List Mgmt. 2024 Trade & List Management Thread

[DuckYeah]

Fyi - average salary for an AFL footballer in 2027 is expected to be $519,000, and if you're expecting him to be an above-average player (ranked 10-15 out of 45 or so on the list), his salary will be higher than a lot of people might expect.

Thats not how averages work. Especially when at least one or two players on each list could suck up between 10% - 20% of the Tpp.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Thats not how averages work. Especially when at least one or two players on each list could suck up between 10% - 20% of the Tpp.

Mate, it's exactly how averages work.

 

[New_Roo]

I guess the current view of the club under clarkson is that we don't want solid but brilliance.

Zoohaaaa and scott took us to a position where we are past the worst of bottoming, their jobs are done and for the benefit of both parties, they leave and we get in players suited to the next phase of footballing.

The two won't get any better and right now, we can maximise their value.

Also in anticipation for 2028, it's about stockpiling draft picks and getting players we need.

Seriously? What a load of crap. Bailey is only 23 and zurhaar 26 both can improve. Keep Bailey off hb and he can do a role similar to Langdon at dees when won premiership or equally acres who was discarded at two clubs before finding a role at blues.

Zurhaar, at least have the respect to spell his name correctly, will only benefit further with another tall in there alongside Larkey. Already seen his input improve with teaks and pink in there, taking that 2nd tall def meaning Zurhaar takes the 3rd which a lot more suited to.

Disclaimer obviously with Scott is pay what he is worth... Zurhaar deserves his big pay day but again within reason


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[Danni_Benson]

The only way we would get Harley if he came back is if the groundwork Clarko laid last year sowed some serious seeds

. Plus the upward rise of our team. Timing is everything.

 

[Sphynx]

Yeah. But Collingwood have a bold and cunning plan. Don’t go to the bottom of the ladder:
Magpies president Jeff Browne told the Herald Sun earlier this year the club would aggressively target rival stars.

“We don’t intend to go to the bottom of the ladder, so we can never really rely on the draft,” Browne said.

If you go through their current list, they’ve got a window of 3-4 seasons imo.

Crisp, Moore, Cameron, Maynard, De Goey fit in that group. They will be early-mid 30’s and on the decline

Howe, Pendles, Sidebottom, Elliott, Mihocek, Mitchell, Cox will probably all retire inside that period.

Schultz and Zurhaar aren’t going to move the needle.

You can see why they are going to go so hard for LDU.

They are going to be a massive player in FA pretty much every year for the next 5 years. They have a lot of cap space opening up in that period.

They have no other choice. They have 3 players under 21 or younger on their entire list and one of those is Daicos and virtually no picks this year.

They are morphing into a Geelong style list profile.

If they didn’t get kissed on the dick with Daicos after trading away pick 2, they’d be completely farked atm

 

[ferball]

Thats not how averages work. Especially when at least one or two players on each list could suck up between 10% - 20% of the Tpp.

How do averages work then?

 

[DuckYeah]

Mate, it's exactly how averages work.

How do averages work then?

The average player wont be getting the average wage. They’ll be below average wages. When you divvy the entire tpp by players by the 38 players on the primary list you get the average wage. That part is correct. Now Take 20% off and divide it by 36 players on the primary list. Your average wage is now significantly lower.

So saying, Baily (average player/s) would be on higher than the average wage is misleading. Baily would be lucky to be on 400k.

 

[king of the road]

If you go through their current list, they’ve got a window of 3-4 seasons imo.

Crisp, Moore, Cameron, Maynard, De Goey fit in that group. They will be early-mid 30’s and on the decline

Howe, Pendles, Sidebottom, Elliott, Mihocek, Mitchell, Cox will probably all retire inside that period.

Schultz and Zurhaar aren’t going to move the needle.

You can see why they are going to go so hard for LDU.

They are going to be a massive player in FA pretty much every year for the next 5 years. They have a lot of cap space opening up in that period.

