2024 Rolling ALL-Australian Team

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The 747 said:
Yes players who play every game are more valuable than players who don't play every game.

Because the player who plays every game winds up with more output.

It's not really a difficult thing to grasp and I am sure you would be fine with it if it didn't happen to go against your argument.

Quality, by the way, is a concept that means nothing without a definition.
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The conversation is irrelevant because we’re clearly talking about two different things.

AA as an example, picks players who’ve been better on average in less games than those who played all games. This happens, hence using averages with how many games played to get a better picture than totals.

Stewart a couple years ago mixed a few games, tagged in others and still made AA due to his high quality in the rest of the games. His totals were way below his competition, but his averages were up there, and the quality of his games were better, hence being selected.
 
HeHateMe said:
Going off league totals Sam Taylor is also =12th for intercepts and Jack Scrimshaw is =6th.
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Totals are just the inferior way to use statistics.

No point using 1 stat, better off using none and just giving an opinion. Use all stats, with context. Otherwise it’s pointless. Totals are irrelevant and averages are much more important Inc games played. Simple.
 

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Who cares, Sicily is behind a bunch of other defenders.
 
eth-dog said:
33rd amongst defenders for score involvements
17th for score launches
=16th for intercept marks
=12th for intercepts

Nah, he's nowhere near where he needs to be for AA. Wouldn't be in the squad at this point.
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minimum 10 games - averages

among defenders

=6th for score launches
=4th for marks
=4th for intercept possessions
10th for intercept marks
=10th for rebounds
 
Dewyyyyy said:
minimum 10 games - averages

among defenders

=6th for score launches
=4th for marks
=4th for intercept possessions
10th for intercept marks
=10th for rebounds
Click to expand...
Cool. In totals, the things they look at, for relevant stats, I listed them above.

But continue your crusade. If he can get his totals somewhat closer to the medium defenders I listed (Ryan, Blakey and Houston) he could get in the side. I'd probably have Vlaustin ahead as well, but he's a bit behind the other three as well.
 
eth-dog said:
Cool. In totals, the things they look at, for relevant stats, I listed them above.

But continue your crusade. If he can get his totals somewhat closer to the medium defenders I listed (Ryan, Blakey and Houston) he could get in the side. I'd probably have Vlaustin ahead as well, but he's a bit behind the other three as well.
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They would look at both and probably lean towards averages due to the fact they pick players who play less games than others! 🙏

^^^

But yes continued form the way he’s going compared to earlier he will rise.
 
Unglamorous and won’t prick the interest of stats watchers but I’d like to see the likes of Liam Jones recognised at least in the squad. Happy to accept he’s behind Andrews and Weitering but I’m not convinced others mentioned such as Pearce and May are currently in better form.
 
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Northernsoul74 said:
Unglamorous and won’t prick the interest of stats watchers but I’d like to see the likes of Liam Jones recognised at least in the squad. Happy to accept he’s behind Andrews and Weitering but I’m not convinced others mentioned such as Pearce and May are currently in better form.
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I heard Jones does not believe in the AA despite the obvious scientific evidence the All Australian team exists so he should not be included.
 

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Dewyyyyy said:
Was okay before injury, but since then has been by far the best Hawthorn defender and would be top 3 easily for the competition. Continues this form and he makes it.
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About as likely as Stewart at this stage. Their seasons are practically the inverse of each other

Neither should be close
 
Jeremias said:
Careful. Someone is about to get upset at you. :(
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Doesn't really matter when I am correct.
Apparently Sicily has gone from not even mentioned in the AA selection meeting to the team in 2 games
 
eth-dog said:
Cool. In totals, the things they look at, for relevant stats, I listed them above.

But continue your crusade. If he can get his totals somewhat closer to the medium defenders I listed (Ryan, Blakey and Houston) he could get in the side. I'd probably have Vlaustin ahead as well, but he's a bit behind the other three as well.
Click to expand...

