Autopsy AFL 2023 First Qualifying Final - Pies v Demons Thurs Sept 7th 7:20pm EST (MCG)

[QPower]

two best teams. not my fault they are from victoria.

How have they performed against Brisbane? Lost 3 of the 4 games against them.

 

[danster168]

Ginnivan is an interesting one. I’d say he is best 22. Did well this week and kicked a few goals. Unsure but I think he will make a difference.

I would mention Fritsch returning for Melbourne except he played in the King’s Birthday Match so it is not a return. These players returning that I mentioned did not play King’s Birthday.

I did not mention Oliver returning in the post to you but I have mentioned Oliver returning in previous posts. He will make a difference but I don’t think it would be to the impact that Collingwood bringing these 6 players back will.

I'd also say he is best 22 but all year the Collingwood coaches haven't rated him. Since the anti-ducking rules have come in he hasn't been the same player because that honestly was his 1 wood. He had no other way of impacting games.

Fair call regarding Fritsch, I thought he didn't play last time but I was wrong.

True, but not to mention that Nick Daicos won't play (most likely) so that steadies the ship up a bit.

 

[YeoShuey]

I'd also say he is best 22 but all year the Collingwood coaches haven't rated him. Since the anti-ducking rules have come in he hasn't been the same player because that honestly was his 1 wood. He had no other way of impacting games.

Fair call regarding Fritsch, I thought he didn't play last time but I was wrong.

True, but not to mention that Nick Daicos won't play (most likely) so that steadies the ship up a bit.

I agree with you mostly.

As I have mentioned regarding Daicos, Melbourne controlled him so well last game that I don’t think it will make a difference whether he is in or out, and doesn’t really steady anything if the last match is anything to go by. Just my view on his absence from this match.

 

[Lethal09]

Collingwood have been the best team all year for a reason.

Pies by 18 Points.

 

[South of the Yarra]

What a completely useless statistic.

7 of the last 10 if you include both games in 2017 btw. Or 7 of the last 12 if you go back to the year before.

But don’t worry darling, Jack Watts retired a few ago now. He can’t hurt you anymore!!

Somebody is getting stressed.

 

[00Stinger]

Melbourne will be too physical for the brittle Pies again.

Dees by 27

 

[Ctracks]

Nick Daicos is far and away your best player and he’s been ruled out already right?

Yes, he is our best player.
He plays full back, ruck, tagger, full forward, off the bench, after point kick-in taker!
Probably won't play - I believe Graham Wright said as much - but you never know.
Anyhow, why you picking on Timmy?

 

[Toump Ass]

Anyhow, why you picking on Timmy?

Not picking on him at all, just pointing out that the Pies are not injury free.
And neither are we unfortunately

 

[charred_fate]

If both teams at their best, Dees win comfortably.

Dees smoked the Pies in general play last time, and regardless of that game, the Pies' midfield just can't hold a candle to the Demons'. Too many focus solely on Demons' out and out stars though. They have a lot of quality on virtually every line.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Not picking on him at all, just pointing out that the Pies are not injury free.
And neither are we unfortunately

Leave Timmy alone you monster

If Timmy says we're injury free then we're injury free son

 

[Magpie Since 1986]

Laughable Melbourne talking about injuries when we have literally the best player in the comp missing.

 

[No SPIN]

What a completely useless statistic.

7 of the last 10 if you include both games in 2017 btw. Or 7 of the last 12 if you go back to the year before.

But don’t worry darling, Jack Watts retired a few ago now. He can’t hurt you anymore!!

I suggest you go back and watch the Lever and May KB post game interviews - the relief on their faces and in the language they used reinforces the dominance of Coll over Melb.
May actually said “ when they started coming back I thought oh no, not again”

So Coll have no fears playing Melb - but the reverse is certainly not true.

Belief is everything in this game.
With a stronger side ( compared to KB) in RD22? last year, we hit the front then stopped Melb getting an I50 for the last 8 minutes of the game.

Let that sink in - Not ONE I50 for the last 8 minutes, when the game was on the line.

And how many I50 marks did Lever and May have for the entire game - ZERO!!!

I think we have the confidence and belief needed, based on past experience to get the job done.

 

[No SPIN]

Melbourne will be too physical for the brittle Pies again.

Dees by 27

They have to catch our guys first - our speed will be a huge advantage.

 

[Ingeniokinetic]

Normally the best match of the Finals is the Prelim, but the QF will be the heavy-weight clash this year, and possibly some of the hardest purest football played in decades. Trust the AFL to bugger it up and play it on a Thursday.

Anyone looking to history is kidding themselves, you think these kids care about anything other than the 'now' is delusional. Even drum and base is ancient history to these Millennial and Gen Z players. The coaches have them in exactly the right head space, Kings Birthday is old news. This game is about recent form and injuries only, anything else is media drivel for the easily amused.

1, When I look at the teams these are the perceived strengths IMHO, based on last two months and allowing for injuries.