They have no other choice. They have 3 players under 21 or younger on their entire list and one of those is Daicos and virtually no picks this year.

They are morphing into a Geelong style list profile.

If they didn’t get kissed on the dick with Daicos after trading away pick 2, they’d be completely farked atm

I agree.

I was being a bit facetious to illustrate the Collingwood big club hubris and arrogance.

We just plan to be great, everyone wants to come to us cos we’re big, we’ll get all the best players wanting to come to us so we’ll get them for unders via trades and never have to bottom out.

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.

 

[ferball]

The average player wont be getting the average wage. They’ll be below average wages. When you divvy the entire tpp by players by the 38 players on the primary list you get the average wage. That part is correct. Now Take 20% off and divide it by 36 players on the primary list. Your average wage is now significantly lower.

Okay I agree with that.

So saying, Baily (average player/s) would be on higher than the average wage is misleading. Baily would be lucky to be on 400k.

He's finished top three in our B&F on multiple occasions tho. That suggests he is worth more than the average North player.

 

[DuckYeah]

Okay I agree with that.



He's finished top three in our B&F on multiple occasions tho. That suggests he is worth more than the average North player.

And if we want to get better and strive for finals, be a genuine contender. He is an average player.

 

[JGreezy]

Fyi - average salary for an AFL footballer in 2027 is expected to be $519,000, and if you're expecting him to be an above-average player (ranked 10-15 out of 45 or so on the list), his salary will be higher than a lot of people might expect.

I don't think that he's 10-15 on a good side.

But I also don't think it's about just averaging salary. It's about value over replacement and the market for that role.

Also, the median is different to the mean.

 

[ferball]

And if we want to get better and strive for finals, be a genuine contender. He is an average player.

He is a limited player but his work rate off the ball is a mile above average and as a result he gives us better than average value.

 

[7577969923]

Okay I agree with that.



He's finished top three in our B&F on multiple occasions tho. That suggests he is worth more than the average North player.

I like Bailey but he has not played as well this year as the previous two. It's not ideal in the last year of a contract.

I think he is one of those players we would like to keep, but we will be very conscious about cost and where he sits in the pecking order. With a finite amount of salary cap to play with there are probably a dozen or so players that will be prioritized above him. If he's happy with the sort of money that implies and doesn't receive a materially larger offer from elsewhere he probably stays. That's probably somewhere around the average salary mark.

The absolute priorities we would want to pay I would thin are:

LDU, Sheezel, Wardlaw, Larkey, McKercher, Comben, Simpkin, Logue, Dursma, Xerri, Zurhaar, 2024 Pick 1, potential second KPF

Bailey sits in the next grouping with guys like Ford, Archer, Fisher, Bergman, Curtis, and a few others.

 

[New_Roo]

I don't think that he's 10-15 on a good side.

But I also don't think it's about just averaging salary. It's about value over replacement and the market for that role.

Also, the median is different to the mean.

Definitely think replacement value is key.... do we have ready made players that can step in on the wing, def not hb, maybe.... in Stephens, Tucker, CT and Ford still working out best positions for them... so if we think we have a ready made and can also get a mid 20s pick for him, that would make it interesting...

If we don't then I'd be keeping him, other more pressing needs


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[big_e]

The average player wont be getting the average wage. They’ll be below average wages. When you divvy the entire tpp by players by the 38 players on the primary list you get the average wage. That part is correct. Now Take 20% off and divide it by 36 players on the primary list. Your average wage is now significantly lower.

So saying, Baily (average player/s) would be on higher than the average wage is misleading. Baily would be lucky to be on 400k.

Firstly, I never said Bailey Scott would be on a higher-than-average salary, I simply said his salary will be higher than people expect.

Based on the figures in this article, there were 660 players on the main list at AFL clubs in 2023. Exactly half (330) were paid in the $100,000 to $400,000 range. So the average was about $40k higher than the median, which is not a significant difference, IMO.