I agree Sicily is probably more in the squad than in the team right now, but in fairness to him, he plays a pretty different role than the likes of those you have listed so the comparison is a little difficult. I mean he is a medium sized defender who is attacking but he is asked to play on the likes of Joe Daniher whereas someone like Dan Houston is an attacking 'high' half back flanker who is given little to no defensive responsibility whatsoever, let alone asked to play on someone like Daniher.

Backing this up - looking at the stats - Houston has only been involved in 8 defensive one on one contests all year! (and I imagine none of those would be matched up against the opposition's best forward, let alone one 15 cm bigger than him). Sicily has twice as many spoils as Houston and way more intercepts - basically way more in all of the 'defensive' measures. It's not really surprising then that a player like Houston might just shade Sicily on stats like score involvements, particularly when also playing in a higher scoring team.

In Essendon terms, it would be like saying current day Dyson Heppell has more score involvements than late career Dustin Fletcher (when he was less strict full back and more a roaming tall defender that also rebounded). Heppell may get more score involvements but the roles being played are very different making that stat pretty irrelevant - and it certainly wouldn't suggest Heppell is better.
 
eth-dog said:
33rd amongst defenders for score involvements
17th for score launches
=16th for intercept marks
=12th for intercepts

Nah, he's nowhere near where he needs to be for AA. Wouldn't be in the squad at this point.
Click to expand...
Misleading use of statistics there, eth-dog. How about we look at the game averages instead of the totals ?
...and leave out all the guys who've played less than a handful of games :rolleyes:

Sicily is in the top 10 for most of those stats...

=4th for intercept possessions
10th for intercept marks
9th amongst defenders for score launches.


Intercept Possessions
  1. Sam Taylor......... 8.9
  2. Sam Collins........ 8.8
  3. Tom Stewart....... 8.4
  4. Nick Vlastuin....... 8.2
  5. Mac Andrew........ 8.2
  6. James Sicily...... 8.2
  7. Jack Scrimshaw... 8.2
  8. Harris Andrews.... 8.1
  9. Liam Jones......... 8.0
  10. Jake Lever.......... 8.0


Intercept Marks
  1. Harris Andrews... 4.1
  2. Sam Taylor......... 4.0
  3. Charlie Comben.. 3.7
  4. Liam Jones......... 3.6
  5. Tom Barrass....... 3.5
  6. Sam Collins........ 3.2
  7. Jake Lever.......... 3.1
  8. Mac Andrew........ 3.1
  9. Steven May......... 3.0
  10. James Sicily...... 2.9


Score Launches [Defenders]
  1. Luke Ryan............. 2.5
  2. Jeremy McGovern... 2.4
  3. Dan Houston.......... 2.1
  4. Sam Flanders......... 1.9
  5. Nick Blakey............ 1.9
  6. Tom Stewart.......... 1.9
  7. Jack Scrimshaw...... 1.8
  8. Jack Sicily............ 1.8
  9. Dayne Zorko.......... 1.7
  10. Ryan Lester, Nic Newman, Darcy Moore, Bailey Dale, Andy McGrath, Max Holmes, Harris Andrews


The "score involvements amongst defenders" which you've mentioned is dominated by half backs who play through the midfield. 90% of the "defenders" ahead of Sicily are the rebounding HB receivers: Sinclair, Holmes, Houston, Martin, Zorko, Flanders, Dale, Wanganeen, Whitfield, Sheezel, Duncan, Florent, J.Clark, Rivers, Farrell, Johannisen, Aish, Amon, Perryman, D.Rioli

Newman, Ryan, Blakey and Sexton are the only full-time defenders I can see who are in the top 30 ahead of Sicily.


