Analysis 2024 National Draft

[TerryWallet]

Someone wake me up when you find a player with no flaws

It's the nature of the process. See all their attributes, then see all their flaws, talk up their traits, then point out they're not as good as 27yo superstars, nitpick this, see past that, then reverse the process, etc etc etc.

Not ragging on anybody. All fair dinkum views and opinions are great. Makes the next month interesting.

This is a great draft. We'll be getting a top notch player with a good chance at being elite.

Me personally, its Lalor then Draper for US. But can't lose at 3. FOS and Smith both suit us great as well.

 

[ianh]

The more I think about it, the more I hope Jagga slides to us because we can’t afford to mess this up.

+1.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

I think you're being very harsh here.

His handball is considered one of his poorer areas of disposal, which is seen particularly in his junior footy games where he has a tendency to loop it up to much, this game showed almost no errors with his handballs apart from arguably the inside 50 one that you highlight where he trips over his own feet after three bounces and running 50m at top sprint speed. I think that's an issue that can be easily resolved at AFL level with mental training on staying calm and confidence in his abilities.

He's let down by his team mates a number of times, including a dropped mark on an excellent kick inside 50m from one of the later free kicks and a handful or fumbles by players around stoppage when he's hit them with hands. You criticize his failure to complete positive inside entries when he's in good positions, but isn't the good position exactly what we need from a draftee. We can't control who their playing with, their team mates running patterns or ability. Put Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay in front of him and I suspect he'll have a lot more opportunities available to him, allowing him make the most out of the excellent positions he finds himself in due to his ball winning ability and speed.

Most importantly, his stoppage and burst can't be taught. He's show multiple instances of making 30-40m by foot, which is utterly critical in AFL. 30m by foot plus 40m kick gets over the back of a zone and is exactly what we need to add dynamism to our midfield.

He just looks so good.

Watching this it seems clear he wins the biggest battle - that being win the ball & burst into an attacking position, where he can/could use the ball effectively, catching a defence off guard.

There’s one instance he bursts from CHB & runs through the centre with blistering pace - then coughs it up by hand.

You can’t teach blistering pace, you can teach poise & how to use the time you have better.

A word in the ear, once your out, take your bloody time!

I think his rushed disposal will improve with experience & confidence.

Judd would be an amazing mentor for Sid.

 

[bmaurizio]

His kicking into the forward line is elite, something our team is in need of. His long raking left foot kicks seem to travel that bit further and find players on their own. He's also a good mark and can play forward which is a bonus. Will be a great pick up.

Agree Langford is the best of the 10 or so midfielders after Ashcroft & O’Sullivan. A pretty clear pick 3 ,good height 191cm , mark and kick, he’s footy IQ and nice forward craft, he’s a solid choice.

 

[TerryWallet]

Watching this it seems clear he wins the biggest battle - that being win the ball & burst into an attacking position, where he can/could use the ball effectively, catching a defence off guard.

There’s one instance he bursts from CHB & runs through the centre with blistering pace - then coughs it up by hand.

You can’t teach blistering pace, you can teach poise & how to use the time you have better.

A word in the ear, once your out, take your bloody time!

I think his rushed disposal will improve with experience & confidence.

Judd would be an amazing mentor for Sid.

Yep.

A rare combination of traits imo. That very rare electric power speed, to go with great accumulation, and great drive, competitiveness and CV. Neither Judd nor Danger's delivery skills were ever perfect. Especially at 17yo. He hasn't quite got their height, but then again, he's got Butters covered.

Super prospect.

 

[JustOneTime]

Nervous about FOS as well.

Top 3 pick we are talking here. FOS has low average stats this year and last year doesnt impress me that much. For top 3 you want to baseline 24/25+ average to warrant a top 3 pick for a midfielder type.

Body doesnt look like it has elite attributes. Just looks like a good user that will again have to step up to a significant weight division and hope his smarts hold up. Looks risky.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Do you have the link ODN?

No, it was an opposition forum somewhere.