Now, given AFL clubs regularly engage in contract shenanigans with front-loading, etc, who earns what in any given year is a bit of a lottery, but given the overall wage increases (average rising from $387k in 2022 to $519k in 2027), I think it's fair to assume an experienced, solid (ie not a star) best-22 player to be getting somewhere around or just above the average wage.

Which brings me back to a line that I deleted from my previous post which probably would have saved me some time and effort on this one - don't freak out when you find that Bailey Scott is asking for half a million bucks a year.

 

[7577969923]

Firstly, I never said Bailey Scott would be on a higher-than-average salary, I simply said his salary will be higher than people expect.

Based on the figures in this article, there were 660 players on the main list at AFL clubs in 2023. Exactly half (330) were paid in the $100,000 to $400,000 range. So the average was about $40k higher than the median, which is not a significant difference, IMO.

Now, given AFL clubs regularly engage in contract shenanigans with front-loading, etc, who earns what in any given year is a bit of a lottery, but given the overall wage increases (average rising from $387k in 2022 to $519k in 2027), I think it's fair to assume an experienced, solid (ie not a star) best-22 player to be getting somewhere around or just above the average wage.

Which brings me back to a line that I deleted from my previous post which probably would have saved me some time and effort on this one - don't freak out when you find that Bailey Scott is asking for half a million bucks a year.

Nowhere near the big deal that would've been as recently as two or three years ago. 3 x $450k to $500k would be realistic I suspect.

 

[LB2Snake]

I agree.

I was being a bit facetious to illustrate the Collingwood big club hubris and arrogance.

We just plan to be great, everyone wants to come to us cos we’re big, we’ll get all the best players wanting to come to us so we’ll get them for unders via trades and never have to bottom out.

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.

Annoyingly though, it ****ing works. The game is fully corrupt

 

[chubbspeterson]

Ask anyone what has caused the shitshow of recent years and the letting go of experienced players is close to the top of every list.

You won't get much of an argument that moving on guys in their mid-30s is fine, nor delisting those who spend years on the list for a game here or there (or even less often).

But Bailey Scott and Cameron Zurhaar have stuck with us through the worst period the club's been through in half a century, I don't blame them for wanting to see if the grass really is greener on the other side.

In an environment where accepted wisdom is to pay overs for B-graders, it makes no sense at all to willingly let go of solid best 22 players who are in their mid-20s and with 100 games under their belt.

And if all we get in return are draft picks, the outcome is that we become a feeder club, in a perpetual state of rebuild, always three years away from finals.

Bailey Scott is precisely the sort of middle-of-the-road role player that lets the stars do their thing. Won't make many highlight reels is but immensely important to structure - set and forget for the next few years.

And if Cam Zurhaar says he wants to see improvement before re-signing and then he stays, the boost around the club will be massive. If he means he gets paid a hundred grand more than he "deserves", so be it. Worth every cent.

They aren't willingly being let go if they look to explore options themselves.
We've offered Cam a contract, the decision is his and we can match and he either stays or we trade.
All we can do is use the pick if he leaves to correct the list balance given we have far too many half forwards on our list.

As for Bailey, we don't really have much wing depth but his ball use over time might see him down the pecking order.
If Bailey chooses to leave, that's up to him. We don't know what the thinking is from the club. They might think Zane/Fordy/Taylor can do the wing role and provide more an aerial threat or think somebody they are looking to draft like FOS/Smith/Draper/Lalor coud do it, so perhaps it makes sense to let Bailey explore options before he's squeezed out.

I suspect they're waiting for the Cam situation to resolve before they contract Ford/Phillips/Scott/Taylor?/Laz?.

 

[ChairmanZia]

I want to keep Bailey but I don't think that he's in your 10 best players if you're a finals side, or your 15 best if you're a premiership contender. So his salary has to reflect that.

His disposal has improved but his mistakes, when they happen, just become so costly.

