Player Watch #43 Jacob Bauer

[Grockadoc]

Every time Cumberland has a run of games the team's performance seems to magically deteriorate. A few of his efforts after failing to win the ball v the Lions were not even TAC Cup standard, so he is going through the trap door for mine.

I like the way our selectors often don't react to a player having a purple patch and rush him into the team, rather, they seem to look at whether a player can fulfil a role over the longer course to the benefit of the team. So I am not sure where things are headed with Bauer in the short term. It is great to see him playing well in the VFL team, but he probably still needs to nail down a role that is transferrable to the AFL team. I think Cumberland versus say Mansell has shown us pretty clearly that players who can "win the game off their own boot" at the end of a match don't necessarily improve the team's overall performance.

I do think Bauer and Banks deserve a game as a reward for effort and form, but doubt that will happen whilst finals are still a possibility.

 

[Grrr]

Every time Cumberland has a run of games the team's performance seems to magically deteriorate. A few of his efforts after failing to win the ball v the Lions were not even TAC Cup standard, so he is going through the trap door for mine.

I like the way our selectors often don't react to a player having a purple patch and rush him into the team, rather, they seem to look at whether a player can fulfil a role over the longer course to the benefit of the team. So I am not sure where things are headed with Bauer in the short term. It is great to see him playing well in the VFL team, but he probably still needs to nail down a role that is transferrable to the AFL team. I think Cumberland versus say Mansell has shown us pretty clearly that players who can "win the game off their own boot" at the end of a match don't necessarily improve the team's overall performance.

That is one hell of a bow to draw, and not necessarily saying you are doing anything other than compiling stats which you are good at, but to think that Cumberland's inclusion into the side has a direct bearing on our team form/win/loss ratio is in my way of thinking, a long bow. He is a minor player who plays deep generally. He has no more or less bearing on games than a good many of our young players, as an observer.

Like most of us on here, we formulate opinions on our observations, and I'm sure you do as well. Stats might assist and argument so I am not dismissing them outright, just trust my knowledge of the game, as most do. I could point to dozens of instances where players were poor, can't say that Cumberland was much worse than a good many others, but he also brought things to the game, so like most young players there is a bob each way.

He is being scrutinised to the nth degree on here as well, every little thing he does wrong is being highlighted and in my eyes over emphasised. The fact that he got up the ground and took 5 marks seems to matter not much to some. Jack, Ryan and Miller took 6 between them for the night. He also kicked the same amount of goals as all 3 combined. Just some stats to back an argument.

 

[beema limapep]

Every time Cumberland has a run of games the team's performance seems to magically deteriorate. A few of his efforts after failing to win the ball v the Lions were not even TAC Cup standard, so he is going through the trap door for mine.

I like the way our selectors often don't react to a player having a purple patch and rush him into the team, rather, they seem to look at whether a player can fulfil a role over the longer course to the benefit of the team. So I am not sure where things are headed with Bauer in the short term. It is great to see him playing well in the VFL team, but he probably still needs to nail down a role that is transferrable to the AFL team. I think Cumberland versus say Mansell has shown us pretty clearly that players who can "win the game off their own boot" at the end of a match don't necessarily improve the team's overall performance.

A bit simplistic and scapegoating of Cumberland.

Not saying he doesn't have issues but gee whiz.

 

[beema limapep]

Bauer and Banks/Brown simply have to play vs Sydney. You can't ask them to do any more in the twos.

Especially whilst we have injuries to Lynch, Short and friends and guys like Miller, Cumberland, MacIntosh and Pickett are stinking it up.

It's a no brainer.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Bauer and Banks/Brown simply have to play vs Sydney. You can't ask them to do any more in the twos.

Especially whilst we have injuries to Lynch, Short and friends and guys like Miller, Cumberland, MacIntosh and Pickett are stinking it up.

It's a no brainer.

