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BringBackTorps said:
Any particular reason you have allocated only an average of 15 players per AF Club team in Greater West Syd?
I would have thought c. 21 players per team.

Also, you have estimated Club Auskick nos. for 4-8 y.o.'s in Greater West Syd. at only c.40% of total Club no.?
Auskick is booming,many females in Auskick now - I would have thought c.70%

Contact RL regd. nos. have been on a long term decline (ditto RU).
To lose 15% in 1 year, however, is a HUGE hit (pun intended) for RL. The NRL would be very worried.
Anyone have any theories why 2017 has been so bad for Greater West Syd. RL?
(Macarthur Campbelltown etc. regions also down).

It will be interesting to see if the pro RL Sydney media report this participation decline as a "one-off" news event, as it usually does? Or will this long term trend become a northern state media narrative, & be reported/commented on in a regular," thematic" sense?
Click to expand...

Younger age groups don't play 18 a side football, whilst under 13- 17 may have up to 28 registered players per team, lower age levels can have 10 or so playing 9 a side football - 3 backs, 3 mids and 3 forwards on a small ground.

Just a guess at rounding it out at 15 per side, from ME Auskick which is the base of the pyramid usually had the strongest numbers and is about 40- 50% of total club numbers.

I think the NRL has been worried for quite some time, I think it has reached a point in WS now where it is becoming obvious.

I am not even sure what 100 million would do, unless the actual tackling stopped at junior level or weight divisions came in.
 
Garlic muncher said:
Younger age groups don't play 18 a side football, whilst under 13- 17 may have up to 28 registered players per team, lower age levels can have 10 or so playing 9 a side football - 3 backs, 3 mids and 3 forwards on a small ground.

Just a guess at rounding it out at 15 per side, from ME Auskick which is the base of the pyramid usually had the strongest numbers and is about 40- 50% of total club numbers.

I think the NRL has been worried for quite some time, I think it has reached a point in WS now where it is becoming obvious.

I am not even sure what 100 million would do, unless the actual tackling stopped at junior level or weight divisions came in.
Click to expand...
As some junior sides have up to 28 team members, this offsets those U8- U10 teams playing in smaller-side games: so average is possibly in between.

Both RL & RU are considering re-introducing weight divisions (Was trialled in Penrith RL District -& both RL & RU had weight Divisions up to the 70's).

I assume if a child was playing RL or RU, but became disillusioned with these sports, they (& their parents) would more likely favour switching to another body contact sport ie AF, not soccer. Since, however, soccer is played in virtually every school in Syd (but not AF), this "familiarity"with soccer, its omnipresent/easily accessible club structure, & the simplicity/safety of soccer would also give it much appeal for the RL/RU "discontents".

Long term, though, I believe the regd. contact participation no. decline of RL &RU in Syd. & the northern states will benefit AF -the obvious alternative for the kid (& family) who wants a "grunt/courage/personal affirmation of a big challenge/ diverse skillset/ strong camaraderie" sport.
Already in SE Qld., AF regd. nos are very close to RL contact regd. nos. -this would have been an absurd, preposterous prediction 30 years ago. Admittedly, Syd. has a very big immigrant pop., that favours soccer: but there is a reasonable chance, for AF, that Syd. will follow SE Qld. in the next 10-20 years.
 
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Having been around junior soccer for quite some time, while it does have skilled and athletic players, a fair number have trouble running in a straight line (or even just running). I think people underestimate the significance of soccers junior campaign which went something like `simple, safe, accessible` The problem with that campaign from a code wars perspective is, it sets the sport up to be played by younger kids who are not into, do not like, or are not good at, sport, but who are made to by parents. They play until they do not have to, then they stop. The FFA keeps waiting for all these participation numbers to turn into spectators and supporters, but they do not because they were never particularly into the sport to start with.

I have sometimes wondered while looking at a junior soccer game, if the local footy club was told they could come over and grab any kids they wanted, to try to improve the standard of the local junior footy, how many would they take, and for how many would it be, nah, you can keep him.