Sicily doesn't hang his hat on these stats anyway. It's the quality of his play. His main value to Hawthorn is his calmness and poise under pressure and his penetrative, pinpoint kicking. Easily one of the best backmen in the AFL when it comes to finding his own footy & winning contests and then spotting up an open teammate 55m away in the centre corridor. Do they have a stat for that? Probably best measured by Champion Data's player ratings for overall effectiveness


Champion Data player ratings - Key defenders, med defenders
  1. Max Holmes..... 16.01
  2. Jack Sinclair..... 15.29
  3. Harry Sheezel.. 14.89
  4. Dan Houston.... 14.49
  5. Bailey Dale...... 13.95
  6. Nick Blakey...... 13.61
  7. Sam Collins...... 13.48
  8. James Sicily... 13.01
  9. Sam Flanders... 12.65
  10. Luke Ryan........ 12.60
  11. Tom Barrass..... 12.19
  12. Jer. McGovern... 12.08

^^^ the top 5 are half back/midfielders


So, I strongly disagree with your misguided assessment that he's "nowhere near where he needs to be for AA and wouldn't be in the squad". I suggest you pull your head out of your backside, stop passing off misleading stats and try watching a few Hawthorn games.

What would count against Sicily's AA chances was his mixed form early on the season when the whole team played poorly and the Hawk defenders were up against it. It's possible that the most vocal, opinionated selectors (Cornes and Buckley) have marked his card based on a couple of bad games. (It's the reverse of "recency bias"... the early-season "lock em in" syndrome).

Since the 0-5 start however, Sicily has been one of the main men responsible for Hawthorn's mid-season resurgence. He sits easily amongst the top backmen in the AFL. Definitely in any sensible conversation about the likely All Australian defenders.
 
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Back One Out said:
Misleading use of statistics there, eth-dog. How about we look at the game averages instead of the totals ?
...and leave out all the guys who've played less than a handful of games :rolleyes:

Sicily is in the top 10 for most of those stats...

=4th for intercept possessions
10th for intercept marks
9th amongst defenders for score launches.


Intercept Possessions
  1. Sam Taylor......... 8.9
  2. Sam Collins........ 8.8
  3. Tom Stewart....... 8.4
  4. Nick Vlastuin....... 8.2
  5. Mac Andrew........ 8.2
  6. James Sicily...... 8.2
  7. Jack Scrimshaw... 8.2
  8. Harris Andrews.... 8.1
  9. Liam Jones......... 8.0
  10. Jake Lever.......... 8.0


Intercept Marks
  1. Harris Andrews... 4.1
  2. Sam Taylor......... 4.0
  3. Charlie Comben.. 3.7
  4. Liam Jones......... 3.6
  5. Tom Barrass....... 3.5
  6. Sam Collins........ 3.2
  7. Jake Lever.......... 3.1
  8. Mac Andrew........ 3.1
  9. Steven May......... 3.0
  10. James Sicily...... 2.9


Score Launches [Defenders]
  1. Luke Ryan............. 2.5
  2. Jeremy McGovern... 2.4
  3. Dan Houston.......... 2.1
  4. Sam Flanders......... 1.9
  5. Nick Blakey............ 1.9
  6. Tom Stewart.......... 1.9
  7. Jack Scrimshaw...... 1.8
  8. Jack Sicily............ 1.8
  9. Dayne Zorko.......... 1.7
  10. Ryan Lester, Nic Newman, Darcy Moore, Bailey Dale, Andy McGrath, Max Holmes, Harris Andrews


The "score involvements amongst defenders" which you've mentioned is dominated by half backs who play through the midfield. 90% of the "defenders" ahead of Sicily are the rebounding HB receivers: Sinclair, Holmes, Houston, Martin, Zorko, Flanders, Dale, Wanganeen, Whitfield, Sheezel, Duncan, Florent, J.Clark, Rivers, Farrell, Johannisen, Aish, Amon, Perryman, D.Rioli

Newman, Ryan, Blakey and Sexton are the only full-time defenders I can see who are in the top 30 ahead of Sicily.


