Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[GoBlues!]

Or maybe the bullshit thats spilled on here about FOS is inaccurate

What do you mean?

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

What do you mean?

What I said! People on here have bias against FOS and us selecting him … I feel for the kid if we select him, the abuse he will cop if he doesn’t dominate straight away

 

[marcmurphy3]

Or maybe the bullshit thats spilled on here about FOS is inaccurate

Seen that 17.2 disposal average quoted a few times as evidence Finn cant find the ball.

That average was taken from 4 games. In one of those he broke his thumb, another was coming back from a hip injury. He kicked 5 goals across the other 2 so clearly spent time forward.

Think people are reading to much into that number. He averaged 23.5 touches last year in the same comp as a bottom ager across 8 games. A much more reliable sample.

I'm not saying accumulation is his biggest strength but he isn't a 15-20 possesion player.

 

[GoBlues!]

What I said! People on here have bias against FOS and us selecting him … I feel for the kid if we select him, the abuse he will cop if he doesn’t dominate straight away

I was actually having a crack at the sloppy journalism, Crippa.

I know it’s a puff piece but saying FOS is a prolific ball winner is not accurate. FOS is a moderate ball winner with high impact and doesn’t waste his possessions. I could be wrong but I don’t think of Bontempelli comparisons when I see FOS play - not a criticism of FOS just don’t think the Bont is the best comparison.

I don’t think there’s bias against FOS, it’s more people have preferences for what other players bring.

 

[Jimmae]

It's been mentioned previously, but it's a really valid point - don't judge a player in isolation, but what he adds to a collective into the future. We can't forget that our draftees are still in the infancy of their AFL careers.

It's still very early days, but on face value we lucked out on Cooper Lord. Looks like a hard working inside/outside mid that would compliment a potential star player like O'Sullivan in the midfield. Then combine the running power of Walsh, the class of Cez, the X-factor of Elijah, and the untapped potential of the Campo's. Maybe even throw in Billy the Kid for that additional speed on the outside.

Add a Cody Walker in a few years time who looks an exceptional talent - and there you have a pretty complete midfield to take us forward when our aging warriors like Crippa and George and Doc slowly disappear into the sunset like the final scene of a spaghetti western.

I gots to like what Austin is dishing out

I mean it's a bit weird to say Cody Walker will be a superstar, but pick 3 in a strong draft shouldn't have huge early expectations on them, no?

It will be crazy if Smith goes at 1, and FOS at 2. Where would that leave us?

Not against taking him, but I'd definitely be calling Richmond and seeing what a trade down to 6 & 10 would look like if that eventuated...

 

[HyphensBack]

Seem that 17.2 disposal average quoted a few times as evidence Finn cant find the ball.

That average was taken from 4 games. In one of those he broke his thumb, another was coming back from a hip injury. He kicked 5 goals across the other 2 so clearly spent time forward.

Think people are reading to much into that number. He averaged 23.5 touches last year in the same comp as a bottom ager across 8 games. A much more reliable sample.

I'm not saying accumulation is his biggest strength but he isn't a 15-20 possesion player.

Good context murph
If he is a 20+ possession player and I50 disposal and vision is his 1 Wood then if we pick him I will support him like every other blue bagger

I know for me the fact we have a Pick 3 and are in our Window just means I think this pick is so critical thus I want to debate and analyse



But then Cripps, DeKoning, Harry, Charlie, Weitering all the way thru to Fogarty, Boyd and Motlop are critical.

Voss, Power, the coaching panel and the team are also super critical cause do the play Pick 3, Moir etc and if they do and we lose it will be ugly

Inness and team are also super super crticial on reflection of Season 2024 - we need a reduced injury list

Pick 3 and to a lesser extent 38 and the Blues Brothers are the topic for November - after that who knows what we will be talking about (supplementary players and 1AWs hat based on previous pre-seasons)

 

[Jimmae]

It's not unreasonable to point out the strength of this draft, and that historically the success rates of the draft have been getting better bar some obvious issues through 2020-2021.

At this point 12 & 14 still represent two of the following players:

• Hotton
• Allan
• Travaglia
• Tauru
• Trainor
• Berry
• Whitlock twins
• Hynes

Personally I'm big on Hynes and Hotton, but do feel some of these names aren't worth it compared to getting further up in the order.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

It's not unreasonable to point out the strength of this draft, and that historically the success rates of the draft have been getting better bar some obvious issues through 2020-2021.