24/3 Coates Round 1 - 15 disposals 4 tackles 5 I50s Broken thumb

AFL Academy Game 2 vs Dogs - 13 disposals Finger

7/7 Champs Rd 7 -
14/7 Champs Rd 8 - Minor Hip and Calf

11/8 VFL Round 20 vs Sandringham

24/8 Coates Round 19 - 18 disposals In the bests 3 goals


8/9 Coates Finals Rd 2 - 16 disposals
15/9 Coates Finals Rd 3 - 20 disposals 2 goals in the bests

So 4 Coates League games, 2 Under 19 Championships games, 1 AFL Academy game, 1 VFL game. It's not a lot of football. I don't know the details of some of those injuries, but the minor calf issue is the only soft tissue injury. Hip, thumb and finger are just things that happen.

I've watched all of his footage from these games, so that's just every play he impacts by way of tackle, possession, disposal. I haven't watched the full games to see where he is stationed when he isn't involved in the play.

Observations:

1. Super excited about the way he moves. He gaps opponents in those first few metres and his running action is sexy AFL in footy terms.

2. Great leap, really good mark overhead. In one he comes from 3 deep. 2nd at the combine for running vertical leap. He is going to impact inside forward 50.

3. Penetrating kick. Only 1 major scrubber that I identified, but he often puts it to a teammate's advantage even when they are in a tight 1 on 1.

4. Cripps like vision and hands getting the ball off in tackles. He looks to take the tackler on always, but gives off when that option closes, and rarely misses a handball target within 360 degrees.

5. The feeling that he gets caught with the ball too much, is either a perception thing from limited viewing or it's a 2023 thing, because there is not a lot of that in the 2024 vision, and when there is, he is taking them on. I can't fault the mindset.

6. He is vice captain at Coates League level, with Jagga Smith his captain. Their combination from centre bounces is breathtaking.

7. Doesn't mind taking a hit. Puts his body on the line constantly, and looks physically competitive against players his own age.

8. Not as much time in the VFL and Academy games, but still accelerates away from stoppages. Things don't look quite as fluent as they do in the Champs or Coates Leagues, as he is obviously not used to playing with these teammates, and he is playing against adults.

9. Really has characteristics that we need and will play year 1. Expect glimpses building up to a decent body of work towards the end of the year as he gets used to the pace and system.

 

[windows1]

I just think I deserve more credit for putting up with you nuffies for nearly 20 years.

Especially you Jim you old fart.

 

[macky99]

The more I think about it, the more I hope Jagga slides to us because we can’t afford to mess this up.

Pretty sure there are a number of quality players in the first 6, none of these players are the finished product, the clubs have the opportunity of knowing everything family background, how driven they are, so many other factors than watching videos.
Draper & Langford are outstanding prospects, Smith is likely to go first 2.

 

[DangerousD]

It's the nature of the process. See all their attributes, then see all their flaws, talk up their traits, then point out they're not as good as 27yo superstars, nitpick this, see past that, then reverse the process, etc etc etc.

Not ragging on anybody. All fair dinkum views and opinions are great. Makes the next month interesting.

This is a great draft. We'll be getting a top notch player with a good chance at being elite.

Me personally, its Lalor then Draper for US. But can't lose at 3. FOS and Smith both suit us great as well.

Are all flaws created equal though?

I see lots of people marking down Draper for his disposal, loopy kicks and handballs.

To me this is a skill that can be honed, reading the ball in a stoppage, getting to the right spots, bursting from or through a stoppage are skills that can’t.

Smith is being marked down for his size, something that will change over time.

Lalor is getting harshly judged because he’s a man child supposedly but ticks most of the boxes.

FOS flaw is he doesn’t find the footy, how do you get past this? How will this get better as the level goes up?

 

[windows1]

No, it was an opposition forum somewhere.