The NRL does not particularly care how many of these kids soccer steals.

I think the fear is that the growth of AFL as a choice will attract kids that are competitive, and athletic and robust in larger proportion than soccer will, ie AFL is more likely to steal the kids the NRL actually care about than soccer is.
 

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Just on weight divisions for the rugbys, is it age based? Ie will there be teams of 80 kg 10 year olds? Or is it not aged based ie. will an 80 kg ten year old play against an 80 kg 14 year old?
 
jatz14 said:
Having been around junior soccer for quite some time, while it does have skilled and athletic players, a fair number have trouble running in a straight line (or even just running). I think people underestimate the significance of soccers junior campaign which went something like `simple, safe, accessible` The problem with that campaign from a code wars perspective is, it sets the sport up to be played by younger kids who are not into, do not like, or are not good at, sport, but who are made to by parents. They play until they do not have to, then they stop. The FFA keeps waiting for all these participation numbers to turn into spectators and supporters, but they do not because they were never particularly into the sport to start with.

I have sometimes wondered while looking at a junior soccer game, if the local footy club was told they could come over and grab any kids they wanted, to try to improve the standard of the local junior footy, how many would they take, and for how many would it be, nah, you can keep him.

The NRL does not particularly care how many of these kids soccer steals.

I think the fear is that the growth of AFL as a choice will attract kids that are competitive, and athletic and robust in larger proportion than soccer will, ie AFL is more likely to steal the kids the NRL actually care about than soccer is.
Click to expand...

I would say that would be the case for soccer in much of the country, however Sydney and in particular WS may be a different kettle of fish.

In WS i doubt the standard of junior footy would be high, therefore easily improved and WS is the engine room of Australian soccer and it stands to reason that some kids moving over would improve the standard.
 
The_Wookie said:
According to ASTRA rankings, Foxfooty outrates Foxleague 5 weeks to 2 so far this year - despite 2-3 live matches a week actually being show on Fox3.

- Week 18 - Foxfooty #1, Foxleague #2
- Week 17 - Foxfooty #1, Foxleague #2
- Week 16 - Foxfooty #1, Foxleague #2
- Week 15 - Foxfooty #1, Foxleague #2
- Week 14 - Foxleague #1, Foxfooty #2
- Week 13 - Foxfooty #1, Foxleague #2
- Week 12 - Foxleague #1, Foxfooty #2
Click to expand...

Interesting, I wonder if generally the analysis shows (AFL360, the Couch etc) for AFL rate higher than those for the NRL (NRL360, Sterlo etc), and if this is where the difference comes from?
 
My understanding of how weight Divisions used to work in Aust. until c.1970 (& now works very successfully in NZ for many decades) is a combination of both ie U14's over 50 kgs, & U14's under 50 kgs.
Thus, there will be no teams of "80 kg 10 year olds".

The problem of the huge kids will still exist (eg U14 who is 75 kg+), & probably can't be fairly overcome. If a 75 kg+ U14 kid was expected to play U17's, the fear is that they will simply quit RL/RU - too big a psychological difference playing with much older boys; also the huge kid generally hasn't got the speed/ strength/ "smarts" to compete with 75kg "true" U17 boys (The big boys have much "baby fat").
A further problem with weight Divisions is that many kids like to play sport (any sport) with their mates -weight Division exclusions might cause many to quit RL/RU.

I suspect there may also be some racial sensitivities placing huge kids in a much older, mainly white age group.

There are valid reasons why RL/RU in Aust. are very wary of re-introducing weight Divisions.

RL & RU, at the elite junior squad levels, & NRL/Super Rugby levels, are increasingly being dominated by players from a PI background (c.40%, & growing).
It has also been reported that c.20% (excluding NRL NZ Warriors) of NRL players are NZ citizens (white or PI). For the NRL & ARU, there are important demographic changes.
I believe this presents strategic opportunities to promote GR AF in the northern states.
 