Collingwood: esprit de corp 10/10, defense 9/10, midfield 8/10, forward 10/10, speed 9/10, fitness 9/10, 1% efforts 10/10, contest 9/10 (74/80)

Melbourne: esprit de corp 10/10, defense 10/10, midfield 9/10, forward 9/10(could argue 8), speed 8/10, fitness 10/10, 1% efforts 10/10, contest 10/10 (76/80)

2, Coaching, both serious coaches, Fly remade Collingwood in a season, is as likeable as Ted Lasso, (but Melbourne is Richmond AFC). Goodwin has done it hard, has ridden the lows when with Roos, had to change game plans several times, been sniped in the media and is resilient as all hell. I think he has a slight advantage because while he was always flint hard, he has learned to adapt and is more flexible on game day than he used to be and creative and honest at the selection committee. Not that Fly is not, just that these used to be weaknesses of Goodwin. Fly's has an amazing ability to inspire belief and miracle or all miracles made them likeable, that is up there with Christ and turn the other cheek stuff.

3, Venue, slight advantage Collingwood, more fans, noise of affirmation etc. but conditions nil.

4, Weather, if it is wet Collingwood, Melbourne needs the first touch of the ball, after gaining possession to be clean as we play with no margin for error on that 1st post contest disposal, get murdered if we turn it over and did it a lot in the wet this year, we used to be better as we were all contest a'la 2018 but have gone away from that to being more balanced inside/outside and lost our touch in the wet.

5, Form, Melbourne, constant adversity has just seen Melbourne never give up, great head space, whereas injuries have cruelled Colligwoods system a bit. JDG is a match winner every bit as good as Petracca, but some of those losses were not just about injuries. We have the defenders to cover Elliot and JDG, am sure you can chill Oliver.

I have Viney as the guy who will monster Collingwood around the contest, loves a big game, has been in great form and smashed Sydney players in a way that looked like it was choreographed on WWE, I don't see who on Collingwood has that, Maynard is brutal no doubt but he's not everywhere like Viney. I also expect Pickett to bring his lethal attitude and pressure defenders' disposals and cause defensive 50 turnovers, with maybe more midfield time. This physicality I think will give Melbourne the edge. Personally would like Viney to cannonball Cox's ribs early before Cox does that to Max. Cox has been sneaky good at (il)legally fragging Max and will be mega annoyed if that is allowed to happen in the QF.

Where I think Collingwood can get us is if they get their running game going, they are very slick in the air, and I am nervous about what Howe can do linking the Pies up and I think the Pies are totally capable of coming up with a strategy that unpicks us.

That said I think we have more rebounding players, May / Lever are in rare air, GAF they are not AA, backed up by Rivers/Hibbo/McVee and Salem(who mega physical against Swans making up for his drop off in kicking accuracy). This will be the point of difference, better at keeping it in fwd 50, better generally at rebounding.

So have written too much, pot away, can't wait for the game.

Demons by 2 goals.

 

[PieLebo87]

And how about the ones on the full or shots at goal that fell short. Dude, you're really going to look at stats to decide how a game went? Watch the game, not the stats screen. Look, I'm a very negative supporter, I'd be the first one to say that my club is playing like trash. But on that day, we demolished Collingwood. Composed guys like Daicos, Pendlebury and Moore etc. turned to water under the pressure.

I remember KB, and the scoreline was not a true reflection of Melbourne’s dominance that day.

I also remember seeing so many uncharacteristic mistakes from generally composed heads. One thing I can say is that I would be extremely surprised if that was to happen again.

You just don’t often see Pendles or Daicos not being clean with the pill twice against the same opposition in a season.

If anything, I think it would be near on impossible for Melbourne to replicate what they did to Collingwood on KB, and I honestly say that without bias.

 

[Truetiger]

This should be the better game of the 4. Looking forward to it, can go either way. Collingwood 18pts

 

[Truetiger]

Ridiculous for this to be on Thursday.

Every year week 1 final on a Thursday absolutely ridiculous.

 

[Macca180]

How do you pick this.

This is going to be brutal high pressure football.

Winner is practically home.

 

[JyeDye]

Dees by 50. Pies show off their comeback kings still cutting down the 80 point 3QT margin.

 

[00Stinger]

They have to catch our guys first - our speed will be a huge advantage.

thats assuming that you can even win the ball though

 

[Toump Ass]

Belief is everything in this game.
With a stronger side ( compared to KB) in RD22? last year, we hit the front then stopped Melb getting an I50 for the last 8 minutes of the game.

Madness to think Round 22 last year matters. We’re a different team.

 

[Dez!]

Going to be a ripper game, can't wait even with the AFL and their ******* scheduling.

 

[danster168]

I remember KB, and the scoreline was not a true reflection of Melbourne’s dominance that day.

I also remember seeing so many uncharacteristic mistakes from generally composed heads. One thing I can say is that I would be extremely surprised if that was to happen again.

You just don’t often see Pendles or Daicos not being clean with the pill twice against the same opposition in a season.

If anything, I think it would be near on impossible for Melbourne to replicate what they did to Collingwood on KB, and I honestly say that without bias.

No I agree. The odds of Melbourne replicating that dominance is very slim. I was only talking about that game in particular. However Melbourne are also very unlikely to kick that poorly at goal next time.

I think the pies will win though as I think thr Petty and Melksham losses are too much to handle as our forward line was already a dogs breakfast.

 

[timokane]

Word around that Bailey frish has done his calf has got a badly strained calf and strained knee as well and had scans on it yesterday and likly to miss the pies
match.

Also kozzie pickett had developed a quad strain since the sydney game and will be assessed early next week.

others gawn is having scans as a precaution as well on his knees he did cop a knock to them late in the swans game.

Stay tuned.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Laughable Melbourne talking about injuries when we have literally the best player in the comp missing.

Bontempelli plays for the Pies?