Sicily doesn't hang his hat on these stats anyway. It's the quality of his play. His main value to Hawthorn is his calmness and poise under pressure and his penetrative, pinpoint kicking. Easily one of the best backmen in the AFL when it comes to finding his own footy & winning contests and then spotting up an open teammate 55m away in the centre corridor. Do they have a stat for that? Probably best measured by Champion Data's player ratings for overall effectiveness


Champion Data player ratings - Key defenders, med defenders
  1. Max Holmes..... 16.01
  2. Jack Sinclair..... 15.29
  3. Harry Sheezel.. 14.89
  4. Dan Houston.... 14.49
  5. Bailey Dale...... 13.95
  6. Nick Blakey...... 13.61
  7. Sam Collins...... 13.48
  8. James Sicily... 13.01
  9. Sam Flanders... 12.65
  10. Luke Ryan........ 12.60
  11. Tom Barrass..... 12.19
  12. Jer. McGovern... 12.08

^^^ the top 5 are half back/midfielders


So, I strongly disagree with your misguided assessment that he's "nowhere near where he needs to be for AA and wouldn't be in the squad". I suggest you pull your head out of your backside, stop passing off misleading stats and try watching a few Hawthorn games.

What would count against Sicily's AA chances was his mixed form early on the season when the whole team played poorly and the Hawk defenders were up against it. It's possible that the most vocal, opinionated selectors (Cornes and Buckley) have marked his card based on a couple of bad games. (It's the reverse of "recency bias"... the early-season "lock em in" syndrome).

Since the 0-5 start however, Sicily has been one of the main men responsible for Hawthorn's mid-season resurgence. He sits easily amongst the top backman in the AFL. Definitely in any sensible conversation about the likely All Australian defenders.
Click to expand...
Look I'm as big a fan of Sicily as anyone but I wouldn't have him near the AA team this year. Have there been any other defenders named in peoples teams who have had 4-5 genuinely poor games? Unlikely.
 
Back One Out said:
Since the 0-5 start however, Sicily has been one of the main men responsible for Hawthorn's mid-season resurgence. He sits easily amongst the top backman in the AFL. Definitely in any sensible conversation about the likely All Australian defenders.
Click to expand...
WalshistheGOAT said:
Look I'm as big a fan of Sicily as anyone but I wouldn't have him near the AA team this year. Have there been any other defenders named in peoples teams who have had 4-5 genuinely poor games? Unlikely.
Click to expand...
LOL.

I'll back the judgement of Back One Out
 
Back One Out said:
Misleading use of statistics there, eth-dog. How about we look at the game averages instead of the totals ?
...and leave out all the guys who've played less than a handful of games :rolleyes:

Sicily is in the top 10 for most of those stats...

=4th for intercept possessions
10th for intercept marks
9th amongst defenders for score launches.


Intercept Possessions
  1. Sam Taylor......... 8.9
  2. Sam Collins........ 8.8
  3. Tom Stewart....... 8.4
  4. Nick Vlastuin....... 8.2
  5. Mac Andrew........ 8.2
  6. James Sicily...... 8.2
  7. Jack Scrimshaw... 8.2
  8. Harris Andrews.... 8.1
  9. Liam Jones......... 8.0
  10. Jake Lever.......... 8.0


Intercept Marks
  1. Harris Andrews... 4.1
  2. Sam Taylor......... 4.0
  3. Charlie Comben.. 3.7
  4. Liam Jones......... 3.6
  5. Tom Barrass....... 3.5
  6. Sam Collins........ 3.2
  7. Jake Lever.......... 3.1
  8. Mac Andrew........ 3.1
  9. Steven May......... 3.0
  10. James Sicily...... 2.9


