’s not much

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Cal Twomey on Gettable says he's expecting changes to the bidding system and DVI this year as part of the AFL review.......ouch

I'd be amazed if they change the rules to impact the current year - would have thought they announce a change this year to impact the 2025 draft.

 

[Jimmae]

Ahhh academies... gotta love em



What a freak show.

He's a bit heavy footed, will need to lean down to perform well at the next level. IMO Reid is having the same problem at the moment despite being a freak and a star.

This kid reminds me of how everyone was hooping and hollering about Nick Shipley for GWS. I liked him, but nowhere near the early ratings, and in the end he never worked to get himself to a respectable weight to be mobile enough as a clearance mid.

To be clear, he's better than Shipley, but he's got some work to do.

Yep, you nailed it. I have zero doubt that our 1st round pick will be on the table at the end of the year, unless the Campos completely fall off the cliff...which is extremely unlikely. You'd imagine that a fair bit will depend upon their performance in the last half of the season, and especially during the carnival.

Either way, we could sell the farm to move up a few spots, but if another club still makes a bid before our 1st rounder, we either miss out on a high draft pick or one of the twins - so it becomes an awful trade.

For mine, I could see us trying to trade in a player like Konstanty or Stone with our 1st on the table, and some spare change coming back for points. Either that or trading down for points and a future 2nd.

Every draft pool is different, and trades will be assessed based upon that. The points system is a tool for getting a sense of value.

Chances are we may trade down the further we go up the ladder, but if the talent pool is such that we don't need to give up a whole lot to get someone we like in that 2nd tier of talent, we should probably go for it.

 

[ferrisb]

I see three facts around all this 'trading picks around Campo bids'.

1) You overpay to move up the order (conversely, you get 'paid' overs to slide)
2) You overpay to bring forward picks (teams value current year picks well above next year's)
3) Bids may come after our first. We may not know for sure until the night

So, what should we do about that?

1) Moving up ahead of bids will be costly. Instead of overpaying to move from 15 to 10. I'd rather someone overpay us to move from 25 to 15.

2) If we're worried about our first getting eaten up, a team will very likely overpay us with 2025 picks to get their hands on a 2024 1st. Teams that are desperate for a rebuild, grabbing a slider or need a 1st for a trade could very easily pay us a 2025 1st AND 2nd for our 2024 first. And that 2025 1st alone could very easily be better than our 2024 1st.

3) Imagine paying overs to move up ahead of bids and then no-one bids on the Campos until after where our 1st pick would have been. What a waste. I mean sure, an early pick (5-10) is really nice, but will cost us a fortune. Why do costly deals when we don't need to? You can trade picks after a bid comes in. So why jump the gun? Can very easily sit back and wait to see IF we need to trade picks.

TL;DR - If we are confident a Campo bid will come before our pick, we should trade down or out to next year, not trade up. If we are not sure, we should simply wait til draft night, with some contingencies in place.

 

[Christou2Kouta]

I posted this after the trade period last year (which is like pulling teeth), if the AFL are truly interested in meaningfully reforming rules to help facilitate more equitable movement of players, and we don't spend weeks trying to get a player valued at pick 30 to a club that has picks 27 and 45 and doesn't want to give them away, here's my suggested plan.

Draft trade rules
Delete the rookie list. Increase list size and salary cap. End of season: all clubs assigned a number of draft points based on the ladder position. E.g. 18th = 4000 points, 17th = 3900 points… 1st = 2200 etc.

Player movement period 10 days
All uncontracted players are free to join the club of their choosing. Based on the average of their previous contract and their new contract, the club they go to forfeits a set number of points to the club they came from.
E.g. player with $400,000 p.a. contract average might be worth 400 points. Contracted players may be traded for players or agreed points allocations (including next year’s points)

Draft position allocation
At the end of the trade period, clubs are allocated draft positions based on the number of points they have. Team with max points (e.g. 5000) gets pick 1. (Removes 1000 points from their total).
Team with max points (e.g. 4500) gets pick 2. (Removes 950 points from their total).
And so on. A team that started with more than 1000 points than their nearest rival would get picks 1 & 2 in this scenario. Teams with the most points may have the chance to have multiple draft picks before teams with the fewest points.
Bottom teams may trade in multiple uncontracted players and not have high draft picks as a result.

Pick and point trade period
Once the draft order is complete, clubs may trade draft picks + future points to change order. Swaps can be made from one week before the draft and during the draft.

National draft
All uncontracted players who are not signed must enter the national draft to get selected by a club.
Top 20 picks get three three-year contract.
Picks 21-50 get two-year contract
Picks 51+ get minimum one-year contract with option for longer

Preseason signings
Clubs can invite players who had registered for the draft and not been selected to do preseasons with them to fill list spots/replace injured players.

International rookies
Clubs can sign two international players to their list.