Autopsy 2024 Rd 13 Blues shoot down the Bombers to move into 2nd

[Bryce Bubbles]

Let's take a moment to reflect on the amazing problem we're about to have. Genuine selection headaches. B L I S S.

Anyway... Fog is not getting dropped for anyone. Ditto Williams. Fog is a pressure beast. Williams too, plus he kicks goals.

Jack Martin walks into this side when fit. Durdin the first to be dropped. Not exactly like for like - but I think Martin and Williams could play deeper if required and probably do that role better than Durdin.

Owies, Durdin & Motlop are battling for the last spot up forward. Pick whoever is in form... or given that Owies hasn't re-signed for 2025 (I think..?) pick one of the others who are younger with an eye to the future. Owies stays for now.. but Motlop comes in when he finds form in the 2's.

I would pick Hewett over Kennedy. Kennedy is a bit more versatile but we do not need any of his versatility - no spot for him up forward, and we can't persist with him rucking.

Getting Cottrell back into the team is where things start to get tricky. I'd drop Olle Hollands. Harsh, but I see no-one else.

2024 best 22 changes vs yesterday:

OUT: O Hollands Owies Durdin Carroll
IN: Cerra Cottrell Motlop Martin

The lineup:

B: Kemp, Weitering, Cowan
HB: Saad, McGovern, Newman
C: Cottrell, Cripps, Acres
HF: Martin, Curnow, Fogarty
F: Motlop, McKay, Williams
FOL: TDK, Walsh, Cerra

INT: Boyd, Hewett, Cincotta, E Hollands

SUB: Kennedy

EMG: O Hollands, Owies, Pittonet, Marchbank

I'd rather keep O Hollands and sit on the inclusion of Motlop
Or martin. Tbh martin cannot be relied on. Keep him on ive until later in the season..like the last two games...

 

[Bryce Bubbles]

We have proven our ability through forced change to be able to slot different players into our system.

I'd be picking the best available talent and backing them in to work it out.

Now is the time to expierment. Cincotta & Williams are already two success stores.

2 months to work out the bext mix before we strut onto the G and have a crack at #17.

The best mix will have to be flexible as injuries are a given

 

[T2B_]

O. Hollands is an interesting one. Only the 10 touches but felt like he was involved in some key contests and of course runs all day. He definitely had the fight and intensity in his game that he had last year where he punches above his weight, so that's something.

 

[AT97]

And some guy called Geoff... he was also pretty good at the game.

Keep forgetting about a bloke named Ken, also.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Serious question. On form is TDK the 2nd best Ruckman in the comp behind Gawn?

His hit out numbers the only drawback but English and Marshall aren't great in that regard either. I think his work around the ground is more damaging then both at the moment. Marshall also wins a lot of clearances but slams the ball on the boot, while English gets involved in more chains, but I don't think that's as damaging as the contested ruckman. Both are down on their 2023 form.

Over the last 3 weeks TDK is averaging 22 disposals, 10 clearances, 25 hit outs, 140 supercoach points. What's more impressive is he played against Witts and Goldstein in that period, the type of rucks he has been known to struggle against.

 

[passmark]

As much as I enjoyed the win I’d certainly keep a little more calm in games if we had a kick in plan other than “chip to pocket, then kick up the line” for the last 2 quarters.

Makes me very unsettled particularly when sides are pushing to score.

Also, wtf is it with these umps and their “not 15m” calls when kicking in? Every one of them was easily 15 m. Not the first time this has happened.

 

[BlueTongue]

I want to highlight 2 things Vossy has done/said in the last week that I think shows the sign of a very good coach.

First one was the prank call to Ben & Harry podcast. I think this was a master stroke and very intentional. What it no doubt did was take a lot of the stress out of the game for our boys, help them relax and have a bit of a laugh but subtlety reinforce a desire to win.

The second was in the post match presser tonight where he said that if you want to beat us you have to play 4 Qtrs. That is positive reinforcement and confidence building, but at the same time subtly setting an expectation for or level of effort.

I’ve no doubt he’s the right coach for us. A great balance between, premiership experience, a hard edge driven by high standards, but still able to have fun with the boys.

 

[jj1978]

Sitting on 2ng going into the bye…

Only port can go above us this bye round but they’re unlikely to beat gws away from Adelaide

GWS are in bad form since we played them (did we break them?), not sure? They were so close to a premiership (Toby tax) and now they've hit the wall somewhat after 12 months of electric football.

 

[T2B_]

I want to highlight 2 things Vossy has done/said in the last week that I think shows the sign of a very good coach.

First one was the prank call to Ben & Harry podcast. I think this was a master stroke and very intentional. What it no doubt did was take a lot of the stress out of the game for our boys, help them relax and have a bit of a laugh but subtlety reinforce a desire to win.

The second was in the post match presser tonight where he said that if you want to beat us you have to play 4 Qtrs. That is positive reinforcement and confidence building, but at the same time subtly setting an expectation for or level of effort.

