Play Nice 46th President of the United States: Joe Biden 2: Incidit in scyllam cupiens vitare charybdim

[Geelong_Bisons_#36]

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Sharp as a tack.
Imagine what he'll be like in 4 years.

 

[Crankyhawk]

I agree she’d likely not get much (she’s not particularly well known), but then Bernie wasn’t seen as anything of note when he first announced in 2015.

I don’t like the whole “be an amateur prognosticator” thing in terms of electability. I think you can only find who speaks to your concerns and hope they speak to others (and spread the word on their behalf). I remember during the 2020 primary Nate Silver or someone of his ilk commented that Amy Klobuchar was the most electable candidate and that her polling so badly showed that wasn’t a priority to Democratic primary voters. And I thought the dissonance in that was pretty astonishing, but is the issue with people treating politics as a science.

(I also remember living in the UK during the Corbyn elections and in 2019 a campaign to “vote tactical”, advocating for Lib Dem votes. And so there were seats where they went Tory and where Labour massively outpolled the Lib Dems, who people were told were the tactical anti-Conservative vote. Basically, I think a lot of the “think tactical, not ideological” view of politics is wrongheaded.)

Defending the tactical approach in Australia is that no funding gets to your area if not marginal. And tipping out politicians regularly prevents them getting pensions.

 

[spinynorman]

Because voting on a single issue is almost always a mistake.

No realistic candidate is going to have a substantially different policy on Gaza, and no realistic candidate is going to have a materially different affect on the progress of the war.

So, if I have an interest in something else, such as, resisting the spread of fascist like policy in the US, I shouldn't support the candidate most likely to affect that outcome, because of his policies on Gaza.

If there was a candidate with a chance of winning, who could end the war, and roll back Trumpism, sure, has my support.


Because as I see it, the current options on the table are.

Stop Trump, but not stop the war and,
Not stop Trump, not stop the war.

Option 1 for me.

On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app

As we aren't Americans, its foreign policy is the one that's going to make the biggest difference for us. But irrespective, while things are beyond any single issue, I think the slaughter of 26,000 and the displacement of another 2 million is beyond a "single issue" (as Lyndon Johnson found, who had a significantly better domestic record than Biden but was losing the Democratic base because of the carnage in Vietnam).

The threat to withhold support is the only thing people have to have Biden back down in throwing his support behind Israel. The acceptance of the Democratic base of "Well it's not good but the Republicans would be worse!" have seen the Democrats chase right for decades and led to this current sorry state (could also look at the ALP, but the threat to not vote or to vote for a third party is a bit harder in mandatory, preferential voting).

 

[Blue1980]

As we aren't Americans, its foreign policy is the one that's going to make the biggest difference for us. But irrespective, while things are beyond any single issue, I think the slaughter of 26,000 and the displacement of another 2 million is beyond a "single issue" (as Lyndon Johnson found, who had a significantly better domestic record than Biden but was losing the Democratic base because of the carnage in Vietnam).

The threat to withhold support is the only thing people have to have Biden back down in throwing his support behind Israel. The acceptance of the Democratic base of "Well it's not good but the Republicans would be worse!" have seen the Democrats chase right for decades and led to this current sorry state (could also look at the ALP, but the threat to not vote or to vote for a third party is a bit harder in mandatory, preferential voting).

A few things here and I agree with most of what you have said.

In America you won’t find people switching to trump over Biden because of Israel, that would be absurd. Trump would be telling them to bomb the f out of Palestine.

On the flip side as trump has no real ideology, and doesn’t like Bibi he could randomly threaten to withhold support to Israel.

So by compete accident Trump could end up on the right side there. Though he could also make things much much worse, by ordering attacks on Iran etc.

Regardless of the above, no one is chasing to vote trump instead of Biden on Israel or foreign policy in general, they just won’t vote.

Now Trump with nazi enthusiast Stephen Miller & co in his ear, could call for another Muslim ban or some other draconian policy which would make Biden seem moderate in comparison.

