List Mgmt. 2024 Trade & List Management Thread - Part 3

[giantroo]

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Picks

 

[Ashley B]

Tell me what has been magic beans about top 14 picks where we have been concerned?

Other than Phillips in a Covid destroyed year.

These have been our top 14 picks (which is what Houston will cost + more)

McKercher (2)
Duursma (4)
Sheezel (3)
Wardlaw (4)
Horne-Francis (1)
Phillips (3)
Powell (13)
2019* (traded out of the strongest draft of the last 10 years ~ Caleb Serong taken at our natural pick)
Thomas (8)
LDU (4)
Simpkin (12)



What exactly is magic beans about the above? They make up a large majority of our current best players and best and fairest prospects.

Maybe we can use the analogy that many many top 10 picks together take time. But in all seriousness we have accumulated a few there all quite similar size ,maybe that’s our issue.

 

[The Nostradamus]

If we are dumb enough to involve 25 in any deal then we should’ve done this imo

Then used one of those picks on Daniel

 

[Flawed Genius]

Tell me what has been magic beans about top 14 picks where we have been concerned?

Other than Phillips in a Covid destroyed year.

These have been our top 14 picks (which is what Houston will cost + more)

McKercher (2)
Duursma (4)
Sheezel (3)
Wardlaw (4)
Horne-Francis (1)
Phillips (3)
Powell (13)
2019* (traded out of the strongest draft of the last 10 years ~ Caleb Serong taken at our natural pick)
Thomas (8)
LDU (4)
Simpkin (12)



What exactly is magic beans about the above? They make up a large majority of our current best players and best and fairest prospects.

They are all magic beans. They are wonderful players and I am glad the ones who are still on our list are there. I absolutely agree that they form huge parts of our best prospects, and they are the spine of what should hopefully be our push up the ladder in the next few years. But let's not pretend like each and every one of them could have gone in another direction, could have been another player if not for multiple permutations in different universes. JHF was magic beans. Sheezel was magic beans. That's all draft picks are.

We've gotten really lucky that we have picked high quality players with our magic beans who have turned into excellent prospects. But we arguably ****ed it with the Serong draft, the Phillips pick... Thomas too & JHF for non football reasons.

My point is not that having draft picks is bad, nor that we have done a bad job with the ones we've had. My point is that trading a future first in a compromised draft AFTER we have taken nine or ten first rounders in the last 7-8 years, and built our young elite prospects list quite considerably, for a PROVEN elite player who can help guide those prospects for the next five to six years and help them enter their prime, is not necessarily a terrible decision.

 

[Sphynx]

Agree, but its an option available, and an example that demonstrates how its a fallacy to suggest we won't have space for them in the best 23 if Houston was traded in.

It seems to me that a lot of these debates are proxies for two distinct camps around here.

One wants us to become immediately competitive, sees that as a strategic priority in itself, and is prepared to use draft capital to make that happen.

The other wants to retain a draft-heavy focus at all costs because that's what we set out to do back in 2017 and they think any substantial deviation from that risks throwing the project further off-course.

There's obviously pros and cons for either, but clearly I'm in the former camp and Houston helps with that mission.

Im not saying we won't have space for them.

It's opportunity cost.

We have far more pressing needs than that role to recruit.

We actively sought senior bodies last year for that role. We drafted another first round prospect in that role, who with another full preseason should be more ready for AFL footy this coming season.

We then parked a top 3 pick there.

That's also not to say we couldn't use Pick 2 on a FOS and play him there also for the time being.


In regards to the wing, we have one of the most damaging young players I have ever seen with the ability to play the wing, which we parked at half back last season.

We aren't recruiting Dan Houston to play on the wing.

 

[The b shart]

West coast saw this trade and said hold my beer

 

[New_Roo]

saints obviously rate the depth in the draft

More probably doing it for Macrae? 27 too much but now choice of leaser picks


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[backtothedraft]

This trade period has singlehandedly ruined the future of the club..