I’ve no doubt he’s the right coach for us. A great balance between, premiership experience, a hard edge driven by high standards, but still able to have fun with the boys.

I think Vossy has shown a lot of growth this season as well.

 

[Sector 7G]

GWS are in bad form since we played them (did we break them?), not sure? They were so close to a premiership (Toby tax) and now they've hit the wall somewhat after 12 months of electric football.

Ash and Kelly bring the run to GWS. Massive outs

 

[Kruezing]

Goooood morning all

 

[marcmurphy3]

Elijah Hollands: 19 disposals, 7 marks, 3 goals, 4 clearances is a great game in anyone's book.

Freakin Rolls Royce too. I didn't realise he's listed as 189cm... Same as Judd, but the way he kinda moves around hunched over (no bad thing, low centre of gravity) makes him seem a bit smaller maybe.

Doesn't make a bad decision. Hits kicks left or right, long or short. Dangerous overhead and at ground level plus can find the ball. Runs all day. Just has great overall skillset.

I love the fact that he looks like he wants to be the man, a bit like Charlie. We've lacked that in the recent past. To many guys wanting to be the team player, rather than knowing when to make it their moment.

 

[jj1978]

As much as I enjoyed the win I’d certainly keep a little more calm in games if we had a kick in plan other than “chip to pocket, then kick up the line” for the last 2 quarters.

Makes me very unsettled particularly when sides are pushing to score.

Also, wtf is it with these umps and their “not 15m” calls when kicking in? Every one of them was easily 15 m. Not the first time this has happened.

Since Voss called out the umps a few weeks ago not sure we hit a sensitive spot with the fraternity. Tweaks to HTB have not helped us at all as it seems with other teams (Walsh grabbed immediately a number of times and pinged, we do the same nothing) and other weird things like 15m and intent in the last few (Saad for example last night, though * did get pinged for one but it was probably fortunate a * player was nearish when it went over)

 

[T2B_]

Serious question. On form is TDK the 2nd best Ruckman in the comp behind Gawn?

His hit out numbers the only drawback but English and Marshall aren't great in that regard either. I think his work around the ground is more damaging then both at the moment. Marshall also wins a lot of clearances but slams the ball on the boot, while English gets involved in more chains, but I don't think that's as damaging as the contested ruckman. Both are down on their 2023 form.

Over the last 3 weeks TDK is averaging 22 disposals, 10 clearances, 25 hit outs, 140 supercoach points. What's more impressive is he played against Witts and Goldstein in that period, the type of rucks he has been known to struggle against.

It's a really difficult one for me. If we're talking pure ruckman, as in hitouts and hitouts to advantage, without looking at stats I imagine there's a fair few ahead of him.

However... What he's doing at the moment isn't exactly conventional ruck play, he's dominating in different ways. He is capable of winning more hitouts but is often going with the taking the ball out of the ruck contest to win a clearance instead or of course following up at ground level.

For overall impact I guess he's right up there.

 

[Accidental genius]

Not sure I agree with this. See cripps' game from last week! He still got 20 disposals and 14 were contested. Could have had a goal as well but got burnt.

He was good - was in the thick of it, particularly in and under plays but I thought the new rules didn't allow Cripps in particular to push through would be tackles like he normally does because umps blowing the whistle for HTB a lot more quickly.

Charlie burning Cripps running into f50 with space in front of him was not good - He is a senior player now and although he normally nails those he needs to do the right thing and evaluate better options.

 

[Bryce Bubbles]

He was good - was in the thick of it, particularly in and under plays but I thought the new rules didn't allow Cripps in particular to push through would be tackles like he normally does because umps blowing the whistle for HTB a lot more quickly.

Charlie burning Cripps running into f50 with space in front of him was not good - He is a senior player now and although he normally nails those he needs to do the right thing and evaluate better options.

Yeah i am not a Fan of this latest HTB modification. Not because of what you mentioned which is valid but just think it leads to sloppier footy

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Serious question. On form is TDK the 2nd best Ruckman in the comp behind Gawn?

His hit out numbers the only drawback but English and Marshall aren't great in that regard either. I think his work around the ground is more damaging then both at the moment. Marshall also wins a lot of clearances but slams the ball on the boot, while English gets involved in more chains, but I don't think that's as damaging as the contested ruckman. Both are down on their 2023 form.

Over the last 3 weeks TDK is averaging 22 disposals, 10 clearances, 25 hit outs, 140 supercoach points. What's more impressive is he played against Witts and Goldstein in that period, the type of rucks he has been known to struggle against.

Another question is, if you’re in a ruck contest and you actually grab it from the contest surely that’s not a hit out???

If that’s the case, TDKs rucking looks a whole lot better. He gets the ball from the ruck and disposes of it quite regularly

 

[Accidental genius]

Serious question. On form is TDK the 2nd best Ruckman in the comp behind Gawn?

His hit out numbers the only drawback but English and Marshall aren't great in that regard either. I think his work around the ground is more damaging then both at the moment. Marshall also wins a lot of clearances but slams the ball on the boot, while English gets involved in more chains, but I don't think that's as damaging as the contested ruckman. Both are down on their 2023 form.

