Autopsy AFL 2023 Grand Final - Pies vs Lions Sat Sept 30th 2:30pm EST (MCG)

[Algorithmic Hot Takes]

Biggest ever comeback in a grand final at 3/4 is 24 points in 1984. They’d want to be a bit closer I’d reckon.

Maybe, but it's all mental. They'll both be knackered at that stage with the heat, in this scenario.
The crowd starts "Coooollingwoood, Coooollingwoood", get a quick goal or two, and tired Lions could try and save it, which won't end well if 20 points up with 15 minutes to go...

 

[kranky al]

Collingwood. They will sustain the pressure on Brisbane unlike other teams have managed to do.

Based on last night that’s hard to deny.

Jeez I hope it’s a cracker.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Lets just be thankful it's not Carlton-Collingwood

Would've been insufferable. Quarter time I was about ready to make impromptu long weekend camping plans..

 

[PieLebo87]

Up against it but we always seem to match up well against them. Going for 7 in a row against them but MCG hoodoo over our heads. Regardless this will be my first Granny that I can remember, was only young early 2000's so i'm taking this in!

I still remember 2002 and it still stings like hell. 2003, not so much, as we got belted from start to finish.

Saturday will be pure joy for the winner, and real pain for the loser as there is history.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Would've been insufferable. Quarter time I was about ready to make impromptu long weekend camping plans..

Lions can't start like that next week, doubt the Pies will be as wasteful as Carlton were

 

[wills2g]

Geelong did it in 2011.

Yeah it's been a while. Although they havent played at the G this year which is why I think Collingwood.

 

[10571z]

You’ve got to be in to win it and we are in with a chance.

 

[Milux]

You’ve got to be in to win it and we are in with a chance.

Precisely how I feel.

 

[PieLebo87]

I’m completely clutching at straws for any reason I can find for a Collingwood win.

Since the 2004 Grand Final, Lions have played at the MCG 35 times for 5 wins, 1 draw and 29 losses.

They’re currently going at 2 wins and 4 losses against the Pies in that range.

 

[PCORF]

Go you Lions! Make it 3 for 3 vs the Pies. They have however struggled at the MCG since their last GF but knocked Melbourne out last year before getting destroyed by Geelong. Also dropped the 2009 semi to the Bulldogs the night before the Right in front of me game.

But in reality I hope it is a great battle regardless of the outcome.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

I’m completely clutching at straws for any reason I can find for a Collingwood win.

Since the 2004 Grand Final, Lions have played at the MCG 35 times for 5 wins, 1 draw and 29 losses.

They’re currently going at 2 wins and 4 losses against the Pies in that range.

So they've got a paltry 15.7% winning record at the G but that includes a whopping 33% record against us, they're more than twice as likely to beat us there than another team, that does nothing for my confidence sorry

 

[justlookingaround]

I feel pretty confident that Lions will win.
They've already beaten Pies twice this year and have a fair bit more scoring power at the moment. Already beat their MCG hoodoo in a final last year and will have tremendous confidence having come back from a 5 goal handicap.
Hope it's a cracker and reckon it will be.

 

[Peacock]

When I think of Collingwood vs Brisbane I used to think of Voss and Burns, now my first thought is that Brisbane dude ripping his jumper off and throwing it in the air.

 

[Macca180]

I think Collingwood just get us.

 

[Corrupt_]

Will be cold pies and over by 3QT if lions capitalise on inside 50's with efficiency - tough ask in a granny obviously but no one seems to be aware we spanked them both times this year convincingly, final scoreboard not indicative. Nonetheless Lions at the mercy of the collingwood system and footy gods if Moore and co get on top + finals pressure, in that case another single digit win is almost guaranteed and may be the most likely scenario. Pies game simply built for September. No faith at all in that pie forward line to kick over 12 goals, shame as a high scoring shootout would be epic. Winner... unclear, method for winning.. very predictable.

 

[Dan26]

My early take is:

• Collingwood havn't been in good form. They lost 3 of their last 5 home and away games.
• Collingwood havn't scored more than 60 in a final (scored 60 and 58 in their two matches)
• The "expected score" stat from Champion Data has Collingwood losing to Melbourne by 18 and GWS by 4 based on the stats from those matches
• Brisbane has beaten Collingwood twice already and scored 116 and 124 versus a team that hasn't scored more than 60 in the finals.
• Collingwood is 0-3 in Grand Finals versus Non-Vic teams, showing that any advantage the Vic side has is massively diluted on Grand Final day due to the more even crowd support.

Surely Brisbane, based on any sort of historical data and trends win this match. There is no recent evidence based on Collingwood's recent form and scoring power (or lack of it) that they win this match. I mean, when was the last time a team won the premiership after not scoring more than 60 in their first two finals? Has it ever happened? Good on them if they prove this wrong, but it's hard to make a case for Collingwood on form, or data.

 

[Corrupt_]

My early take is:

• Collingwood havn't been in good form. They lost 3 of their last 5 home and away games.
• Collingwood havn't scored more than 60 in a final (scored 60 and 58 in their two matches)
• The "expected score" stat from Champion Data has Collingwood losing to Melbourne by 18 and GWS by 4 based on the stats from those matches
• Brisbane has beaten Collingwood twice already and scored 116 and 124 versus a team that hasn't scored more than 60 in the finals.
• Collingwood is 0-3 in Grand Finals versus Non-Vic teams, showing that any advantage the Vic side has is massively diluted on Grand Final day due to the more even crowd support.

Surely Brisbane, based on any sort of historical data and trends win this match. There is no recent evidence based on Collingwood's recent form and scoring power (or lack of it) that they win this match. I mean, when was the last time a team won the premiership after not scoring more than 60 in their first two finals? Has it ever happened? Good on them if they prove this wrong, but it's hard to make a case for Collingwood on form, or data.

Collingwoods intangible ability to win close games with a game plan september proof is the biggest factor imo. but yes, while deserved favourites pies fans should look to allocate some mental preparation for a disappointing blow out.

 

[Worm4]

McInerney to give Brisbane silver service in the ruck. Cox is serviceable but he is like a newborn giraffe.
Collingwood to bring up no 28 in fine style

 

[jode]

27 degrees next Saturday

Very hot - surely that will suit Brisbane??

 

[M Malice]

If you are not a Pies supporter and not supporting the Lions this Saturday afternoon you are a bum.

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

I'm hoping for a good game. I reckon the Lions will shade it, and add to Collingwoods ever growing collection of grand final defeats.

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

Which they will. I know the Eagles dragged it back in 18 but Brisbane aren’t that good.

No way mate. I'm expecting a close game, and hopefully yet another grand final defeat for the Pies.

 

[Lethal09]

2007 repeat on the cards. Lions will come out asleep and be 5 goals down at quarter time, no road back.

I hope this does happen

Collingwood 24.19.163 - Brisbane 6.8.44

 

[Blackhawk42]

All I know is this...

Second year in a row that Hawthorn are undefeated for the season against the eventual premier.


2018 vibes here for the result though. A purely neutral viewing experience. Just have to hope for a great game now.

 

[beerbandit]

Collingwood v Brisbane. The 2 best teams all year head to head for the ultimate prize. Bit of history between the 2 sides as well.

I think the Pies owe em 1 or 2!!

 

[Gasometer]

Might need to get some of the Foxtel Commentators into the Ch 7 box