Score Launches [Defenders]
  1. Luke Ryan............. 2.5
  2. Jeremy McGovern... 2.4
  3. Dan Houston.......... 2.1
  4. Sam Flanders......... 1.9
  5. Nick Blakey............ 1.9
  6. Tom Stewart.......... 1.9
  7. Jack Scrimshaw...... 1.8
  8. Jack Sicily............ 1.8
  9. Dayne Zorko.......... 1.7
  10. Ryan Lester, Nic Newman, Darcy Moore, Bailey Dale, Andy McGrath, Max Holmes, Harris Andrews


The "score involvements amongst defenders" which you've mentioned is dominated by half backs who play through the midfield. 90% of the "defenders" ahead of Sicily are the rebounding HB receivers: Sinclair, Holmes, Houston, Martin, Zorko, Flanders, Dale, Wanganeen, Whitfield, Sheezel, Duncan, Florent, J.Clark, Rivers, Farrell, Johannisen, Aish, Amon, Perryman, D.Rioli

Newman, Ryan, Blakey and Sexton are the only full-time defenders I can see who are in the top 30 ahead of Sicily.


Sicily doesn't hang his hat on these stats anyway. It's the quality of his play. His main value to Hawthorn is his calmness and poise under pressure and his penetrative, pinpoint kicking. Easily one of the best backmen in the AFL when it comes to finding his own footy & winning contests and then spotting up an open teammate 55m away in the centre corridor. Do they have a stat for that? Probably best measured by Champion Data's player ratings for overall effectiveness


Champion Data player ratings - Key defenders, med defenders
  1. Max Holmes..... 16.01
  2. Jack Sinclair..... 15.29
  3. Harry Sheezel.. 14.89
  4. Dan Houston.... 14.49
  5. Bailey Dale...... 13.95
  6. Nick Blakey...... 13.61
  7. Sam Collins...... 13.48
  8. James Sicily... 13.01
  9. Sam Flanders... 12.65
  10. Luke Ryan........ 12.60
  11. Tom Barrass..... 12.19
  12. Jer. McGovern... 12.08

^^^ the top 5 are half back/midfielders


So, I strongly disagree with your misguided assessment that he's "nowhere near where he needs to be for AA and wouldn't be in the squad". I suggest you pull your head out of your backside, stop passing off misleading stats and try watching a few Hawthorn games.

What would count against Sicily's AA chances was his mixed form early on the season when the whole team played poorly and the Hawk defenders were up against it. It's possible that the most vocal, opinionated selectors (Cornes and Buckley) have marked his card based on a couple of bad games. (It's the reverse of "recency bias"... the early-season "lock em in" syndrome).

Since the 0-5 start however, Sicily has been one of the main men responsible for Hawthorn's mid-season resurgence. He sits easily amongst the top backman in the AFL. Definitely in any sensible conversation about the likely All Australian defenders.
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I'd advise you to stop getting upset about it.

It's not misleading. It's fact based. He had a poor to average start to the year. I'm a fan of his but that counts against him.

He can get there. I said he isn't close to where he needs to be right now. I didn't say he's no chance.

As for the reason I use totals in these sorts of stats is because they show the proper size of the gap. You look at the average score launches per game and the difference between 3rd and 9th on your list is 0.4 per game, hardly anything.

But keep getting offended over the fact I have Sicily the 4th or 5th best medium defender this year.
 
eth-dog said:
I'd advise you to stop getting upset about it.

It's not misleading. It's fact based. He had a poor to average start to the year. I'm a fan of his but that counts against him.

He can get there. I said he isn't close to where he needs to be right now. I didn't say he's no chance.

As for the reason I use totals in these sorts of stats is because they show the proper size of the gap. You look at the average score launches per game and the difference between 3rd and 9th on your list is 0.4 per game, hardly anything.

But keep getting offended over the fact I have Sicily the 4th or 5th best medium defender this year.
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Yeah, if Sicily goes gangbusters to the end of the year and Hawthorn have a strong finish I don't think anyone would be questioning his selection. But when we're 14 games in and the first third of those were fairly poor by AA standards, I don't see how one can make the case for him being in. The players he's up against in that position have barely had a bad game between them.
 
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