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kaypee said:
Just on weight divisions for the rugbys, is it age based? Ie will there be teams of 80 kg 10 year olds? Or is it not aged based ie. will an 80 kg ten year old play against an 80 kg 14 year old?
Click to expand...

The way it works in NZ, and what is being looked at here is that you would have 2 competitions in each age grade - a weight restricted one, and an open one.

So, if a small kid (and his parents) are happy for him to play in the open weight division in his age group, that's fine. The good, tough small kids will take that option, especially in the older age groups.

The issue of course is that means each club would need at least 2 teams in each age group, which is unlikely. More likely is you have most clubs fielding an open weight team (I know clubs will have this as their preferred team which will get the best coaches and best resources) , with the leftovers being put in multi-club "Barbarian" teams. Danger with that is you lose the "play with your mates" factor.

Currently, in RU at least, there is a mechanism that if a player is in the lowest 20 (I think) percentile in weight for their age, they can automatically play down a grade. No child can be pushed up to a grade above their age without parental consent.
 
The_Wookie said:

Click to expand...

Actually, the Foxtel numbers were very good for the ALeague to be fair. That's at the top end of what the AFL / NRL get for home and away games (albeit with live FTA similcasts and the few that aren't overlapping for the AFL)

Probably goes to show why Fox are pushing (or dictating) where the expansion teams should go
 
jatz14 said:
Having been around junior soccer for quite some time, while it does have skilled and athletic players, a fair number have trouble running in a straight line (or even just running). I think people underestimate the significance of soccers junior campaign which went something like `simple, safe, accessible` The problem with that campaign from a code wars perspective is, it sets the sport up to be played by younger kids who are not into, do not like, or are not good at, sport, but who are made to by parents. They play until they do not have to, then they stop. The FFA keeps waiting for all these participation numbers to turn into spectators and supporters, but they do not because they were never particularly into the sport to start with.

I have sometimes wondered while looking at a junior soccer game, if the local footy club was told they could come over and grab any kids they wanted, to try to improve the standard of the local junior footy, how many would they take, and for how many would it be, nah, you can keep him.

The NRL does not particularly care how many of these kids soccer steals.

I think the fear is that the growth of AFL as a choice will attract kids that are competitive, and athletic and robust in larger proportion than soccer will, ie AFL is more likely to steal the kids the NRL actually care about than soccer is.
Click to expand...
There is an old, but very true saying, "Scared parents create scared children".

Your post is prescient. It helps explain why the NRL believes AF is its main, long term threat in WS -even though soccer probably has c.150,000+ regd. M & F players in GWS; AF c.8,000 in Club, Auskick, & school -but doubled in the last few years.

The 15% decline (part of a long term trend) in jnr. RL regd. contact nos. in 1 year in 2017, in its RL GWS heartland, places the NRL in a perilous position.
We shall discover soon if the NRL Commission is really "the keeper of the RL code"; & is able to spend the $100,000,000 it wants on GR to protect its GR heartland -or "rolls over"to the demands for "excessive "grants to the NRL players & Clubs.
The NRL's challenges are amplified by a range of off-field legal/cultural/perception issues.
And on-field issues of declining NRL crowds; that many of its fans, apparently, don't like the "monotony"of the "5 tackle, then kick" dominant game style; & loss of the little blokes, with great flair.

AF only competes, primarily, with RL & RU for athletic, body-contact, courageous players. These players all know they will often be hurt.
Soccer, which has soccer mums & kids fearful of body contact burdens, competes for players with basketball, tennis, touch rugby, netball (girls), computer games etc.
Like you, when I have looked at jnrs. playing soccer (or known some personally, & their general lack of athleticism, & lack of proclivities for "risk taking/grunt/courage"), I don't believe many would be suited to the rigours of AF.

Aust. is currently rated at c.52 in World Cup rankings (& declining), has a pop. of c.24,000,000, & claims c. 1,100,000 regd. male players (but much double counting, since soccer is played in virtually every school in Aust. -and many also play week end club soccer/ indoor futsal). Our jnr. soccer teams international performance in recent years has been very poor, & is also deteriorating.

