List Mgmt. 2024 Young Talent Time (Drafting)

[Snuffaluphagus]

 

[noobermensch]

Bo Allan helped Peel Thunder to a WAFL flag to sign off his season in style. Playing mostly through the middle and rocking the frosted tips, Allan was a big part of a relentless, swarming defensive effort from Peel, ending the game with 6 tackles to his name. He wasn't as prolific at finding the footy, especially outside the contest, which has been the one question mark hovering over his senior WAFL performances for Peel. Recruiters will be grappling with whether they believe he has the natural footy IQ needed to pair with his elite physical attributes in order to develop into a dominant midfielder in time.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Bo Allan helped Peel Thunder to a WAFL flag to sign off his season in style. Playing mostly through the middle and rocking the frosted tips, Allan was a big part of a relentless, swarming defensive effort from Peel, ending the game with 6 tackles to his name. He wasn't as prolific at finding the footy, especially outside the contest, which has been the one question mark hovering over his senior WAFL performances for Peel. Recruiters will be grappling with whether they believe he has the natural footy IQ needed to pair with his elite physical attributes in order to develop into a dominant midfielder in time.

I was there and I felt thus game was a good snapshot of my biggest concerns. His attack, size, speed and intent is fantastic but I feel like his disposal is a big enough concern that he should be falling to around 20 when you consider the other talent around his ranking.

Give the power he has, maybe he legit will be like a Danger where it's not a big issue but I don't know, seems a big risk.

 

[nurries]

I was there and I felt thus game was a good snapshot of my biggest concerns. His attack, size, speed and intent is fantastic but I feel like his disposal is a big enough concern that he should be falling to around 20 when you consider the other talent around his ranking.

Give the power he has, maybe he legit will be like a Danger where it's not a big issue but I don't know, seems a big risk.

I think disposal was one of the main reasons Chad Warner went as low as he did

 

[Dockeroo]

I think disposal was one of the main reasons Chad Warner went as low as he did

I think that’s the risk with those types with iffy disposal but huge explosiveness.
But for every danger and Warner, there’s dozens that don’t have that explosive pace or just are not that good.

I guess it’s up to the recruiters to find them and judge will they be like that from their u18 performances

 

[nurries]

I think that’s the risk with those types with iffy disposal but huge explosiveness.
But for every danger and Warner, there’s dozens that don’t have that explosive pace or just are not that good.

I guess it’s up to the recruiters to find them and judge will they be like that from their u18 performances

Yep you have to back in your system to improve it. It’s a lot easier to fix disposal than to make someone more explosive in a football power/speed sense

 

[Alfonz]

I think disposal was one of the main reasons Chad Warner went as low as he did

Yeah, lack of finesse and kicking penetration is mentioned on the rookieme profile. But it also mentiones explosiveness and speed as weaknesses. Compares him to Jack Redden. Seems so weird after watching him. Either he has improved his junior weaknesses out of sight after being drafted, or the draft watchers weren't watching close enough.

Don't think it was a genius pick by Sydney. They just got super lucky. They picked Stephens, Gould and Taylor before Warner. All genuine duds. Hard to do in a superdraft. Sydney recruiters had no idea that year and was a pure fluke with Warner.

 

[Taylor]

Chad Warner

1

Chad Warner

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

2star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

4star

CL

0.0

1star

worked hard on Chad Warner

1

Chad Warner

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

2star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

4star

CL

0.0

1star

and Sydney benefited.

 

[theGav56]

Out of curiosity what do you value our 2025 first round pick at, if it doesn’t equate?


But an F1 is probably the same value as pick 10!!!

I think a lot of people are allowing their impatience get the better of them when co side g the value of a future first rounder.

Remember this time last year we actively turned down pick 19 from the pies (their pick) in favour of their future first which has turned out to be pick 10.

Would you guys have said last October that pick 10 this year is worth more or less than pick 19 last year?

Future seconds and thirds are slightly different as they are more affected by buds and easier to obtain.

In my view future firsts are some of the most undervalued currency in AFL trading.

With the addition of Bolton and the natural progression associated with a young side I wouldn't value it as the same as this year. We are more likely to finish higher than lower.

In addition, the known standard of this year's draft prospects provides a certainty which also adds value.