24/3 Coates Round 1 - 15 disposals 4 tackles 5 I50s Broken thumb

AFL Academy Game 2 vs Dogs - 13 disposals Finger

7/7 Champs Rd 7 -
14/7 Champs Rd 8 - Minor Hip and Calf

11/8 VFL Round 20 vs Sandringham

24/8 Coates Round 19 - 18 disposals In the bests 3 goals


8/9 Coates Finals Rd 2 - 16 disposals
15/9 Coates Finals Rd 3 - 20 disposals 2 goals in the bests

So 4 Coates League games, 2 Under 19 Championships games, 1 AFL Academy game, 1 VFL game. It's not a lot of football. I don't know the details of some of those injuries, but the minor calf issue is the only soft tissue injury. Hip, thumb and finger are just things that happen.

I've watched all of his footage from these games, so that's just every play he impacts by way of tackle, possession, disposal. I haven't watched the full games to see where he is stationed when he isn't involved in the play.

Observations:

1. Super excited about the way he moves. He gaps opponents in those first few metres and his running action is sexy AFL in footy terms.

2. Great leap, really good mark overhead. In one he comes from 3 deep. 2nd at the combine for running vertical leap. He is going to impact inside forward 50.

3. Penetrating kick. Only 1 major scrubber that I identified, but he often puts it to a teammate's advantage even when they are in a tight 1 on 1.

4. Cripps like vision and hands getting the ball off in tackles. He looks to take the tackler on always, but gives off when that option closes, and rarely misses a handball target within 360 degrees.

5. The feeling that he gets caught with the ball too much, is either a perception thing from limited viewing or it's a 2023 thing, because there is not a lot of that in the 2024 vision, and when there is, he is taking them on. I can't fault the mindset.

6. He is vice captain at Coates League level, with Jagga Smith his captain. Their combination from centre bounces is breathtaking.

7. Doesn't mind taking a hit. Puts his body on the line constantly, and looks physically competitive against players his own age.

8. Not as much time in the VFL and Academy games, but still accelerates away from stoppages. Things don't look quite as fluent as they do in the Champs or Coates Leagues, as he is obviously not used to playing with these teammates, and he is playing against adults.

9. Really has characteristics that we need and will play year 1. Expect glimpses building up to a decent body of work towards the end of the year as he gets used to the pace and system.

Awesome write up. Personally have not been worried about possessions as last year he got 22 a game which usually goes up by ~5+ in final under age year. So I think as you identified there are clear reasons for that. My only concern has been the awareness.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Lem just wanted your opinion re Draper
Me and my mates are having a very heated debate pros and cons
1 do you think he’ll impact first year whoever he plays for
2 who does he remind you of
3 Does he fit vosses game plan moving forward

1. Yes, he played SANFL last year and was averaging over 20 possessions and a number of tackles a game. Place him in an AFL environment, he will increase those numbers.
2. Zach Merrett maybe, is something that comes to mind. Maybe a little quicker than him. Not sure who his mid ranged player comparison would be?
3. I would hope so, does not mind a tackle, has foot speed and can find the football. He ticks many boxes for me.

 

[Tjblues]

Watching this it seems clear he wins the biggest battle - that being win the ball & burst into an attacking position, where he can/could use the ball effectively, catching a defence off guard.

There’s one instance he bursts from CHB & runs through the centre with blistering pace - then coughs it up by hand.

You can’t teach blistering pace, you can teach poise & how to use the time you have better.

A word in the ear, once your out, take your bloody time!

I think his rushed disposal will improve with experience & confidence.

Judd would be an amazing mentor for Sid.

This is the difference of opinion I guess.

If he figures it out he’s got absolute star written all over him.

IMO it’s a really tough thing to change.

Don’t know how much it figures into our thinking (probably very little) but given our only other guaranteed draftee coming in is a midfielder who has kicking issues I’d rather us balance out haul with one of the others.

 

[Tjblues]

No, it was an opposition forum somewhere.