Wales pop.c.3,000,000, Iceland pop. c.350,000 & Uruguay pop.c. 3,500,000 are rated 8, 21 & 15 respectively in World Cup ratings. In Wales, RU is probably the most popular sport!
There is a reason for Aust.'s deploreable ranking.

Furthermore, re the kindred sport of RU, apart from ex Wallabies Papworth, Poidevin, Fitzsimmons, Dwyer (who has called on all ARU execs. to resign) etc, others are also highlighting the current crisis in contact RU's regd. nos., decline in playing standards, Super Rugby crowds/ratings/team abolition, & the ARU's dire financial situation. RU is in FAR more difficulty than RL (which has a luxury $1.8 billion TV rights war chest, & very high TV ratings).

Mark Ella, Aust. RU legend & RU WC winning Wallaby, has told the Daily Telegraph on 5.5 that "to save RU from the abyss" in Australia, there must be an urgent joint meeting of the ARU, state bodies, Super teams, & GR organisations. In good faith negotiations, common cause must be found & implemented to protect RU from its unprecedented calamitous situation.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sp...s/news-story/859a0201bd8581e044e84bb7c466b369

(To overcome DT Paywall, go into Incognito; then click on Google; then input " rugby greats call for crisis summit as code lurches into the abyss")
 
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TigerCraig said:
The way it works in NZ, and what is being looked at here is that you would have 2 competitions in each age grade - a weight restricted one, and an open one.

So, if a small kid (and his parents) are happy for him to play in the open weight division in his age group, that's fine. The good, tough small kids will take that option, especially in the older age groups.

The issue of course is that means each club would need at least 2 teams in each age group, which is unlikely. More likely is you have most clubs fielding an open weight team (I know clubs will have this as their preferred team which will get the best coaches and best resources) , with the leftovers being put in multi-club "Barbarian" teams. Danger with that is you lose the "play with your mates" factor.

Currently, in RU at least, there is a mechanism that if a player is in the lowest 20 (I think) percentile in weight for their age, they can automatically play down a grade. No child can be pushed up to a grade above their age without parental consent.
Click to expand...


That may work OK in a couple of areas where plenty of kids are playing, but southern states, country and some city areas where many clubs scratch around for teams weight divisions are not going to work.

No clear answer and something that has become more and more apparent in the last 20 years or so due to the huge weight disparity between some kids.

The game is based primarily on tackling.
 
TBH I disagree that soccer doesnt have any athletes.

I also disagree that there are two categories of sports
RL / RU /AFL

Soccer / Esports / Ping pong / basketball.

Kids play a range of different sports. Each sport has isnt own level of physicality.
 
BringBackTorps said:
There is an old, but very true saying, "Scared parents create scared children".

Your post is prescient. It helps explain why the NRL believes AF is its main, long term threat in WS -even though soccer probably has c.150,000 players in GWS; AF c.8,000 in Club, Auskick, & school -but doubled in the last few years.

The 15% decline (part of a long term trend) in jnr. RL regd. contact nos. in 2017 in its RL GWS heartland places the NRL in a perilous position.
We shall discover soon if the NRL Commission is really "the keeper of the RL code"; & is able to spend the $100,000,000 it wants on GR to protect its GR heartland -or "rolls over"to the demands for "excessive "grants to the NRL players & Clubs.
The NRL's challenges are amplified by a range of off-field legal/cultural/perception issues; & on-field issues of declining NRL crowds, & that many of its fans, apparently, don't like the "monotony"of the "5 tackle, then kick"game style that has become dominant.

AF only competes, primarily, with RL & RU for athletic, body-contact, courageous players. These players all know they will often be hurt.
Soccer, which has soccer mums & kids fearful of body contact burdens, competes for players with basketball, tennis, touch rugby, netball (girls), computer games etc.
Like you, when I have looked at jnrs. playing soccer (or known some personally, & their general lack of athleticism, & lack of proclivities for "risk taking/grunt/courage"), I don't believe many would be suited to the rigours of AF.