Current completed trades; Jack Darling

28

Jack Darling

Age

32

Ht

191cm

Wt

95kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.1

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

4.2

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.0

2star

K

4.3

2star

HB

3.7

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

2.4

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

14.6

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.0

5star

M

6.0

5star

T

4.0

5star

G

1.4

5star

for Pick 67

 

[Daniltchenko You Beauty]

This trade period has singlehandedly ruined the future of the club..

Current completed trades; Jack Darling for Pick 67

Have a lie down

 

[Devski]

Have a lie down

man needs a snickers

 

[LeFtBehinD]

saints obviously rate the depth in the draft

Or they just don't want to pay 27 for Macrae

 

[BrownPaperBag]

My point there is, we have completely wasted list capital in a position we never needed in reality.

Houston is absolutely better than what we have. But the question is, in 2-3 seasons is he going to be that much better as a 30 year old than what Riley Hardeman is going to be for the next 200 games that we need to forgo picking one of the best KPF's or Small Forwards in this draft, a potential 200+ game player in a real list hole?

It's similar to what we probably have done with Goad, had we known Xerri was about to have a breakout season like he had. I doubt we make that pick in that position in the draft this season. Sometimes you need to wait and see what they are after 30-50 games.

If you invest draft capital (particularly top 20 picks), you have to spend the time developing them to determine if we need better, otherwise it's better spent elsewhere.

We have made this mistake continually over the last 10-15 years.

We go through periods of picking a glut of KPD's, then it's a glut of medium forwards, then it's a glut of midfielders, then it's a glut of half back flankers.

Ok

First off acquisitions of fisher and Stephens were pretty much forced due to having to trade those picks we managed to use that in a way that got us a small pick upgrade so it’s fine. When a kid is ready they take their place.

We still have a number of players not up to afl standard and unlikely to develop to be so.

Looking at our core going forward they are all incumbents anyway but let’s face it there’s still room in the 22 for players our results dictate that it does appear the way we are trying to acquire experience is still allowing for drafting of younger players all of this is designed to balance an at present unbalanced list.

Houston/Parker/darling at present can help develop our core and we still have options for draftees.

Caleb Daniel sure less happy

 

[GCS in 11]

Hi, just interested to see if this deal would work for you guys? It requires us having a backbone and Houston giving up on Collingwood but it’s much better for Port

GC 13 for Saints F1/F2

Saints 7 + 13 for North 2

North 7 + 25 for Houston

North
Lose: 2, 25
Gain: Houston, 13

Saints
Lose: F1, F2, 7
Gain: 2

Suns
Lose: 13
Gain: Saints F1, F2

Port
Lose: Houston
Gain: 7 + 25

 

[hoffseason gains 01]

I think if we get Houston and we kick on a bit. We may become an attractive destination for above average free agents to fill out our list next year.

 

[kirbonavich]

Racism scandal, TT saga. Houston as an Aboriginal man would be taking this into consideration.

 

[Sphynx]

They are all magic beans. They are wonderful players and I am glad the ones who are still on our list are there. I absolutely agree that they form huge parts of our best prospects, and they are the spine of what should hopefully be our push up the ladder in the next few years. But let's not pretend like each and every one of them could have gone in another direction, could have been another player if not for multiple permutations in different universes. JHF was magic beans. Sheezel was magic beans. That's all draft picks are.

We've gotten really lucky that we have picked high quality players with our magic beans who have turned into excellent prospects. But we arguably ****ed it with the Serong draft, the Phillips pick... Thomas too & JHF for non football reasons.

My point is not that having draft picks is bad, nor that we have done a bad job with the ones we've had. My point is that trading a future first in a compromised draft AFTER we have taken nine or ten first rounders in the last 7-8 years, and built our young elite prospects list quite considerably, for a PROVEN elite player who can help guide those prospects for the next five to six years and help them enter their prime, is not necessarily a terrible decision.

You are making a similar false assumption as what some of our recruiters did commit in the Serong draft.

Was viewed as a weak draft 12 months out compared to what was viewed as a really strong draft a year later. So we traded out of it and into 2020 (Didn't/Couldn't forsee Covid obviously...)

It's also what we did with the Polec pick. 'We don't need another R1 pick, because we already have Thomas coming.' (Not what you said, but was the reasoning at the time).