I understand withholding support is all they can really do re condemning Biden being an ultra Zionist who thinks Israel can do no wrong and just need to bomb Gaza more nicely.

The problem with this is it isn’t just some garden variety neo con republicans in the opposition, they are a literal fascist party now who are determined to implement minority rule via creeping authoritarianism/dictatorship.

We have already seen how this is poisoning the well overseas outside of America. Other conservative parties can and are being co opted by the far right, and think if it can be done in the most powerful country (western power) in the world it can be replicated elsewhere in the western world too.

That concerns me greatly that it could lead to a collapse of democracy in the western world.

On the flip side, it might be the kick up the ass the legitimate left need to rise up against the corporate dems in the US and virtue signalling fake left parties elsewhere in the west, that they need legit policies which help people, rather than promoting a black/gay/trans/female/other minority to just enact the same policies which benefit the rich that they have done previously and then congratulate themselves on how “progressive” they are.

 

[BigTacoBandit]

My non politician option, and who I actually think is a good matchup for Trump, as I've said before, is Jon Stewart. Well known, sharp, funny, good in debate mode. Yeah, he's to the left of Biden, but Trump's true fans think Biden is socialist and aren't switching anyway. Independents put off by Trump, but equally perceptions about Biden's age and inaction, might be swayed. He'd pull more left-wing votes and he has admiration from veteran and first responder groups, given his advocacy for them. Word of mouth, endorsements etc can help there. He even has some begrudging respect from conservatives over that, which may not get their vote, but could influence independents if they hear that. Someone like Whitmer as a running mate, or flip it and have Stewart as VP with the above as his priorities e.g. veterans administration.

Plus anything to piss off Tucker Carlson.

Looks like The Daily Show reads BigFooty too

 

[Blue1980]

Because voting on a single issue is almost always a mistake.

No realistic candidate is going to have a substantially different policy on Gaza, and no realistic candidate is going to have a materially different affect on the progress of the war.

So, if I have an interest in something else, such as, resisting the spread of fascist like policy in the US, I shouldn't support the candidate most likely to affect that outcome, because of his policies on Gaza.

If there was a candidate with a chance of winning, who could end the war, and roll back Trumpism, sure, has my support.


Because as I see it, the current options on the table are.

Stop Trump, but not stop the war and,
Not stop Trump, not stop the war.

Option 1 for me.

On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app

Pretty much where I am at

 

[Geelong_Bisons_#36]

Michelle Obama to be the dem nomination for president?
Pretty much the only chance Trump doesn't win

 

[Crankyhawk]

As we aren't Americans, its foreign policy is the one that's going to make the biggest difference for us. But irrespective, while things are beyond any single issue, I think the slaughter of 26,000 and the displacement of another 2 million is beyond a "single issue" (as Lyndon Johnson found, who had a significantly better domestic record than Biden but was losing the Democratic base because of the carnage in Vietnam).

The threat to withhold support is the only thing people have to have Biden back down in throwing his support behind Israel. The acceptance of the Democratic base of "Well it's not good but the Republicans would be worse!" have seen the Democrats chase right for decades and led to this current sorry state (could also look at the ALP, but the threat to not vote or to vote for a third party is a bit harder in mandatory, preferential voting).

I can’t see the republicans making choices any differently that would reduce effective support for Israel. Maybe even increase by stopping support for Ukraine and giving that to Israel.

 

[bourbons]

Michelle Obama to be the dem nomination for president?
Pretty much the only chance Trump doesn't win

There's plenty of other options, 'generic democrat' still leads Trump in polling. Wouldn't want Mrs O in any case, political dynasties can GAGF.

Joe seems too stubborn to accept reality and move over for anyone though, think we're past the point of no return now.

 

[Geelong_Bisons_#36]

There's plenty of other options, 'generic democrat' still leads Trump in polling. Wouldn't want Mrs O in any case, political dynasties can GAGF.

Joe seems too stubborn to accept reality and move over for anyone though, think we're past the point of no return now.