Aust. is currently rated at c.52 in World Cup rankings (& declining), has a pop. of c.24,000,000, & claims c. 1,100,000 regd. male players (but much double counting, since soccer is played in virtually every school in Aust. -and many also play week end club soccer/ indoor futsal). Our jnr. soccer teams international performance in recent years has been very poor, & is also deteriorating.

Wales pop.c.3,000,000, Iceland pop. c.350,000 & Uruguay pop.c. 3,500,000 are rated 8, 21 & 15 respectively in World Cup ratings. In Wales, RU is probably the most popular sport!
There is a reason for Aust.'s deploreable ranking.

Furthermore, re the kindred sport of RU, apart from ex Wallabies Papworth, Poidevin, Fitzsimmons, Dwyer (who has called on all ARU execs. to resign) etc, others are also highlighting the current crisis in contact RU's regd. nos., decline in playing standards, Super Rugby crowds/ratings/team abolition, & the ARU's dire financial situation. RU is in FAR more difficulty than RL (which has a luxury $1.8 billion TV rights war chest, & very high TV ratings).

Mark Ella, Aust. RU legend & RU WC winning Wallaby, has told the Daily Telegraph on 5.5 that "to save RU from the abyss" in Australia, there must be an urgent joint meeting of the ARU, state bodies, Super teams, & GR organisations. In good faith negotiations, common cause must be found & implemented to protect RU from its unprecedented calamitous situation.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sp...s/news-story/859a0201bd8581e044e84bb7c466b369

(To overcome DT Paywall, go into Incognito; then click on Google; then input " rugby greats call for crisis summit as code lurches into the abyss")
Click to expand...


Go back 20 years rugby and RL were different, the players were not as big and smaller players were an accepted part of the game.

The games have changed and so have the demographics.

RU in OZ has not kept pace, i think the system which was amatuer for 100 odd years still runs with that mentality in NSW and QLD and the old tie brigade runs it, it has always been seen as a private school sport here unlike NZ, we have always been miles behind them in most facets of the game.
 
papabear said:
TBH I disagree that soccer doesnt have any athletes.

I also disagree that there are two categories of sports
RL / RU /AFL

Soccer / Esports / Ping pong / basketball.

Kids play a range of different sports. Each sport has isnt own level of physicality.
Click to expand...
It was never a either/or observation, just a difference in averages observation. Yes, soccer has talented, athletic, proactive junior players, just they make up a smaller proportion of total players than the other football codes, for the simple reason that's it's seen as a better choice of sport for the untalented, unathletic, passive.

Sent from my XT1068 using Tapatalk
 
BringBackTorps said:
There is an old, but very true saying, "Scared parents create scared children".

Your post is prescient. It helps explain why the NRL believes AF is its main, long term threat in WS -even though soccer probably has c.150,000+ regd. M & F players in GWS; AF c.8,000 in Club, Auskick, & school -but doubled in the last few years.

The 15% decline (part of a long term trend) in jnr. RL regd. contact nos. in 1 year in 2017, in its RL GWS heartland, places the NRL in a perilous position.
We shall discover soon if the NRL Commission is really "the keeper of the RL code"; & is able to spend the $100,000,000 it wants on GR to protect its GR heartland -or "rolls over"to the demands for "excessive "grants to the NRL players & Clubs.
The NRL's challenges are amplified by a range of off-field legal/cultural/perception issues.
And on-field issues of declining NRL crowds; that many of its fans, apparently, don't like the "monotony"of the "5 tackle, then kick" dominant game style; & loss of the little blokes, with great flair.

AF only competes, primarily, with RL & RU for athletic, body-contact, courageous players. These players all know they will often be hurt.
Soccer, which has soccer mums & kids fearful of body contact burdens, competes for players with basketball, tennis, touch rugby, netball (girls), computer games etc.
Like you, when I have looked at jnrs. playing soccer (or known some personally, & their general lack of athleticism, & lack of proclivities for "risk taking/grunt/courage"), I don't believe many would be suited to the rigours of AF.