24/3 Coates Round 1 - 15 disposals 4 tackles 5 I50s Broken thumb

AFL Academy Game 2 vs Dogs - 13 disposals Finger

7/7 Champs Rd 7 -
14/7 Champs Rd 8 - Minor Hip and Calf

11/8 VFL Round 20 vs Sandringham

24/8 Coates Round 19 - 18 disposals In the bests 3 goals


8/9 Coates Finals Rd 2 - 16 disposals
15/9 Coates Finals Rd 3 - 20 disposals 2 goals in the bests

So 4 Coates League games, 2 Under 19 Championships games, 1 AFL Academy game, 1 VFL game. It's not a lot of football. I don't know the details of some of those injuries, but the minor calf issue is the only soft tissue injury. Hip, thumb and finger are just things that happen.

I've watched all of his footage from these games, so that's just every play he impacts by way of tackle, possession, disposal. I haven't watched the full games to see where he is stationed when he isn't involved in the play.

Observations:

1. Super excited about the way he moves. He gaps opponents in those first few metres and his running action is sexy AFL in footy terms.

2. Great leap, really good mark overhead. In one he comes from 3 deep. 2nd at the combine for running vertical leap. He is going to impact inside forward 50.

3. Penetrating kick. Only 1 major scrubber that I identified, but he often puts it to a teammate's advantage even when they are in a tight 1 on 1.

4. Cripps like vision and hands getting the ball off in tackles. He looks to take the tackler on always, but gives off when that option closes, and rarely misses a handball target within 360 degrees.

5. The feeling that he gets caught with the ball too much, is either a perception thing from limited viewing or it's a 2023 thing, because there is not a lot of that in the 2024 vision, and when there is, he is taking them on. I can't fault the mindset.

6. He is vice captain at Coates League level, with Jagga Smith his captain. Their combination from centre bounces is breathtaking.

7. Doesn't mind taking a hit. Puts his body on the line constantly, and looks physically competitive against players his own age.

8. Not as much time in the VFL and Academy games, but still accelerates away from stoppages. Things don't look quite as fluent as they do in the Champs or Coates Leagues, as he is obviously not used to playing with these teammates, and he is playing against adults.

9. Really has characteristics that we need and will play year 1. Expect glimpses building up to a decent body of work towards the end of the year as he gets used to the pace and system.

Great write up.

I think FOS is a faster Elijah Hollands on day 1 with capacity to go much further.

He achieves more with his 15 than most do with their 25.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

FOS flaw is he doesn’t find the footy, how do you get past this? How will this get better as the level goes up?

Averaged 22 in his underage year. Only played 8 games at any level this year and played as an attacking midfielder. Not sure of his exact game time, but if you look at the gaps in his season, you can understand him being managed during games. As windows said, players normally average 5 possessions per game more in their second season at that level, but Finn averaged 5 less. I think this will rectify when playing regularly and fully fit.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Great write up.

I think FOS is a faster Elijah Hollands on day 1 with capacity to go much further.

He achieves more with his 15 than most do with their 25.

I can see elements of Elijah in just how classy he looks with ball in hand, and the way he seamlessly disposes to the right option. Imagine Elijah with penetration and burst speed. Oooerrr

 

[GT619]

The more I think about it, the more I hope Jagga slides to us because we can’t afford to mess this up.

I think it will be him or fos

 

[GT619]

my votes still on berry at 3

 

[Juice030103]

my votes still on berry at 3

What did he sayyyyyyyyyyyyy!!!!!!

 

[Blue_Fusion]

This game is a good example of the good and bad of Draper IMO (though it’s one of his better performances)

He ends with a really nice stat line playing in a senior competition against men, which is important to remember.

He pulls off a couple of nice kicks, his stoppage work is excellent.

Multiple times he has acres of space and runs until he has to handball and a good opportunity to attack comes to nothing.

He’s a handball first player, who seems reluctant to kick. When he has time and space he can pull good things off, but his speed comes back to bite him because he’s often unsteady and erratic

This is why Smith is seen as the safer option.

If Lalor and Smith are gone by our pick, I'll take Draper over anyone else left.

 

[bradfisher14]

Disposal quality can be tidied up

Ok, so why are most of the players on our list still shit at kicking the footy?

