List Mgmt. 2024 Trade Thread - No.2

[St Neil]

Because they'd get a second rounder to use to match for the bid if/when it comes. Like has been mentioned here over and over.

What I'm thinking is why wouldn't they play ball with GWS and get their two teen picks and use one to dump on Kaku and one to use legit?

Look at the points associated with the Draft Value Index.

If a bid came in at pick 5 for Kako then Bombers would need to find 1,878 points less a 20% discount = 1,502 points.

The combined number of points for picks 15 & 16 (1,112 + 1,067) is 2,179.

2,179 - 1,502 = 677 points leftover. Pick 15 would be absorbed by matching the bid and pick 16 would be shuffled back to the draft pick closest to (and under) 677 points.

That would be pick 28.

So even trading back, all Essendon would be left with is pick 28 and any subsequent picks in the draft.

Better to trade pick 9 into a future first and offset the match of DVI points with later picks.


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[Mat Mann]

Because they'd get a second rounder to use to match for the bid if/when it comes. Like has been mentioned here over and over.

What I'm thinking is why wouldn't they play ball with GWS and get their two teen picks and use one to dump on Kaku and one to use legit?

if they traded for 15 & 16 then they definitely would use all of 15 and eat into 16 to match on Kako, so they again trade out of rnd 1 and maybe get a second pick in change, they simply can't hand over 15 and their 2nd pick, the points are removed from the order of picks held

so say he gets bid on at P10 that's 1395 points

15 is worth 1112 - all gone
16 is worth 1067 - so minus 283 points remaing leaves 784 points

they would be given pick 23-24 in change

both 1st rnd picks are gone and they just blew 1355 points (pick 9 value) to do it

extremely bad list management

 

[stavro#4]

As I said above, Essendon won't trade back from 9. They'll either trade up ahead of the Kako bid or out of the first round this year.

They would rather bank a future first round pick from a side that is likely to miss the 8 than burn a premium pick like #15 on an academy player

Do you see Essendon improving next year?


Because it’s likely their future first could be between p2-6 next year.

So I highly doubt they are trading P9 and that pick for at best pick 3

 

[jimmytigs]

View attachment 2135335

lets hope he can handle first ruck for the saints as well as he can handle that

 

[austinnn]

You could just answer the question instead of giving a glib dickheaded remark.

I've never seen the word dickhead or dickheaded used as an adjective before, bravo

 

[Armoooo]

Bergman reminds me of Sinclair minus the elite disposal. A decent interceptor, but I think he has hit his ceiling now.

He's not even 23 yet, I still reckon he has scope for improvement.

He's also much better in the air than Sinclair due to his extra size.

I think he's a tidier version of Sam Gilbert who at his best was a very handy player.

 

[triggering bro]

So Membrey to the Injectors and another compo pick - Hopefully between 27 -44

I have a feeling we will get nothing

 

[snails13]

Sorry if this has already been on this forum,but there is a story on Zero Hanger re who the Sainters are looking at from Sandy Zebs

 

[Banger9798]

There's not really any reason for Essendon to trade pick 9 until the night comes and/if a bid comes is there? Haven't been following that side of things.

Except they'd risk losing it on the night

 

[bird_man]

I’m so confused, why would dons give us pick 9 for our future first, don’t they still need points this year for their academy player?

You'd think we'd need to give up more in that trade rather than just a straight swap of picks.

 

[Armoooo]

I have a feeling we will get nothing

Membrey will get a 2 year deal on a pretty low salary and he is over 30.

0% chance we get a compo pick for him.

 

[Moorabbin Ghost]

Dickheadedness

 

[Tommy Wigs]

You can see the CLEAR media bias towards Collingwood in all this chat.

You can get ****ed if you think John Noble is worth anything more than a low second round pick. Pick 29 is already overs. But for some reason, Gold Coast should just be r*ped and pillaged by Collingwood? Just because?

GC should just trade pick 41 (maybe 29 if they've got enough Lombard points) for Noble and take the best separate offer for pick 13.

This might have been covered since I was on in the morn and I know this is not directly Saints related but could show how much those picks are worth …

now Carlton are offering F1 and F2, while Pies have that same offer. So if you say that both clubs’ F1s are equivalent to pick 13, Carlton are adding an F2 and Collingwood are asking for the 23 back (essentially for Noble). Big difference between the two IMO.

 

[tristenlvm]

Thanks for that. Makes me feel a lot more confident now. Love this more and more.