I guess the only negative to using vfl form as the measurement to if a player should get promoted or not (not saying I disagree with you either) but for arguments sake we drop Pickett

Because he has a mature body and experience chances are he is going to have a blinder in the vfl and be best on ground (we saw this with Castagna and Aarts last year who when playing at vfl level they had over 30 possies multiple goals ect)

So by saying good vfl form needed to be rewarded those guys should come back into the best 22 after only one game and chances are the kids will underperform at afl level so it’s easy to make an argument that the kids could come straight out again if that makes sense

It’s cliche as **** but at the end of the day we need to put some trust into the MC to make the calls at the right time and for the right reason who see the players every day and have alot better insight into how they may perform

In saying all that I do hope we get to see some of these cubs get a run soon because what they are starting to show at vfl level is extremely exciting

 

[beema limapep]

I guess the only negative to using vfl form as the measurement to if a player should get promoted or not (not saying I disagree with you either) but for arguments sake we drop Pickett

Because he has a mature body and experience chances are he is going to have a blinder in the vfl and be best on ground (we saw this with Castagna and Aarts last year who when playing at vfl level they had over 30 possies multiple goals ect)

So by saying good vfl form needed to be rewarded those guys should come back into the best 22 after only one game and chances are the kids will underperform at afl level so it’s easy to make an argument that the kids could come straight out again if that makes sense

It’s cliche as * but at the end of the day we need to put some trust into the MC to make the calls at the right time and for the right reason who see the players every day and have alot better insight into how they may perform

In saying all that I do hope we get to see some of these cubs get a run soon because what they are starting to show at vfl level is extremely exciting

Well we wont know if we don't try. 80 point loss for the firsts and the team is screaming for an injection of youth.

Mini needs to stop playing it safe.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Well we wont know if we don't try. 80 point loss for the firsts and the team is screaming for an injection of youth.

Mini needs to stop playing it safe.

As mentioned in the coaching thread unfortunately Mini is in a shit situation if he plays kids chances are our on field performance will suffer more simply by having less experience in the side and will probably lead to more losses and more losses means that he might be seen as not the right person to be the sr coach

But by playing it safe he ultimately increases his chances of winning games and looks like a better coach and improves his prospects for the job

 

[Meteoric Rise]

That is one hell of a bow to draw, and not necessarily saying you are doing anything other than compiling stats which you are good at, but to think that Cumberland's inclusion into the side has a direct bearing on our team form/win/loss ratio is in my way of thinking, a long bow. He is a minor player who plays deep generally. He has no more or less bearing on games than a good many of our young players, as an observer.

Like most of us on here, we formulate opinions on our observations, and I'm sure you do as well. Stats might assist and argument so I am not dismissing them outright, just trust my knowledge of the game, as most do. I could point to dozens of instances where players were poor, can't say that Cumberland was much worse than a good many others, but he also brought things to the game, so like most young players there is a bob each way.

He is being scrutinised to the nth degree on here as well, every little thing he does wrong is being highlighted and in my eyes over emphasised. The fact that he got up the ground and took 5 marks seems to matter not much to some. Jack, Ryan and Miller took 6 between them for the night. He also kicked the same amount of goals as all 3 combined. Just some stats to back an argument.

This is a perfectly reasonable position to take. It is just I think the selectors' decisions around Cumberland support my position, as do the objective facts. Which is why my position is my position. I am not saying it is 100% certainly proven that Cumberland is the catalyst for the deterioration of team performance when he plays versus when he doesn't, but I think you understand that.

I think it is fairly obvious that if the defensive and contesting mechanisms of a team breaking down deep forward in modern football, this will hurt you on the scoreboard. It seems to me Cumberland has AFL level ability to win a given contest, and AFL level skills with the ball, but has bush footy level ability to stay in the game when he misses the ball. I cannot see why else you would get the coincidence of a) the team performing objectively worse with him than without him, and b) selectors seemingly more willing to omit him than other less eye catching forwards.

Having said that, Cumberland could have played like peak Dusty v Brisbane and it wouldn't have made the team competitive in the match.