I don't think reality and Joe can be used in the same sentence anymore.
Senility has well and truly set in.

 

[Crankyhawk]

I don't think reality and Joe can be used in the same sentence anymore.
Senility has well and truly set in.

Think it is just standard stubbornness bd hubris not senility

 

[Crow54]

As we aren't Americans, its foreign policy is the one that's going to make the biggest difference for us. But irrespective, while things are beyond any single issue, I think the slaughter of 26,000 and the displacement of another 2 million is beyond a "single issue" (as Lyndon Johnson found, who had a significantly better domestic record than Biden but was losing the Democratic base because of the carnage in Vietnam).

The threat to withhold support is the only thing people have to have Biden back down in throwing his support behind Israel. The acceptance of the Democratic base of "Well it's not good but the Republicans would be worse!" have seen the Democrats chase right for decades and led to this current sorry state (could also look at the ALP, but the threat to not vote or to vote for a third party is a bit harder in mandatory, preferential voting).

Perhaps that was because American boys were dying in Vietnam? No US troops in Gaza at the moment, are there?

 

[Spirit Level]

Can Newsom just hurry up and run already

 

[happy_eagle]

No serious candidate is going to challenge the sitting president whilst he is still openly running.

1. They wouldn't win the primary
2. It would also hand the general election to Trump

The only option here is for Biden (or people in his circle) to convince him not to run.

 

[jatz14]

Think it is just standard stubbornness bd hubris not senility

Do you mean Biden, or Geelong_Bisons

 

[Crow54]

Dark Brandon is out and about today.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Dark Brandon is out and about today.

Never forget that Trump was a 5 times draft dodger and none of his family have served in the US military

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Dark Brandon is out and about today.

Not too senile there, hey Geelong_Bisons_#36?

It's hilarious how easy some of you fall for the Trumpie deflection about mental capacity. Says a lot about mental capacity, tbh.

 

[Geelong_Bisons_#36]

Not too senile there, hey Geelong_Bisons_#36?

It's hilarious how easy some of you fall for the Trumpie deflection about mental capacity. Says a lot about mental capacity, tbh.

Amazing. He completed 3 sentences.

 

[EagleMan87]

Amazing. He completed 3 sentences.

More than his opponent can manage.

 

[jatz14]

More than his opponent can manage.

Trump can complete 3 sentences.

It's just that those sentences are nonsensical or divorced from reality, or batshit crazy, or all 3.

On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Amazing. He completed 3 sentences.

Quality counting.

 

[Satan]

Never forget that Trump was a 5 times draft dodger and none of his family have served in the US military

Trump's grandfather 'kicked out of Germany'

Donald Trump's grandfather was kicked out of his native Germany for failing to do his mandatory military service there, a historian has claimed.

amp.cnn.com

 

[ams4crows]

Just need someone under 60 years old with more than 3 brain cells left to run, and they'll win.

With what's happening at the border in Texas currently that civil war maybe a bit closer than any one ever thought. Potentially a stunt to help Trump get over the line but even still incredibly concerning. The fact other states are sending "troops" to help Texas against the national guard must have at least some alarm bells ringing.

 

[Bloods86]

Just need someone under 60 years old with more than 3 brain cells left to run, and they'll win.

With what's happening at the border in Texas currently that civil war maybe a bit closer than any one ever thought. Potentially a stunt to help Trump get over the line but even still incredibly concerning. The fact other states are sending "troops" to help Texas against the national guard must have at least some alarm bells ringing.

The Texas National Guard is what Texas are using in standoffs with federal border protection. They can be federalised (activated under federal control) at short notice, just like other states National Guard units. So other states could end up just sending more units for Biden to federalise.

It'd only be a refusal by some members or National Guard officers to obey federalisation (if it happened) that would cause a problem. And then the full US Military and National Guard components doing their duty, could round them up for court martial.

Texas itself has ultimate control of the Texas State Guard, which has about 1700 members.