Somewhere around pick 16+

 

[Purple Suit]

I think that’s the risk with those types with iffy disposal but huge explosiveness.
But for every danger and Warner, there’s dozens that don’t have that explosive pace or just are not that good.

I guess it’s up to the recruiters to find them and judge will they be like that from their u18 performances

The bull inside mids seem to always go later than the smooth mover mids. Danger, Cripps and Fyfe all in the 10-20 range, although Fyfe wasn't a Bull as a junior.

 

[Rhufus]

Elite kicking, (ala Young) would probably be my number 1 trait to look for in someone we draft.

 

[Dockeroo]

With the addition of Bolton and the natural progression associated with a young side I wouldn't value it as the same as this year. We are more likely to finish higher than lower.

In addition, the known standard of this year's draft prospects provides a certainty which also adds value.

Somewhere around pick 16+

I’d imagine every club would have a projected value for every other clubs first round pick in 2025.
We should have a board from 1-18 ranking where we think each club will finish in 2025 based on the best unbiased information we have available to us.

I would suggest most club overvalue their own picks in the following year. There is at least 14 clubs that are convinced they will be top 8 next year and benefit from natural progression and a good injury run. Collingwood an excellent case in point from last year.

The real value of our future first is the opportunity cost of using it though.

If we were to use it I think we are out of the Chad Warner picture in 2025. Snuffaluphagus has already made this point.

For that reason alone, I think it’s worth a lot more to us than the nominal value attached to it (16 in your case, I’m personally a little less optimistic but think maybe pick 13 is a good bet for our F1 future actual value).

 

[theGav56]

I’d imagine every club would have a projected value for every other clubs first round pick in 2025.
We should have a board from 1-18 ranking where we think each club will finish in 2025 based on the best unbiased information we have available to us.

I would suggest most club overvalue their own picks in the following year. There is at least 14 clubs that are convinced they will be top 8 next year and benefit from natural progression and a good injury run. Collingwood an excellent case in point from last year.

The real value of our future first is the opportunity cost of using it though.

If we were to use it I think we are out of the Chad Warner picture in 2025. Snuffaluphagus has already made this point.

For that reason alone, I think it’s worth a lot more to us than the nominal value attached to it (16 in your case, I’m personally a little less optimistic but think maybe pick 13 is a good bet for our F1 future actual value).

For me there is value of trading in a F1 if our list already has significant numbers of players in development (as we do). High draft picks especially need to see how they fit and how they can get that opportunity.

Trading into the future spreads the talent in terms of age.

But the more likely use is as trade capital.

 

[eastfreo75]

For me there is value of trading in a F1 if our list already has significant numbers of players in development (as we do). High draft picks especially need to see how they fit and how they can get that opportunity.

Trading into the future spreads the talent in terms of age.

But the more likely use is as trade capital.

I agree.

No point getting a talented first round pick only for him to leave for more opportunities. Players tend to lose value if they are not getting a game.

Personally I would like for the club to trade out of positions in drafts where there is a lot Melbourne kids.

Push trading out gives us more opportunity to get ready made players who can fill a weak straight away.

Our list is pretty young and ascending. Rather push the car down the road and get more future picks.

 

[pK75]

I agree.

No point getting a talented first round pick only for him to leave for more opportunities. Players tend to lose value if they are not getting a game.

Personally I would like for the club to trade out of positions in drafts where there is a lot Melbourne kids.

Push trading out gives us more opportunity to get ready made players who can fill a weak straight away.

Our list is pretty young and ascending. Rather push the car down the road and get more future picks.

I’d agree, and if would could bring in Pickett or Warner this year would be all over trading pick 10, however if it’s just Bolton coming in there’s definitely room for a small forward in our starting 22 next year if they’re good enough, so brining in a Berry or Hannaford would be a good option for us.

 

[Azz 27]

I agree.

No point getting a talented first round pick only for him to leave for more opportunities. Players tend to lose value if they are not getting a game.

Personally I would like for the club to trade out of positions in drafts where there is a lot Melbourne kids.

Push trading out gives us more opportunity to get ready made players who can fill a weak straight away.

Our list is pretty young and ascending. Rather push the car down the road and get more future picks.

I don't think our best 22 is that good, that a good first round draft picks could not find a role. Especially if they were quick, and could play on the outside, or were a good small forward.


Walters, Banfield, Aish, Fyfe won't play much this year.
JOM should be pushed out of the 22 next year.

