Autopsy AFL 2023 First Qualifying Final - Pies v Demons Thurs Sept 7th 7:20pm EST (MCG)

[Saint12]

Would've thought Saints/GWS on the Thursday at Marvel (our Home) under the roof and Dees/Coll at the G on Saturday arvo (should be a sunny day by then) would've been the best fixture

 

[LoungeLizard]

Massive advantage to Collingwood given their fans attend neither work nor school...

But attend enough games to help keep Melbourne in the comp.

 

[danster168]

Grundy may not fit the team structure but he is no spud

Sent from my SM-S908E using Tapatalk

well he can bask and crash but he's slow and has deplorable skills and decision making.

 

[juss]

This would have been perfect on a Saturday arvo in Spring weather with 95k+ there

Thursday night is good for a neutral watching on TV though, but a day final would've been great for this one.

There's players up in the air in terms of their fitness, and I feel in such a close game that's pivotal.

Very hard to tip without seeing who's not playing for each team and how important they are.

I can make a case for either team winning, a win or a loss to either wouldn't surprise me. Something tells me the Pies end of season form is a little shaky, and there are slight signs of perhaps they mistimed their run a bit and peaked slightly early, but then you consider they might just flick the switch with a couple of key players back.

The Demons have been sneaky under the radar, haven't had the same hype as Collingwood, Brisbane or even early Port did through the season, but have then quietly won 4 of the last 5 and secured that crucial top 4 spot, and what is effectively a neutral final at the MCG.

I think I'll tip the healthier side on the Thursday of the game.

 

[timokane]

Collingwood in this one and win it by 26 points.

We have all of our players back now not like on KB.

Collingwood to win for mine.

Starting to get into the swing of it too.

 

[Milux]

Should be a good game for a while, but the Pies will be too good and win by 30 points.

Footy is a funny thing. As I can't possibly see the pies winning. I think dees by 30.

 

[beerbandit]

I think the winner of this will go onto win the flag, just hope like f it’s my boys!

 

[HarryBeef]

A Carlton supporter gifted with an unearned slot on a Friday Night, because the AFL love the Blues. If you are OK with opening the season on a Thursday night vs Richmond why not do the same against the Swans in the Finals?

Okay I've just had a chat with the team and happy to report we're swapping the games around, turn up Friday and everything will be waiting for you.

 

[tiger_tough]

I still think the loss of Petty is going to come back to bite us. He's a hell of a player and his injury really changes our entire structure. I think the pies might get this one.

And Melksham too. The two guys you had in your forward line that love a contest.

I think pies by a couple of goals but wouldn't be surprised either way. Winner will go on to win the flag IMO.

 

[YeoShuey]

But last time Pies had Daicos who is missing, and is Moore confirmed to be back?

Because Moore and Daicos out are massive. Dees might be missing Fritsch from their line up and he scored 3 against the Pies.

I read Moore will be back. Apparently already training with their VFL team.

Daicos extremely unlikely but don’t think it would make too much of a difference as he was quiet last time. (Melbourne tagged him very well)

 

[South of the Yarra]

Pies have beaten the Dees 7 of the last 9 times. The two Dees wins were by 4 points this year (Elliott, De Goey and Sidebottom missing) and at the Gabba. Just can't see the Dees getting near the Pies.

 

[Jimi]

One for The History Buffs!

Attached below is Collingwood's record in finals vs other teams ranked by win %.

The bottom three are interesting as all loom as potential matchups this September for the Pies. Collingwood historically are Melbourne's bunnies in finals. Closely followed by Brisbane and Carlton.

Scott Pendlebury

10

Scott Pendlebury

Age

36

Ht

191cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

26.5

5star

K

13.2

5star

HB

13.3

5star

M

4.1

4star

T

4.9

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

12.9

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.3

3star

CL

3.6

4star

D

12.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

4.8

4star

M

5.8

5star

T

2.6

4star

is the only player from either Melbourne or Collingwood who was alive the last time these two sides met in the finals (1989).

 

[danster168]

Pies have beaten the Dees 7 of the last 9 times. The two Dees wins were by 4 points this year (Elliott, De Goey and Sidebottom missing) and at the Gabba. Just can't see the Dees getting near the Pies.

How could you honestly look at the last game and say 'Dees won by 4 points' and leave that as your final analysis of the game? We kicked 8 goals, 18 behinds in one of the worst set shot kicking displays in 15 years with simple miss after simple miss after simple miss. We smashed you all over the park and embarrassed your midfield. So don't give me this '4 points' nonsense. Even your own fans acknowledge that the 4 points wasn't a reflection of the domination.

Now I think the pies will win due to the loss of Petty and now Melksham. And even Oliver not returning to his best since his long lay off from injury.

 

[Geelong_Bisons_#36]

When do the tickets go on sale?

 

[Toump Ass]

We have all of our players back now not like on KB.

Nick Daicos is far and away your best player and he’s been ruled out already right?

 

[YeoShuey]

How could you honestly look at the last game and say 'Dees won by 4 points' and leave that as your final analysis of the game? We kicked 8 goals, 18 behinds in one of the worst set shot kicking displays in 15 years with simple miss after simple miss after simple miss. We smashed you all over the park and embarrassed your midfield. So don't give me this '4 points' nonsense. Even your own fans acknowledge that the 4 points wasn't a reflection of the domination.

