Preview AFL Rd 17 - Coll vs Carlton - Prematch Discussion, DaVe86's Preview post 138, Teams post 236

[mattys123]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Also, a question from someone who hasn't lived in Melbourne for long...is there any difference between Carl v Coll at MCG, where one or the other is the home team, in terms of crowd support numbers etc?

Not a lot of difference, the first game of the season is usually the biggest drawing game, no matter whose home game it is, but obviously with both teams near the top this year, both games have been sellouts.

Usually if it's a Pies home game the split would be something like 65%/35% our favour, but if it's a Carlton home game it comes in a fair bit, maybe even towards a 55/45 split, still in favour of the Pies.

Will be a massive crowd, 2 factors that may keep the crowd down a little are the weather (although the forecast looks ok at the moment) and the live TV coverage, especially for those who may have bought tickets months ago, or those in bad seats.

As for any complacency on Collingwood's behalf, I can't see it happening, the occasion of a massive game, live on TV around Australia almost guarantees both sides will not drop their intensity one bit at any stage, plus the fact that Collingwood have 6 premiership players waiting to return in the next few weeks, which places massive pressure on the players selected in the 22 to perform week in, week out.

I'd expect a crowd just over 90K, and a 7-8 goal win by the pies, with Johnson the only likely in, probably for Fasolo, who would be unlucky IMO.

 

[Swooop]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Not a lot of difference, the first game of the season is usually the biggest drawing game, no matter whose home game it is, but obviously with both teams near the top this year, both games have been sellouts.

Usually if it's a Pies home game the split would be something like 65%/35% our favour, but if it's a Carlton home game it comes in a fair bit, maybe even towards a 55/45 split, still in favour of the Pies.


Thanks matty for the crowd %age estimates, I didn't know by how much that would affect things.

And your right i'm sure, the pressure to keep your spot plus the huge TV audience, they'll all be at their peak i'm sure.

 

[Paddywhackers]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

We are going to belt them. Absolutely belt them!

Garlett, Betts and Walker will get slaughter by whoever defenders we put on them, who, over 09,10,11 will probably all be AA defenders, four could make the cut this year.

This is an amazing side, and the Blues are ordinary!

 

[Avatar]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

As for any complacency on Collingwood's behalf, I can't see it happening, the occasion of a massive game, live on TV around Australia almost guarantees both sides will not drop their intensity one bit at any stage, plus the fact that Collingwood have 6 premiership players waiting to return in the next few weeks, which places massive pressure on the players selected in the 22 to perform week in, week out.

I'd expect a crowd just over 90K, and a 7-8 goal win by the pies, with Johnson the only likely in, probably for Fasolo, who would be unlucky IMO.

I keep coming back to this point when thinking how we will go each week.
Even the premiership players who get a game really have to prove themselves again, a few of them have been out a while and the guys taking their places have played well. This competitiveness for spots should see us maintain a high level of play from here on out. No one can afford to go about it anywhere below 100% and I wouldn't expect them to.

Simply I believe we will out-work(fitness), out-rest(rotations), and out-play(skill) Carlton and get a comfortable win. We don't have as huge an advantage as we did against NM and Carlton have played enough at the G this year to know how to play it well. There certainly is a chance that they will play their absolute best and get clearances and quick opportunities up forward but the way our backline is playing is sublime at the moment so we shouldn't be too concerned about that.

 

[Sin City]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Haha! I like how Carlton keep talking him up and then always try to use him to tag Swan and Swan ends up with the 2 Brownlow votes (Judd 3 votes).

Righto, but Swan is a bloody good player who does that to most taggers. Carrazzo has still done an excellent job on plenty of good players including Ablett.

 

[Optimax]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Righto, but Swan is a bloody good player who does that to most taggers. Carrazzo has still done an excellent job on plenty of good players including Ablett.

Carrazzo is a useless hack

 

[Poseidon]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

We come into this game with totally opposite formlines from the week before.

We come in after a 117 pt drubbing.

They come in after a slightly unexpected loss.

Coming off an unexpected loss is usually the perfect entree into next week's game, whereby you'd expect every player to be at their most switched on and 'come to play' mode.