Worner or Wagner could be pushed out of the 22 for a good player.
So could Frederick.

I think trading out would be silly, unless we have small forward we want late. THere is a good a reason Geelong are taking 9 picks in this draft

 

[Docker82]

If Bo Allan was an elite kick he'd be the no.1 pick and easily.

 

[Ge3ks]

THere is a good a reason Geelong are taking 9 picks in this draft

Cos their list is old as ****.

 

[Purpletown]

If we are going to be a realistic chance for a premiership then we need as many players as possible to be fighting for places in the best 23 right now.

The sooner that happens the better. We need established players or draftees in the squad now.

If reasonable players find it hard to get a game well and good. If some get pushed out then we are heading in the right direction.

And we need to look very hard at moving on the veterans who's output is falling. We need to be ruthless right now as we have the makings of a team that can challenge for a flag in the next few years.

 

[mayne iac]

Id be happy with Berry and Bolton

 

[arsesmart]

I would love to follow the Geelong model.



They are never stupid enough to target contracted players, and then pay overs to get them. Especially for players who are getting paid overs on their current contract.

They target top 20 players in the comp like Dangerfield and Cameron, and get them for unders.

They target free agents, or depth players and get them with late picks.

They target mature age players, identify them brilliantly and then draft them.



How is Bolton similar to what Geelong have done.

The closer trade Geelong have done to Bolton, is trading out Kelly and that turned out brilliant for them

I think this is more your impression than detail of what Geelong have actually done (nevermind "pay overs" being a very vague and rubbery measure).

They gave up quite a bit to bring in both Dangerfield and Cameron. And hindsight has hidden it, but there was some questions at the time of both trades (especially Dangerfield) that they didn't have to give up so much and/or the draft might better suit their list management requirements.

FWIW I do see lots of parallels with us this year and the 2006 Geelong positioning.

 

[AstonSouffle]

We have reasonable depth on every line, that suggests to me that it's top up time - as long as we don't go out and buy an 80k caravan, when a used 30k one would do just as well (and better because you've also got 50k still).

But way too many people on here are saying get the 100k caravan, then realise after the fact they need a car to actually tow it, and they're in a holding pattern of debt for the next 5 years (see Port Adelaide, and Melbourne in the last few years).

We need to hold onto a draft pick (out of the major four that we have) and get Bolton, no ifs or buts - if they don't do this, the trade period will have been a lost opportunity.

 

[Paracleet]

Allen could easily go higher than where he is in Twomey's current rankings (12?). He's certainly not going 20. Fyfe, Cripps and Dangerfield have 5 of the last 10 Brownlows and they aren't great kicks either.

His strength in the contest and burst through and out of stoppage sure is something.

 

[Azz 27]

Allen could easily go higher than where he is in Twomey's current rankings (12?). He's certainly not going 20. Fyfe, Cripps and Dangerfield have 5 of the last 10 Brownlows and they aren't great kicks either.

His strength in the contest and burst through and out of stoppage sure is something.

If you had to add one to our best 22, does Allan , Berry, or an out side mid fit easier.

Not sure you want Allan playing off half back, and won't get much time in middle.

We still have Erasmus and Johnson to squeeze in

 

[ignoramus]

We have reasonable depth on every line, that suggests to me that it's top up time - as long as we don't go out and buy an 80k caravan, when a used 30k one would do just as well (and better because you've also got 50k still).

But way too many people on here are saying get the 100k caravan, then realise after the fact they need a car to actually tow it, and they're in a holding pattern of debt for the next 5 years (see Port Adelaide, and Melbourne in the last few years).

We need to hold onto a draft pick (out of the major four that we have) and get Bolton, no ifs or buts - if they don't do this, the trade period will have been a lost opportunity.

Disagree. No way we should be blowing 30k on a used caravan when a swag and a bus pass will do perfectly well.

 

[eastfreo75]

I don't think our best 22 is that good, that a good first round draft picks could not find a role. Especially if they were quick, and could play on the outside, or were a good small forward.


Walters, Banfield, Aish, Fyfe won't play much this year.
JOM should be pushed out of the 22 next year.

Worner or Wagner could be pushed out of the 22 for a good player.
So could Frederick.

I think trading out would be silly, unless we have small forward we want late. THere is a good a reason Geelong are taking 9 picks in this draft

Devil is in the detail.

It depends on the pick.