At this point 12 & 14 still represent two of the following players:

• Hotton
• Allan
• Travaglia
• Tauru
• Trainor
• Berry
• Whitlock twins
• Hynes

Personally I'm big on Hynes and Hotton, but do feel some of these names aren't worth it compared to getting further up in the order.

I mean top 5 picks still have a clear clear improvement on picks in the 10-20 range.

We've run the numbers before. There is a clearly different class of player available.

 

[Azzurro]

I think two different players and Moir has played 2 impressive quarters but still don’t know what his going to be, and respectfully I personally feel people have a personal bias against FOS so they are nitpicking reasons not to select him.

There’s a good chance he could go pick 1 if not top 2

The only "bias" I'm seeing here appears to be from you though? We all definitely have opinions, based on our perspective.

I personally wouldn't pick FOS if I was our recruitment team, but that's based on the limited vision I've seen along with the average (not poor at all, but certainly not great) statistical output in 2024 games. Historically, superstars boss this level but he just hasn't, statistically. I'm also thinking about the clear list management imperative identifying that "availability is the best ability", and when I read his Marchbank-esque list of unfortunate injury events I get nervous, PTSD flashbacks. So personally, if I was the one who had to pull the trigger, I'd be calling another name on draft night. No bias about it. Including, especially, no care that he's Walshy's 2nd cousin!

But...

I trust our recruiting team implicitly these days. They've earned that right. And if they do pick FOS, I'll get behind him 100%, instantly, and never look back - that's how I support. The club has great foundations now, so I'll back him to make his mark, starting from draft night.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

The only "bias" I'm seeing here appears to be from you though? We all definitely have opinions, based on our perspective.

I personally wouldn't pick FOS if I was our recruitment team, but that's based on the limited vision I've seen along with the average (not poor at all, but certainly not great) statistical output in 2024 games. Historically, superstars boss this level but he just hasn't, statistically. I'm also thinking about the clear list management imperative identifying that "availability is the best ability", and when I read his Marchbank-esque list of unfortunate injury events I get nervous, PTSD flashbacks. So personally, if I was the one who had to pull the trigger, I'd be calling another name on draft night. No bias about it. Including, especially, no care that he's Walshy's 2nd cousin!

But...

I trust our recruiting team implicitly these days. They've earned that right. And if they do pick FOS, I'll get behind him 100%, instantly, and never look back - that's how I support. The club has great foundations now, so I'll back him to make his mark, starting from draft night.

Sometimes I think I come from another planet.

 

[Azzurro]

Sometimes I think I come from another planet.

I've shared my view from the perspective of "if I was our list manager, gun to my head, here's how I'd play it and why". That doesn't exclude me from supporting any young fella we draft wholeheartedly, including FOS if we actually do take him. I don't whip any players ever - FOS is no more likely to become a whipping boy than any other draftee.

We've both made up our minds and have a different opinion - as others have pointed out, opinions which are ultimately worth nothing because they don't influence the outcome.

For the record, for us I'd take, in order: Jagga, Lalor, Langford, Draper, FOS. It's a risk-based equation.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

The only "bias" I'm seeing here appears to be from you though? We all definitely have opinions, based on our perspective.

I personally wouldn't pick FOS if I was our recruitment team, but that's based on the limited vision I've seen along with the average (not poor at all, but certainly not great) statistical output in 2024 games. Historically, superstars boss this level but he just hasn't, statistically. I'm also thinking about the clear list management imperative identifying that "availability is the best ability", and when I read his Marchbank-esque list of unfortunate injury events I get nervous, PTSD flashbacks. So personally, if I was the one who had to pull the trigger, I'd be calling another name on draft night. No bias about it. Including, especially, no care that he's Walshy's 2nd cousin!

But...

I trust our recruiting team implicitly these days. They've earned that right. And if they do pick FOS, I'll get behind him 100%, instantly, and never look back - that's how I support. The club has great foundations now, so I'll back him to make his mark, starting from draft night.