Conversely, after a stroll in the park win ( which our's was on paper, but I didn't think was so much so on field??) players may be forgiven for entering the arena with a slight swagger in their step, a trifle overconfident perhaps..

Anyone see a possible concern there?

I was thinking today about how we could possibly muster up a win and this was the only way I could see it happening. The Blues lads being fired up and angry like they were last week, but of course you guys are polar opposites to the likes of Richmond.

As you said, the Pies are extremely well-drilled and professional, can't see Malthouse letting them get cocky or coast through the game.

I hate to sound like a Tigers supporter but I'd be happy with us making it extremely hard for you and at least break even with the result we produced in round 3. If we can do that then I won't hit the panic button.

Hopefully it's a cracker.

Oh, and 3 votes - C. Judd.

 

[Sin City]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Carrazzo is a useless hack

Well, he's not. You don't win club B&Fs, have 40+ possession games or even play as many games as he has if you're a useless hack. He's by no means one of the more gifted players going around but he's a credit to himself with what he's achieved so far and is now a very important part of our midfield, being able to rack up the ball while shutting down a good player.

 

[Swooop]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Well, he's not. You don't win club B&Fs, have 40+ possession games or even play as many games as he has if you're a useless hack. He's by no means one of the more gifted players going around but he's a credit to himself with what he's achieved so far and is now a very important part of our midfield, being able to rack up the ball while shutting down a good player.

Yeah, he's one of these players who divides opinion more than most, bit like Stanton from the Bombers, Jones from Saints.

He certainly gets lots of the ball and usually finds a teammate, but maybe more than most, he can turn it over when not under pressure.

He is obviously rated by most at Carlton, because he's rarely out of the team and getting a spot in their midfield would mean you're a pretty decent footballer!

 

[Harry O]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Well, he's not. You don't win club B&Fs, have 40+ possession games or even play as many games as he has if you're a useless hack. He's by no means one of the more gifted players going around but he's a credit to himself with what he's achieved so far and is now a very important part of our midfield, being able to rack up the ball while shutting down a good player.

And you wont win a flag while his type (and Armfield, Joseph, Ellard etc) are in your best 22.

 

[Sin City]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

And you wont win a flag while his type (and Armfield, Joseph, Ellard etc) are in your best 22.

Well currently Armfield and Joseph are not in the best 22 but that line has been used about players from every premiership team in living memory. Have a think about how many people said it about certain Collingwood players. Plenty worse players than Carrazzo have played in premierships, every team needs their role players. You should know this, the way your lesser lights perform their roles is one of your biggest strengths.

 

[blueblooded]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Well currently Armfield and Joseph are not in the best 22 but that line has been used about players from every premiership team in living memory. Have a think about how many people said it about certain Collingwood players. Plenty worse players than Carrazzo have played in premierships, every team needs their role players. You should know this, the way your lesser lights perform their roles is one of your biggest strengths.

Fair call, i remember Toovey being booed before it became the Tooov, not many thought he'd amount to much, Leigh Brown got the chop from North, amazing what happens when you play in a good football team...

Anyway not here to back up AJ or Armfield because they are garbage but Carrazzo is unfairly criticised at times has been more than serviceable..

What is the go with Ben Johnson and Didak this week?? I'm hearing the Collingwood players are touting this one as the easiest game of the round given our outs, that comes from a good source mind you...hopefully our boys can stick up a good fight! The Collingwood players have every right to be overconfident they are a super footy team and good luck to them, i actually like Collingwood the team...great to watch, super players...the club on the other hand '

 

[Quicky]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Johnson is a near cert to return to the side. It's been reported that Didak is a chance. Theres a school of thought however that even if he was fit to return his form up until his injury doesn't warrant automatic inclusion. It may be beneficial for Dids to come back through the magoos.

 

[Swooop]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

I'm hearing the Collingwood players are touting this one as the easiest game of the round given our outs, that comes from a good source mind you...hopefully our boys can stick up a good fight! The Collingwood players have every right to be overconfident they are a super footy team and good luck to them, i actually like Collingwood the team...great to watch, super players...the club on the other hand '

I've just checked the bookies odds for this week's games...and from these you'd expect our boys to be pretty confident ( though everyone knows full well anything can happen!!)


