Because we get 1/3 more goals.....simples!
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Autopsy 2024 Rd 20 Loss to Port - Top 4 in jeopardy
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Mathematically would be 50% more 
Earls Smother
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Sydney only just kicked 2 goals in a half of football. That was the half where they were actually fresh. They are apparently going to win the flag easily.
They were coming off a tough game in warm conditions, where they lost players to injury. It is such a fine line at this stage of an even season.
The slightest advantage in draw, conditions, toughness of previous game, injuries etc. is having a huge influence.
Sydney did the work to lock away a top2 spot and so they can afford a flat spot, with little disruption to setting themselves up for home finals and best shot at a flag.
Sydney is also very trustworthy across a long sample size.
Carlton, on the otherhand, has had multiple opportunities to solidify a home final and provide some breathing room to afford a loss.
Add to this our history across the last 20years, it becomes difficult to trust us.
I look at the Adelaide game we dropped, the Collingwood game with the Daicos goal and probably the way we responded after the GWS game as the red flags and has impacted the reason.
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Earls Smother
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You can't really plan your flat spots though. We aren't deliberately being flat (I think). If Russell has flattened us via heavy training, then we better fly home from here to justify it.
It has been shown time and again that this is a difficult time of year, unless you are a standout great team. We are not that, we need most things going our way for us supporters to feel comfortable. Sydney are not that either, otherwise they don't lose 4 of their last 5.
I don't think we are ever going to be able to trust us like we did in '95. The comp doesn't allow it. Pies form was average leading into finals and their fans had to endure one kick games all through to win it.
We are one of a bunch of sides that can win it. It was never going to be the sort of year where it would look like we will win it at all stages along the way.
Yep. It's clear now that our game is built on manic pressure and contest. We haven't been able to bring that consistently over the last month, and if that doesn't come back asap, we're in trouble.
Footy's also more strategic than it's ever been. Teams refuse to give the Swans the short, inside kick coming out of D50. They're forcing them long down the line and outnumbering them at the drop. Give the Swans time and space to change angles and they'll cut you up. It's an onus on the Swans to get the game played on their terms again.
We're in a similar situation. We're short an A-grader in the midfield with Walsh struggling physically and Cerra nowhere near his best. Getting beaten in the contest is putting our defence under pressure. Teams know we're struggling for height so are playing the 3 talls. Once the ball gets to the ground, we're suspect and leaking easy goals (too many attacking the ball in the air because of that lack of trust, not enough staying down to scrap for the ground ball). A combination of struggling midfield and a defence that can't absorb even routine pressure has us extremely vulnerable.
Like the Swans, teams refuse to give us the short inside ball, knowing we can't or won't work it up the field through short kicks. We default to the long bomb down the line, despite being comfortably the worst team in the comp at retaining possession.
Manic pressure and midfield dominance change the equation for us. It protects our suspect defence and allows us to play the game in our forward half and get repeat entries. Get the front-half pressure right and we're excellent at intercepting across half forward. But unless Walsh or Cerra miraculously get back to their best, that's looking unlikely, especially in the absence of TDK.
Coaching isn't easy. Do we continue to back in our proud midfield group to turn it around and start to dominate field position again? Or do we concede it's probably not going to happen this year and go in with a more defensive mindset, turn it into a slog with numbers around the contest, and hope we're good enough to win field position that way? Worked well for us in the back half of 2023.
We're operating with small margins. Our biggest losing margin for the year (Sydney game aside) is 14 points. Doesn't seem like a massive adjustment is needed, but it's been 4 weeks where we've struggled to get the game on our terms for more than 2 quarters. If we're going to impact this season, it's now or never vs the Pies.
WyntersGame_
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I think either of those options help but McKay is more than a forward option. He's a hell of an option when trying to get out of our back half. Also for a Key Forward he isn't particularly selfish, he seems to look to bring his team mates into the game rather than just trying to score.
We had way to many players not doing the team thing in the forward half.
I didn't include JSOS because he's not been an option all year. He also is limited. I do love his endeavour and footy brain but I don't this he's vital to our structure like McKay is
** sorry for the delayed response
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Assuming the rest of my tips go as predicted (unlikely), this could be our scenarios.
I still have us finishing 3rd, but it requires us to win all our remaining games.
Our path to the grand final then requires either beating Lions in Brisbane (do that and it's a home prelim against Freo or Dogs), or Swans in Sydney if we lose (after beating GWS in a home semi).
If we lose one of either Pies or Hawks, we likely finish 5th, which could be an elimination against Port in Melbourne (if we lose to Pies), or Hawks (if we lose to Hawks) and then likely a prelim in Brisbane.
If we lose both of Pies and Hawks (assuming other games go as I think), we finish 6th. That could be GWS in a VIC elim, Dockers in Perth, then Swans in Sydney in the prelim.
Sadly, for GC, they could have their best ever season and still miss finals, even if they win their last 4 games.
I still have us finishing 3rd, but it requires us to win all our remaining games.
Our path to the grand final then requires either beating Lions in Brisbane (do that and it's a home prelim against Freo or Dogs), or Swans in Sydney if we lose (after beating GWS in a home semi).
If we lose one of either Pies or Hawks, we likely finish 5th, which could be an elimination against Port in Melbourne (if we lose to Pies), or Hawks (if we lose to Hawks) and then likely a prelim in Brisbane.
If we lose both of Pies and Hawks (assuming other games go as I think), we finish 6th. That could be GWS in a VIC elim, Dockers in Perth, then Swans in Sydney in the prelim.
Sadly, for GC, they could have their best ever season and still miss finals, even if they win their last 4 games.