Anyone saying with complete conviction that next years draft is weak, or completely compromised is talking shit. Yes there are a number of top prospects in acadamies at the moment.

Was also said the same last year with the Camporeale boys as a major consideration in the top 20 picks. Where are they now?

Last year was declared an incredibly weak draft the year prior. Didn't end that way. The top 10 of last years draft was declared as incredibly strong compared to the forecasted one in 2024. Wrong again.

Draft strength and makeup changes completely 12 months out.

Sheezel was a second round prospect 12 months out.

Smillie, FOS and Trainor were some of the #1 pick favourite this time last year.

The likes of Travaglia, Armstrong, Langford, Tauru nowhere near it.

Drafts tend to get stronger on average, as the depth fleshes out in the top age year.


We don't know EXACTLY where the academy prospects will fall, or where they are bid on, or even the exact bidding structure. They are still making up the rules as they go along.

There is a possibility that our pick if it's a top 2 or a 3 pick (which I consider it, until proven otherwise) falls before some of these bids, thus making it even more valuable that what is viewed now, not weaker.

 

[JGreezy]

Racism scandal, TT saga. Houston as an Aboriginal man would be taking this into consideration.

I don't think that you can assume Houston's thoughts on either of those topics

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Racism scandal, TT saga. Houston as an Aboriginal man would be taking this into consideration.

Houston was not listed as an Indigenous on Poortas website.

 

[Tiberius]

Racism scandal, TT saga. Houston as an Aboriginal man would be taking this into consideration.

Are you suggesting race was a factor in the TT situation?

 

[DocSholl]

Hi, just interested to see if this deal would work for you guys? It requires us having a backbone and Houston giving up on Collingwood but it’s much better for Port

GC 13 for Saints F1/F2

Saints 7 + 13 for North 2

North 7 + 25 for Houston

North
Lose: 2, 25
Gain: Houston, 13

Saints
Lose: F1, F2, 7
Gain: 2

Suns
Lose: 13
Gain: Saints F1, F2

Port
Lose: Houston
Gain: 7 + 25

We're not going to drop that far back in this draft. Any trade will be centred around F1

 

[Joshen]

Racism scandal, TT saga. Houston as an Aboriginal man would be taking this into consideration.

To go to Collingwood?

I think the simpler explanation is that we have sucked for half a decade.

 

[perplexed]

Hi, just interested to see if this deal would work for you guys? It requires us having a backbone and Houston giving up on Collingwood but it’s much better for Port

GC 13 for Saints F1/F2

Saints 7 + 13 for North 2

North 7 + 25 for Houston

North
Lose: 2, 25
Gain: Houston, 13

Saints
Lose: F1, F2, 7
Gain: 2

Suns
Lose: 13
Gain: Saints F1, F2

Port
Lose: Houston
Gain: 7 + 25

I think Houston should be a straight swap for pick 7. We shouldn't have to throw in 25 as well. Otherwise it looks fine.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Hi, just interested to see if this deal would work for you guys? It requires us having a backbone and Houston giving up on Collingwood but it’s much better for Port

GC 13 for Saints F1/F2

Saints 7 + 13 for North 2

North 7 + 25 for Houston

North
Lose: 2, 25
Gain: Houston, 13

Saints
Lose: F1, F2, 7
Gain: 2

Suns
Lose: 13
Gain: Saints F1, F2

Port
Lose: Houston
Gain: 7 + 25

Doubt saints do that.

 

[Only Forwards]

Racism scandal, TT saga. Houston as an Aboriginal man would be taking this into consideration.

List of Port Adelaide's First Nations players in the AFL, SANFL and AFLW body text

The official AFL website of the Port Adelaide Football Club

www.portadelaidefc.com.au

Is he of indigenous descent?

He's not listed here.

 

[The Nostradamus]

Expect tigers to offer 6 and 14 for 2

Once Rioli and Bolton done

Do we say no unless they make it 6 and 10

Or maybe 6,14 and 23 for 2 and 25

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Those lauding Carlton for their trade to WC should note they have up next year's 1st and 2nd pick plus Owies to climb 9 spots.