I think Cumberland is living proof of my theory that that first method you learn of doing something is the hardest method to unlearn. It is going to be a battle for him to overcome this tendency to make one effort to win the ball then lose the plot if he doesn't win it. But to me that looks to be what he will need to do to be a long term AFL footballer. I hope he gets there because he can be great to watch.

 

[TigerImposter]

This is a perfectly reasonable position to take. It is just I think the selectors' decisions around Cumberland support my position, as do the objective facts. I am not saying it is 100% certainly proven that Cumberland is the catalyst for the deterioration of team performance when he plays versus when he doesn't, but I think you understand that.

I think it is fairly obvious that if the defensive and contesting mechanisms of a team breaking down deep forward in modern football, this will hurt you on the scoreboard. It seems to me Cumberland has AFL level ability to win a given contest, and AFL level skills with the ball, but has bush footy level ability to stay in the game when he misses the ball. I cannot see why else you would get the coincidence of a) the team performing objectively worse with him than without him, and b) selectors seemingly more willing to omit him than other less eye catching forwards.

Having said that, Cumberland could have played like peak Dusty v Brisbane and it wouldn't have made the team competitive in the match.

I think Cumberland is living proof of my theory that that first method you learn of doing something is the hardest method to unlearn. It is going to be a battle for him to overcome this tendency to make one effort to win the ball then lose the plot if he doesn't win it. But to me that looks to be what he will need to do to be a long term AFL footballer. I hope he gets there because he can be great to watch.

Just put it in simple English MR or even a gif.

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

Ryan needs replacing as he’s done nothing for weeks now.

Disagree mate

Ryan needs to be given as many games as possible this year and he is more Ruckman than Foward and should not be judged on his foward work this year
If we drop Ryan that means Soldo will come straight back into the side.

Jack needs a rest but thinking wont be this week and most likely player Bauer would replace is Cumberland

 

[Truetiger]

Well we wont know if we don't try. 80 point loss for the firsts and the team is screaming for an injection of youth.

Mini needs to stop playing it safe.

Not just Mini playing it safe. I am sure the match committee in general.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

A bit simplistic and scapegoating of Cumberland.

Not saying he doesn't have issues but gee whiz.

When we need to scape a goat I find it preferable to scape one whose omission won't harm the team's performance.

 

[TigerImposter]

Disagree mate

Ryan needs to be given as many games as possible this year and he is more Ruckman than Foward and should not be judged on his foward work this year
If we drop Ryan that means Soldo will come straight back into the side.

Jack needs a rest but thinking wont be this week and most likely player Bauer would replace is Cumberland

No I'm seeing bad body language and poor facial expressions in Ryan and his confidence is looking shot. This is the JC effect all over again rewarding mediocrity until they become totally void of confidence. Standards must always be maintained as rewarding mediocrity doesn't achieve anything, but poor results. Younger players have to learn this as it then sets higher standards and attitudes in wanting to get better. Ryan expecting he will just get a game bc he throws the jumper on achieves the same as what we saw with JC.

 

[Muddiemoose]

No I'm seeing bad body language and poor facial expressions in Ryan and his confidence is looking shot. This is the JC effect all over again rewarding mediocrity until they become totally void of confidence. Standards must always be maintained as rewarding mediocrity doesn't achieve anything, but poor results. Younger players have to learn this as it then sets higher standards and attitudes in wanting to get better. Ryan expecting he will just get a game bc he throws the jumper on achieves the same as what we saw with JC.

Also can be counter to what a lot of us are crying for re the direction of the club

In this very thread we are saying that Bauer should be brought into the side along with the likes of Banks and Brown, Cumbo thread saying Cumbo should play afl level because of the “upside”

But if Bauer comes in and stinks it up do we drop him straight away like some are suggesting we do with Ryan or do we back him in to learn and push through a form slump

We want to get afl experience and games into our next crop and that means taking our medicine in relation to dramatic form fluctuations

Ryan will be a great player for us and development wise he is going to learn alot more playing at afl level against more mature and experienced players

 

[Grrr]

This is a perfectly reasonable position to take. It is just I think the selectors' decisions around Cumberland support my position, as do the objective facts. Which is why my position is my position. I am not saying it is 100% certainly proven that Cumberland is the catalyst for the deterioration of team performance when he plays versus when he doesn't, but I think you understand that.

