List Mgmt. 2024 Trade Thread - No.2

[Armoooo]

How small a salary do you think he will get?

I reckon we get something we can use in all these point shenanigans

Well given we're about halfway through the free agency period and there really doesn't seem to have been a nibble, it would suggest he's not exactly an in demand player.

If we value his ongoing presence so little we're encouraging him to explore his options, why would we be paying him much? Good will for his years of service? I doubt it.

If we're not offering big money, why would another club go much higher? If his choice is 1 year at the saints on stuff all or unemployment, it wouldn't take too enticing an offer to secure his services.

 

[Joffaboy]

You could just answer the question instead of giving a glib dickheaded remark.

Been answered dozens of times. Instead of abuse if you feel so strongly, answer it yourself.

 

[Armoooo]

Let’s clarify that. Strong interest.

Let's do a thought experiment. If we thought Kako was going to be a massive bust, but were planning on making a bid just to get leverage on Essendon, what would we say to the media?

There's no way of knowing whether that "strong interest" is genuine or just planting the seeds of doubt in Essendons mind.

 

[sufficientintent]

Id present two offers to Essendon

We’ll give you Pick 27 + F1 for 9 (and late Future back) IF you trade ahead of time.

IF you wait until the bid on draft night you’ll get F1st thats it.

Up to them if they want to play a game of chicken with us, they won’t get a better Future 1st rounder than ours.

27 + F1 for 9 and F2. Should be done before draft night if the Dons are smart

 

[stavro#4]

Let's do a thought experiment. If we thought Kako was going to be a massive bust, but were planning on making a bid just to get leverage on Essendon, what would we say to the media?

There's no way of knowing whether that "strong interest" is genuine or just planting the seeds of doubt in Essendons mind.

He is the best small forward in this draft and likened to Watson at the Hawks.

He is very very good. There is little doubt about his credentials

 

[Joffaboy]

If we do choose to bid at 8, there is a chance, however remote, that we end up drafting a player that may not be our first choice for that pick.

There is less than zero chance of that occurring

 

[tassiesaint2024]

Id present two offers to Essendon

We’ll give you Pick 27 + F1 for 9 (and late Future back) IF you trade ahead of time.

IF you wait until the bid on draft night you’ll get F1st thats it.

Up to them if they want to play a game of chicken with us, they won’t get a better Future 1st rounder than ours.

The thing is. It makes absolutely no sense for them to wait until draft night. None. What I think is missing from the whole scenario.

Kako is probably a reach at 8. There’s a good chance he doesn’t get bid on until 15, without us doing the bombers dirty.

If we take 9 for the pick swap, then there will be a handshake agreement not to bid on him. Means he probably goes 12-15. We don’t do that deal and we bid at 8.

Neither Richmond (potentially) or the shockers are crying out for small forwards (maybe freo more so). They have the pick after the bombers. If Carlton trade 12 for Houston, there’s a live chance Kako doesn’t get bid on until GWS at 15. Means if we chuck in a second rounder now to sweeten the deal, the scumbags are exponentially better off doing the deal now, rather than waiting for draft night.

Maybe they run the gauntlet. But if we are serious about bidding at 8, it’s an absolute no brainer.

 

[sufficientintent]

But it’s not what Essendon think.

It’s what the eagles think and why would they trade 3 for 9 and a future first that’s 12?

They could take Jagga or Draper and get 2 first rounders in 2 years

That’s a better deal everyday of the week.

It is - that's where the trade is valuable to the Eagles, if Essendon think they're going to be good and the Eagles think that Essendon are going to be shit. You trade 3 for 9 and 3

Personally I don't think the Eagles will take that - unless Essendon finish bottom 4 next year, 3 for 9 + F1 is a very good deal for Essendon and just an ok deal for WC

 

[bird_man]

I think he will be above average salary and a few years and trigger a pick

Apparently Jack Graeme was close to 600k x 4 and got the Tigers band 4.

I think we will be lucky to get a pick for Membrey with the lack of interest in him right now. At best band 5.

 

[Joffaboy]

Very lucky that we are the only club interested in Pick 9 so they have to deal exclusively with us

Which club has a better deal than what he proposed?

 

[austinnn]

Let’s clarify that. Strong interest.

Why not? The way the game is going, a couple of elite small forwards could light us up. Collard and Kako bzzing round our forward 50 soaking up anything that King Sharman and Camaniti don't mark, good luck to any oppo defenders. We'll still get ourselves a top mid along with Pou, Steele, Garcia, Wilson, maybe McCrae and so on.

I'd be happy with that result if the Dons don't want to put their balls on the line.

 

[beside the seaside]

The more you think about it it's a great position to be in with the picks ahead of Essendon and Kako sitting there.

You'd think Essendon has to call the bluff and risk us not bidding on him don't you?

If we get our hands on 9 and have 789 in this draft it would be nuts.

 

[Armoooo]

There is less than zero chance of that occurring

Let's say North and Richmond take talks and there are 3 gun mids available, for all we know, one of them could be Essendons number 1 pick, this might be there only way to get him. I don't think it's likely by any means, but it is still a possibility. I don't think it's wise to leave the destiny of an asset as valuable as pick 8 in another clubs hands.

If we make a bid with pick 8, it is more likely that they trade pick 9 for a future first. But why does it necessarily need to be with us, there would probably be a heap of clubs putting up their future first on the table so I don't think we can expect massive overs.

None of the scenarios being spelt out seem to be the sure-fire win a lot of us seem to expect to be a certainty.

If it were me, the scenario I would be hoping for is that there are 3 players we want available at our pick. We pick our favourite with 7, then tell essendon we will trade pick 8 and our future second for pick 9 and their future first.