No bias here, Lalor is my first choice then Finn but I’ll be very happy with whoever we select, I just think people on here are over critical of Finn and are nitpicking reasons not to select him

 

[Sheephead]

FOS is my this years ‘Vanilla’. called Walsh out as Vanilla, FOS will be a star also. It’ll just take me time to trust him like I do #18. But man I’ll barrack my wooly A off for the kid if we select him.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Today's HUN:

 

[BlueNath]

Maybe this quote from Chris Cavanagh might help convince a few of those FOS doubters? "The numbers say: Finished an interrupted year with a bang in the Coates Talent League preliminary final, logging 20 disposals, eight inside-50s, eight marks, seven score involvements and two goals."

He does not need 30 each week to impact games. The kid will be a jet and is exactly what our midfield needs.

 

[viking12]

Looking at more footage, Jagga or Draper for me

 

[PumpyChowdown]

What concerns me greatly about FOS is the thought that in 4 years time we'll potentially be discussing yet another injury setback and discussing his return from injury the following season with predictions his average possession count will skyrocket from single figures to the mid-teens.

If we had multiple picks like Richmond, I would be all in on FOS because his upside is ridiculous. But we only have one shot and I think a safer choice is the right path for us to go down. Smith, to me at least, seems like that choice. Whilst there's no guarantees in this world, he seems most likely to be a "sure thing".

 

[Ninja Worrier]

I could be wrong but for mine Lalor FOS and draper are a clear top 3 (and for our list as well). It could just be a matter of sitting back and seeing who is left at three. Not saying that I don't like jagga and Langford too.

 

[Stamos]

Hun Phantom
(Although the actual phantom doesn't show up on Archive)

https://archive.md/5wD4Y

Carlton could swing an early draft surprise as the Blues weigh up selecting South Australian midfielder Sid Draper with their No. 3 pick.
It is understood that Draper met with the Blues on Friday, with any potential play for him set to have ramifications down the order. Carlton has long been linked to Victorian midfielder Finn O’Sullivan with its first selection, who is a second cousin of Sam Walsh

18

Sam Walsh

Age

24

Ht

184cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.1

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.6

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

3.4

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.2

5star

K

15.4

5star

HB

10.8

5star

M

6.0

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

4.8

5star

. However, rival clubs believe that O’Sullivan is no certainty for that selection as Draper firmly comes into calculations.

The Blues’ pick has been described by rival clubs as a “turning point” in the draft, which could start a “chain reaction”.

 

[GT619]

we visited draper on Friday

 

[Crippa#9]

Per Herald Sun's Chris Cavanagh; 'While the feeling is Finn O'Sullivan is their preference, Carlton has expressed significant interest in South Australian Sid Draper and met again with him last Friday (8th of Nov).'


I wonder if this is a ploy by Austin to force Adelaide into trading up for #2 thus almost certainly leaving FOS available at #3.
Either way, I'm certain we'll be selecting one of FOS or Draper.

 

[marcmurphy3]

So according to the Hun:
Richmond 1 - Lalor
Roos - Tauru (noone interested in sliding up)
Blues- FOS, Draper or Smith (in that order)
Crows - Draper or Langford
Dees - Langford, Smith or Tauru
Richmond 6 - Smith or Smillie
St Kilda 7 - Smith, Smillie or Tauru

 

[Crippa#9]

FOS is my this years ‘Vanilla’. called Walsh out as Vanilla, FOS will be a star also. It’ll just take me time to trust him like I do #18. But man I’ll barrack my wooly A off for the kid if we select him.

FOS is the chocolate on the vanilla ice cream. Whilst he may not accumulate as much as SW18, he is more dynamic as a burst player, marking ability & goalkicker. The comparisons to a young Isaac Heeney are reasonably accurate.

 

[Bic]

I find it strange people can't get behind midfielders who kick goals.

 

[Benaly28]

Per Herald Sun's Chris Cavanagh; 'While the feeling is their preference is Finn O'Sullivan, Carlton has expressed significant interest in South Australian Sid Draper and met again with him last Friday (8th of Nov).'


I wonder if this is a ploy by Austin to force Adelaide into trading up for #2 thus almost certainly leaving FOS available at #3.
Either way, I'm certain we'll be selecting one of FOS or Draper.

Team Sid


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