I think it is fairly obvious that if the defensive and contesting mechanisms of a team breaking down deep forward in modern football, this will hurt you on the scoreboard. It seems to me Cumberland has AFL level ability to win a given contest, and AFL level skills with the ball, but has bush footy level ability to stay in the game when he misses the ball. I cannot see why else you would get the coincidence of a) the team performing objectively worse with him than without him, and b) selectors seemingly more willing to omit him than other less eye catching forwards.

Having said that, Cumberland could have played like peak Dusty v Brisbane and it wouldn't have made the team competitive in the match.

I think Cumberland is living proof of my theory that that first method you learn of doing something is the hardest method to unlearn. It is going to be a battle for him to overcome this tendency to make one effort to win the ball then lose the plot if he doesn't win it. But to me that looks to be what he will need to do to be a long term AFL footballer. I hope he gets there because he can be great to watch.

Again I just don't see the attitude thing. I see a lack of continuity in his football, as I have said, he should have played a lot more VFL this season but for quite a few circumstances he would have. You can see what it has done to Bauer, Banks, Tresize and a few others. Even Miller to a lesser degree. Cumberland played rd.1, then rd's 8 & 9 and no VFL since.

And as far as stats go, would be interested to see how we went early with Prestia playing awful footy when we were losing. Taranto couldn't hit the side of a barn. Dusty and Bolton were way below. Grimes has been average all year, graham worse. Even Vlastuin was way below his best. Mansell was getting games but doing almost nothing, not even tackling. Pretty sure Cumberland out tackled a lot of players early on from memory. They were the reason we lost early, when Cumberland happened to be playing.

 

[TigerImposter]

Also can be counter to what a lot of us are crying for re the direction of the club

In this very thread we are saying that Bauer should be brought into the side along with the likes of Banks and Brown, Cumbo thread saying Cumbo should play afl level because of the “upside”

But if Bauer comes in and stinks it up do we drop him straight away like some are suggesting we do with Ryan or do we back him in to learn and push through a form slump

We want to get afl experience and games into our next crop and that means taking our medicine in relation to dramatic form fluctuations

Ryan will be a great player for us and development wise he is going to learn alot more playing at afl level against more mature and experienced players

We can all see Ryan's long term prospects and we need to be realistic he's played more games than most expected from him this season.
I think it's more his body has taken its toll playing against big monsters and he only has drop around 5-10% off his best and suddenly these mature bodied and seasoned monsters eat you up. I think just let him take on some younger guys in the VFL for a few weeks until he at least dominates some games.

 

[Grrr]

We can all see Ryan's long term prospects and we need to be realistic he's played more games than most expected from him this season.
I think it's more his body has taken its toll playing against big monsters and he only has drop around 5-10% off his best and suddenly these mature bodied and seasoned monsters eat you up. I think just let him take on some younger guys in the VFL for a few weeks until he at least dominates some games.

Which is exactly what the VFL is for, to run players into form. It's seems almost a penalty to be playing VFL these days.

 

[Tigeron]

I do think Bauer and Banks deserve a game as a reward for effort and form, but doubt that will happen whilst finals are still a possibility.

Fortune favours the brave take a risk mimi

 

[RockJobster0312]

I want to start by saying this, because I don’t want my post to be seen as overly negative, I hope he gets a call up against the Swans.

He’s shown AFL level traits at various stages, and it’s always good to see the (hopefully) next generation of Tiger cubs get their chance.