You almost have to wonder sometimes if it's deliberate. He won't just miss a forward, he'll kick it to the exact defend who is perfectly positioned to rebound fast.

On the weekend he was good, but he had one turnover where he was under pressure and centred a handball to 5 demons players at the top of the 50, who were in an unstoppable position. Like, you have to know the spots that you don't dump the ball to.

Even if his disposal efficiency isn't bad, it feels like every bad disposal leads to a goal, when I'm watching him.

He wont be by the end of 2026, so if he is to be traded, now is the best time.

 

[ChairmanZia]

He is a limited player but his work rate off the ball is a mile above average and as a result he gives us better than average value.

And that's what plagued us under brad in that we had a plethora who would average but had good rate instead of having the players who are best suited to their intended position.

 

[FootySmartSimpson]

I want to keep Bailey but I don't think that he's in your 10 best players if you're a finals side, or your 15 best if you're a premiership contender. So his salary has to reflect that.

His disposal has improved but his mistakes, when they happen, just become so costly.

You almost have to wonder sometimes if it's deliberate. He won't just miss a forward, he'll kick it to the exact defend who is perfectly positioned to rebound fast.

On the weekend he was good, but he had one turnover where he was under pressure and centred a handball to 5 demons players at the top of the 50, who were in an unstoppable position. Like, you have to know the spots that you don't dump the ball to.

Even if his disposal efficiency isn't bad, it feels like every bad disposal leads to a goal, when I'm watching him.

You need 30 reliable, good players to win a premiership.

Bailey is reliable and good. Sometimes he makes mistakes. Sometimes he has moments of desperate brilliance. Always runs his heart out.

Madness for North to push him out.

 

[shintemaster]

Definitely think replacement value is key.... do we have ready made players that can step in on the wing, def not hb, maybe.... in Stephens, Tucker, CT and Ford still working out best positions for them... so if we think we have a ready made and can also get a mid 20s pick for him, that would make it interesting...

If we don't then I'd be keeping him, other more pressing needs


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It's also about replacement timing. We need someone equivalent when hitting top 4, not necessarily tomorrow. If we think we have that on the list already or can easily get that between now and 2026 then the equation changes.

 

[FootySmartSimpson]

I like Bailey but he has not played as well this year as the previous two. It's not ideal in the last year of a contract.

I think he is one of those players we would like to keep, but we will be very conscious about cost and where he sits in the pecking order. With a finite amount of salary cap to play with there are probably a dozen or so players that will be prioritized above him. If he's happy with the sort of money that implies and doesn't receive a materially larger offer from elsewhere he probably stays. That's probably somewhere around the average salary mark.

The absolute priorities we would want to pay I would thin are:

LDU, Sheezel, Wardlaw, Larkey, McKercher, Comben, Simpkin, Logue, Dursma, Xerri, Zurhaar, 2024 Pick 1, potential second KPF

Bailey sits in the next grouping with guys like Ford, Archer, Fisher, Bergman, Curtis, and a few others.

Scott is so much more a priority than Zurhaar. It’s not even funny.

Zurhaar is the fizz in your can of coke. Scott is your water.

 

[ChairmanZia]

You need 30 reliable, good players to win a premiership.

Bailey is reliable and good. Sometimes mistakes. Sometimes has moments of desperate brilliance. Always runs his heart out.

Madness for North to push him out.

At the afl level, being reliable is a must, just like being punctual at workplaces.

The old school of thoughts under laidley and scott was that of having a bunch of 'reliable' players but I don't think clarkson just want reliable but want the most suitable player for each of the positions and with versatility.

 

[pupstar]

At the afl level, being reliable is a must, just like being punctual at workplaces.

The old school of thoughts under laidley and scott was that of having a bunch of 'reliable' players but I don't think clarkson just want reliable but want the most suitable player for each of the positions and with versatility.

If that's the case why did he pick up Tucker Howe