If we get to our picks and there are only 2 players we really like left, then we pick them.

I don't want to see a bid made for Kako unless he is the player we want at that pick.

 

[Hayes4PM]

Membrey would be 3rd round compo or nothing, Essendon would have to offer him 3 years and not just a base salary you'd reckon. Keeping in mind their mystery chook lotto is about contract length, wage and age. He’s 30, so we’re getting **** all regardless.

 

[sufficientintent]

Which club has a better deal than what he proposed?

Carlton could easy ignore GC's pick 13 and offer Essendon F1 + 34 for 9. Plenty of other hypotheticals you could drum up.

Incredibly naive to say that we're the only club Essendon could deal with

 

[Armoooo]

Which club has a better deal than what he proposed?

Do we know the saints have proposed anything?

If pick 27 and our future first is such an amazing deal, why wouldn't Gold Coast offer Pick 22 and their future first?

They have just as much reason to want to fast track their development as we do.

It would give them pick 9 to replace the pick 13 that's likely going to Collingwood or Carlton.

 

[sufficientintent]

Do we know the saints have proposed anything?

If pick 27 and our future first is such an amazing deal, why wouldn't Gold Coast offer Pick 22 and their future first?

They have just as much reason to want to fast track their development as we do.

It would give them pick 9 to replace the pick 13 that's likely going to Collingwood or Carlton.

GC aren't trading any future picks - a million academy prospects next year they need to match bids for

 

[bird_man]

Do we know the saints have proposed anything?

If pick 27 and our future first is such an amazing deal, why wouldn't Gold Coast offer Pick 22 and their future first?

They have just as much reason to want to fast track their development as we do.

It would give them pick 9 to replace the pick 13 that's likely going to Collingwood or Carlton.

Gold Coaat are more interested in next year's pick than now apparently.

But you are right, that there would be many others queing up for pick 9 if it is in fact on the table.

 

[beside the seaside]

Do we know the saints have proposed anything?

If pick 27 and our future first is such an amazing deal, why wouldn't Gold Coast offer Pick 22 and their future first?

They have just as much reason to want to fast track their development as we do.

It would give them pick 9 to replace the pick 13 that's likely going to Collingwood or Carlton.

Suns have Lombard though so face the same issue

 

[CHBench]

AFL gonna pull their herbs and spices and give us nothing/below expectations for Membrey to square up the perceived overs for Battle

 

[Goddardwetrust]

There won’t be a need to draft hard next year.

It will be Free agent time.

Do you know who we .maybe targeting for aside from Brayshaw?

 

[Tommy Wigs]

Essendon won't trade back from 9. They'll either trade up ahead of the Kako bid or out of the first round this year. Using a premium pick like #15 for Kako would be completely at odds with the whole benefit of the points matching system for NGAs.

They might get a pick in the 30s for Stringer, then that will allow them to go 9 + F1 to Melbourne for 5 (if Melbourne have their eye on a KPP and can cop the slide knowing us and Richmond will pick midfielders) and use the Stringer pick + 31 for Kako.

You feel as though North or West Coast might bite as well, but Essendon would need to throw in something else on top of 9 + F1 to get North/WC interested

North if they swap back to 6 in a trade with Richmond for p2. North may feel their target could be had at 9 or a second one and finish up with a bunch of pick from Richmond and Essendon. Unlikely, but possible. Worse for us too as that 6 could switch away from a tall.

 

[Joffaboy]

Let's say North and Richmond take talks and there are 3 gun mids available, for all we know, one of them could be Essendons number 1 pick, this might be there only way to get him. I don't think it's likely by any means, but it is still a possibility. I don't think it's wise to leave the destiny of an asset as valuable as pick 8 in another clubs hands.

If we make a bid with pick 8, it is more likely that they trade pick 9 for a future first. But why does it necessarily need to be with us, there would probably be a heap of clubs putting up their future first on the table so I don't think we can expect massive overs.

None of the scenarios being spelt out seem to be the sure-fire win a lot of us seem to expect to be a certainty.

If it were me, the scenario I would be hoping for is that there are 3 players we want available at our pick. We pick our favourite with 7, then tell essendon we will trade pick 8 and our future second for pick 9 and their future first.

If we get to our picks and there are only 2 players we really like left, then we pick them.

I don't want to see a bid made for Kako unless he is the player we want at that pick.

-Kako has been in their system since he was 12
-has been sold heavily to the Essendon Supporters
- for any credibility Essendon just cannot afford not to take him
-White and Cooney was discussing this on SEN and White said the exact same things.

There is no way Kako ends up anywhere but Essendon.

But lets look at the absolute remote possibility we bid and Essendon dont match.

-We get a fantastic small forward who is the next Kossi Pickett or Watson
- We get a great mid at 7
-We use pick 27 on a great slider
-We keep our Future first

Essendon
-Miss out on their marquee selection

• They only have one pick in the draft
• They miss out on a Future First.
• Explain that to the one or two Essendon supporters who have more than two brain cells.

As for only taking the best on our list. We will never know because they will say just that.

 

[FQFjt]

Do we know the saints have proposed anything?

If pick 27 and our future first is such an amazing deal, why wouldn't Gold Coast offer Pick 22 and their future first?

They have just as much reason to want to fast track their development as we do.

It would give them pick 9 to replace the pick 13 that's likely going to Collingwood or Carlton.

If history is any guide, Essendon would take that and run, but I doubt Gold Coast would make that offer — it could amount to picks ~4 and 22 for pick 9. Then again, GC have made far worse trades in their past.

 

[my name was taken]

Everyone on saints and bomber board