Over the last 3 weeks TDK is averaging 22 disposals, 10 clearances, 25 hit outs, 140 supercoach points. What's more impressive is he played against Witts and Goldstein in that period, the type of rucks he has been known to struggle against.

He's more like a nic natanui imo - can jump, so potential to improve in the ruck, excellent leap for marks, excellent around the ground and pretty quick with hands and good footy IQ specially in tight he knows how to get a clear hand pass out.

He is like a new breed of ruck altogether - and still seems to be improving ...which is scary how good he will end

 

[Sector 7G]

Massive win.
Defensive mindset from both coaches with slippery conditions meant it was going to be an arm wrestle.
We struggled to get repeat i50 as a result on brutal efficiency infront of goal.
Loving that our snaps are running to the top of the square rather than to the pockets. Much higher% of converting.
Great to see CC kicking it better. The darts were on target.
Was worried * would get us with pace through the middle and it only happened once or twice for the game.
Williams has found his spot in the forward line. Misses to many hero kicks I. The backline but it doesn’t matter as much up forward.
Hopefully the goal is a booster to Durds confidence as he has been down this year .

 

[Accidental genius]

Yeah i am not a Fan of this latest HTB modification. Not because of what you mentioned which is valid but just think it leads to sloppier footy

Free kicks in general have become a bit of a lottery now - trying to speed up the game which Im happy with in general but significant in season changes like what we are observing now is problematic imo

 

[Faz 2000]

Learnings (and once again, don’t you love learnings from wins?):

1. Class in the forward half is transformative. The extra second and deft touch of Zilliams and Hollands is so valuable. More more MORE.
2. A bonafide small forward crumber would kick 40 goals in our side. Oppositions sweep it away with monotonous regularity when the big fellas don’t mark it because it feels like 90% of the time it falls to where a great small forward would be and there’s no one there.
3. The midfield group as a whole is too slow, can’t get up and back. Someone probably has to go to change the mix, or we will get exposed at the pointy end. It’s not that any of Cripps, Hewett, Kennedy, Acres, Hollands, etc aren’t good enough to contribute, but as a group there’s no speed.
4. I’ve been a huge Nic Newman

24

Nic Newman

Age

31

Ht

186cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.7

5star

K

13.7

5star

HB

5.9

4star

M

5.5

5star

T

3.3

5star

MG

400.8

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

1.0

1star

M

2.0

2star

T

1.0

2star

MG

157.0

3star

D

22.4

5star

K

12.8

5star

HB

9.6

5star

M

5.4

5star

T

3.6

5star

MG

387.8

5star

fan but when we get bogged down coincides with when he’s getting too much of the ball in the back half. He’s not blessed with foot speed and as he tires his kicks get more and more like 9 irons to nowhere. Not all his fault, but the more dynamic options we can develop back there the better. Would like to see Boyd used more prominently.

I think we’re top 4, and should fancy our chances against anyone (for now, except Sydney who are miles in front). From a List Mgt, trade target, Free Agent point of view, I think targets should be clear - pace and kicking skills. One each in each third of the ground and we’d be “complete”.

 

[kreuze_missile]

O. Hollands is an interesting one. Only the 10 touches but felt like he was involved in some key contests and of course runs all day. He definitely had the fight and intensity in his game that he had last year where he punches above his weight, so that's something.

In 2 years he will be a best 22 lock.. but for now I have him out of the team when we’re fully fit.

Doesn’t stick tackles and often beaten in 1 on 1 contests. Those are non negotiable for me.

Not his fault.. he’s a 2nd year player with a 2nd year body.

 

[Dramoth]

Yes agree, make this bs "he made an attempt" to not be grey. Did it hit the boot, or fist make contact on handpass? No, free kick for incorrect disposal. But I fear the correction for holding the ball is making it a problem as players are clearly panicking when around a scrum of players and are tentative to take the ball, or not hit someone high, tackle correctly etc. We have a contact sport where players in congestion have to calculate so many variables and the playmaker is at just as much risk of giving away a free kick as anyone.

Don't know the solution, could it be maintain positions somewhat? 2 players minimum in each third of the ground? during a ball up only ruckman and 2 midfielders can be in a protected zone to contest?

I do wonder how much the AFL spends in umpiring analysis and rule changes beyond just gut feel and media and public input.

Walsh got tackled by two drug cheats. Was taken to ground, but before he hit the ground, he handballed it out. The umpire blows holding the ball as soon as he hit the ground. Totally ****ed that decision up and the drug cheats scored from it.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

Ash and Kelly bring the run to GWS. Massive outs

Coniglio also a big out

 

[Uncle Fester]

Keep forgetting about a bloke named Ken, also.

If you were doing a best carlton team of the last 50 years who would the key defenders be? SOS, weitering, southby, david mckay? The flankers doull hunter dean? Christ ang and andrew mckay dont get in the conversation….. the two smalls are the tricky ones rhys jones on the bench maybe