Now I think the pies will win due to the loss of Petty and now Melksham. And even Oliver not returning to his best since his long lay off from injury.

Kicked 14 behinds actually as 4 of those were rushed behinds.

Only stat Melbourne dominated in that match were behinds kicked and hitouts. Even though it looked like Melbourne dominated throughout, if you check the stats (I’d recommend Footywire), it was a lot closer than meets the eye with Collingwood actually winning a lot of the stats.

 

[Toump Ass]

Pies have beaten the Dees 7 of the last 9 times.

What a completely useless statistic.

7 of the last 10 if you include both games in 2017 btw. Or 7 of the last 12 if you go back to the year before.

But don’t worry darling, Jack Watts retired a few ago now. He can’t hurt you anymore!!

 

[danster168]

Kicked 14 behinds actually as 4 of those were rushed behinds.

Only stat Melbourne dominated in that match were behinds kicked. Even though it looked like Melbourne dominated throughout, if you check the stats (I’d recommend Footywire), it was a lot closer than meets the eye with Collingwood actually winning a lot of the stats.

And how about the ones on the full or shots at goal that fell short. Dude, you're really going to look at stats to decide how a game went? Watch the game, not the stats screen. Look, I'm a very negative supporter, I'd be the first one to say that my club is playing like trash. But on that day, we demolished Collingwood. Composed guys like Daicos, Pendlebury and Moore etc. turned to water under the pressure.

 

[HBFlanker]

Demons have lucked out not having to travel for the first final.

Petracca is in rare air at the moment. Up there with Bont as the best player in the game.

Fritsch back up and about is big too. Tom Mcdonald

25

Tom Mcdonald

Age

31

Ht

195cm

Wt

101kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.4

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.7

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.9

4star

MG

261.8

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

0.6

1star

MG

135.6

2star

D

13.8

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

7.0

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.4

4star

would be a chance to play too.

For the pies, Moore comes back in, which is huge.

Demons by 20, just think they have enough to get over the line here.

 

[Xtreme]

Love Thursday night footy, but feel as though one of the elimination finals should be on Thursday night instead.

 

[RAPPA]

The winner will go on to win the premiership unless they massively $hit the bed in the PF.

Collingwood’s only out will potentially just be Naicos. Dees’ outs (Petty and Melksham) hurt more structurally.

McDonald and Grundy had good days out in the twos so will be interesting regarding Melksham’s replacement.

Prefer the Dees but think the pies will get it done.

 

[YeoShuey]

And how about the ones on the full or shots at goal that fell short. Dude, you're really going to look at stats to decide how a game went? Watch the game, not the stats screen. Look, I'm a very negative supporter, I'd be the first one to say that my club is playing like trash. But on that day, we demolished Collingwood. Composed guys like Daicos, Pendlebury and Moore etc. turned to water under the pressure.

I watched the game, but it has completely left my memory that I don’t remember any out of the full or scores falling short etc etc.

Stats are very important. They show that there is not much difference between the teams which were reflected by the end result. However, Collingwood had way less scoring shots which is an area that they need to fix.

As for Daicos, I’ve consistently said him being out won’t make a difference. Melbourne controlled him so well last time that it probably wouldn’t make a difference if he plays. Will now have a bigger problem with De Goey, Sidebottom, Howe, Ginnivan, McStay,Elliott etc all returning since the last match.

 

[danster168]

I watched the game, but it has completely left my memory that I don’t remember any out of the full or scores falling short etc etc.

Stats are very important. They show that there is not much difference between the teams which were reflected by the end result. However, Collingwood had way less scoring shots which is an area that they need to fix.

As for Daicos, I’ve consistently said him being out won’t make a difference. Melbourne controlled him so well last time that it probably wouldn’t make a difference if he plays. Will now have a bigger problem with De Goey, Sidebottom, Howe, Ginnivan, McStay,Elliott etc all returning since the last match.

Stats don't say anything. If you mention any stat, I can debunk it or explain it away. Why mention Ginnivan? He's barely even best 22. In fact he's often the chosen sub or not even in the team. But I agree, Collingwood have some good players returning. But you're not balancing your argument with the counters. No mention of Fritsch returning for us? No mention of one of the best players in the game in Clayton Oliver returning? Oliver is better than half of those players combined.

 

[YeoShuey]

Stats don't say anything. If you mention any stat, I can debunk it or explain it away. Why mention Ginnivan? He's barely even best 22. In fact he's often the chosen sub or not even in the team. But I agree, Collingwood have some good players returning. But you're not balancing your argument with the counters. No mention of Fritsch returning for us? No mention of one of the best players in the game in Clayton Oliver returning? Oliver is better than half of those players combined.

Ginnivan is an interesting one. I’d say he is best 22. Did well this week and kicked a few goals. Unsure but I think he will make a difference.

I would mention Fritsch returning for Melbourne except he played in the King’s Birthday Match so it is not a return. These players returning that I mentioned did not play King’s Birthday.

I did not mention Oliver returning in the post to you but I have mentioned Oliver returning in previous posts. He will make a difference but I don’t think it would be to the impact that Collingwood bringing these 6 players back will.

 

[ZionMig22]

Game will be won out of the Midfield

Dees by 12pts