Tigers 1.15 to beat GC 7.20
Pies 1.18 to beat Blues 6.20
Melb 1.27 to beat Port 4.40
Swans 1.34 to beat Freo 3.85 in Sydney
Dogs 1.41 to beat NM 3.30
Ess. 1.67 to beat Crows 2.44 in Adelaide
Saints 1.88 to beat WCE 2.12 at Etihad

I guess our guys will be confident, but the good thing is that they don't ever seem to allow confidence to translate to complacency, which would be the real worry...they still seem to go just as hard most times.

Trying to think back to when it looked like they played complacently, I think possibly against Melbourne last year when we fell over the line by one point Queen's Birthday in May...though in fairness Melbourne played fantastically that day.

Ratts On The Couch implied to my thinking, he'd tag a few, and thereafter it would be 'shock and awe,' pace ++ on the forward line, numbers ahead of the ball, in a calculated gamble to pull off an upset.

Think he realises you're unlikely to beat us playing conservatively, trying to chip it around the press.

Reckon that's how you'll play and I also reckon it will be a much closer contest than most expect.

 

[vjknight]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

with cololololins comments in todays HS is it appropriate we all take a box of tissues to the game ?

 

[mdc]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Fair call, i remember Toovey being booed before it became the Tooov, not many thought he'd amount to much, Leigh Brown got the chop from North, amazing what happens when you play in a good football team...

Anyway not here to back up AJ or Armfield because they are garbage but Carrazzo is unfairly criticised at times has been more than serviceable..

See, I'd prefer to have AJ or Armfield because at least those guys won't get enough of the ball to hurt your side in any serious way, and they add pace.

Carrazzo has been handy for Carlton over the journey, and maybe you still don't have anyone adequate to replace him, but him getting the ball 23 times simply does not hurt sides, except occasionally Carlton. It'd be one thing if he was getting a ton of contested ball, but he doesn't, he plays as a linkman basically, and his kicking skills simply aren't good enough to justify playing that role.

 

[lgarth80]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

I smell a trap, Carlton laying it nicely and then coming out with a typical performance.

Not saying that our players shouldn't be up for it, but if our players turn up as if the job is already done, our opponents will get a quick start, and momentum, and their tails up. There are not many better teams in the comp when they are going full guns blazing than Carlton, regardless of what has at times been average defensive intensity.

I can see a win, would love a complete and utter rogering of our fierce rivals, but I think that the Blues will come to play and we better be ready for them.

I'm also a touch concerned the arrogance our supporters are starting to show is going to rub off on the players. I'd like to keep things under wraps until we can get another flag out of this side. Eras aren't to be wasted. Am I being greedy?

I am very pleased reading about Buckley leaving the North game early to watch Carlton. Shows the right mindset.

Would like to see BJ and Macaffer come in earlier rather than later to avoid a Medhurst situation.

 

[Yidaki]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

I smell a trap, Carlton laying it nicely and then coming out with a typical performance.

Not saying that our players shouldn't be up for it, but if our players turn up as if the job is already done, our opponents will get a quick start, and momentum, and their tails up. There are not many better teams in the comp when they are going full guns blazing than Carlton, regardless of what has at times been average defensive intensity.

I can see a win, would love a complete and utter rogering of our fierce rivals, but I think that the Blues will come to play and we better be ready for them.

I'm also a touch concerned the arrogance our supporters are starting to show is going to rub off on the players. I'd like to keep things under wraps until we can get another flag out of this side. Eras aren't to be wasted. Am I being greedy?

I am very pleased reading about Buckley leaving the North game early to watch Carlton. Shows the right mindset.

Would like to see BJ and Macaffer come in earlier rather than later to avoid a Medhurst situation.

Personally, I believe the Pies will have the right mindset for this game. They are playing their archrivals and will not give one inch. We just need a fast start and put some score board pressure, and the Blues will falter. = Happy Days.