That said (and to temper expectations), if he was to get a senior gig it would have to be in the forward line. The issue with that as despite how good he was on Friday in the 4th quarter and against the Giants also in the 4th quarter, over the last 16 quarters of football he has played, only three have been as a forward by my maths.

And yes he was BOG on Friday, but he has been average or below average for the majority of the last few games.

Is that combination enough to see him get a gig against Sydney in the forward line? I have my doubts.

But again, I’d love to see him get the nod against the Swans as I do think he should get a chance at some stage to show his wares.

 

[Grrr]

I want to start by saying this, because I don’t want my post to be seen as overly negative, I hope he gets a call up against the Swans.

He’s shown AFL level traits at various stages, and it’s always good to see the (hopefully) next generation of Tiger cubs get their chance.

That said (and to temper expectations), if he was to get a senior gig it would have to be in the forward line. The issue with that as despite how good he was on Friday in the 4th quarter and against the Giants also in the 4th quarter, over the last 16 quarters of football he has played, only three have been as a forward by my maths.

And yes he was BOG on Friday, but he has been average or below average for the majority of the last few games.

Is that combination enough to see him get a gig against Sydney in the forward line? I have my doubts.

But again, I’d love to see him get the nod against the Swans as I do think he should get a chance at some stage to show his wares.

or we can stay with what we know.

Reward form, that is an old adage but for us right now, an apt one.

 

[RockJobster0312]

or we can stay with what we know.

Reward form, that is an old adage but for us right now, an apt one.

All for rewarding form. And again, I hope he does get the nod next week.

But does one very good game in the last 3-4 represent form?

 

[domin8]

Worth giving him a crack. Has shown he has great temperament. Marks the ball well. Could do worse things than giving him a shot. Rejuvenate the fwd line

 

[prodigy]

As mentioned in the coaching thread unfortunately Mini is in a s**t situation if he plays kids chances are our on field performance will suffer more simply by having less experience in the side and will probably lead to more losses and more losses means that he might be seen as not the right person to be the sr coach

But by playing it safe he ultimately increases his chances of winning games and looks like a better coach and improves his prospects for the job

Not sure I agree with this line of thinking.
RFC and more specifically Benny Gale as an employer would be doing the club a disservice if they had a narrow minded thought process where a major focus would be wins and losses for the next coach, whether it be Mini or anyone else.
I'm sure winning games helps, but any coach going for the job would need to have a future plan in place. Mini is in a unique situation where he can demonstrate the steps he is taking now that would contribute to his future planning.
If he continues to ignore the players that perform at the lower level, that will do nothing but look bad for him.
This next section isn't directly addressing you, but more a general discussion.

Playing someone like Bauer in our forward line at AFL level won't upset the apple cart (our structure) at all. If he were to replace Ryan or Jack I'm confident that it wouldn't be any worse than what we are currently seeing. I think it would be better.
I was saying this really early in the year but Bauer isn't afraid to crash packs and impose himself on the contest. That's exactly what we need right now. Long down the line (LDL) contests would be markedly improved as I think with his ability to read the flight of the ball and his physicality at the contest he can bring the ball to ground better than Riewoldt/Ryan/Cumbo can.

I just don't see a downside, I might be biased as I've been singing this same tune all year.

 

[lizard man]

Is this guy a genuine key position player or more a third tall jack gunston

19

Jack Gunston

Age

33

Ht

193cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.5

4star

K

10.5

4star

HB

5.0

4star

M

5.7

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.9

5star

D

10.6

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

2.6

2star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.7

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

11.2

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

4.2

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

3star

lead up tall? Haven’t seen any of the vfl this year

 

[prodigy]

All for rewarding form. And again, I hope he does get the nod next week.

But does one very good game in the last 3-4 represent form?

So, we continue to persist with Ryan who has been giving us nothing for weeks now? It works both ways.
There's been so many posters here that are afraid or just reluctant to the idea of giving Bauer/Bradtke a crack at AFL level but what's the risk? It can't be worse than the output of our forward line currently.