 

[AD03]

Caution: longish read ahead…

I’ve spent my day watching videos of all the top 4 players (thanks flu) through the “footy stuff” YouTube channel and have some thoughts:

Draper:

Have him by far the 4th best option of these. Doesn’t fix our problems.

Strengths:
Competitor: has a crack and keeps buttering up when the ball is in his vicinity.

Clearance work: stays on the move and has a knack for getting to the right spot.

Speed: is able to burst away from traffic and get into space

Weaknesses:
Decision making: so often he gets out into miles of space, and keeps running until he is forced to pop a loopy handball over the top of an opponent.

Kicking: while neat over 20m, his kicking on the run/under pressure is far weaker than any of the others. Often kicks high 30m aimless bombs, and doesn’t have much of an opposite foot. It’s a real issue

Smith:

Seems bust proof but also isn’t a game breaker. I have him 3rd but I can see the appeal.

Strengths:
Accumulation: knows where the ball is going to go and keeps popping up in good spots.

Clever: uses his agility to create space to handball to players in better positions.

Consistent: a lot of his games are very similar. You put his magnet on the board and can be assured of the job he’ll be able to do.

Weaknesses:
Size: won’t stay this small forever but he’s wire thin and not much of a physical threat.

Penetration: he’s a tidy kick. But he tends to kick loopy balls and would struggle to kick far past 40m.

Hurt factor: he’s very involved, but compared to the others his possessions can be less impactful

FOS:

More of a mixed bag than smith but has moments of real quality and afl level traits. Starts round 1 next year as a will hayward with the potential to turn into Heeney

Strengths:
Marking: super athletic and has a great set of hands. Also helps him stay involved defensively as he can spoil and intercept t a higher level.

Kick penetration: can kick a set shot from 50m without much issue and when he blazes away it at least clears a significant distance.

Creativity: can also be his downfall at times but he goes for things that if successful are high impact, doesn’t get the ball like the others but most of his possessions are memorable

Weaknesses:

Accumulation: not as worried about this as some on here but he doesn’t get as much footy as the other 3.

Awareness: probably not the best word for it but he gets caught more often than you’d want. It’s one thing to take it on but you can’t always be superman.

Lalor:

Can see why he’s rumoured to go 1 to the Tigers, oozes afl quality, plays a lot like DeGoey from what I saw.

Strengths:

Kicking: can kick a big ball and pierced it low and hard through the middle with regularity

Size: he’s a big lad and against guys his age he’s way too tough to handle

Confidence: Carries himself like a star. Backs himself to win contests and does.

Weaknesses:

Injuries: high grade hammy this year is a little alarming

Position: is he a full time mid at afl level or is he a half forward who has bursts inside?

This exercise reinforced my high opinions of Lalor and FOS, solidified Smith as a solid 3rd option, and cooled me significantly on Draper.

Still think there’s next to no chance we get a bad player at 3, but Draper throws up red flags that clubs always say they can fix, but never do

Most sensible post I’ve seen in about 15 pages on this topic.

Far better summary than the standard “I don’t like FOS” after watching 1 4min clip.

 

[HarryFlashman]

I think i may have an original question - out of the top prospects who is the best off both sides?

Of all the flaws, IMO being weak on your non preferred is the hardest to fix

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Most sensible post I’ve seen in about 15 pages on this topic.

Far better summary than the standard “I don’t like FOS” after watching 1 4min clip.

I'm not sure watching 3-4 4 minute clips is a hell of a lot better is it? A lot of posts on here this time of year are from posters who seemingly haven't watched a single full game of some of the prospects their commenting on.

Clips of when they actually get the ball only tells half the tail most of the time, especially when discussing their defensive application and ability to stay involved around the ground.

 

[marcmurphy3]

I think i may have an original question - out of the top prospects who is the best off both sides?

Of all the flaws, IMO being weak on your non preferred is the hardest to fix

Probably Jagga of the top group though wouldn't call any of them dual sided. He's serviceable though. Haven't seen FOS or Draper use their non preferred much at all.