- Jun 20, 2019
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‘Trauma again’: Blues woes exposed as AFL greats call out ‘passengers’; urge Blues to get ‘ruthless’
‘Trauma again’: Blues woes exposed as AFL greats call out ‘passengers’; urge Blues to get ‘ruthless’
www.foxsports.com.au
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Unfortunately can't argue with almost all of that.
‘Trauma again’: Blues woes exposed as AFL greats call out ‘passengers’; urge Blues to get ‘ruthless’
‘Trauma again’: Blues woes exposed as AFL greats call out ‘passengers’; urge Blues to get ‘ruthless’
We keep waiting for the spark that is going to ignite the group again but instead we have had 4 lacklustre games in a row.
gab213
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These people got so accustomed to piling onto us when we were cellar dwellers, a couple of losses and they can't help but start it up again. It's like they have to feed their habit. Top4 with scope for improvement, how long has it been since we could say that?‘Trauma again’: Blues woes exposed as AFL greats call out ‘passengers’; urge Blues to get ‘ruthless’
‘Trauma again’: Blues woes exposed as AFL greats call out ‘passengers’; urge Blues to get ‘ruthless’
Hi Gab
I listened and read this and I reckon the comments are mostly right. What bits do you have an issue with? Genuine question as your posts are generally right on for me
This nailed it for me
“We’ve talked about their point of difference being they bash teams to the inch of their life on the way towards a finals run where they fell just short up at the Gabba,” he began.
“That’s a huge problem, they’re not violent enough, they don’t treasure possession like they once did, or is it the wrong players?
gab213
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I don't necessarily disagree with any of that Soapy but those problems aren't things that have just now materialised. I just hate seeing the use of terms such as trauma, woes and passengers. At the moment we are carrying players that shouldn't be in our 23 but that is due to circumstances that aren't necessarily within our control.
Fair enough. I stopped watching these types of shows years ago as it becomes like a weekly agenda without looking at the whole picture.
I do agree we have several passengers (which again highlights our lack of depth)
Does look like they are highlighting issues that many people on here have been discussing here for weeks
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I also wasn't reading it from the point of its hyperbole, but from various points raised within... but hyperbole and unnecessary adjectives are what gets many people in (hence why I usually mute most TV commentary, because of the hyperbole).
gab213
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I understand and definitely wasn't having a go at you for posting it Rev, I'm just done with those sort of Titles and headlines, makes me not want to consume media at all. As for TV Commentary, well I've never seen it as bad as it is now. We were spoiled with people like Cometti, McAveney, even Landy and Roberts going way back.
AceAndy
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What is with all the title changes for this thread ?
Honestly think it's mostly mental, we're still a bit fragile there I reckon.
ie. started playing footy last year only when absolutely everyone had written us off as a finals chance. No weight, no expectations, essentially playing with house money. This year, the very instant we're sitting 2nd with a few games break and clear 2nd flag favourite, all and sundry in the media pumping us up, we seem to go to water again.
Might be a more mundane reason but the timings are suspicious.
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First Crack is probably my favourite in terms of footy analysis, but still leaves a lot to be desired as you can't really fit genuine analysis across all games in the amount of time they have.
But these shows just go too early and make declarations every week, and then get made to look silly soon after. It happens every year, except this year it's worse due to how open the top 8 race is.
So if you want to see some decent footy analysis you just need to make sure you ignore their sweeping declarations.
On the Couch is pretty good as well I find, then if you like listening to mouth-farts for an hour you can watch AFL360.
But these shows just go too early and make declarations every week, and then get made to look silly soon after. It happens every year, except this year it's worse due to how open the top 8 race is.
So if you want to see some decent footy analysis you just need to make sure you ignore their sweeping declarations.
On the Couch is pretty good as well I find, then if you like listening to mouth-farts for an hour you can watch AFL360.
Coaches' Votes
10 - Ollie Wines (PORT)
6 - Willem Drew (PORT)
4 - Miles Bergman (PORT)
4 - Charlie Curnow (CARL)
3 - Aliir Aliir (PORT)
2 - Travis Boak (PORT)
1 - Jason Horne-Francis (PORT)
10 - Ollie Wines (PORT)
6 - Willem Drew (PORT)
4 - Miles Bergman (PORT)
4 - Charlie Curnow (CARL)
3 - Aliir Aliir (PORT)
2 - Travis Boak (PORT)
1 - Jason Horne-Francis (PORT)
Yep. Really thought we had turned a corner and were more 'trustworthy' as you put it, but apparently not.
Not a serious footy side yet. Which sucks as they definitely had a chance to go all the way this year, looking like another somewhat wasted year with Cripps in his prime.
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I think either of those options help but McKay is more than a forward option. He's a hell of an option when trying to get out of our back half. Also for a Key Forward he isn't particularly selfish, he seems to look to bring his team mates into the game rather than just trying to score.
We had way to many players not doing the team thing in the forward half.
I didn't include JSOS because he's not been an option all year. He also is limited. I do love his endeavour and footy brain but I don't this he's vital to our structure like McKay is
** sorry for the delayed response
I disagree re: JSoS.
He takes the 2nd ruck and allows McKay to stay forward next to Charlie 24/7.
Works well with Charlie and Harry and provides space for them to do their thing.
Makes the 3rd man up in the opposition defensive team accountable and hits the scoreboard in most occasiona.
His is one our biggest defensive play makes in our forward and locks the ball in. Competes at every opportunity and at worse brings the ball to ground.
He is the best 3rd tall in the game, but we it seems, as supporters still don't value, and even after missing this year, still don't appreciate or acknowledge him.
Astounded to be honest.
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- May 2, 2015
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Everyone talking about Mckay being out. Our biggest loss by far IMO was Blake Acres. His 2 way running and ability to get back and help in defence is so important. So critical to our structure.
Yeah big loss
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