 

[vjknight]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

weather forecast has improved for saturday - fine, light winds, 16c.

with their talls decimated, this could be quite entertaining.

 

[Blue1980]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Might have already been stated here, but I think we should rest anyone with a niggle against your guys, cop a belting and move on (a la Freo R21 last year)

No point playing anyone with a niggle, without Jamison/Waite we are a slim chance at best.

The Pies are simply too strong everywhere, so for us I would:

Out: Scotland, Judd, Russell, Kruezer, Betts, Simpson, Waite, Murphy, Gibbs, Yarran, Robinson

In: Curnow, Armfield, Touhy, Setanta, Lucas, Austin, Watson, Carrazzo, Davies, O'Keefe

This would thoroughly piss off the AFL/MCC though.

 

[Jesus Baulks]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Might have already been stated here, but I think we should rest anyone with a niggle against your guys, cop a belting and move on (a la Freo R21 last year)

No point playing anyone with a niggle, without Jamison/Waite we are a slim chance at best.

The Pies are simply too strong everywhere, so for us I would:

Out: Scotland, Judd, Russell, Kruezer, Betts, Simpson, Waite, Murphy, Gibbs, Yarran, Robinson

In: Curnow, Armfield, Touhy, Setanta, Lucas, Austin, Watson, Carrazzo, Davies, O'Keefe

This would thoroughly piss off the AFL/MCC though.

Embarrassing. When exactly did Carlton and its supporters decide to roll over and give up. You guys used to be a team with a bit of heart

I'm thinking the change over must've happened right about the time you decided to deliberately lose matches to get better draft picks. Seems like that culture of losing has just stuck around since.

 

[Blue1980]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Embarrassing. When exactly did Carlton and its supporters decide to roll over and give up. You guys used to be a team with a bit of heart

I'm thinking the change over must've happened right about the time you decided to deliberately lose matches to get better draft picks. Seems like that culture of losing has just stuck around since.

Being realistic, at this current stage we need all hands on deck to match Collingwood, we have a fair few guys with niggles from all reports.

I would rather cop a belting this week and then come out with a freshened side with more chance of winning matches for the rest of the year, rather than have a pointless 'honourable' loss.

Hardly think its losing culture, mind you there is no way the club will do that, due to it being such a large blockbuster and a non-comptetitve drubbing wouldn't be good from a membership/sponsorship/promotional point of view in such a marquee game.

Re culture of losing, Pies tanking in 2005 doesn't seem to have effected the culture much.

 

[Scodog10]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Might have already been stated here, but I think we should rest anyone with a niggle against your guys, cop a belting and move on (a la Freo R21 last year)

No point playing anyone with a niggle, without Jamison/Waite we are a slim chance at best.

The Pies are simply too strong everywhere, so for us I would:

Out: Scotland, Judd, Russell, Kruezer, Betts, Simpson, Waite, Murphy, Gibbs, Yarran, Robinson

In: Curnow, Armfield, Touhy, Setanta, Lucas, Austin, Watson, Carrazzo, Davies, O'Keefe

This would thoroughly piss off the AFL/MCC though.

Oh please do this! With us having GC the week after it would mean that we'd be a solid chance to equal Geelong's record of 3 consecutive 100 point wins and also to record greatest winning margins against clubs in 3 consecutive weeks

 

[Blue1980]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Oh please do this! With us having GC the week after it would mean that we'd be a solid chance to equal Geelong's record of 3 consecutive 100 point wins and also to record greatest winning margins against clubs in 3 consecutive weeks

If you guys weren't one of our two greatest rivals, and playing interstate, it could happen.

Mind you, you guys could fight fire with fire, and do the same

Two VFL strength sides battling it out at the G in front of 90,000

Im guessing we will give it a shot, with what we have available, and lose by about 6 goals.

 

[PooMonkey]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

You guys "should" smack us around the park...

We are low in form, and our KPP stocks are shot...

In saying that...these games have the ability to generate some great underdog efforts, but I highly doubt it...

I am just looking forward to watching Gibbs V Pendlebury in the middle...These two are going to have some great battles over the next 10 years!~