Aust. is currently rated at c.52 in World Cup rankings (& declining), has a pop. of c.24,000,000, & claims c. 1,100,000 regd. male players (but much double counting, since soccer is played in virtually every school in Aust. -and many also play week end club soccer/ indoor futsal). Our jnr. soccer teams international performance in recent years has been very poor, & is also deteriorating.

Wales pop.c.3,000,000, Iceland pop. c.350,000 & Uruguay pop.c. 3,500,000 are rated 8, 21 & 15 respectively in World Cup ratings. In Wales, RU is probably the most popular sport!
There is a reason for Aust.'s deploreable ranking.

Furthermore, re the kindred sport of RU, apart from ex Wallabies Papworth, Poidevin, Fitzsimmons, Dwyer (who has called on all ARU execs. to resign) etc, others are also highlighting the current crisis in contact RU's regd. nos., decline in playing standards, Super Rugby crowds/ratings/team abolition, & the ARU's dire financial situation. RU is in FAR more difficulty than RL (which has a luxury $1.8 billion TV rights war chest, & very high TV ratings).

Mark Ella, Aust. RU legend & RU WC winning Wallaby, has told the Daily Telegraph on 5.5 that "to save RU from the abyss" in Australia, there must be an urgent joint meeting of the ARU, state bodies, Super teams, & GR organisations. In good faith negotiations, common cause must be found & implemented to protect RU from its unprecedented calamitous situation.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sp...s/news-story/859a0201bd8581e044e84bb7c466b369

(To overcome DT Paywall, go into Incognito; then click on Google; then input " rugby greats call for crisis summit as code lurches into the abyss")
Click to expand...
I am still dumbfounded on how Australian Rugby Union is in a dire situation. They are getting 50-60 million a year in tv rights yet there are only 5 Aussie teams in that Super Rugby comp. FFA only pulls 50-55 million a year, has a 10 team comp and manages to have some spare cash this year.
 
Freomaniac said:
I am still dumbfounded on how Australian Rugby Union is in a dire situation. They are getting 50-60 million a year in tv rights yet there are only 5 Aussie teams in that Super Rugby comp. FFA only pulls 50-55 million a year, has a 10 team comp and manages to have some spare cash this year.
Click to expand...

Soccer also sucks a lot of money upwards. When kids regos are $300+ a year, the money has to go somewhere.
 
Garlic muncher said:
Go back 20 years rugby and RL were different, the players were not as big and smaller players were an accepted part of the game.
Click to expand...

You have said you don't watch Rugby League so how is it that you're an authority on the game?

Please tell me how Bevan French who is one of the most exciting players to watch isn't accepted?
 
TigerCraig said:
Soccer also sucks a lot of money upwards. When kids regos are $300+ a year, the money has to go somewhere.
Click to expand...
and this is what pisses me off. Soccer rego costs $300. Another thing that pisses me off is that FFA will bring in over 100 million in revenue next season: At lest 50 million in TV rights, 40 million in ticket sales in the A-league by the clubs and Socceroos and sponsorships from big companies as well.
 
ringleader said:
You have said you don't watch Rugby League so how is it that you're an authority on the game?

Please tell me how Bevan French who is one of the most exciting players to watch isn't accepted?
Click to expand...

You certainly misconstrue everything, are you suggesting that smaller/smallish players are as accepted as they once were ?.

I grew up in Canberra, i have seen RL before and from my memory there were plenty of small players in RL, Sterling, Mortimer brothers, Toovey and the little bloke from QLD SOO Alfie smurf or whatever his name was.

Even if you dont watch the game intently, a general sports fan will hear news reports, general conversations regarding players and the game etc.

You probably wouldn't understand what a general sports fan was ?.

I would have thought it is accepted common knowledge that there are less little men in the game than previously.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport...26501fa22?sv=10960a7f5401d5c1678c22dc36be32cb

http://www.theroar.com.au/2014/12/08/can-save-little-man-rugby-league-extinction/
 
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