 

[HeavenlySources]

Id present two offers to Essendon

We’ll give you Pick 27 + F1 for 9 (and late Future back) IF you trade ahead of time.

IF you wait until the bid on draft night you’ll get F1st thats it.

Up to them if they want to play a game of chicken with us, they won’t get a better Future 1st rounder than ours.

 

[sufficientintent]

Do you see Essendon improving next year?


Because it’s likely their future first could be between p2-6 next year.

So I highly doubt they are trading P9 and that pick for at best pick 3

Personally I think they're destined for 10-15, but they could also capture their form for the first half of the year and finish 4th. Who knows?

Point is, if the Essendon list management team think they'll improve, 9 + F1 for WC's pick 3 is the better deal. If they don't think they'll improve, 9 for our (or another team's) F1 is the better deal.

In any case I don't see a trade with another team that gets them ahead of us - North don't want to go back to 9, Melbourne want to get back into the first round this year rather than next, and Adelaide and Richmond aren't trading pick 4 and 6 respectively unless its massive overs.

 

[stavro#4]

I have a feeling we will get nothing

Membrey will get a 2 year deal on a pretty low salary and he is over 30.

0% chance we get a compo pick for him.

How small a salary do you think he will get?

I reckon we get something we can use in all these point shenanigans

 

[Armoooo]

Id present two offers to Essendon

We’ll give you Pick 27 + F1 for 9 (and late Future back) IF you trade ahead of time.

IF you wait until the bid on draft night you’ll get F1st thats it.

Up to them if they want to play a game of chicken with us, they won’t get a better Future 1st rounder than ours.

What I don't like about this is that if they don't take the early offer and we end up deciding not to bid at pick 8, we have egg on our face.

If we do choose to bid at 8, there is a chance, however remote, that we end up drafting a player that may not be our first choice for that pick.

 

[stavro#4]

Personally I think they're destined for 10-15, but they could also capture their form for the first half of the year and finish 4th. Who knows?

Point is, if the Essendon list management team think they'll improve, 9 + F1 for WC's pick 3 is the better deal. If they don't think they'll improve, 9 for our (or another team's) F1 is the better deal.

In any case I don't see a trade with another team that gets them ahead of us - North don't want to go back to 9, Melbourne want to get back into the first round this year rather than next, and Adelaide and Richmond aren't trading pick 4 and 6 respectively unless its massive overs.

But it’s not what Essendon think.

It’s what the eagles think and why would they trade 3 for 9 and a future first that’s 12?

They could take Jagga or Draper and get 2 first rounders in 2 years

That’s a better deal everyday of the week.

 

[Banger9798]

I have a feeling we will get nothing

If we did get a late pick with the Membrey FA, I'd like to see us use it on draft night to bid on Damien Barrett.

(Come on, I dare you!)

 

[triggering bro]

How small a salary do you think he will get?

I reckon we get something we can use in all these point shenanigans

I suspect it would be quite low. There aren’t clubs competing for his signature.

 

[TheNewEnsign]

Do you see Essendon improving next year?


Because it’s likely their future first could be between p2-6 next year.

So I highly doubt they are trading P9 and that pick for at best pick 3

Yeah I think if there's even a sniff Essendon trade out their F1 we (and everyone else) should be all over it. Second leading goal kicker in Stringer looks set to leave, 2MP has regressed back to his average form line (which is crap) and I'm still a bit shocked Kyle Langford of all people has become a good medium-forward but he's going to be easy for teams to cover if they lack other scoring options.

The best they could do is play Harry Jones as a KPF and hope Caddy comes on super fast but that really, really looks like a recipe for a Bottom 3 finish.

 

[stavro#4]

What I don't like about this is that if they don't take the early offer and we end up deciding not to bid at pick 8, we have egg on our face.

If we do choose to bid at 8, there is a chance, however remote, that we end up drafting a player that may not be our first choice for that pick.

Let’s clarify that. Strong interest.

 

[ThomasR]

Id present two offers to Essendon

We’ll give you Pick 27 + F1 for 9 (and late Future back) IF you trade ahead of time.

IF you wait until the bid on draft night you’ll get F1st thats it.

Up to them if they want to play a game of chicken with us, they won’t get a better Future 1st rounder than ours.

Very lucky that we are the only club interested in Pick 9 so they have to deal exclusively with us

 

[stavro#4]

I suspect it would be quite low. There aren’t clubs competing for his signature.

I think he will be above average salary and a few years and trigger a pick